Hillary Rodham Clinton

Newsreal: Starr chamber

Washington journalist Mollie Dickenson investigates the unsavory political origins of Kenneth Starr's endless inquisition of President Clinton.

Independent counsel Kenneth Starr’s interminable investigation of President Clinton began as a political dirty trick cooked up in the George Bush White House in an 11th-hour attempt to defeat Clinton and win Bush’s reelection. This political scheme involved generating a bogus criminal referral that charged the Clintons with financial crimes in the Whitewater affair, and then improperly using the power of the presidency to get the Department of Justice and the Resolution Trust Corporation to act on that referral. Subsequent criminal referrals naming the Clintons, which led to the appointment of a Whitewater independent counsel, were equally politically inspired.

This startling and complex story emerges from reporting, statements and sworn testimony produced by the Whitewater congressional committees, the significance of which has never been fully reported nor put into context. The facts clearly show that the investigation of Clinton, which has dragged on for over four years and has now culminated in the sordid Monica Lewinsky allegations, was from the very beginning politically motivated. They also show that Kenneth Starr’s title of “independent” counsel is ludicrous. Starr, a Bush administration official and determined enemy of Clinton’s, came into his office with the intent of undermining the Clinton presidency. Starr’s political motivations have been widely commented upon. But completely overlooked has been his role in covering up the Bush administration’s dirty tricks — the very dirty tricks that gave rise to the endless investigation over which he now presides. The real scandal is how the nation’s elite media have failed to explore the unsavory political underpinnings of the Whitewater investigation, swallowing unskeptically whatever Starr’s office leaks to them.

Jan. 20 marked the fourth anniversary of the appointment of an independent counsel to investigate Bill and Hillary Clinton’s 20-year-old investment in rural Arkansas property and other subsequent matters now known as “Whitewater.” After four years of intensive investigations by Starr and his predecessor, the office of the independent counsel had brought no charges of illegality against the president or first lady. The very next day, however, Jan. 21, the Washington Post broke the story that Starr had evidence alleging that President Clinton might have committed or suborned perjury in his Jan. 17 testimony in the Paula Jones case. The country has been immersed in a media frenzy ever since.

To date, Whitewater independent counsels have spent $40 million of taxpayers’ money. The Republican House and Senate have each held two lengthy and expensive sets of Whitewater hearings, one deliberately extended into June 1996. Throughout that campaign year, news media in Washington and New York were abuzz with rumors that at the very least, Hillary Clinton was going to be indicted. For what? For something, was the vague answer. And still, Starr made no charges of wrongdoing by the president or first lady. Indeed, once Clinton was re-elected Starr waited three months, announced his resignation and tried to slip quietly out of town, heading for an academic post at Pepperdine University in Malibu, Calif. “Hey, it was only politics,” was the message. But he reversed himself days later when a media firestorm erupted.

Today we know that Starr became even more determined to dig something up on Clinton to justify his costly investigation. Now, as the possibility of a constitutional crisis looms, an examination of just how and where the charges against the Clintons began is imperative.

The evidence shows that Whitewater began with the Bush White House’s attempt to use the federal bureaucracy against Clinton in the 1992 election, and included collusion with a Republican banking investigator at the Resolution Trust Corporation, the agency created to oversee the liquidation of failed S&Ls, with a deep enmity toward Clinton.

The evidence shows further that, since his first days as Whitewater independent counsel in 1994, Starr has been using his position to cover up the improper and possibly illegal actions of high Bush White House officials and Bush’s attorney general against then-Gov. Clinton in the final weeks of the 1992 presidential campaign. By virtue of his office, Starr has been able to continue that coverup while relentlessly pursuing President Clinton ever since.

Through the unlimited power of his office, the former appointee of both the Reagan and Bush administrations has also been able to expand and add to his investigations. In an attempt to defeat Clinton in 1996, Starr withheld his report on Vincent Foster’s suicide (something Foster’s family had accepted on the day of his death) until after the election. He has continually delved into the daily operation of the Clinton White House and kept the Clintons under constant suspicion of having committed financial crimes. And now, finally, Starr is using his unchecked power to discredit Clinton once and for all in an audacious personal strike at the president.

Just as Starr used his office to cover up Republican wrongdoing in the 1992 presidential election, he has also taken steps to cover up the activities of the one person who knows how Starr came to insert himself into the Paula Jones suit against President Clinton. By immunizing informant Linda Tripp, Starr is protecting her both from prosecution and from the media. Starr also prevented Tripp from testifying under oath in the Jones trial, keeping her story and the true nature of her link to him hidden.

Hillary Clinton believes this vitriol is coming from the Republican right wing, but sworn testimony reveals that Starr’s tactics are part of a much broader Republican political strategy for which Starr is the front man.

That a man with so many clear conflicts of interest was chosen to be independent counsel in the first place begs much closer scrutiny than Starr has heretofore been given. In the context of today’s firestorm over Lewinsky, Tripp and Jones, it is important to remember just what Starr was doing at the moment he was given the job of independent counsel.

In July 1994, Starr was publicly opposing presidential immunity for Clinton in the Jones suit and was advising Jones’ lawyers on that suit and writing a friend-of-the-court brief on Jones’ behalf. At the same moment, Starr was also avidly seeking the job of Whitewater independent counsel. Just days later, on Aug. 5, a three-judge panel dominated by Republican appointees chose Starr to replace the widely respected Robert Fiske, who had been in the job since that January.

Last month, three and a half years later, Starr came full circle when he succeeded in marrying the Jones civil case to his alleged “sex scandal” investigation of Clinton by using the overreaching, apparently illegal tactic of secretly taping Lewinsky and bullying her to secretly record conversations with Clinton and Vernon Jordan. These tactics, which have been criticized by lawyers and the public alike, have hugely and notoriously expanded Starr’s role as an unelected and unaccountable grand inquisitor of the president and Hillary Clinton. His continual subpoenas escalate the stakes daily.

Iran-contra independent counsel Lawrence Walsh said recently on TV, “Kenneth Starr’s injecting himself into Clinton’s private (Jones) civil case is grossly unfair to the president.” Walsh, a self-described “Reagan Republican,” recently added in the New York Review of Books: “Ordinarily, prosecutors do not, as Starr is now doing, investigate perjury in a civil action while that action is pending. In 60 years of practice, I have never known this to happen … Starr’s somewhat sanctimonious pronouncement at his recent press conference that he was interested in ‘truth’ seems to reveal an overblown conception of his responsibility.”

Yet, despite extensive coverage of Lewinsky, Tripp and Jones, very little attention is being given to Starr’s background and motivation. Why did Starr so eagerly, according to friends, put his hand up for this job? And why was Fiske, also a Republican, replaced by this very partisan member of Bush’s administration? Why did Starr then start all over, investigating things that Fiske had thoroughly probed?

These are disturbing questions, and the answers to them are far more disturbing.

The story begins in March 1992, when the New York Times
reported that Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton and
wife Hillary had invested in rural development land with James
McDougal, owner of a failed savings and loan. “Clinton joined S&L
operator in an Ozark real-estate venture,” said the headline, but
the story obfuscated that McDougal didn’t buy the S&L, Madison Guaranty, until four years later, nor that, by March 1992, Madison had already
been investigated by three federal agencies. Furthermore, McDougal had already been tried and acquitted on criminal charges. Nevertheless, at the
Resolution Trust Corporation, an official named L. Jean Lewis was assigned to reinvestigate Madison. Lewis’ supervisor at the RTC, Richard Iorio, testified to Congress last year that her assignment was in response to the Times
story. But that was a gross glossing over of why she was really
chosen for this job.

Lewis was by no means impartial. According to a letter
that surfaced later during the Senate hearings, she had written to
a friend in February 1992 that Clinton was a “lying
bastard.” Although she had previously worked in a bank, Lewis was
neither a civil servant nor a trained investigator. But the Bush
administration had billions to spend on the S&L crisis, and it
sought Republicans for as many jobs as possible, creating a huge
political fiefdom with taxpayer money.

Lewis and Iorio proceeded to put Madison ahead of 10
other much larger failed Arkansas S&Ls that had never been investigated, much less prosecuted, as Madison had been, and Lewis went to
work on Madison alone.

In late July, Clinton won the Democratic nomination and
quickly pulled ahead of President Bush in the polls.

Lewis later told Sen. Alphonse D’Amato’s Whitewater committee that she had set for herself a “self-imposed deadline” of Aug. 31, 1992, for her investigation. Little Rock FBI Agent Steve Irons said that Lewis, in a
“very dramatic way,” told him that she had “given up a job opportunity in D.C.” so that she could “alter history” by completing
a criminal referral prior to the presidential election. Irons said that Lewis’ comments were clearly related to naming the Clintons in her
criminal referral.

On Sept. 2, 1992, Lewis and Iorio sent a criminal
referral to Charles Banks, the Republican-appointed U.S. attorney
in Little Rock, in which she named Bill and Hillary Clinton as
“possible witnesses” to and “potential beneficiaries” of criminal
wrongdoing in the failure of Madison Guaranty Savings and Loan. In
violation of RTC policy, she began calling Banks and Irons. Irons
testified that she left numerous messages asking “what the FBI was
doing with the referral.” Irons thought her calls were
inappropriate and “refused to give her status reports.” In further violation of RTC policy, Lewis
responded by traveling from Kansas City to Little Rock on Sept.
18, 1992, and dropping in on Irons unannounced to press her case.
Little Rock FBI agents said they were “concerned about Lewis’ objectivity and overall professionalism.” Lewis told the FBI that “her boss, Richard Iorio, kept asking her to try to find out what it [the FBI] was doing.”

Lewis’ numerous phone calls to U.S Attorney Banks’ office also struck him as “unusual. I saw no need for the sense of
urgency except for who the witnesses were [the Clintons] … so it
caused me to be very circumspect about it.” The calls “came between
early September and Oct. 16,” said Banks. Assistant U.S. Attorney Floyd Mac Dodson recalled that Lewis made these calls “between the first
of September and probably November, around election time … I got
the impression she thought I was not moving fast enough.”

Lewis later swore under oath that she hadn’t contacted the
FBI or Banks’ office until after the election, in
December 1992 — a statement that was refuted by the testimony and contemporaneous notes of Irons, Banks and numerous other federal law
enforcement officials.

Meanwhile, sworn testimony reveals that the Bush White House
already knew about Lewis’ criminal referral and that Lewis had failed to get Banks to act on it. Bush’s attorney general, William Barr, testified that on Sept. 17, 1992, during a flight on Air Force One, White House Cabinet Secretary Edith Holiday asked him whether he “was aware of an S&L matter involving
Bill Clinton pending before the Justice Department.” Holiday was
also, for the duration, chief liaison between the Bush White House
and the Bush-Quayle reelection campaign, and had been a senior official in Bush’s 1988 campaign.

When Barr returned to his Department of Justice office, he
checked with the FBI on Holiday’s assertion. The FBI responded
that they “had no record of such a case.” Barr testified that
when he reported this to Holiday, “She seemed surprised to hear this,” making him wonder “if she had better information” than he. So he checked again and learned this time “that an RTC criminal referral mentioning the Clintons did indeed exist.”

Holiday, whose husband, Terence Adamson, is Starr’s personal attorney, denied “any recollection” of the two contacts Attorney General Barr testified he had with her.

Barr testified that he was angry because he believed that
Banks had “deliberately withheld” the
referral. “Anything that involves a public personage, a celebrity
[or] public officials,” he testified, required “an urgent
report” to the Justice Department.

On Oct. 8, Barr convened a joint FBI-Justice Department panel to examine the referral. But the panel concluded that the
referral “failed to cite evidence of any federal criminal offense.”
The panel’s comment about the referral ranged from “junky”
and “half-baked” to that its allegations were “reckless, irresponsible” and “odd.”

Nevertheless, Barr put a preliminary investigation into motion and ordered Banks to review it again and to report back by
Oct. 16, two weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

But, in fact, Banks had already concluded,
and the FBI in Little Rock had agreed, that “no action should be
taken on the referral at that time.” Banks had already prosecuted
Jim McDougal in 1990 for alleged bank crimes, and McDougal had been
acquitted. Banks said further that he believed “no prosecutable
case existed against any of the witnesses,” most notably the Clintons.

As Banks noted in his report to the Justice Department dated Oct. 16, Barr’s desire to expedite the Whitewater investigation smacked of improper political use of the federal judicial system. “I know in investigations of this type,” wrote Banks, “the first steps, such as issuance of … subpoenas … will lead to media and public
inquiries of matters that are subject to absolute privacy. Even media questions about such an investigation all too often publicly purport to ‘legitimize what can’t be proven’ … I must opine that after such a lapse of time, the insistence for urgency in this case appears to suggest an intentional or unintentional attempt to intervene into the political process of the upcoming presidential election … For me personally to participate in an investigation that I know will or could easily lead to the above scenario and to the possible denial of rights due to the targets, subjects, witnesses or defendants is inappropriate. I believe it amounts to prosecutorial misconduct and violates the most basic fundamental rule of Department of Justice policy. I cannot be a party to such actions and believe that such would be detrimental to the Department of Justice, FBI, this office and to the President of the United States [George Bush].”

But Banks’ statement didn’t end the Bush White House’s attempt to use the federal bureaucracy to damage its opponent. Albert Casey, the director of the RTC, testified that he had also heard from the White House just before the election, in a phone call from C. Boyden Gray, Bush’s White House counsel.

Gray, according to Casey’s testimony in deposition to Sen.
D’Amato’s Whitewater committee, asked Casey if he “knew anything about an RTC
matter involving the Clintons.” Casey said he did not, but that he
“would look into it and call Gray back.” Casey immediately learned
from RTC executive William Roelle, who had seen it, that “there was
an RTC criminal referral involving the Clintons.” He testified
that Roelle told him he “should not provide the Bush White House
with any information” about it. Casey said that before he could
call Gray back, Gray called him again saying, “Al, forget my request. I don’t want you to tell me a thing.”

Gray, like Holiday, also swore under oath that he had no
“memory of ever having spoken with Casey about an RTC criminal
referral” involving the Clintons.

Also during that September, White House aides were using the State Department to get into Clinton’s passport file to find any incriminating evidence that might be used in the campaign. Joseph DiGenova, Bush’s U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, was appointed independent counsel to investigate the aides. His conclusion was, in effect, yes, they did it, and they
shouldn’t have. It was a one-day media story. (In recent days, DiGenova has taken the lead in publicly defending Starr’s aggressive investigative techniques.)

On Nov. 3, 1992, William Jefferson Clinton was elected
the 42nd president of the United States. In March 1993 U.S. Attorney Banks resigned to make way for a Clinton appointee, but
Bush factions remained burrowed within the Justice Department, the RTC and in the other banking agencies. For a short seven months, Republican attempts to use banking allegations to smear Clinton seemed quiescent.

After Clinton’s inauguration, the fraud division of the
Justice Department concluded that the RTC’s Whitewater referral didn’t appear to “warrant any criminal investigation.” Department of Justice trial
attorney Mark McDougal wrote, “No factual claims can be found in
the referral to support the designation of Mr. and Mrs. Clinton as
witnesses to criminal conduct.” In addition, a 1996 investigation by
the San Francisco law firm Pillsbury, Madison & Sutro “found no evidence to support” even a charge of civil fraud
against anyone named. To this day, Starr has brought no criminal charges based on Lewis’ original referral.

In July 1993, the Clinton administration nominated Stanley Tate, a Miami Republican and real estate expert, to replace Albert Casey as head of the RTC. It would prove to be a fateful step. Tate was an East Coast
RTC director and an outspoken critic of government abuses of thrift
operators, as well as of the low prices the RTC was getting for
valuable S&L properties. Bush factions within the RTC set out to
destroy him. In retaliation for Tate’s nomination, Lewis’
criminal referral on Whitewater was unearthed and sent to the new acting U.S. attorney in Little Rock.

Before longtime RTC executive Lamar Kelly left the agency,
he put Lewis and Iorio back to work on Madison Guaranty. By early
October they had developed nine new referrals and sent them to the
new acting U.S. attorney in Little Rock as well. Three named the
Clintons as potential witnesses to and beneficiaries of criminal activities.

Tate’s nomination had set off numerous negative news
stories. For four months, Tate fought a losing public relations
battle while RTC factions leaked inaccurate and damaging accounts
about him to the press. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Don
Riegle, already burned in the S&L scandal as one of the Keating Five, refused to meet with Tate about his nomination hearing. In November, Tate decided
to bow out, saying, “I am not strong enough nor rich enough to
fight the federal government.”

By then, late October 1993, Lewis had already leaked the existence of her new
criminal referrals to Washington Post reporter Susan Schmidt, causing
the media uproar that culminated in Janet Reno’s appointment of
the first Whitewater independent counsel, Republican Robert Fiske,
in January 1994.

Capitol Hill Republicans today claim that three of Lewis’ nine new
referrals listed financial transactions that figured in the l995
trial of Jim and Susan McDougal and Arkansas Gov. Jim Guy Tucker,
but, significantly, Lewis was not called to testify in that trial.
Says Max Brantley, editor of the Arkansas Times: “I was shocked when
Tucker was convicted. I followed the trial closely, and those loan
papers looked just like ordinary loan papers. I thought Tucker was
innocent, but the prosecutor managed to convince the jury that it
was fraud.” In 1989, U.S. Attorney Banks had reviewed the transactions since used by Starr to convict Tucker, and had rejected bringing any charges on them.

In February 1994, Lewis surreptitiously tape-recorded an
RTC lawyer saying, “If they could say it honestly,” RTC officials
in Washington “would like to be able to say that Whitewater did not
cause a loss to Madison (Guaranty).” Lewis leaked the tape to Rep. Jim Leach, R-Iowa, who read an edited version of it on the House floor, and
threw in some hyped allegations against the Clintons for good
measure.

However, some of Lewis’ RTC co-workers were at last emboldened to lodge complaints about her activities, and agency officials removed Lewis from the Madison probe.

On June 30, 1994, Whitewater independent counsel Fiske’s
first report deflated Republican hopes by concluding that Vincent
Foster had committed suicide because he had been depressed over
defamatory, “mean-spirited and factually baseless” editorials about
him in the Wall Street Journal, and that he had mentioned
Whitewater to no one. Fiske’s report also exonerated the Treasury
Department of charges that it had wrongly informed the Clinton
White House of Lewis’ new criminal referral naming the Clintons.

A far more serious threat to Republican plans occurred in
July when the RTC finally drew up charges against Lewis and Iorio
for an agency investigation, among them improper disclosure of confidential
documents, secretly taping RTC employees (Lewis said the recorder
“turned itself on”), keeping confidential documents at home and using
government equipment for personal gain. Lewis admitted in a
deposition to the investigators that she had used her office to market
T-shirts and coffee mugs lettered “B.I.T.C.H — Bubba, I’m Taking
Charge, Hillary.” Lewis said the use of the word “bitch” was “in
no way intended to denigrate the first lady” and refused to admit
that it was improper to market a product that disparaged a witness
named in her criminal referral. Iorio, her superior, was
charged with permitting Lewis to do all of the above.

Most importantly, an RTC investigation of Lewis would undoubtedly have uncovered President Bush’s involvement in the
original 1992 criminal referrals naming the Clintons.

Enter Kenneth W. Starr.

On Aug. 5, 1994, in a move that would bury the charges
against Lewis, a Republican-dominated three-judge panel removed independent counsel Fiske and
replaced him with highly partisan former Bush Solicitor General Kenneth Starr. The panel had been picked by Chief Justice William Rehnquist, a Nixon appointee to the Supreme Court who was raised to its top post by Ronald Reagan.

On Aug. 12, the RTC put Lewis and Iorio on administrative
leave. But the agency had moved too late to investigate the pair’s participation in the political smearing of the Clintons. On Aug. 22, in his first official
act, Starr subpoenaed the RTC’s records on Lewis. On Sept. 27,
he ordered the RTC to suspend its investigation of her and instead impaneled a grand jury to investigate those at the RTC who were investigating Lewis. Lewis and Iorio were reinstated at the RTC, and testified against the Clintons in November l995 Senate hearings.

In Lewis’ 1995 appearance before the Senate Whitewater committee, she was confronted with her “lying bastard” letter, and
then was exposed as having lied about surreptitiously tape recording
the RTC lawyer. Lewis collapsed into tears, was briefly hospitalized and has since dropped from sight. Starr continues to protect her and the Bush administration by keeping under wraps the RTC investigation into her activities.

Both L. Jean Lewis’ and Paula Jones’ legal fees have
been paid by, among others, the Landmark Legal Foundation, an ultra-conservative organization for which Starr has worked even while serving as independent counsel and which is just one of the many groups funded by a Starr benefactor, far-right millionaire Richard Mellon Scaife. The arch conservative’s largesse has funded most of the purveyors of anti-Clinton propaganda, including the huge “Vincent Foster was murdered” PR blitz. (Scaife also created the position at Pepperdine University for Starr that he announced a year ago he would take.)

And, to close the triangle, Linda Tripp’s lawyer also has
close ties to Landmark Legal Foundation. Landmark Legal’s president is Mark Levin, former chief of staff to Reagan Attorney General Edwin Meese III, who is now with the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington.

Starr’s office maintains, after three and a half years,
that the Lewis case is still under investigation. But the evidence suggests that Starr has sat on the case in order to keep the Bush White House’s knowledge and encouragement of Lewis’ original Madison referral under wraps. Now he
has done the same with Tripp. By taking over the Jones case,
he has put Tripp’s story and motivations and the extent of her connections to his own inquiry beyond the reach of the American people. It is all-important that Tripp’s story be known.

It is equally vital to understand that Lewis’ unfounded
and politically inspired first criminal referral is the original
basis for all the subsequent accusations, Whitewater charges,
innuendoes of sleaze, hearings, subpoenas, bestselling books
— and new referrals — that have dogged the Clinton
administration ever since. That bogus referral is the foundation
on which rests the now towering edifice of the Starr inquisition.

Starr’s inquisition would not have been possible, however, without the
misleading and selective reporting of the news media that have
written the most about Whitewater. These reporters, working primarily for the Washington Post, New York Times and the New Yorker, have been thoroughly spun
by Starr and his cohorts. Starr has cultivated close relationships with the press corps that cover him — they address him
reverentially as Judge Starr — but none more so than with the Washington Post. The Post’s legendary former executive editor, Benjamin Bradlee, remarked on C-SPAN last year, “In my book, Ken Starr can do no wrong;
he dismissed a $2 million libel suit that had hung over the Post
for seven years.” In his 1995 memoir, Bradlee gratefully quotes
Starr’s opinion in the libel case.

The cozy relationship between Starr and the Post has been demonstrated throughout the paper’s four-year coverage of
Whitewater, during which the Post has been filled with
grand jury and sealed document leaks from Starr’s office, and has been devoid of criticism of Starr and his investigation. While Starr stands sanctimoniously at the front door of the courthouse and tells the press about the “appropriateness” and “propriety” of his
investigation and dismisses Hillary Clinton’s charge of his bias as
“nonsense,” he shovels piles of self-serving and Clinton-damaging materials out the back door to the Post and the other news organizations.

When Starr inserted himself into the Jones lawsuit with his Lewinsky investigation, the Post did not mention Starr’s 1994 (and, now we know, ongoing) involvement with the Jones case until Jan. 30, nine days after the Post broke the Lewinsky story, and only then in the face of the public’s criticism of Starr and its overwhelming support for Clinton.

Until 1992, Republicans had held the White House for 20 of the previous 24 years. When Clinton came to Washington, he probably didn’t fully appreciate that a large, hostile and very sophisticated Nixon-Reagan-Bush government-in-exile had resentfully decamped to join their brethren in Washington law firms, PR firms, wealthy think tanks and the news media and had burrowed into the bureaucracy. They are positioned to protect their past errors and outrages from discovery and primed to do Clinton as much damage as possible. They remain in place — waiting to take over the White House and federal bureaucracy again.

And former Bush White House Counsel C. Boyden Gray, who has
“no memory” of phoning the RTC in the 11th hour of the 1992
presidential election about a criminal referral that accused Bill
and Hillary Clinton of criminal wrongdoing? These days Gray is
making the talk-show circuit, defending Starr’s ever-expanding investigation.
“I do not at all think his office is out of control,” Gray wants us to know.

Mollie Dickenson's articles have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Miami Herald and other publications. She is the author of "Thumbs Up," a biography of Reagan Press Secretary James Brady.

The politicization of the Secret Service scandal

What was once one of the right's favorite government agencies becomes a symbol of waste and moral degradation

President Obama, surrounded by members of the Secret Service, upon his arrival in San Diego, Sept. 26, 2011. (Credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

It’s hard to work up much outrage about the Secret Service prostitution scandal, in which 11 members of the president’s elite protective service and various military personnel were found to have picked up escorts in Colombia, where they were doing advance work for the president’s visit. I guess it is probably not a good idea for the people in charge of protecting the president to leave themselves vulnerable to sexual blackmail, but on the other hand we do not live in a John Le Carré novel or “24″ episode, and I don’t think the threat of a honey-trap assassination conspiracy plot is very credible. If members of the Secret Service want to get drunk and hire escorts after work, that is their business. (As Melissa Gira Grant says, the only actual scandal here — and the reason this became an international incident — is that all these guys tried to bilk one of the women out of the money she was owed.)

But the predictable Washington mixture of prurient interest and moral posturing has turned this incident into grist for the scandals-and-investigations mill. And now we have the attempts at somehow making this a winning partisan issue for Republicans. Chuck Grassley, the senator from Iowa who triumphed over adversity and became the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee despite being functionally illiterate, would like to know whether any White House staff also slept with escorts that evening. No one has made the claim, but Grassley’s asking just in case. (For a live peek at a future paranoid right-wing myth in its embryonic stage, read the comments on that Washington Times story: “I can just hear those paper shredders going a mile a minute in the white house, and the document forgers are being called in, you know the same ones that did the birth certificate.”) Grassley was on Fox last night to make sure viewers repeatedly heard baseless speculation as to the involvement of White House staff.

Rep. Pete King, Long Island Republican and stalwart publicity monger, has sent Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan a list of 50 questions about the scandal in order to make it appear that he is very seriously investigating this very serious incident.

For those outside Congress, for whom insinuating escort patronage by unnamed White House staff seems a bit of a reach, the game is to attempt to use the scandal to prove some point the fecklessness of Obama as a leader and his shameful failure to make everyone in Washington stop being so awful and wasteful all the time.

NRO’s Mark Steyn, after praising the fiscal discipline of the agent who attempted to bilk his escort (ugh), suggests that the moral of the story is that we pay too much for presidential security, and that all those agents and fancy bullet-proof Suburbans are wastes of taxpayer funds and evidence of broke post-Imperial America’s profligacy. Sarah Palin, who had every right to be personally aggrieved for once, after it was reported that the agent at the center of the scandal wrote gross sexist things about her on Facebook, was among the first to declare that the problem was with the “culture” Obama has created at the White House. (Karl Rove, smarter than most of these people, suggested that politicizing a Secret Service scandal was dumb and counterproductive. Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan, coincidentally, was elevated to his position under George W. Bush.)

The makeup of the Secret Service, obviously, has very little connection to the political party of the person occupying the White House. Like most American law enforcement agencies, it’s primarily white and overwhelmingly male, and, historically, the culture of the agency has had more than a whiff of machismo. These are not exactly the sort of public sector employees right-wingers get off on demonizing.

In fact, the right has had for years a sort of Clint Eastwood-inspired fantasy of the Secret Service agent as folk hero. Decent, hard-working men putting their lives on the line to protect a bunch of elitist ingrates. That ingratiating phony Bill Clinton and his frigid, hectoring monster of a wife weren’t deserving of such stolid, unflinching loyalty and service.

The fullest expression of this fantasy is in this classic chain email that made its way to every inbox in the nation during the second president Bush’s first term. According to this email, attributed to the unnamed author’s former neighbor, the president’s security detail was constantly disrespected by those awful Clintons and their terrible staff. Hillary Clinton was “arrogant and orally abusive.” “She forbade her daughter, Chelsea, from exchanging pleasantries with” agents. “Al Gore resented Bill Clinton and thought he was to centrist. He despised all republicans.” Agents prayed for Bush to win the election, and their reward was the joy they all felt in the presence of President Bush and his amazing, wonderful wife.

This nonsense has its roots in fake anti-Hillary attacks, attributed to imaginary Secret Service members, that Republican operatives spread to sympathetic media voices starting more or less the day Bill took office. Former Secret Service agents do plenty of gossiping and bitching, most frequently to Ronald Kessler, but their complaints don’t tend to track quite so directly to right-wing fantasy narratives.

But a popular trope is of the upstanding agents blanching at being asked to look the other way as libidinous Democratic presidents — Kennedy, Johnson, and Clinton — womanized. (Clinton was said to have threatened to fire agents who stymied his attempts to have trysts with Monica Lewinsky, though the agent who made the claim admitted to having invented it.) The pat moralism of the conservative Secret Service fantasy makes the agency’s lurid misadventure a bit funnier. It also explains why various people have to somehow convince themselves that the Obama administration somehow degraded the agency, through a lack of “management skills” or the widespread embrace of sexual deviance that is the logical end result of repealing the military’s ban on out gays and lesbians.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

The silly 2016 speculation game

It may be impossible to make any serious predictions about a far-off race, but that has never stopped a pundit

(Credit: AP/Shutterstock/Salon)

Being that it’s still March 2012 and we have no way of knowing who will actually be president by the end of January 2013 (besides “not Ron Paul,” obviously), it would seem to be a bit premature to speculate as to how the 2016 presidential race will shake out. And yet political reporters, finally bored perhaps with the inevitable Republican nomination of Mitt Romney, are already spewing forth predictions. Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has even created a “Sweet 2016″ bracket. 

The most important lesson of terrible premature presidential-campaign speculation is that nearly everyone who engages in it will be terribly, hilariously wrong. It doesn’t matter if you’re a complete buffoon, like Dick Morris, author of the 2007 classic “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race,” or someone fairly serious and “savvy,” like New York Times politics reporter Matt Bai, who posited current nobody Mark Warner as the future of the party in a 2006 Times magazine cover story now best (if barely) remembered for its altered and unflattering photo of the subject.

There will be events no one could’ve predicted — like “obvious” future Republican presidential contender George Allen using an obscure racial slur on camera, or John Edwards being generally John Edwards — that destroy promising careers in an instant.

And there is also the plain fact that the sort of politicians that Washington-based reporters and pundits and political operatives like, and the sort of politicians they think “voters” would like, are often people who have no appeal for anyone outside of their districts or the Beltway. (Like Evan Bayh. Jon Huntsman. And Mitch Daniels, probably.)

Some people turn out to be awful at campaigning: Like Wesley Clark, the general who was going to sweep a troop-worshiping country off its feet and away from George W. Bush, until it turned out that he did not blink like a human. Or Rick Perry, who, it turned out, seems too dumb to dress himself when asked simple questions on television.

There are times when this sort of long-range forecasting is easy until you overthink it: John McCain was the logical 2008 front-runner the moment he addressed the 2004 Republican convention, until you started daydreaming about Fred Thompson’s seductive drawl. Al Gore was pretty obviously going to be the Democratic nominee in 2000, and boredom with his inevitability might’ve had a hand in how the political press helped destroy him that year.

A hell of a lot will obviously depend on whether or not Barack Obama wins reelection. If he loses, Democrats might suddenly find white candidates from the West or the South more attractive. If he wins, we might have to take Joe Biden semi-seriously for a few unlikely news cycles. If Obama ends a second term as popular as Clinton, someone associated with his administration is certainly more likely to be nominated than if Obama’s 2015 numbers look more like Bush’s in 2007.

So let’s get to the predictions, shall we? According to Cillizza, the “number one seed” for 2016 is New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. (Mark Warner is still on the shortlist, by the way. His time will come!)

Cuomo is the reasonably popular governor of a very populous state. He’s thus far managed to balance liberal base-pleasing deeds (gay marriage!) with “moderate” newspaper editorial-board pleasing things (going after the pensions of public employees!). But we’re still talking about a Northeast liberal (or “liberal”) — from New York! — who’s living with but not currently married to a celebrity television cook who makes awful-looking garbage food out of prepackaged garbage food. The Democratic Party might not want to chance another blatantly culturally urban candidate. (I mean urban in the literal sense, and not as weird racial code.) Plus he’s in the honeymoon portion of his governorship, and that job has utterly destroyed its last two holders.

Plus, Cuomo looks like he’s on pace to use up much of the goodwill he built up with liberals after signing gay marriage into law. (So far there’s been his apparent lack of interest in transit, signing awful gerrymandered legislative and congressional district lines, and his property tax cap.)

Joe Biden has run for president twice and never come remotely close to winning a single primary. He’ll be 74 in 2016. As Steve Kornacki already pointed out, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to nominate 70-somethings. He’s also a gaffe-prone goofball whose appeal is that he’s a ridiculous character. I would not put a lot of InTrade money on Joe Biden winning the Democratic nomination in 2016.

Hillary Clinton is a bit younger than Biden, and a lot more serious than Biden. But does she still want to be president? Who knows. (Anyone who says they know is lying.) And if she runs in 2016, does she hire the same asinine campaign team that lost her the nomination in 2008?

After those three, we’re already essentially in “who?” territory with the Democrats. Not to say that someone no one has heard of now won’t be the nominee — with Democrats, you may be more likely to get a relative unknown than with Republicans — but we can’t know which governors or senators will turn out to be Barack Obama (or even John Edwards) and which ones will turn out to be… well, Mark Warner.

And theoretically there would be more women vying for the nomination than just Hillary Clinton. Cillizza posits New York Sen. Kristen Gillibrand — a long shot, in my estimation — and senatorial hopeful Elizabeth Warren, who, if she loses her election, would surely be out of the running, and if she wins, would be … a liberal senator from Massachusetts. So, I dunno, Amy Klobuchar? Sadly, four of the current six female governors are Republicans. The two Democrats are North Carolina’s Bev Purdue, who is currently polling poorly enough that she’s announced that she won’t seek reelection, and Washington’s Christine Gregoire, who seems cool, so let’s just put her on the fantasy shortlist. (Oh, I guess the Times already did.)

But you see where we are, at this point: Randomly tossing out names. It’s like predicting the 2016 NFL Draft. Some of these kids are still in high school!

As for Republicans: If Mitt Romney wins the election, there’s the candidate, fun speculation time done. (Unless Newt and Ron Paul mount a primary challenge?!?) If he loses, the party likely learns the lesson it always learns and lurches to the right for a while, and your front-runner in that case (assuming he doesn’t blow up the party at the convention, I guess?) is Rick Santorum. I made this point already and Dave Weigel concurred. He’s a “true conservative” and he looks like he’ll “come in second” this year, which are both substantial advantages in the Republican race.

Maybe it’s Marco Rubio if Romney makes him the running mate, but the GOP does not often nominate losing running mates, because why would you?

Is Paul Ryan, who frantically introduces numbers-laden fake-serious budgets every year, the future of the party? I happen to think he’s basically a bland weenie who only excites people predisposed to thrill to rich-on-poor economic warefare, but a not insubstantial portion of the Republican Party “elite” seems to like that sort of thing. Mitch Daniels is somehow even less electrifying, but as a governor he has a better shot than Rep. Ryan. And Santorum still seems to have a massive advantage over them all.

(Oh, what about Chris Christie? Yes, well, he’d certainly be fun but he is pretty moderate for the national Republican Party, even if he masks it by being an obnoxious, belligerent bully. And he is woefully unprepared to protect us from CREEPING SHARIAH.)

One guy changes this calculus, obviously: Jeb Bush, because the Bush name exerts some sort of weird hypnotic power over the Republican Party, and they are often forced to do their bidding, even when, afterward, they all regret it. I like to imagine that the nation as a whole has decided that it’s done with Bushes forever, but that is pretty naive. I mean, Nixon got elected twice. Jeb Bush has not actually held office in a while — by 2016 he’ll have been a regular private citizen for nearly a decade — and it’s possible the family has decided to wait for George P. Bush to come of age before reasserting their claim over the White House (oh man, guys, he just turned 35).

The sick need to treat politics like it’s fantasy baseball ensures that there’s absolutely nothing anyone can do to make people not wildly speculate as to what will happen years after an election that is still months away, so I just encourage you to be sensible and responsible about it. (Like, it won’t be Rand Paul.)

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Bill Keller writes newest, dumbest Biden-Clinton 2012 swap piece

Former New York Times editor combines hackneyed analysis with shopworn topic, with predictable results

Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton (Credit: AP/Jason Reed)

Bill Keller, a bad opinion columnist, has written a bad opinion column. It is about how Barack Obama will replace Vice President Joe Biden on the 2012 ticket with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a thing that will not actually happen.

The former New York Times editor has lately been celebrating his return to writing by fearlessly tackling hacky column ideas already exhausted by everyone who was writing bad opinion columns during Keller’s tenure as a person with an actually important job. Having offered his own takes on classics like “The Huffington Post isn’t as good as a real newspaper” and “Twitter is dumb,” Keller today tries the old “running mate switcharoo” scenario.

John Heilemann made the case in August of 2010, but Bob Woodward really kicked it off by pretending a Biden-Clinton switch was “on the table” in October of 2010. That notion — supposedly — can be traced back to pollster grifter Mark Penn, which should have stopped anyone else from bringing it up ever again. But Jonathan Alter took another crack at it last October, and publishing speculation on the switch has become reliable Drudge-bait ever since.

Keller’s column frames the switch as something wished for, instead of predicting it based on the “chatter” of “insiders,” which helps make it merely stupid instead of inherently dishonest. But here are his arguments as to why it would be a good idea instead of a bizarre and desperate stunt:

One: it does more to guarantee Obama’s re-election than anything else the Democrats can do. Two: it improves the chances that, come next January, he will not be a lame duck with a gridlocked Congress but a rejuvenated president with a mandate and a Congress that may be a little less forbidding. Three: it makes Hillary the party’s heir apparent in 2016. If she sits out politics for the next four years, other Democrats (yes, Governor Cuomo, we see your hand up) will fill the void.

One: What? Prove it, maybe? Two: Haha what, again? Congress will get ungridlocked if the president switches vice presidents? To a Clinton? Three: OK, but what if Obama/Clinton loses? And if Obama wins again wouldn’t any Democrat be at a disadvantage in 2016 due to historical trends anyway, making it a “safer” bet to not be his running mate, assuming she actually wants to be president still, which is not at all a given?

But we’re not dealing with observable reality here, as the bit about Clinton’s magical power to un-gridlock Congress demonstrates. We’re in the world of vague assertions about “warmth” and “voltage.” How many electoral votes would running mate Hillary Clinton be worth? Keller never bothers to attempt to make a quantitative guess. This is the closest we get:

Moreover, even if Obama can win without Hillary, there’s a lot to be said for running up the score. If she can do in 2012 what Obama did in 2008 — animate that feeling of historic possibility — the pair can lift some House and Senate candidates along with them. One reason Republicans did so well in the 2010 Congressional elections is that they overcame the gender gap and carried women voters 51 to 49. Those voters will flock back to Hillary, the more so if the Republican ticket is locked into a culture-war agenda. So, by the way, will Hispanic voters, securing such endangered states as Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

Ooh, actual data! The Republicans won women in a midterm election. Hillary Clinton is a woman. So in a presidential general election, women will “flock back to Hillary.” Those women may be Republicans, voting in a Republican wave election, but they are women and so they will vote for Barack Obama if he is next to a woman on the ballot. (Though what about those Hispanics? Shouldn’t Obama replace Biden with a Hispanic woman, in this case? Or isn’t he in fact best off retaining Joe Biden, who is, after all, a white man? From Scranton? White men will “flock back” to Obama once they see that he is friends with a white person.)

The column isn’t just bad analysis — it’s also oddly condescending to Secretary Clinton! It complains that she owes “us” a vice-presidential run after she “raised our expectations” by running for president last time. It calls Clinton “the dutiful Methodist schoolgirl.”

Here’s the line that is secretly the worst:

But the idea that she should replace Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate in 2012 is something else. It has been kicking around on the blogs for more than a year without getting any traction, mainly because it has been authoritatively, emphatically dismissed by Hillary, Biden and Team Obama.

Did you see that? “Kicking around on the blogs.” That’s Keller-speak for “not worth anyone’s time until a real journalist like New York Times opinion columnist Bill Keller brought it up.” The “bloggers” kicking this idea around, as I mentioned earlier, are New York magazine political writer John Heilemann, Washington Post living legend Bob Woodward, and former Newsweek senior editor and best-selling author Jonathan Alter. Those bloggers and their crazy notions!

As a blogger, I know that my silly opinion is not as carefully considered and well-informed as that of former New York Times editor Bill Keller, who is not at all simply talking out of his ass. But even if there were any hint at all that the switch was a possibility, which there isn’t, it would be a stupid idea. Hillary Clinton is already part of the president’s Cabinet, and she and her husband will already campaign for the president’s reelection. Running mates barely nudge the numbers in presidential elections, unless they’re historically awful, which Joe Biden isn’t. The Clintons are among the most divisive figures in American politics — Hillary Clinton’s recent high approval rating has come because she’s not running for anything — and relitigating every Clinton scandal would consume the national political press for weeks if she ended up on the ticket.

The running mate switch hasn’t been successful since the Franklin Roosevelt administration, and the last time a president made a strategic switch to help win a tough reelection, it failed.

And I bet if Obama did make this stupid switch, Bill Keller would write some awful column about how desperate it made the president look. Unless he will have by then moved on to finally writing his “kids today sure are sexting each other a lot” piece.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Fake Democratic pollsters have stupid idea

The Wall Street Journal publishes nonsense from Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell, because they think you're an idiot

Hillary Clinton and President Obama (Credit: AP/Charles Dharapak)

I think it’s best to understand the Wall Street Journal editorial board’s decision to publish any given column by con artist pollsters Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell as basically an expression of contempt for people who read the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

Caddell and Schoen, two loser “Democratic” “pollsters,” regularly publish very lame link-bait columns about how if Democrats want to succeed electorally, they must immediately cease being Democrats, and become, instead, Republicans. This week’s variation on that theme: Barack Obama should step aside (already heard that one last year around this time) and allow himself to be replaced by Hillary Clinton, for the good of the party and the nation.

Even though Mrs. Clinton has expressed no interest in running, and we have no information to suggest that she is running any sort of stealth campaign, it is clear that she commands majority support throughout the country.

Because she’s not running for anything.

So Hillary Clinton should be president instead of Barack Obama, because Obama is too partisan and divisive. America needs a bipartisan plan to attack the deficit and also create jobs, and it is Obama’s fault that that is a vague, magical fairy tale. Hillary Clinton will make this fairy tale real, thanks to the fact that, as we all know, Republicans love cheerfully working with the Clintons for the good of the nation. When a Clinton’s in the White House, partisan politics are always put aside!

This is self-evidently dumb on about ten different levels — Clinton won’t run, President Clinton wouldn’t have any more success negotiating with Congressional Republicans than President Obama, Clinton’s popularity is a result of her not being a partisan candidate for office anymore, if there was such a thing as a “bipartisan” plan to reduce the deficit while also stimulating job growth (and protecting entitlements!) we’d presumably have already decided to act on this fantastical plan, everything resembling such a plan is explicitly supported by the White House and rejected by Republicans, Republicans would not endorse said plans if President Obama promised to go away because then they’d simply want to wait for a Republican to take over for him, and Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen are not, as they claim to be, Democrats — but the Journal published this regardless, as they always do with fresh tripe from Schoen and Caddell.

Schoen — who works for hypothetical future independent presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, though that fact is never, ever disclosed — is a simple hack, precisely as dumb and unprincipled as you’d expect anyone who was once Mark Penn’s right-hand man to be. Caddell angrily left the Democratic party 20 years ago, which is seldom mentioned when he’s trotted out to trash the president on behalf of the right-wing media outlets that pay his rent. But the fact that they’re classic “Fox Democrats” matters much less than the fact that all of their editorials are predictable, wrong, and patently stupid.

As I said, printing their editorials is an implicit admission that you think your audience is credulous and moronic. The people in charge of the Wall Street Journal are savvy enough about politics to know that all of this is bilge and bullshit. They know both that this will never happen and that it’d be a stupid suggestion even if it were within the realm of possibility. They just don’t care. They don’t care that they’re printing garbage, because they figure garbage will get some traffic from those engaged in the same game.

If I were a conservative American I’d be less outraged at the specter of liberal elites hypothetically disrespecting me from their coastal enclaves and much more pissed off that the people on my side are constantly peddling this bullshit.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Does Hillary Clinton get too much credit?

She's a huge foreign policy asset to the president but this week's hosannas feel like overkill

Hillary Clinton (Credit: Reuters)

I’m on record as a great admirer of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, going back to her days as New York senator and certainly through her 2008 presidential campaign. But this week’s set of stories depicting the U.S. Libya intervention as “Hillary’s War” (The Washington Post) and an example of Clinton’s “smart power” doctrine (Time Magazine’s cover) go a little bit too far for me. They feel like someone’s effort to upstage or diminish President Obama. For the record, I don’t think the effort is Clinton’s. It may just reflect the mainstream media’s inability to give Obama his due.

Clearly Clinton’s competence is an asset to the president, and her power and credibility reflects well on his ability to work with a former rival. And the Time piece, in particular, makes clear, while praising Clinton, that ultimately Obama makes most of his decisions with a small team of confidantes, and she is not among them. He’s the commander in chief.

And there’s fine reporting in the two pieces. Certainly Clinton deserves credit for using her role to leverage support and resources from other agencies, getting greater control of foreign aid funding and even Defense Department funds to bolster her agenda at State. Elevating the role of the State Department took particular work after George W. Bush ignored and degraded so many American alliances.

But neither piece apportions any share of blame for the downside of Clinton’s expansive diplomacy – her role in pushing a bigger continued U.S. presence in and around Iraq, for instance, flagged Monday by Glenn Greenwald. The continued Iraq presence will also use more of the sometimes lawless private contractors whose role she opposed during the presidential campaign. It also seems a little early to be declaring Libya a decisive victory for American interests, or the cause of human freedom, as the nature of the government that will emerge there remains unclear.

Still, at a time when Obama struggles to get the kind of credit he deserves on the foreign policy and domestic security front – for killing Osama bin Laden and other top al Qaida leaders, winding down the military role in Iraq and toppling Muammar Gaddhafi without losing a single American life – it strikes me as a little unseemly that when credit is given, so much of it goes to Clinton. For her part, at least publicly, Clinton works to turn the spotlight on her boss, telling David Gregory on Meet the Press 10 days ago that “President Obama has passed with flying colors every leadership challenge.” And while she insisted, not convincingly, “I’m out of politics, as you know, David, I don’t comment on it,” she quickly boosted her boss against his potential 2012 rivals.  “I think Americans are going to want to know that they have a steady, experienced, smart hand on the tiller of the ship of state, and there’s no doubt that that’s Barack Obama.”

It feels a little mean-spirited to be raising these questions about Clinton’s coverage on the day she lost her mother, Dorothy Rodham, at 92, but this is the week of the adoring press coverage. Again, I’m a strong Clinton admirer. But there’s something a little odd about the worshipful tone of these pieces. I still see a faint echo of Maureen Dowd’s analysis propping up Clinton and other female administration “hawks” in her continued effort to diminish Obama’s leadership and masculinity.   Dowd seems to be on vacation, or else we might see her to use these two profiles as another reason to pit Clinton against her boss.

I spoke with a close Clinton friend last week who insists the Secretary of State has no interest in either the role of vice president in 2012, or a presidential run in 2016, so I don’t think there’s any crusade for either job behind these admiring stories. Maybe her allies are just trying to make sure she gets credit for the great work she did, against all odds, for a man she was once accused of trying to destroy.

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Joan Walsh

Joan Walsh is Salon's editor at large.

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