Dick Morris

Witness for the prosecution?

Dick Morris, conspiracy theorist, could find a way to hurt the president again.

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Two days after the House managers of President Clinton’s impeachment trial “interviewed” potential witnesses at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington (translation: Relax, we’re wearing sweaters. It’s all off the record. Try the clam dip), the big story is that Monica Lewinsky “gave them nothing.” But what did Dick Morris — pundit, prognosticator, political consultant extraordinaire and Witness No. 2 — give them?

Try this: a secretive network of sleazy private investigators, vengeful politicians, shadowy financiers and partisan journalists working to bring down perfectly respectable public figures. That’s right: It’s the Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy, according to Dick Morris.

In the last six months, Morris has become one of the major purveyors of the notion that there is indeed a conspiracy behind the nation’s current crisis. But whereas Hillary Rodham Clinton sees her husband as the victim, Morris says the targets are congressional Republicans Henry Hyde, Robert Livingston, Helen Chenoweth and Dan Burton, who’ve had sexual indiscretions revealed. Instead of lambasting gossipy dirt-digger Lucianne Goldberg, Morris sets his sights on Terry Lenzner, an investigator with the firm IGI and putative White House enforcer. In place of shadowy right-wing financier Richard Mellon Scaife, we get libertine Hustler publisher Larry Flynt.

If Morris sticks to his charges, he could be the perfect witness for the prosecution: a source from within the Clinton White House who testifies to a corrupt operation to obstruct justice — based on absolutely no evidence.

Morris fired his first salvo in an October New York Post column. He revealed how the 1992 Clinton campaign had “maintained a staff of detectives to dig up dirt on women” and how “Paula Jones’ husband [was] dismissed from his decades-long job with Northwest Airlines just as the CEO of the airline [sought] the Democratic nomination for governor of California.” Morris named the dark forces responsible “the Clinton Secret Police,” and wrote that they were probably the same miscreants who tried to silence Clinton accuser Kathleen Willey by stealing her cat and slashing her car tires.

Then, in a Dec. 8 column, Morris theorized that Clinton aides had hired Jack Palladino to investigate members of the White House’s own Travel Office staff, “presumably to get material to tarnish their reputations.” Two weeks later Morris wrote: “Can anyone seriously believe that the ‘outing’ of incoming House Speaker Robert Livingston’s extra-marital affairs is not the work of the White House Secret Police?”

And so it goes. According to Morris, the secret police dig the dirt, White House staffers like Sidney Blumenthal and communications director Ann Lewis quietly shop the goods and compliant White House propagandists in the media publish the salacious details.

It sounded faintly paranoid when Hillary Clinton accused the president’s enemies of belonging to a vast, right-wing conspiracy. But whereas the first lady was mocked — despite the evidence that a coterie of right-wing lawyers has been behind efforts to smear the president all along — media figures can’t get enough of Dick Morris. Because of his longtime proximity to President Clinton, anything Morris says is automatically assumed to have some basis in fact. And because Morris was formerly a Friend of Bill, the usual standard of neutrality is reversed: Morris actually becomes more credible as he gets more vitriolic. Fox News and various talk shows have rushed to bring Morris on the air to explain the machinations of the White House secret police. And although the White House has vigorously denied the accusations, Republicans have become increasingly emboldened in accusing Clinton of being responsible for the revelations about House Republicans.

It should be noted that Salon itself has been the victim of repeated Morris smears. He wrote in two December columns that the White House was certainly behind the story of Henry Hyde’s “youthful indiscretion” with married hairstylist Cherie Snodgrass, and cited as proof the fact that the magazine featured an interview with President Clinton in an early issue — which isn’t true. He attacked investigative journalist Russ Baker’s meticulously documented exposi of Dan Burton, writing that Ann Lewis “has her fingerprints all over” Baker’s story, and that “the likelihood is that Lewis was involved in the decision to give Baker the green light to publish.” Morris politely refused to be interviewed for this article. “I don’t feel comfortable talking to Salon,” he said when we contacted him in the green room at Fox News. “I don’t like it, I think it’s an administration mouthpiece — at least it was when I was there. Goodbye.”

It’s been just two years since Morris, at what should have been his moment of triumph — Clinton’s imminent reelection — was forced to resign, after his long-term affair with call girl Sherry Rowlands was revealed. Newspapers jumped on his tale of toe-sucking and sharing presidential secrets with this woman who was not his wife, and Morris resigned in disgrace. But not too much disgrace. The release of his bestselling political memoir, “Behind the Oval Office,” less than a year later marked Morris’ makeover. He began writing his weekly column in the Post last April. Around the same time, Morris signed on to Fox News as a political analyst and quickly joined the same punditocracy that, two years earlier, had declared him finished.

All in all, Morris has moved from punch line to pundit with head-spinning speed. But Morris is not without his skills. Even his detractors concede his knowledge, experience and political acumen. Until August 1996, he was known for being relentlessly low-profile and serious about his work. Time once called him “the most influential private citizen in America,” a title that — at least while he was running Clinton’s 1996 campaign — may have been appropriate. After all, Morris is credited with almost single-handedly putting a Democratic incumbent president back in office at a time when Republican ascendancy was practically taken for granted. Morris is articulate, brash, knowledgeable and — thanks to Sherry Rowlands — infamous. In other words, he’s perfect for both Fox and the Post.

True, his 1998 election predictions were wildly off-base (“a likely GOP gain of 30-40 seats”), but in the pundit world, this puts him in excellent company. At the very least, Morris’ two-decade relationship with Clinton and two-year stint as his chief strategist were adequate credentials, if credentials were necessary, to appear on “Larry King Live” and take viewers inside the mind of Bill Clinton.

Dick Morris is, in other words, a consummate insider. There’s just one problem: Despite his insider status, he has offered not a single shred of evidence that a White House secret police exists or that such a group has had anything to do with the “outing” of Republicans’ marital infidelities. A look at Morris’ work in the Post reveals a columnist inordinately fond of such words and phrases as “likely,” “probably” and “almost certainly.” “In fact” is frequently followed by someone else’s opinion. Morris relies heavily on unspecified “published reports,” other people’s unnamed, loosely described sources — never does he cite his own — and the ever-judicious Matt Drudge. And the reporting of many of the more creditable sources he cites specifically, such as Cokie Roberts and the Washington Post, frequently suffers from the same drawbacks. What exactly is a “source close to the White House,” anyway?

The most recent example is the now-discredited “Clinton love child” story, in which tabloid newspaper the Star financed DNA testing for Danny Williams, a boy whose mother claimed he had been fathered by Clinton during her days as a prostitute. Most of the nation’s papers of record ignored the story, but Matt Drudge reported it, after which not just the Post, but the Boston Herald and the Washington Times all followed. Then Fox News and MSNBC immediately jumped on-board. When asked by Fox’s Bill O’Reilly whether he thought the allegations where true, Morris responded, “I have no idea, and there’s no point in speculating.” Good so far, but Morris couldn’t help himself. “But if you’re working for Bill Clinton,” he went on, “you have to wonder. The country’s not going to permit another impeachment trial. So that his hope is that he has to wind this thing down before there is conclusive evidence as to whether that boy is his child, if he is … I think that therefore, his handlers want to close this thing down before the DNA test comes out, because once the impeachment is over, it’s never going to be restarted … and that’s why the White House wants it closed down before any other shoes drop.” In other words, decline to speculate, then speculate. And implicitly confirm the notion that there are more “shoes” — tales of Clinton sexual misconduct — to drop.

It’s not that Morris’ claims are always bereft of fact. White House counsel David Kendall is indeed an attorney for the National Enquirer. Information about Henry Hyde’s and Dan Burton’s affairs did come out just as the GOP was preparing to open impeachment proceedings. And yes, Sidney Blumenthal was a Clinton apologist even before he went to work for the White House — where, after all, one would expect him to be one — and once wrote a nasty article about Republican political consultant Ed Rollins.

And the president is certainly no angel. It seems likely, for instance, that Clinton has used Terry Lenzner’s services to investigate Paula Jones and other women claiming to have had affairs with him. But this is standard practice for such cases, especially high-profile ones. Kenneth Starr, for instance, has hired private eyes to do investigative work for the OIC. But a vast, left-wing conspiracy to uncover Republican sexual indiscretions, masterminded by a woman — Ann Lewis — who Morris frequently describes as incompetent?

For all the attention devoted to Morris’ accusations, he has offered no evidence of anything that could be called a White House conspiracy. No transcripts. No memos or other written documents, signed or unsigned, about a secret police. No tapes. No photographs. Not even quotes from unnamed, ill-defined sources. Nothing but an elaborate sequence of suppositions, claims, coincidences and factoids that would make Fox Mulder wince. For a man who spent two years as Clinton’s chief strategist and many more as a key advisor, who, according to his own book, was once the most important player in the White House after Clinton himself, Dick Morris has remarkably little to show.

And yet the existence of a White House secret police is now increasingly taken for granted. Just as the mainstream press reported as fact unsubstantiated allegations from tabloid outlets throughout the Lewinsky affair, reputable newspapers and less-reputable talk shows have taken on Morris’ ruminations as a matter for serious public discussion. Echo-chamber sourcing — where mainstream papers use tabloid speculation as the basis for news stories, then pundits like Morris use those news articles as their own “reputable” sources — has become the norm.

Now Morris is himself the reputable source. Congressmen who publicly scoffed at the notion of a right-wing conspiracy have repeated Morris’ charges as mantra. Rep. Brian P. Bilbray, R-Calif., for instance, said in December that “anyone who is perceived as a threat to the administration is immediately attacked” as part of the White House’s “scorched earth strategy.” During the same conference, when asked whether he thought the White House had planted the Livingston story, Rep. Thomas J. Bliley Jr., R-Va., replied, “Do you think the sun will come up in the morning?” House whip Tom DeLay has, as usual, called for an FBI investigation.

There’s a real danger here, and not just to Dick Morris’ credibility. For weeks, DeLay has been inviting Republican senators — and only Republicans — over to the Ford Office Building to look at supposed further evidence of presidential wrongdoing, including “actual forcible rape.” Officially, the impeachment managers have decided to ignore these charges. But it would not be cynical to wonder whether resolute Clinton-haters like Rep. Bill McCollum might try to use the trial as an occasion to air Morris’ and DeLay’s accusations in a public and credibility-lending forum like the Senate.

Moderate Republicans seem to be losing enthusiasm for an extended, wide-ranging trial with witnesses, but the moderates have never really been in charge. The witness issue is still up for grabs, and it’s not exactly clear what the House managers want from Dick Morris. One possibility is that they wish to “clear up” the matter of the Lewinsky-trashing press conference that, according to his testimony, Morris had been planning to call until he was dissuaded by Clinton, who was eager not to alienate Lewinsky.

Morris’ grand jury testimony confirmed that the idea for the press conference came from him, not Clinton. But his testimony that Clinton had vetoed the idea so as not to alienate Lewinsky intrigues House managers, who see it as possible evidence that Clinton was trying to get Lewinsky to lie about their affair. He could also be useful if the House managers decide to call Kathleen Willey as a witness. Rep. James Rogan told MSNBC on Monday that he and his colleagues are more interested in White House attempts to silence Willey — such as those described by Morris in the Post — than in her sexual harassment allegations themselves.

Morris himself says that he and the managers discussed two other topics: the gifts Lewinsky gave Clinton that were later retrieved by Betty Currie, and Clinton’s telling Morris, “We just have to win” — which again could be used to bolster the notion that Clinton waged a no-holds-barred crusade to suppress the story, known in impeachment trial parlance as “obstruction of justice.”

As the perjury charge in Article One begins to seem less of an impeachable offense, even if proven, the House managers are leaning hard on the obstruction-of-justice case. They’d like to paint a sordid tale of heavy-handed, White House-orchestrated conspiracy. Dick Morris is the perfect man for the job.

Nicholas Confessore is a writing fellow at the American Prospect.

Tuesday link dump: I can hear Chuck Grassley’s “no”

GOP splits over gay group, Dick Morris lies, and the shocking truth about bipartisan compromise and healthcare

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Fred Barnes not on a team? Why did GOP pay him?

The Weekly Standard editor claimed political purity in bashing Journolist, but he's on the Republican payroll

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Fred Barnes not on a team? Why did GOP pay him?

In the pages of the Wall Street Journal, Fred Barnes has lately lamented the betrayal of “traditional journalism” by the liberal denizens of Journolist — the defunct listserv that conservatives have used to revive the debate over “liberal media bias.” His widely quoted Journal Op-Ed noted that before Journolist, neither liberal nor conservative journalists were likely to be “part of a team,” and went on to add:

“If there’s a team, no one has asked me to join. As a conservative, I normally write more favorably about Republicans than Democrats and I routinely treat conservative ideas as superior to liberal ones. But I’ve never been part of a discussion with conservative writers about how we could most help the Republican or the conservative team.”

This assertion of political purity struck me as false, coming from a journalist who has appeared repeatedly as a speaker at Republican Party events across the country — a breach of the political boundaries of “traditional journalism” that few, if any, of the writers on Journolist, for example, would ever contemplate.

Nevertheless, it is true that Barnes has enjoyed greater credibility than other journalists on the partisan right throughout his career. After all, he is a former reporter for such publications as the Washington Star, the Baltimore Sun and the New Republic. He was once a Nieman Fellow at Harvard and served as one of three panelists for the first nationally televised debate between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale in 1984.

Now, however, there is further evidence that Barnes not only routinely helped Republicans raise money as a banquet speaker, but accepted tens of thousands of dollars from party organizations as well:

• In February 2006, Barnes was paid $10,000 plus travel expenses by Oregon’s Lane County Republican Central Committee to deliver the keynote address at the annual Lincoln Day Dinner. (Thanks to Carla Axtman for research assistance.) These payments, recorded in filings with the Oregon secretary of state, were evidently made through the Premier Speakers Bureau of Franklin, Tenn., which represents other Fox personalities including Sean Hannity, Dick Morris and Mike Huckabee. Barnes is no longer listed on the Premier website, but the company did not respond to phone or e-mail inquiries about its relationship with him.

• In February 2007, Barnes spoke at the annual  Lincoln-Reagan Dinner held by the Republican Party of Fort Bend County, Texas — home of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who purchased a ticket to the event. The party organization’s filing with the Texas Ethics Commission shows two payments of $5,000 each on April 26, 2007, to Premiere Speakers Bureau (with the notation “LRD 2007 Speaker – Fred Barnes”) and travel expenses of $1,823. Photos of a smiling Barnes with various local dignitaries at the event, which netted a reported $70,000 for the party, can be viewed  here.

• In early March 2008, Barnes served as the keynote speaker for the Republican Party of Palm Beach County at its annual Lincoln Day Dinner. Whether he received the customary $10,000 is not clear because the party’s  filing with the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections show only a single payment of $5,500 to Premiere Speakers Bureau on Feb. 18. The committee reported net $120,000 in net proceeds from the event.

Barnes didn’t return a call seeking comment. Neither did a Fox News spokeswoman. The question they avoided answering is whether accepting money from party organizations is appropriate for any political journalist, and whether such payments fall within the ethical guidelines of Fox News. Whatever Fox might say, the Murdoch network’s  long history of excessive coziness with Republican politicians and organizations offers little reassurance.

I hoped to ask Barnes whether he agrees that being on the team payroll means he is indeed “on the team” — the Republican Party team. Understandably, he may prefer not to respond. But he ought to reflect on his standing to criticize the behavior of other journalists, left or right, before he mounts his high horse again.

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Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush."

Why do Republicans (pretend to) hate the Upper West Side?

Growing up on Manhattan's West Side is un-American -- unless you happen to be named Kristol or Podhoretz

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Why do Republicans (pretend to) hate the Upper West Side?Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday,June 29, 2010, before the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on her nomination. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)(Credit: Susan Walsh)

As they attempt to disparage Elena Kagan, the most aggressive Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee are proving that Supreme Court nomination hearings can produce something worse than vapidity: in this instance, gross hypocrisy and barely veiled appeals to bigotry. Whatever the merits or deficits of Kagan may be (and Salon readers know that there are skeptics on the left as well), the quality of the partisan assault so far seems very low, even by the usual standards of this process.

Consider the discussion of her personal background on the first day of the hearings, when Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl directed our attention to the New York City neighborhood where bright young Elena grew up. Quoting a profile from Politico that described her life experience as “distant from most Americans,” Kyl noted portentously that she was raised on “Manhattan’s Upper West Side” before attending Princeton and Harvard Law School, where she eventually served as dean.

Exactly what is so disturbing about the Upper West Side? As Joan Walsh notes, it is a place renowned as liberal in politics, Jewish in ethnicity, and therefore, according to Kyl’s implication, foreign to the nation’s heartland. Never mind that some of the greatest American authors, musicians, actors and artists — including very many who happened not to be Jews — lived and worked in that special slice of urban landscape over the past century or so, including Scott Fitzgerald, Theodore Dreiser, J.D. Salinger, Saul Bellow, Humphrey Bogart, Harry Belafonte and George M. Cohan, an Irish Catholic who won the Congressional Gold Medal in 1936 for composing “You’re a Grand Old Flag,” among other achievements. (Rush Limbaugh used to live there, too. And Joe Scarborough says he “loves” living there with his family today.)

Beyond the narrow and ignorant parochialism of such remarks by Kyl and others, what is most galling is their absolute phoniness. Scarcely anyone on the Republican right ever suggests that Weekly Standard editor William Kristol ought to shut up because he was raised on the un-American Upper West Side, a few blocks from Ms. Kagan. Anyone who does so is rightly rebuked for appealing to prejudice. Are Kristol and all the other neoconservatives who have inhabited that neighborhood, beginning with those named Podhoretz, to be tarred as “un-American” too? In May, Commentary editor John Podhoretz published a timely, quasi-nostalgic essay about his family’s half-century in the neighborhood, candidly dismissing the right-wing stereotypes:

Conservatives sometimes invoke the Upper West Side in their lists of petri-dish-like leftist enclaves along with Cambridge and Berkeley, but despite its homogeneous radicalism, it didn’t then and doesn’t now offer much in the way of interesting, unexpected, or comical ideological excess.

Podhoretz goes on to mention that it was anything but sociologically monolithic or elite:

It might have been the most integrated area in the United States. According to a 1966 study, out of 150,000 residents, 105,000 were white (of whom 40,000 were Jews); 26,000 came from Spanish-speaking homes; and 18,000 were black. “Only in Honolulu,” wrote the journalist Joseph P. Lyford, “is there a greater confusion of blood, ancestry, language, and culture in as small a space.” But though there were racial and ethnic tensions aplenty, and these would grow exponentially as the years passed, the division in the neighborhood was primarily one of class — a division between the middle class and the lower class. (There weren’t many rich people on the Upper West Side then, a situation much altered today.)

Let’s not forget Dick Morris, cousin of Roy Cohn and Upper West Side native, who earned his political spurs in the neighborhood’s Democratic clubhouses. Will Fox News dump the voice of Fox Nation as an Upper West Sider and potential crypto-socialist? Of course not. He’s a Republican now, and those nasty ethnogeographical snarks are reserved for Democrats only.

The spurious resentments encouraged by Republicans only begin with Kagan’s home turf. Moving on to her legal education, they sought to demean the memory of Justice Thurgood Marshall, for whom she clerked — and for whom she expresses unreserved admiration, despite the fact that he called her “Shorty.” The late justice was best known for his life’s work ending legal discrimination in America, culminating in the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision, which struck down “separate but equal” education in public schools. This is a topic that Republicans might wish to avoid, considering their recent embarrassment when Kentucky Senate nominee Rand Paul started a debate over the 1964 Civil Rights Act and its violation of his “freedom” to discriminate in public accommodations. But Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, along with several of his colleagues, could not resist a gratuitous assault on Marshall as a “judicial activist.”

Coming from Sessions, this sounded like a dog-whistle appeal to segregationist nostalgia. But even if that isn’t what he meant, the “activism” complaint is bogus. Republicans endorse activist decisions whenever they like the result. The most notorious example is still Bush v. Gore, but the current Supreme Court majority is just as eager to overturn precedent and engineer society from the bench, as they proved this year in the Citizens United decision. Reversing more than a century of the jurisprudence that upheld congressional authority to regulate corporate political speech, the conservative justices overturned basic precedent to make a sweeping and ominous change in law. Indeed they seized an opportunity to venture far beyond the issues at hand in that case to free corporations from any restriction and corrupt our politics even further.

How did Chief Justice John Roberts justify that outrage, after repeatedly and falsely promising during his nomination hearings to respect precedent? He cited Brown v. Board of Ed, writing that had the court observed precedent in 1954, “segregation would be legal.” Many legal scholars would quarrel with that claim, but the point is plain enough: Activism is fine, as long as we like the outcome.

It is probably a forlorn hope, but before these hearings conclude the Republicans should stop pandering to their dimmest constituencies and instead try to elicit the actual views of this accomplished American woman, who is almost certain to join the high court next fall.

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Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush."

Dick Morris: When he predicts doom, expect sunshine

The Fox News political guru warns that healthcare reform will "eradicate" Democrats -- which may mean there's hope

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Dick Morris: When he predicts doom, expect sunshineDick Morris

Of all the many media prophets of gloom and Democratic doom, nobody can quite match the fury of Dick Morris, Fox News star, Newsmax guru and chief political strategist for a shady outfit called the League of American Voters. Just today I received an “urgent message” from him, touting the dire consequences to ensue from passage of healthcare reform — including an electoral massacre of the Democrats come November.

According to him, voter revulsion “will be enough to eradicate an entire generation of House and Senate Democrats … This is the prospect the House and Senate Democrats who vote for Obamacare will face in the fall of 2010. This is the record they will have to defend. Or, they could save their political lives and vote no!”

Such hysterics must be expected from every carnival barker in Fox Nation, especially a featured player like Morris – and the shrill rhetoric surely helps to separate the rubes from their money, in this case through donations to the League of American Voters, sponsor of this morning’s e-mail and many more from him.

Scamming aside, however, a prediction is a prediction, and Democratic legislators preparing to vote yea on reform should be comforted whenever Morris prognosticates their demise, because he is dead wrong with almost perfect consistency.

Only two months ago, following the election of Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate special election, the excitable Morris looked into his crystal ball and  told Fox listeners that he had seen the effective end of Obama’s presidency. “Let’s just stop for a second and understand the magnitude of the earthquake that hit Massachusetts … ultimately, this is the end of the Obama ascendancy, he will never get another major piece of legislation passed,” he pronounced. (Which must mean that the healthcare bill is almost certain to pass next weekend.)

During the 2008 election cycle, Morris offered many forecasts, none of which were right. Early on he picked Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani as almost certain nominees of their respective parties and trashed John McCain as a sure loser. In January 2007, he told an audience of conservative journalists: “I think what’s going to happen in the world is that Hillary’s going to be the next president.” Not too long after that, he and wife Eileen McGann wrote a column for the New York Post headlined “It’s Now a Rudy Romp.” A year later, he was predicting that Clinton would crash and burn in the New Hampshire primary, right up to the evening before that election. Her tears had proved to voters that she was unfit to serve as president, he explained. When she won the following night, he overreacted again by predicting that she would surely go on to secure the nomination. (Back when Clinton was running for the U.S. Senate from New York in the 2000 cycle, Morris similarly made one delusional prediction after another, claiming that she would never run, withdraw, falter, lose, and so on. She ran and won, of course.)

Among Dick’s wackiest blunders in recent years was his confident assertion — on the eve of the 2006 midterm election — that North Korea would become the overriding issue in that campaign, eclipsing taxes, the war in Iraq, and Republican corruption. As Glenn Greenwald observed back then in a mordant post: “It’s just not possible to be more wrong than this.”

By Election Day, Dick had forgotten about North Korea and could no longer ignore the unanimity of polls showing that the Republicans were on the verge of a historic defeat. (He occasionally gets it right, if he waits until moments before the polls close to place his bet.)

Part of Dick’s problem, in the years since he sold out completely to the Republicans, is his irrepressible urge to spin rather than analyze. This has led him to some fantastically stupid conjectures, captured on video. One of my favorites came in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, when President Dubya made a desultory speech in New Orleans.

On Fox News, Morris rated the weak speech as “fantastic!” Building up a head of steam, he cruelly raised Republican hopes. “The people who said this storm is going to hurt Bush’s presidency,” he declared, “are just wrong.” Defying polls that showed the president’s public approval scraping bottom, he went on to assure listeners that the Katrina fiasco would be nothing more than “a distant memory,” while the city’s recovery would prove to be “a huge positive for Bush. That will be a second term legacy … [Bush] can get all the money he wants out of Congress ’cause of this disaster, the people will be solidly behind him, the media will cover it like crazy and he’s gonna look like Santa Claus.”

Obviously he pulls a lot of these prognostications straight out of his butt, with no polling or expertise required. Certainly there are plenty of polls showing that the Democrats will face serious trouble come fall (although there are also surveys showing a hint of daylight now, too). But when someone like Morris warns of catastrophe, there just may be reason for optimism. 

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Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush."

Congratulations, President Romney!

A good sign for the Republican hopeful: Dick Morris is writing him off

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We’ve got good news and bad news for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Bad news first: Dick Morris says Romney’s got no shot to capture the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

“Romney, I think, is virtually out of this race because he proposed healthcare reform in Massachusetts very similar to Obama’s. It passed, and it’s a disaster in Massachusetts now,” Morris said in a recent interview. (Hat-tip to GOP 12.)

Fortunately for Romney, the good news is very good: Given Morris’ recent history of prognostication, it’s probably best to now consider Romney the front-runner for the nomination, if not a lock to win in the general.

Most people have probably forgotten by now — or, at least, that’s probably what Morris is hoping — but the former strategist for Bill Clinton turned professional Clinton-hater was the author of a book, published in 2005, titled “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.” In it, he and his wife, Eileen McGann, wrote:

[A]s of this moment, there is no doubt that Hillary Clinton is on a virtually uncontested trajectory to win the Democratic nomination and, very likely, the 2008 presidential election ….

But her victory is not inevitable. There is one, and only one, figure in America who can stop Hillary Clinton: Secretary of State Condoleezza “Condi” Rice.

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Alex Koppelman is a staff writer for Salon.

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