Dick Morris

The (un)friendly witness of Christopher Hitchens

The journalist brings all his bile to bear on the president he hates.

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“No One Left to Lie To: The Triangulations of William Jefferson Clinton,” a slim little book by Christopher Hitchens, comes to a close with a slim little index. As anyone who has ever dieted knows, slimness is not achieved without sacrifice. As evidence of the sacrifices Hitchens has made, and as a service to the prospective reader, allow me to offer some names you will not find in the index, nor anywhere else in his trim, tidy tome: Rutherford Institute, the; Arkansas Project, the; Hale, David; Scaife, Richard Mellon; Steele, Julie Hiatt; McDougal, Susan.

But worthiness is not measured by size alone, and though “No One Left to Lie To” is diminutive, it aims to be the Brave Little Diatribe That Could, the book that will once and for all expose the mendacity and corruption and just plain rottenness that is Clintonism. To accomplish that goal, Hitchens will muster all the contempt he had nurtured for Clinton over the past seven years and set off chugging uphill.

It seems appropriate to invoke a children’s story, since the element of instruction lies heavy upon “No One Left to Lie To.” Hitchens means to illuminate those fissures in the Clinton saga that have escaped us — or more probably, according to him, that we have chosen to ignore. And in doing so he has, unconsciously or not, adopted the guise of two familiar figures of moral instruction, shifting between the idealistic Capraesque hero inspired with a shining vision of what government should be and the stern Victorian father upholding virtue by remaining forever on guard against the serpent worming its way into the bosom of decency. You can glimpse this father figure at work in the book’s preface, in the service of a story that, Hitchens eventually gets around to telling us, is not true. His approach in these passages reveals something about the essence of the book.

This story begins in 1995, when Hitchens and his editors at Vanity Fair were approached by a woman claiming to have had a child by Clinton. Photos of the baby provided “an almost offputting resemblance to the putative father.” The reasons Hitchens and his editors decided against pursuing the story are worth quoting:

First of all — and even assuming the truth of the story — the little boy had been conceived when Mr. Clinton was the Governor of Arkansas. At that time, he had not begun his highly popular campaign against defenseless indigent mothers. Nor had he emerged as the upright scourge of the “deadbeat dad” or absent father. The woman — perhaps because she had African genes and worked as a prostitute — had not been rewarded with a state job, even of the lowly kind bestowed on Gennifer Flowers. There seemed, in other words, to be no political irony or contradiction of the sort that sometimes licenses a righteous press in the exposure of iniquity.

As a rationale for not pursuing a story, this line of thought is on par with the question “When did you stop beating your wife?” Hitchens decides that you can’t charge someone with hypocrisy retroactively — that’s the only quarter Clinton is given — and then congratulates himself on his journalistic ethics. But follow the logic of the passage: Had Clinton — “even assuming the truth of the story” — done something to provide for this woman and her child, it would probably have taken the form of padding the public payroll. That he didn’t, Hitchens surmises, is probably due to his racism.

We have entered a strange realm here, where divination meets character assassination. Like someone who gets tipsy on one glass of cheap champagne, Hitchens gets so buzzed on the black-baby scenario that it isn’t until three pages into the tale that he gets around to telling us it proved to be false. And even then he doesn’t come all the way down from his high: “Still, I couldn’t but notice that White House spokesmen, when bluntly asked about the … story by reporters, reacted as if it could be true.” What a beautifully Orwellian construct! And how convenient. Hitchens can claim he’s fulfilled his ethical obligations as a journalist while spreading a smear story. “For reasons of professional rather than political feeling,” he concludes, “I felt glad that [Vanity Fair editor] Graydon Carter and I had put privacy (and scruples that arose partly from the fatherhood of our own daughters) ahead of sensation all those years ago.” So fatherhood (Hitchens has dedicated the book to his daughters) and, he claims, concern for Chelsea Clinton are what held him in check. Young womanhood can sleep soundly tonight. Vicar Hitchens is on the watch.

It’s interesting to note, though, that Monica Lewinsky is only occasionally the recipient of this paternal benevolence. When accused of being a stalker, she is “a defenseless and vulnerable young woman.” But when it’s time to assail Clinton’s behavior, she becomes “the president’s comfort-woman-du-jour” and, more bluntly, “the minx.” Luckily for Hitchens, there are other maidens whose virtue needs defending. These include Paula Jones, who, we are told, has been smeared as “a woman so common and dirty that she might even have enjoyed an encounter with Clinton” (though there is mention neither of the funding of her lawsuit by the right-wing Rutherford Institute and its eventual dismissal nor of Jones’ own inability to distinguish a clumsy pass from sexual harassment); Juanita Broaddrick, who, we are told unequivocally, “was raped by Clinton” (though there is no mention of the way she has waffled on that story); and, of course, Kathleen Willey (though there is no mention of Willey’s numerous lies, which have been reported by, among others, Hitchens’ fellow Nation contributor Florence Graves). The feminine victim can have no better friend than Christopher Hitchens.

As far as Hitchens is concerned, to take Jones, Broaddrick or Willey at anything less than face value, to question their motives in any way, is tantamount to a smear. Thus, we can assume that he would consider even proof of Willey’s past duplicity — such as Time magazine’s report that she had lied about being pregnant in order to punish the younger soccer coach who had broken off with her — an unspeakably low tactic. Willey first denied that story to the Office of the Independent Counsel; she admitted to it only when the OIC told her it had independent confirmation and reminded her that she had been given immunity. Yet Hitchens considers it perfectly legitimate to print a rumor that Clinton was having “a liaison” with one of the contributors who stayed in the Lincoln Bedroom, though he offers no evidence — let alone proof.

Invective has always been one of Hitchens’ finest talents. But in “No One Left to Lie To,” his invective is joined, more often than not, to the telltale sign of the bluenose: the barely concealed excitement over what disgusts him. Dick Morris, in particular, pushes Hitchens to heights of repelled oratory (“wasting his substance … with harlots and high living”) that seem more appropriate to Victorian potboilers:

He and Mr. Clinton shared some pretty foul evenings together, bloating and sating themselves at public expense while consigning the poor and defenseless to yet more misery. The kinds of grossness and greed in which they indulged are perfectly cognate with one another — selfish and fleshy and hypocritical and exploitive. “The Monster,” Morris called Clinton when in private congress with his whore. “The Creep,” she called Morris when she could get away and have a decent bath.

It’s easy to forget, while wallowing through passages like that, that there is a thesis to this book. Its essence can be found in the subtitle “The Triangulations of William Jefferson Clinton,” and it boils down, more or less, to the notion that Clinton has courted the left with his stated intentions while appeasing the right with his actions. And the damnable thing about “No One Left to Lie To” is that had Hitchens focused on that argument, he might have produced a very compelling and very damaging book. Early on during the 1996 presidential campaign, when it had become evident that leftists were willing to accept policy decisions from Clinton that they would have condemned from a right-winger, I decided that I couldn’t support his reelection. The callous Welfare Reform Act (a name that disguised its true intentions); the (similarly misnamed) Defense of Marriage Act, with its craven middle-of-the-night signing; the First Amendment-trashing Communications Decency Act — those were pieces of legislation that might have been expected of the far right. And when I expressed that opinion to liberal friends, they told me darkly that failing to vote for Clinton was risking a Dole victory. But the liberals I knew simply refused to acknowledge that a significant number of Clinton’s policies were anathema to their beliefs.

Those policies — which may have delivered the final blow to old-style Democratic liberalism and at any rate gave rise to the disguised, often rigid, conservatism of what has come to be characterized as “centrist” positions — could have been the basis for a book about America’s turn to the right. Certainly Hitchens recalls some episodes that bring nothing but shame upon Clinton, that make him look just as calculating and slimy as Hitchens claims he is. Perhaps the worst was Clinton’s return to Arkansas during the 1992 presidential campaign to oversee the execution of a mentally handicapped death-row prisoner named Rickey Ray Rector. The execution went horribly wrong, with Rector’s arm finally being slashed to insert a catheter when a vein for the lethal injection could not be found. (Rector was clearly unable to comprehend what was happening — thinking that his executioners were doctors coming to his aid, he attempted to assist them.) And it’s not particularly difficult to conclude that, taking place as it did during the New Hampshire primary, this execution was Clinton’s preemptive strike against charges of being soft on crime — that he was damned if anyone was going to catch him off guard by asking what he’d do if Hillary were raped and murdered.

At moments like this, Hitchens is once again the writer who has such a talent for marshaling exactly the facts people don’t want to hear — a talent he has taken a lot of flak for even when he’s been on solid ground. I know of no better way to startle people than to give them Hitchens’ brilliant polemic “The Missionary Position,” which should have laid the myth of Mother Teresa’s saintliness to rest once and for all.

But in “No One Left to Lie To,” Hitchens almost always overplays his hand, coloring in decisions that are incompetent or mendacious or just plain wrong with hints of dark and covert deeds. In the case of the disastrous August 1998 bombing of a pharmaceutical factory in Sudan, we are told that Clinton was appeasing Southern Christians who were lobbying Congress to prohibit business with countries that discriminate against Christians. At other times Hitchens writes with the outraged disgust of someone just discovering that politics, much like journalism, is an incredibly dirty business that brings you into contact with all sorts of disreputable people.

When there is no real evidence of wrongdoing, Hitchens allows mere association to suffice. It isn’t making excuses for corruption to suggest that a political writer of some years’ experience is striking a note of willful naiveti by pretending shock that certain shady people have easy access to political leaders. Those people are, to Hitchens, exactly the sort with whom the Clintons belong, and the inference he makes again and again is that theirs is a particularly Southern species of depravity. He is not as obvious as most writers who can barely hide their disgust with white Southerners. “He had successfully imported unsavory Arkansas business practices to Washington”: Note that the practices are intrinsic not to Clinton or his tenure as governor but to the state. Hitchens raises the charge of racism in the story of Clinton’s withdrawal of Lani Guinier’s nomination. (Cowardly, yes, but racist?) In the midst of a passage describing the results of Clinton’s scaling back welfare, Hitchens tosses in the wholly unsubstantiated complaint that women who still receive benefits are “not infrequently pressed for sexual favors as the price of the ticket”; the clear implication is of a plantation state presided over by debauched Massa Bill.

Elsewhere there are out-of-the-blue references to “the tawdry pieties of Baptist and Methodist hypocrisy” and to Clinton’s making “the most of his Dixie drawl.” And in the spirit of the late Albert Goldman’s famous reference to Elvis’ “uncircumcised … ugly hillbilly pecker,” Hitchens eventually gets around to jeering the presidential member: “Indeed, [Paula Jones] implied that it would have taken two of his phalluses to make one normal one, which could even be part of the reason why he paid her the sum of $840,000 to keep quiet.” Not only a lying, whoring, wholly corrupt Bubba but a small-dicked one as well.

Like the Republicans who drove the impeachment machine, Hitchens is motivated by his disgust for the man. Like them he trots out the ludicrous rationale that Clinton’s relations with Monica Lewinsky are the public’s business both because they took place in a public building, the White House (are the relations between the president and his wife subject to the same scrutiny?), and because Clinton’s efforts to involve Vernon Jordan in obtaining a job for Lewinsky amounted to obstruction of justice (though the time line Clinton’s lawyers demonstrated in the Senate hearings pretty thoroughly demolished that supposition). And like the right-wingers who were determined to get Clinton, he refers to the president’s head inquisitor with the respectful appellation “Judge Starr” — a correct title, to be sure, but one that tells us a good deal about the person who uses it.

Suffice to say that Hitchens is not concerned with Starr’s abuses — the leaks, the intimidation of witnesses, the smearing of reputations and the burdening of lives with legal bills — nor with the consistent rejection of Starr’s charges by both the public and the juries who heard the cases that were the withered fruits of his investigation. He isn’t concerned with Starr’s ties to the Jones lawsuit (“It’s not much of a riposte … for Clinton’s people to say that the unfashionable nobody [Jones] had some shady right-wing friends. However shady they were, they didn’t fall to the standard of Dick Morris”) or with the notion that the impeachment was an attempted coup: “a coup refers, properly as well as metaphorically, to an abrupt seizure of power by unelected forces.” But what happens when the elected flout the will of the electorate?

Yet perhaps we should be grateful that Hitchens doesn’t go too far into the impeachment; we are thus spared further embarrassment. When an unnamed Democratic senator points out that the Republican House managers “haven’t presented the case very well,” Hitchens’ response is “as if the Republicans had really been allowed to present their case at all.” What do you do with a claim so far removed from reality?

Perhaps the only place you can venture from there is even further into fantasy, which Hitchens does when, inevitably, he gets around to the matter of the affidavit he submitted to the House Judiciary Committee. Immediately he adopts the language of the victim: “At this point, I became the hostage of a piece of information that I possessed.” Hitchens had come into possession of the information that turned him into Fay Wray at a lunch with his friend Sidney Blumenthal, the White House aide, when Blumenthal told him he had learned from Clinton that the president was being threatened by Monica Lewinsky. Hitchens’ defense of the affidavit is much the same as it has been since February: that he had already told the story many times, including once in print, and that before signing it he had “made it plain that I would not testify against anyone but Clinton, and only in his Senate trial.”

It’s hard to separate the sheer deceit in that claim from the self-deceit. A signed affidavit to a Congressional committee is, unlike a press story, a document with legal ramifications, and Hitchens knew it. And he obviously knew that the damage inflicted by an affidavit stating that Blumenthal had lied in his testimony could not be limited to Clinton. The idea that Hitchens wouldn’t be hurting his friend was clearly a fantasy — but perhaps fantasy is where Hitchens has been heading all along. “I would not testify against anyone but Clinton, and only in his Senate trial.” Having been denied that opportunity, he has presented us with “No One Left to Lie To,” the star turn he didn’t get on the witness stand. And as the book builds up to the rhetorical flourishes of its conclusion (“It took no time to make up my mind that I wouldn’t protect Clinton’s lies, or help pass them along. I wasn’t going to be the last one left to lie to”), we can hear music swelling, see the spotlights focusing, take in the camera rolling — “I’m ready for my close-up now, Justice Rehnquist.” The issues Hitchens is writing about are big. It’s his ethics that got small.

Charles Taylor is a columnist for the Newark Star-Ledger.

Tuesday link dump: I can hear Chuck Grassley’s “no”

GOP splits over gay group, Dick Morris lies, and the shocking truth about bipartisan compromise and healthcare

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Fred Barnes not on a team? Why did GOP pay him?

The Weekly Standard editor claimed political purity in bashing Journolist, but he's on the Republican payroll

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Fred Barnes not on a team? Why did GOP pay him?

In the pages of the Wall Street Journal, Fred Barnes has lately lamented the betrayal of “traditional journalism” by the liberal denizens of Journolist — the defunct listserv that conservatives have used to revive the debate over “liberal media bias.” His widely quoted Journal Op-Ed noted that before Journolist, neither liberal nor conservative journalists were likely to be “part of a team,” and went on to add:

“If there’s a team, no one has asked me to join. As a conservative, I normally write more favorably about Republicans than Democrats and I routinely treat conservative ideas as superior to liberal ones. But I’ve never been part of a discussion with conservative writers about how we could most help the Republican or the conservative team.”

This assertion of political purity struck me as false, coming from a journalist who has appeared repeatedly as a speaker at Republican Party events across the country — a breach of the political boundaries of “traditional journalism” that few, if any, of the writers on Journolist, for example, would ever contemplate.

Nevertheless, it is true that Barnes has enjoyed greater credibility than other journalists on the partisan right throughout his career. After all, he is a former reporter for such publications as the Washington Star, the Baltimore Sun and the New Republic. He was once a Nieman Fellow at Harvard and served as one of three panelists for the first nationally televised debate between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale in 1984.

Now, however, there is further evidence that Barnes not only routinely helped Republicans raise money as a banquet speaker, but accepted tens of thousands of dollars from party organizations as well:

• In February 2006, Barnes was paid $10,000 plus travel expenses by Oregon’s Lane County Republican Central Committee to deliver the keynote address at the annual Lincoln Day Dinner. (Thanks to Carla Axtman for research assistance.) These payments, recorded in filings with the Oregon secretary of state, were evidently made through the Premier Speakers Bureau of Franklin, Tenn., which represents other Fox personalities including Sean Hannity, Dick Morris and Mike Huckabee. Barnes is no longer listed on the Premier website, but the company did not respond to phone or e-mail inquiries about its relationship with him.

• In February 2007, Barnes spoke at the annual  Lincoln-Reagan Dinner held by the Republican Party of Fort Bend County, Texas — home of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who purchased a ticket to the event. The party organization’s filing with the Texas Ethics Commission shows two payments of $5,000 each on April 26, 2007, to Premiere Speakers Bureau (with the notation “LRD 2007 Speaker – Fred Barnes”) and travel expenses of $1,823. Photos of a smiling Barnes with various local dignitaries at the event, which netted a reported $70,000 for the party, can be viewed  here.

• In early March 2008, Barnes served as the keynote speaker for the Republican Party of Palm Beach County at its annual Lincoln Day Dinner. Whether he received the customary $10,000 is not clear because the party’s  filing with the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections show only a single payment of $5,500 to Premiere Speakers Bureau on Feb. 18. The committee reported net $120,000 in net proceeds from the event.

Barnes didn’t return a call seeking comment. Neither did a Fox News spokeswoman. The question they avoided answering is whether accepting money from party organizations is appropriate for any political journalist, and whether such payments fall within the ethical guidelines of Fox News. Whatever Fox might say, the Murdoch network’s  long history of excessive coziness with Republican politicians and organizations offers little reassurance.

I hoped to ask Barnes whether he agrees that being on the team payroll means he is indeed “on the team” — the Republican Party team. Understandably, he may prefer not to respond. But he ought to reflect on his standing to criticize the behavior of other journalists, left or right, before he mounts his high horse again.

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Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush."

Why do Republicans (pretend to) hate the Upper West Side?

Growing up on Manhattan's West Side is un-American -- unless you happen to be named Kristol or Podhoretz

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Why do Republicans (pretend to) hate the Upper West Side?Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday,June 29, 2010, before the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on her nomination. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)(Credit: Susan Walsh)

As they attempt to disparage Elena Kagan, the most aggressive Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee are proving that Supreme Court nomination hearings can produce something worse than vapidity: in this instance, gross hypocrisy and barely veiled appeals to bigotry. Whatever the merits or deficits of Kagan may be (and Salon readers know that there are skeptics on the left as well), the quality of the partisan assault so far seems very low, even by the usual standards of this process.

Consider the discussion of her personal background on the first day of the hearings, when Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl directed our attention to the New York City neighborhood where bright young Elena grew up. Quoting a profile from Politico that described her life experience as “distant from most Americans,” Kyl noted portentously that she was raised on “Manhattan’s Upper West Side” before attending Princeton and Harvard Law School, where she eventually served as dean.

Exactly what is so disturbing about the Upper West Side? As Joan Walsh notes, it is a place renowned as liberal in politics, Jewish in ethnicity, and therefore, according to Kyl’s implication, foreign to the nation’s heartland. Never mind that some of the greatest American authors, musicians, actors and artists — including very many who happened not to be Jews — lived and worked in that special slice of urban landscape over the past century or so, including Scott Fitzgerald, Theodore Dreiser, J.D. Salinger, Saul Bellow, Humphrey Bogart, Harry Belafonte and George M. Cohan, an Irish Catholic who won the Congressional Gold Medal in 1936 for composing “You’re a Grand Old Flag,” among other achievements. (Rush Limbaugh used to live there, too. And Joe Scarborough says he “loves” living there with his family today.)

Beyond the narrow and ignorant parochialism of such remarks by Kyl and others, what is most galling is their absolute phoniness. Scarcely anyone on the Republican right ever suggests that Weekly Standard editor William Kristol ought to shut up because he was raised on the un-American Upper West Side, a few blocks from Ms. Kagan. Anyone who does so is rightly rebuked for appealing to prejudice. Are Kristol and all the other neoconservatives who have inhabited that neighborhood, beginning with those named Podhoretz, to be tarred as “un-American” too? In May, Commentary editor John Podhoretz published a timely, quasi-nostalgic essay about his family’s half-century in the neighborhood, candidly dismissing the right-wing stereotypes:

Conservatives sometimes invoke the Upper West Side in their lists of petri-dish-like leftist enclaves along with Cambridge and Berkeley, but despite its homogeneous radicalism, it didn’t then and doesn’t now offer much in the way of interesting, unexpected, or comical ideological excess.

Podhoretz goes on to mention that it was anything but sociologically monolithic or elite:

It might have been the most integrated area in the United States. According to a 1966 study, out of 150,000 residents, 105,000 were white (of whom 40,000 were Jews); 26,000 came from Spanish-speaking homes; and 18,000 were black. “Only in Honolulu,” wrote the journalist Joseph P. Lyford, “is there a greater confusion of blood, ancestry, language, and culture in as small a space.” But though there were racial and ethnic tensions aplenty, and these would grow exponentially as the years passed, the division in the neighborhood was primarily one of class — a division between the middle class and the lower class. (There weren’t many rich people on the Upper West Side then, a situation much altered today.)

Let’s not forget Dick Morris, cousin of Roy Cohn and Upper West Side native, who earned his political spurs in the neighborhood’s Democratic clubhouses. Will Fox News dump the voice of Fox Nation as an Upper West Sider and potential crypto-socialist? Of course not. He’s a Republican now, and those nasty ethnogeographical snarks are reserved for Democrats only.

The spurious resentments encouraged by Republicans only begin with Kagan’s home turf. Moving on to her legal education, they sought to demean the memory of Justice Thurgood Marshall, for whom she clerked — and for whom she expresses unreserved admiration, despite the fact that he called her “Shorty.” The late justice was best known for his life’s work ending legal discrimination in America, culminating in the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision, which struck down “separate but equal” education in public schools. This is a topic that Republicans might wish to avoid, considering their recent embarrassment when Kentucky Senate nominee Rand Paul started a debate over the 1964 Civil Rights Act and its violation of his “freedom” to discriminate in public accommodations. But Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, along with several of his colleagues, could not resist a gratuitous assault on Marshall as a “judicial activist.”

Coming from Sessions, this sounded like a dog-whistle appeal to segregationist nostalgia. But even if that isn’t what he meant, the “activism” complaint is bogus. Republicans endorse activist decisions whenever they like the result. The most notorious example is still Bush v. Gore, but the current Supreme Court majority is just as eager to overturn precedent and engineer society from the bench, as they proved this year in the Citizens United decision. Reversing more than a century of the jurisprudence that upheld congressional authority to regulate corporate political speech, the conservative justices overturned basic precedent to make a sweeping and ominous change in law. Indeed they seized an opportunity to venture far beyond the issues at hand in that case to free corporations from any restriction and corrupt our politics even further.

How did Chief Justice John Roberts justify that outrage, after repeatedly and falsely promising during his nomination hearings to respect precedent? He cited Brown v. Board of Ed, writing that had the court observed precedent in 1954, “segregation would be legal.” Many legal scholars would quarrel with that claim, but the point is plain enough: Activism is fine, as long as we like the outcome.

It is probably a forlorn hope, but before these hearings conclude the Republicans should stop pandering to their dimmest constituencies and instead try to elicit the actual views of this accomplished American woman, who is almost certain to join the high court next fall.

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Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush."

Dick Morris: When he predicts doom, expect sunshine

The Fox News political guru warns that healthcare reform will "eradicate" Democrats -- which may mean there's hope

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Dick Morris: When he predicts doom, expect sunshineDick Morris

Of all the many media prophets of gloom and Democratic doom, nobody can quite match the fury of Dick Morris, Fox News star, Newsmax guru and chief political strategist for a shady outfit called the League of American Voters. Just today I received an “urgent message” from him, touting the dire consequences to ensue from passage of healthcare reform — including an electoral massacre of the Democrats come November.

According to him, voter revulsion “will be enough to eradicate an entire generation of House and Senate Democrats … This is the prospect the House and Senate Democrats who vote for Obamacare will face in the fall of 2010. This is the record they will have to defend. Or, they could save their political lives and vote no!”

Such hysterics must be expected from every carnival barker in Fox Nation, especially a featured player like Morris – and the shrill rhetoric surely helps to separate the rubes from their money, in this case through donations to the League of American Voters, sponsor of this morning’s e-mail and many more from him.

Scamming aside, however, a prediction is a prediction, and Democratic legislators preparing to vote yea on reform should be comforted whenever Morris prognosticates their demise, because he is dead wrong with almost perfect consistency.

Only two months ago, following the election of Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate special election, the excitable Morris looked into his crystal ball and  told Fox listeners that he had seen the effective end of Obama’s presidency. “Let’s just stop for a second and understand the magnitude of the earthquake that hit Massachusetts … ultimately, this is the end of the Obama ascendancy, he will never get another major piece of legislation passed,” he pronounced. (Which must mean that the healthcare bill is almost certain to pass next weekend.)

During the 2008 election cycle, Morris offered many forecasts, none of which were right. Early on he picked Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani as almost certain nominees of their respective parties and trashed John McCain as a sure loser. In January 2007, he told an audience of conservative journalists: “I think what’s going to happen in the world is that Hillary’s going to be the next president.” Not too long after that, he and wife Eileen McGann wrote a column for the New York Post headlined “It’s Now a Rudy Romp.” A year later, he was predicting that Clinton would crash and burn in the New Hampshire primary, right up to the evening before that election. Her tears had proved to voters that she was unfit to serve as president, he explained. When she won the following night, he overreacted again by predicting that she would surely go on to secure the nomination. (Back when Clinton was running for the U.S. Senate from New York in the 2000 cycle, Morris similarly made one delusional prediction after another, claiming that she would never run, withdraw, falter, lose, and so on. She ran and won, of course.)

Among Dick’s wackiest blunders in recent years was his confident assertion — on the eve of the 2006 midterm election — that North Korea would become the overriding issue in that campaign, eclipsing taxes, the war in Iraq, and Republican corruption. As Glenn Greenwald observed back then in a mordant post: “It’s just not possible to be more wrong than this.”

By Election Day, Dick had forgotten about North Korea and could no longer ignore the unanimity of polls showing that the Republicans were on the verge of a historic defeat. (He occasionally gets it right, if he waits until moments before the polls close to place his bet.)

Part of Dick’s problem, in the years since he sold out completely to the Republicans, is his irrepressible urge to spin rather than analyze. This has led him to some fantastically stupid conjectures, captured on video. One of my favorites came in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, when President Dubya made a desultory speech in New Orleans.

On Fox News, Morris rated the weak speech as “fantastic!” Building up a head of steam, he cruelly raised Republican hopes. “The people who said this storm is going to hurt Bush’s presidency,” he declared, “are just wrong.” Defying polls that showed the president’s public approval scraping bottom, he went on to assure listeners that the Katrina fiasco would be nothing more than “a distant memory,” while the city’s recovery would prove to be “a huge positive for Bush. That will be a second term legacy … [Bush] can get all the money he wants out of Congress ’cause of this disaster, the people will be solidly behind him, the media will cover it like crazy and he’s gonna look like Santa Claus.”

Obviously he pulls a lot of these prognostications straight out of his butt, with no polling or expertise required. Certainly there are plenty of polls showing that the Democrats will face serious trouble come fall (although there are also surveys showing a hint of daylight now, too). But when someone like Morris warns of catastrophe, there just may be reason for optimism. 

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Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush."

Congratulations, President Romney!

A good sign for the Republican hopeful: Dick Morris is writing him off

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We’ve got good news and bad news for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Bad news first: Dick Morris says Romney’s got no shot to capture the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

“Romney, I think, is virtually out of this race because he proposed healthcare reform in Massachusetts very similar to Obama’s. It passed, and it’s a disaster in Massachusetts now,” Morris said in a recent interview. (Hat-tip to GOP 12.)

Fortunately for Romney, the good news is very good: Given Morris’ recent history of prognostication, it’s probably best to now consider Romney the front-runner for the nomination, if not a lock to win in the general.

Most people have probably forgotten by now — or, at least, that’s probably what Morris is hoping — but the former strategist for Bill Clinton turned professional Clinton-hater was the author of a book, published in 2005, titled “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.” In it, he and his wife, Eileen McGann, wrote:

[A]s of this moment, there is no doubt that Hillary Clinton is on a virtually uncontested trajectory to win the Democratic nomination and, very likely, the 2008 presidential election ….

But her victory is not inevitable. There is one, and only one, figure in America who can stop Hillary Clinton: Secretary of State Condoleezza “Condi” Rice.

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Alex Koppelman is a staff writer for Salon.

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