Hillary Rodham Clinton

I'm not Hillary

What do Tipper Gore, Laura Bush, Ernestine Bradley and Cindy McCain have in common? See above.

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NEW YORK — Ernestine Schlant Bradley, the wife of Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Bradley, didn’t mention Hillary Clinton by name. But we all know who was lurking in the subtext when, at a “Women for Bradley Network” fund-raising breakfast on June 2, she talked about what kind of a first lady she’d be.

“I wouldn’t like it if someone came into my classroom and started teaching just because he knew how to read,” Bradley, a comparative literature professor, says. “I don’t want to go out and pretend I’m a political expert on issues. I’m not an expert on health care. I’m not an expert on China.”

Translation: Ernestine Schlant Bradley is not Hillary Rodham Clinton.

It’s a common refrain from the chorus of potential first spouses. From Bradley and Tipper Gore to Laura Bush and Cindy McCain, the nation’s leading candidates for first lady are all embracing more traditional roles in their husbands’ campaigns. Just as the candidates are trying to define themselves in contrast to President Clinton, the leading members of the First Wives’ Club are all keeping a deliberate distance between themselves and the current first lady.

The current crop of prospective first ladies “really does seem — certainly compared to 1996 — a radical departure from” the strong professional-woman role exemplified by Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Dole, says historian Carl Sferrazza Anthony, author of the two-volume “First Ladies: The Saga of the Presidents’ Wives and Their Power, 1789-1990.” In an attempt to avoid the negative images — aggressive, assertive, acerbic and worse — that have dogged Hillary Clinton, the other four first ladies-in-waiting are sending softer messages. The issues they champion are traditional “soft” ones — illiteracy, breast cancer awareness, humanitarian aid for third-world countries. So far, the four leading candidates for first spouse have cast themselves as supportive and demure figures, playing Harriet to their husbands’ Ozzie.

And certainly, none of their husbands have boasted of voters getting “two for the price of one,” as then-Gov. Clinton did in ’92.

All of which is normal, says historian Anthony. “In the wake of a controversial first lady, there’s always speculation about, ‘Now what?’” he says. And the answer is always: something very different.

The most interesting maneuvering comes from Ernestine Bradley and Tipper Gore. Both women display more independence than any of Hillary Clinton’s predecessors, yet they sometimes seem to try to hide their feistiness beneath sensible dresses and even the occasional apron. With their strong personalities, neither of these women seem as different from the controversial Ms. Clinton as their husbands’ campaign aides would probably like.

In her high-profile attempts to cast herself as the nation’s first soccer mom, Hillary Clinton’s ’92 co-cheerleader, Mary Elizabeth “Tipper” Gore, has found herself in almost the same uncomfortable spot as her husband, as she tries to edge away from her first-couple counterparts without seeming rude or unappreciative.

It’s difficult terrain to negotiate. “Tipper Gore doesn’t foresee a policy role,” read an Associated Press headline of March 29. “With four children and aging parents,” Gore bubbled, as if stepping right out of a 1950s commercial for Swanson’s TV dinners, “I find that I only spend so much time on issues that I care about, and I spend a lot of time on keeping the family together.”

Officially, Gore’s public task so far in campaign 2000 has been to embrace the uncontroversial. She appeared alongside her husband on TV talk shows in June to chat up the 10th anniversary of Race for the Cure, a five-kilometer run put on by the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation. And she’s also been dispatched with the hard sell of convincing the world that her automaton husband has a pulse.

“If you’re talking about the fact that the man is somewhat reserved, yes, he is,” she told NBC’s Claire Shipman. “That’s part of his personality. That’s the way he was when he was 17, when I met him. That was something I liked in him, handsome, sexy, a little reserved. Watch out, America.”

She even told Shipman that the vice president sleeps in the nude. “I tell you, he isn’t wearing anything when we go to bed.” It’s hard to imagine the current first lady making such a statement; but, of course, we already know far too much about her husband’s bedroom rituals.

When reporters have picked up on the possible “I am not Hillary” translation of how she foresees her first ladyship, Gore has insisted that she means no disrespect. “Everybody’s different. We’re all different people,” Gore explained.

A senior political advisor for Vice President Gore insists that the second lady isn’t trying to win converts for her husband by subtly assuring the world that in a Gore administration we won’t find Tipper arrogantly trying to revamp the nation’s health care system behind closed doors.

“She is just a fundamentally different person,” the advisor says. “Hillary is an Eleanor Roosevelt figure for her time; she has redefined on her terms what a first lady can do. Hillary’s a polarizing figure. She’s a very strong woman who expresses her views. She’s clearly a woman of the future and there are still people living in a different age who aren’t willing to accept that. Tipper does not necessarily fit that role for anybody pushing for that type. She’s not interested in playing any transformative role through the positions she’s occupying.”

But this is selling the second lady short. In fact, Tipper Gore has been more than willing to embrace controversial issues and serve a policy role both as a Senate spouse and in the Clinton administration. Her bubbly blonde exterior belies a far more involved wonk (or at least wonk-spokesperson), someone not entirely unlike her mother in-law, Pauline LaFon, who was one of the first women to graduate from Vanderbilt Law School.

Tipper was sounding the alarm about the pervasive influence of pop culture on children, for instance, long before most of us had heard of Littleton or even Bill Bennett. Her epiphany came when a babysitter played Prince’s “Purple Rain” for the Gores’ daughter Karenna in the mid-1980s, and Tipper heard the masturbatory lyrics to “Darling Nikki.” After Tipper fielded questions from the younger two Gore girls about Van Halen and Mvtley Cr|e videos on MTV, and a had subsequent conversation with Susan Baker — the wife of President Reagan’s then-Treasury Secretary James Baker — the Parents’ Music Resource Center was born.

Whether you think she’s playing responsible parent or meddling with the First Amendment, Tipper Gore’s leadership on the issue far exceeded that of her husband. While the infamous September 1985 Senate committee hearings on the issue of dirty song lyrics suggested little in terms of actual legislation, Tipper Gore held fast to the PMRC’s hope that the music industry would voluntarily tag their records with warning labels. Musicians and First Amendment activists singled out the blonde Democratic housewife with the silly-sounding nickname, and delivered crushing ad hominem, often vile, personal attacks against her.

Conversely, then-Senator Al Gore told furious testifier Frank Zappa, “I have been a fan of your music … I respect you as a true original and a tremendously talented musician.” Later, right before he launched his 1988 presidential run, Al Gore distanced himself from his wife’s works, telling a group of Hollywood big shots that “I did not ask for the hearing. I was not in favor of the hearing.”

Fourteen years later, in early June of this year, Tipper once again eclipsed her husband when she embraced another controversial issue, revealing that she had been treated for depression, though she refused to disclose the name of the drug. While plenty of pundits speculated that Tipper’s revelation came as a preemptive strike for the 2000 campaign battle, make no mistake: Any admission by a political wife that she has suffered from mental illness and taken psychotropic drugs is courageous.

“The fact that we had the first White House conference on this issue speaks for itself,” says the Gore political advisor.

“Tipper’s own decision to discuss her struggle with depression is a testament to her courage and commitment to change attitudes and build understanding about mental illness,” President Clinton said during a recent radio address. Later this year, Clinton announced, Tipper Gore and the surgeon general will “unveil a major new campaign to combat stigma and dispel myths about mental illness” through public-service announcements.

“Tipper Gore I can see very much in the mold of Lady Bird Johnson,” Anthony says. “Johnson had very specific areas of interest — in environmental protection and the Head Start program. I think within a very certain area, which was self-limited to those issues, Lady Bird had an impact. I think someone like Tipper Gore could have a big impact on mental health in that same way.”

Indeed, though she may want to feign the simplicity of a bubbly soccer mom who focuses her energies on her kids and tells the media that her husband sleeps in the buff, Tipper Gore is far more complex and potentially incendiary than that.

But don’t tell anyone — that’s her dirty little secret. It’s much safer to be a non-Hillary, after all.

Those first-lady watchers searching for even more interesting reverbs after the blasts from the HRC THX can also check out Tipper’s one Democratic rival for the office, Ernestine Schlant Bradley.

Despite her insistence that she’ll stay mum on issues of substance outside of breast-cancer awareness, for instance, Dr. Ernestine Schlant — Mrs. Bill Bradley’s professional name — is every bit as intellectual as her Rhodes Scholar husband. Though her lively personality is a more than a tad warmer than that of her frostily elusive hubbie.

Born in Passua, Germany, the former Pan Am flight attendant graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Emory University, where she also went on to earn her master’s and doctorate degrees in comparative literature. A professor of German and comp lit at New Jersey’s Montclair State University, Bradley has co-authored several university textbooks, co-edited “Legacies and Ambiguities: Postwar Fiction and Culture in West Germany and Japan,” and translated Kate Millet’s “Sexual Politics” into German.

She’s also penned three books — two examining the work of Austrian philosopher/novelist Hermann Broch, and “The Language of Silence: West German Literature and the Holocaust,” which was published in March. Hardly the stuff of the little woman who watches soaps all day in between bake-offs.

Thus, it’s tough to imagine that Ernestine Bradley doesn’t have opinions on policy issues. But the message from the Bradley campaign is entirely different. There’s her insistence that she won’t “pretend that I’m a political expert on issues,” delivered at that June breakfast, incongruously packed with Manhattan professional women and hosted by Anna Quindlen, no less. Bradley spokesman Eric Hauser is loathe to describe Ernestine Bradley’s role on the campaign in anything other than the vaguest terms.

“Bill thinks of her as a partner in every sense of the word, and she is a sounding board for him on a lot of things,” Hauser says, “but that is something they keep pretty private, which is appropriate.” Having taken a leave of absence from Montclair State University in May, she’s now “an active part of the campaign,” making solo runs to Iowa and California. But “the extent to which Bill Bradley talks to his wife about policy is something that they keep to themselves.”

When I ask if breast-cancer awareness (she is a breast-cancer survivor) is the only issue she would be active in promoting from the mini-bully pulpit of the first lady’s cozy-laden office, Hauser again shakes me off, relating that “she has said that it’s way too early to think about what her agenda might be.”

Odd talk from a campaign that heralds Dr. Schlant as its “secret weapon” on the stump. But then, as Hillary Clinton has found out, weapons can backfire. And in a nation still coming to terms with how it likes its women, a strong, intellectual, independent woman doesn’t always sell.

Cindy Hensley McCain may be the first-lady-in-waiting with the most baggage, though for vastly different reasons than Hillary Clinton.

Cindy Hensley grew up in Arizona society with beauty and wealth and central air conditioning. Born to Jim and Marguerite Hensley, who own one of the largest Anheuser-Busch distributors in the nation, she went to the University of Southern California, where she got her master’s in Special Education. In 1980, she married a divorced war hero almost 20 years her senior, John McCain, the U.S. Navy liaison officer to the U.S. Senate. Then-Sen. Bill Cohen, R-Maine, was his best man; then-Sen. Gary Hart, D-Colo., was a groomsman.

Two years later, McCain was elected to the House; four years after that, he joined Cohen and Hart in the Senate.

In 1988, Cindy McCain founded the Arizona Voluntary Medical Team, or AVMT, a non-profit organization that organized trips for doctors and nurses to third-world countries where disaster had struck — Micronesia, Nicaragua, Bangladesh, El Salvador.

While at Mother Teresa’s orphanage in Bangladesh, Cindy adopted a child and helped coordinate the adoption of another little girl for Wes Gullett, a family friend. “She’s just that kind of person,” Gullett says. “She saw these kids in need and said, ‘They can have a better life in America. How can I help them?’ She’s done that throughout her life.”

In August 1993, she and the AVMT were honored with an award from Food for the Hungry. “She looks beyond politics and military action in an effort to provide the world’s children access to their basic right of medical care,” said the group’s president.

But it was already becoming clear that Cindy McCain’s life was not all altruism and awards. The previous year, volunteer doctors began complaining that Cindy McCain had been using their DEA numbers. The Drug Enforcement Agency itself had been calling and asking about rather sizable orders of Percocet, an addictive painkiller. Hundreds of Percocets were missing from AMVT’s inventory.

In August 1994, a long, grim and protracted scandal blew open. What eventually came out is that Cindy McCain had been addicted to painkillers such as Percocet ever since she had back surgeries in 1989, sometimes popping as many as 20 in a day. And she had been stealing them from the nonprofit organization she had founded. The lawyer that her husband had used during the Keating Five scandal was put on the case; she eventually signed off on an agreement with the U.S. Attorney’s office that included financial restitution and treatment for her addiction.

There were accusations of blackmail, and a coverup. When Cindy McCain publicly revealed her addiction — saying that she hoped it would give other addicts courage in their struggles — some of her detractors thought it was nothing more than a political preemptive strike.

“Although my conduct did not result in compromising any missions of AMVT, my actions were wrong, and I regret them,” she said in a statement. A few weeks later, the Variety Club of Arizona had to cancel its Humanitarian of the Year Award dinner in her honor because of poor ticket sales.

Since then, McCain has kept a comfortable distance from the media. She continues her charity work, traveling around the world (the Balkans in May), and founding another nonprofit in 1995 — the Hensley Family Foundation, which donates money for children’s programs in Arizona and the rest of the country.

“She’s involved in great humanitarian efforts, on top of being a very busy mother, which she sees as her main priority,” says Sen. McCain’s campaign spokesman, Howard Opinsky. “She sees herself as very traditional first lady, and she’s very proud of that fact.”

Understandably, Cindy McCain is wary of reporters. One reporter tells the story of a press event at the McCains’ Arizona house where she’d roped the media off, much to her husband’s chagrin. “That’s just the way she operates,” says Gullett, now a fulltime staffer on the McCain 2000 campaign, who says that Cindy has always kept a low profile. “She’s not shy or anything; she’s just a private person. Part of that is that she grew up and lived in Phoenix all her life, and we’re kind of private people … we like to keep to ourselves.”

Opinsky insists that Cindy McCain’s low profile is in no way attributable to her relatively recent scandal. “She talks about the situation and how she was able to overcome it,” he says. “She’s very proud of her ability to overcome it and get clean.” He says that her role as first lady would probably include talking about addiction, in addition to more comfortable subjects like children and humanitarian aid. “She really hasn’t given that much thought so far,” says Opinsky. “But those are issues she’s involved with today and she has said she wants to continue with those things.”

Aside from her good works and bad habit, members of the Arizona media don’t seem to know much about her. She even stays out of the society pages. A spokesman for the McCain 2000 campaign couldn’t even tell me whether or not the candidate’s wife had ever appeared with him on the stump. Staffers acknowledge their slight discomfort whenever anyone asks about her; she prefers to stay hidden.

That anonymity going to be tough to maintain if her husband’s campaign catches on — which is the point, right? Aside from a “family” journal she occasionally pens for her husband’s Web site, Cindy McCain seems to be taking the concept of a stay-at-home mom to an extreme.

“It’ll change somewhat,” Gullett says.

The starkest anti-Hillary of all is the current front-runner for the office. It’s clear to all who meet her that Laura Welch Bush — the demure Texan who tamed the once-wild mustang now known as Texas Governor George W. Bush — differs considerably from the woman whom she would succeed, and not just regarding the apparent success of her bronco-busting.

A former elementary school teacher and librarian, Laura Bush exudes proper ladylike schoolteacher manners and discipline. Texas reporters say that though she’s growing more comfortable in the campaign limelight, she does not relish it, often preferring to huddle anonymously in the back of the rooms during Dubya’s gubernatorial meet-and-greets. She prefers to focus her energies on raising her twin teenage daughters. Though she taught until her daughters were born, she is the female prototype whom Hillary Clinton derided in ’92 for staying at home and baking cookies, and not pursuing the professional path Hillary pursued at the now-infamous Rose Law Firm.

“She’s a very loving, caring, compassionate person, and America would see that and feel that,” says George W.’s friend and money man, Don Evans. “Her priorities are her faith and her family and her friends.” As first lady of Texas, Laura Bush has spent her capital on that most uncontroversial issue that her mother-in-law, former first lady Barbara Bush, addressed: combating illiteracy.

But while George W.’s brother, Marvin Bush, says that his sister-in-law, is “cerebral and very steady,” he says that as a first lady she would be even more subdued and less of a spitfire than his mother. “My mom would probably be a little more of a maverick than Laura,” Marvin says, “Mom has that wise-cracking sense of humor. Laura’s more mellow.” Marvin says that first lady Laura Bush would combine the altruism of his mother with the “grace” of Jackie Kennedy.

When a potential first lady makes matronly Barbara Bush sound wild and crazy, you know you’re talking about a return to more subdued times than Hillary wrought.

“Look,” George W. said to the Texas Monthly in 1996, “Laura and I read the paper together every morning, and we discuss different issues. She’s always asking what I’m going to be doing about this or that. But I think she trusts me to make the right decisions.”

Of course, in an article on first ladies, we can’t ignore the question “What about Bob?” After all, we have a relatively serious candidate for first gentleman: former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, Republican of Kansas.

Bob Dole is of course a special entity unto himself. Having run for the vice presidency in ’76, and the presidency in ’80, ’88 and ’96, he can be forgiven for any Schadenfreude he might be taking in his wife’s somewhat underwhelming candidacy. In fact, some believed Bob’s biggest attention-getter to date — admitting he was mulling over a financial contribution to the campaign coffers of his wife’s rival, Sen. John McCain — underscored not only the obvious gender difference afoot, but might have provided a disconcerting peek into the sourpuss recesses of a candidate who was always a bridesmaid, never a bride.

If any senator alive had earned the right not just to the nomination but the whole enchilada, it was the war hero turned loyal GOP foot soldier. The speculation was that his rambling mid-May New York Times interview — in which he discussed giving cash to McCain — was directly attributable to the fact that his wife’s new role in the limelight was eating him up inside.

While that interpretation might be understandable, it’s also forgetful. Bob Dole’s always been a straight shooter. For him to suddenly emerge as a spirit bunny for Liddy 2000, after a generation and a half of callin’ it like it is, would just be contrary to his nature. So saying, as he did, that his wife’s campaign was “getting there,” or that “It’s too early to tell” if she’d be able to mount a strong challenge to Al Gore, well, that’s just Bob being honest. Plus, as chuckling pundits failed to mention, when John McCain was a POW at the Hanoi Hilton, Bob Dole was wearing a POW bracelet in his honor almost the entire time — years before he married Elizabeth Hanford.

Still, since those comments, Bob Dole has all but vanished. Dole himself didn’t return calls for comment, but Elizabeth Dole’s communications director, Ari Fleischer, joked that he had been “sent to the woodshed” after the NYT interview — one can only hope that the trip didn’t end up at the woodchipper — but adds that now the former senator “has escaped.”

So what kind of role can we expect from the first “first gentleman” (the nomenclature that Fleischer says “the two of them have decided upon”)? Interestingly, even though Bob Dole could serve as a cabinet secretary for anyone — and has even carried out various missions in Kosovo on behalf of his ’96 opponent — the first thing Fleischer says is that “Elizabeth Dole has made it clear that it will not be a co-presidency.”

In fact, the picture Fleischer paints of the former senate majority leader is that of a traditional first spouse: “The senator will devote considerable amount of time toward helping those with disabilities, as he has done throughout his life.” He adds that the Kansan will also take a role in agricultural issues. But as an advisor, Bob Dole will be just like any other White House spouse. “They have a close marriage,” Fleischer says, and in that role “they talk to each other, share ideas and thoughts like any other couple.”

While Dole would certainly make history as the first first husband, if he adopts a kinder, gentler incarnation, he would also fit a historical pattern. The fact that Laura Bush, Cindy McCain, Tipper Gore, Ernestine Bradley and Dole are not only positioning themselves as non-Hillaries, but are also genuinely different from her, is historically par for the course.

Groundbreaking first ladies are always followed by more quiet types: Florence Harding, who lobbied for equal pay for women, was succeeded by Grace Coolidge, an apolitical teacher for the deaf; Eleanor Roosevelt — a whirling dervish on behalf of civil rights, women’s rights, and the New Deal — begat Bess Truman, who never even gave an interview.

“These sorts of ‘benchmark’ women [like Harding, Roosevelt or Clinton], who seem to somehow embody the popular idealized notion of the new American woman, get a lot of press and a lot of attention, and this whole persona develops that frequently has little to do with who each is as a person,” Anthony says. “They’re always followed by women who are perfectly intelligent and capable, but they’re not lobbyists or public advocates.”

At least, that’s what they want us to think.

Jake Tapper is national correspondent for Salon.

The politicization of the Secret Service scandal

What was once one of the right's favorite government agencies becomes a symbol of waste and moral degradation

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The politicization of the Secret Service scandalPresident Obama, surrounded by members of the Secret Service, upon his arrival in San Diego, Sept. 26, 2011. (Credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

It’s hard to work up much outrage about the Secret Service prostitution scandal, in which 11 members of the president’s elite protective service and various military personnel were found to have picked up escorts in Colombia, where they were doing advance work for the president’s visit. I guess it is probably not a good idea for the people in charge of protecting the president to leave themselves vulnerable to sexual blackmail, but on the other hand we do not live in a John Le Carré novel or “24″ episode, and I don’t think the threat of a honey-trap assassination conspiracy plot is very credible. If members of the Secret Service want to get drunk and hire escorts after work, that is their business. (As Melissa Gira Grant says, the only actual scandal here — and the reason this became an international incident — is that all these guys tried to bilk one of the women out of the money she was owed.)

But the predictable Washington mixture of prurient interest and moral posturing has turned this incident into grist for the scandals-and-investigations mill. And now we have the attempts at somehow making this a winning partisan issue for Republicans. Chuck Grassley, the senator from Iowa who triumphed over adversity and became the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee despite being functionally illiterate, would like to know whether any White House staff also slept with escorts that evening. No one has made the claim, but Grassley’s asking just in case. (For a live peek at a future paranoid right-wing myth in its embryonic stage, read the comments on that Washington Times story: “I can just hear those paper shredders going a mile a minute in the white house, and the document forgers are being called in, you know the same ones that did the birth certificate.”) Grassley was on Fox last night to make sure viewers repeatedly heard baseless speculation as to the involvement of White House staff.

Rep. Pete King, Long Island Republican and stalwart publicity monger, has sent Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan a list of 50 questions about the scandal in order to make it appear that he is very seriously investigating this very serious incident.

For those outside Congress, for whom insinuating escort patronage by unnamed White House staff seems a bit of a reach, the game is to attempt to use the scandal to prove some point the fecklessness of Obama as a leader and his shameful failure to make everyone in Washington stop being so awful and wasteful all the time.

NRO’s Mark Steyn, after praising the fiscal discipline of the agent who attempted to bilk his escort (ugh), suggests that the moral of the story is that we pay too much for presidential security, and that all those agents and fancy bullet-proof Suburbans are wastes of taxpayer funds and evidence of broke post-Imperial America’s profligacy. Sarah Palin, who had every right to be personally aggrieved for once, after it was reported that the agent at the center of the scandal wrote gross sexist things about her on Facebook, was among the first to declare that the problem was with the “culture” Obama has created at the White House. (Karl Rove, smarter than most of these people, suggested that politicizing a Secret Service scandal was dumb and counterproductive. Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan, coincidentally, was elevated to his position under George W. Bush.)

The makeup of the Secret Service, obviously, has very little connection to the political party of the person occupying the White House. Like most American law enforcement agencies, it’s primarily white and overwhelmingly male, and, historically, the culture of the agency has had more than a whiff of machismo. These are not exactly the sort of public sector employees right-wingers get off on demonizing.

In fact, the right has had for years a sort of Clint Eastwood-inspired fantasy of the Secret Service agent as folk hero. Decent, hard-working men putting their lives on the line to protect a bunch of elitist ingrates. That ingratiating phony Bill Clinton and his frigid, hectoring monster of a wife weren’t deserving of such stolid, unflinching loyalty and service.

The fullest expression of this fantasy is in this classic chain email that made its way to every inbox in the nation during the second president Bush’s first term. According to this email, attributed to the unnamed author’s former neighbor, the president’s security detail was constantly disrespected by those awful Clintons and their terrible staff. Hillary Clinton was “arrogant and orally abusive.” “She forbade her daughter, Chelsea, from exchanging pleasantries with” agents. “Al Gore resented Bill Clinton and thought he was to centrist. He despised all republicans.” Agents prayed for Bush to win the election, and their reward was the joy they all felt in the presence of President Bush and his amazing, wonderful wife.

This nonsense has its roots in fake anti-Hillary attacks, attributed to imaginary Secret Service members, that Republican operatives spread to sympathetic media voices starting more or less the day Bill took office. Former Secret Service agents do plenty of gossiping and bitching, most frequently to Ronald Kessler, but their complaints don’t tend to track quite so directly to right-wing fantasy narratives.

But a popular trope is of the upstanding agents blanching at being asked to look the other way as libidinous Democratic presidents — Kennedy, Johnson, and Clinton — womanized. (Clinton was said to have threatened to fire agents who stymied his attempts to have trysts with Monica Lewinsky, though the agent who made the claim admitted to having invented it.) The pat moralism of the conservative Secret Service fantasy makes the agency’s lurid misadventure a bit funnier. It also explains why various people have to somehow convince themselves that the Obama administration somehow degraded the agency, through a lack of “management skills” or the widespread embrace of sexual deviance that is the logical end result of repealing the military’s ban on out gays and lesbians.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

The silly 2016 speculation game

It may be impossible to make any serious predictions about a far-off race, but that has never stopped a pundit

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The silly 2016 speculation game (Credit: AP/Shutterstock/Salon)

Being that it’s still March 2012 and we have no way of knowing who will actually be president by the end of January 2013 (besides “not Ron Paul,” obviously), it would seem to be a bit premature to speculate as to how the 2016 presidential race will shake out. And yet political reporters, finally bored perhaps with the inevitable Republican nomination of Mitt Romney, are already spewing forth predictions. Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has even created a “Sweet 2016″ bracket. 

The most important lesson of terrible premature presidential-campaign speculation is that nearly everyone who engages in it will be terribly, hilariously wrong. It doesn’t matter if you’re a complete buffoon, like Dick Morris, author of the 2007 classic “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race,” or someone fairly serious and “savvy,” like New York Times politics reporter Matt Bai, who posited current nobody Mark Warner as the future of the party in a 2006 Times magazine cover story now best (if barely) remembered for its altered and unflattering photo of the subject.

There will be events no one could’ve predicted — like “obvious” future Republican presidential contender George Allen using an obscure racial slur on camera, or John Edwards being generally John Edwards — that destroy promising careers in an instant.

And there is also the plain fact that the sort of politicians that Washington-based reporters and pundits and political operatives like, and the sort of politicians they think “voters” would like, are often people who have no appeal for anyone outside of their districts or the Beltway. (Like Evan Bayh. Jon Huntsman. And Mitch Daniels, probably.)

Some people turn out to be awful at campaigning: Like Wesley Clark, the general who was going to sweep a troop-worshiping country off its feet and away from George W. Bush, until it turned out that he did not blink like a human. Or Rick Perry, who, it turned out, seems too dumb to dress himself when asked simple questions on television.

There are times when this sort of long-range forecasting is easy until you overthink it: John McCain was the logical 2008 front-runner the moment he addressed the 2004 Republican convention, until you started daydreaming about Fred Thompson’s seductive drawl. Al Gore was pretty obviously going to be the Democratic nominee in 2000, and boredom with his inevitability might’ve had a hand in how the political press helped destroy him that year.

A hell of a lot will obviously depend on whether or not Barack Obama wins reelection. If he loses, Democrats might suddenly find white candidates from the West or the South more attractive. If he wins, we might have to take Joe Biden semi-seriously for a few unlikely news cycles. If Obama ends a second term as popular as Clinton, someone associated with his administration is certainly more likely to be nominated than if Obama’s 2015 numbers look more like Bush’s in 2007.

So let’s get to the predictions, shall we? According to Cillizza, the “number one seed” for 2016 is New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. (Mark Warner is still on the shortlist, by the way. His time will come!)

Cuomo is the reasonably popular governor of a very populous state. He’s thus far managed to balance liberal base-pleasing deeds (gay marriage!) with “moderate” newspaper editorial-board pleasing things (going after the pensions of public employees!). But we’re still talking about a Northeast liberal (or “liberal”) — from New York! — who’s living with but not currently married to a celebrity television cook who makes awful-looking garbage food out of prepackaged garbage food. The Democratic Party might not want to chance another blatantly culturally urban candidate. (I mean urban in the literal sense, and not as weird racial code.) Plus he’s in the honeymoon portion of his governorship, and that job has utterly destroyed its last two holders.

Plus, Cuomo looks like he’s on pace to use up much of the goodwill he built up with liberals after signing gay marriage into law. (So far there’s been his apparent lack of interest in transit, signing awful gerrymandered legislative and congressional district lines, and his property tax cap.)

Joe Biden has run for president twice and never come remotely close to winning a single primary. He’ll be 74 in 2016. As Steve Kornacki already pointed out, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to nominate 70-somethings. He’s also a gaffe-prone goofball whose appeal is that he’s a ridiculous character. I would not put a lot of InTrade money on Joe Biden winning the Democratic nomination in 2016.

Hillary Clinton is a bit younger than Biden, and a lot more serious than Biden. But does she still want to be president? Who knows. (Anyone who says they know is lying.) And if she runs in 2016, does she hire the same asinine campaign team that lost her the nomination in 2008?

After those three, we’re already essentially in “who?” territory with the Democrats. Not to say that someone no one has heard of now won’t be the nominee — with Democrats, you may be more likely to get a relative unknown than with Republicans — but we can’t know which governors or senators will turn out to be Barack Obama (or even John Edwards) and which ones will turn out to be… well, Mark Warner.

And theoretically there would be more women vying for the nomination than just Hillary Clinton. Cillizza posits New York Sen. Kristen Gillibrand — a long shot, in my estimation — and senatorial hopeful Elizabeth Warren, who, if she loses her election, would surely be out of the running, and if she wins, would be … a liberal senator from Massachusetts. So, I dunno, Amy Klobuchar? Sadly, four of the current six female governors are Republicans. The two Democrats are North Carolina’s Bev Purdue, who is currently polling poorly enough that she’s announced that she won’t seek reelection, and Washington’s Christine Gregoire, who seems cool, so let’s just put her on the fantasy shortlist. (Oh, I guess the Times already did.)

But you see where we are, at this point: Randomly tossing out names. It’s like predicting the 2016 NFL Draft. Some of these kids are still in high school!

As for Republicans: If Mitt Romney wins the election, there’s the candidate, fun speculation time done. (Unless Newt and Ron Paul mount a primary challenge?!?) If he loses, the party likely learns the lesson it always learns and lurches to the right for a while, and your front-runner in that case (assuming he doesn’t blow up the party at the convention, I guess?) is Rick Santorum. I made this point already and Dave Weigel concurred. He’s a “true conservative” and he looks like he’ll “come in second” this year, which are both substantial advantages in the Republican race.

Maybe it’s Marco Rubio if Romney makes him the running mate, but the GOP does not often nominate losing running mates, because why would you?

Is Paul Ryan, who frantically introduces numbers-laden fake-serious budgets every year, the future of the party? I happen to think he’s basically a bland weenie who only excites people predisposed to thrill to rich-on-poor economic warefare, but a not insubstantial portion of the Republican Party “elite” seems to like that sort of thing. Mitch Daniels is somehow even less electrifying, but as a governor he has a better shot than Rep. Ryan. And Santorum still seems to have a massive advantage over them all.

(Oh, what about Chris Christie? Yes, well, he’d certainly be fun but he is pretty moderate for the national Republican Party, even if he masks it by being an obnoxious, belligerent bully. And he is woefully unprepared to protect us from CREEPING SHARIAH.)

One guy changes this calculus, obviously: Jeb Bush, because the Bush name exerts some sort of weird hypnotic power over the Republican Party, and they are often forced to do their bidding, even when, afterward, they all regret it. I like to imagine that the nation as a whole has decided that it’s done with Bushes forever, but that is pretty naive. I mean, Nixon got elected twice. Jeb Bush has not actually held office in a while — by 2016 he’ll have been a regular private citizen for nearly a decade — and it’s possible the family has decided to wait for George P. Bush to come of age before reasserting their claim over the White House (oh man, guys, he just turned 35).

The sick need to treat politics like it’s fantasy baseball ensures that there’s absolutely nothing anyone can do to make people not wildly speculate as to what will happen years after an election that is still months away, so I just encourage you to be sensible and responsible about it. (Like, it won’t be Rand Paul.)

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Bill Keller writes newest, dumbest Biden-Clinton 2012 swap piece

Former New York Times editor combines hackneyed analysis with shopworn topic, with predictable results

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Bill Keller writes newest, dumbest Biden-Clinton 2012 swap pieceJoe Biden and Hillary Clinton (Credit: AP/Jason Reed)

Bill Keller, a bad opinion columnist, has written a bad opinion column. It is about how Barack Obama will replace Vice President Joe Biden on the 2012 ticket with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a thing that will not actually happen.

The former New York Times editor has lately been celebrating his return to writing by fearlessly tackling hacky column ideas already exhausted by everyone who was writing bad opinion columns during Keller’s tenure as a person with an actually important job. Having offered his own takes on classics like “The Huffington Post isn’t as good as a real newspaper” and “Twitter is dumb,” Keller today tries the old “running mate switcharoo” scenario.

John Heilemann made the case in August of 2010, but Bob Woodward really kicked it off by pretending a Biden-Clinton switch was “on the table” in October of 2010. That notion — supposedly — can be traced back to pollster grifter Mark Penn, which should have stopped anyone else from bringing it up ever again. But Jonathan Alter took another crack at it last October, and publishing speculation on the switch has become reliable Drudge-bait ever since.

Keller’s column frames the switch as something wished for, instead of predicting it based on the “chatter” of “insiders,” which helps make it merely stupid instead of inherently dishonest. But here are his arguments as to why it would be a good idea instead of a bizarre and desperate stunt:

One: it does more to guarantee Obama’s re-election than anything else the Democrats can do. Two: it improves the chances that, come next January, he will not be a lame duck with a gridlocked Congress but a rejuvenated president with a mandate and a Congress that may be a little less forbidding. Three: it makes Hillary the party’s heir apparent in 2016. If she sits out politics for the next four years, other Democrats (yes, Governor Cuomo, we see your hand up) will fill the void.

One: What? Prove it, maybe? Two: Haha what, again? Congress will get ungridlocked if the president switches vice presidents? To a Clinton? Three: OK, but what if Obama/Clinton loses? And if Obama wins again wouldn’t any Democrat be at a disadvantage in 2016 due to historical trends anyway, making it a “safer” bet to not be his running mate, assuming she actually wants to be president still, which is not at all a given?

But we’re not dealing with observable reality here, as the bit about Clinton’s magical power to un-gridlock Congress demonstrates. We’re in the world of vague assertions about “warmth” and “voltage.” How many electoral votes would running mate Hillary Clinton be worth? Keller never bothers to attempt to make a quantitative guess. This is the closest we get:

Moreover, even if Obama can win without Hillary, there’s a lot to be said for running up the score. If she can do in 2012 what Obama did in 2008 — animate that feeling of historic possibility — the pair can lift some House and Senate candidates along with them. One reason Republicans did so well in the 2010 Congressional elections is that they overcame the gender gap and carried women voters 51 to 49. Those voters will flock back to Hillary, the more so if the Republican ticket is locked into a culture-war agenda. So, by the way, will Hispanic voters, securing such endangered states as Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

Ooh, actual data! The Republicans won women in a midterm election. Hillary Clinton is a woman. So in a presidential general election, women will “flock back to Hillary.” Those women may be Republicans, voting in a Republican wave election, but they are women and so they will vote for Barack Obama if he is next to a woman on the ballot. (Though what about those Hispanics? Shouldn’t Obama replace Biden with a Hispanic woman, in this case? Or isn’t he in fact best off retaining Joe Biden, who is, after all, a white man? From Scranton? White men will “flock back” to Obama once they see that he is friends with a white person.)

The column isn’t just bad analysis — it’s also oddly condescending to Secretary Clinton! It complains that she owes “us” a vice-presidential run after she “raised our expectations” by running for president last time. It calls Clinton “the dutiful Methodist schoolgirl.”

Here’s the line that is secretly the worst:

But the idea that she should replace Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate in 2012 is something else. It has been kicking around on the blogs for more than a year without getting any traction, mainly because it has been authoritatively, emphatically dismissed by Hillary, Biden and Team Obama.

Did you see that? “Kicking around on the blogs.” That’s Keller-speak for “not worth anyone’s time until a real journalist like New York Times opinion columnist Bill Keller brought it up.” The “bloggers” kicking this idea around, as I mentioned earlier, are New York magazine political writer John Heilemann, Washington Post living legend Bob Woodward, and former Newsweek senior editor and best-selling author Jonathan Alter. Those bloggers and their crazy notions!

As a blogger, I know that my silly opinion is not as carefully considered and well-informed as that of former New York Times editor Bill Keller, who is not at all simply talking out of his ass. But even if there were any hint at all that the switch was a possibility, which there isn’t, it would be a stupid idea. Hillary Clinton is already part of the president’s Cabinet, and she and her husband will already campaign for the president’s reelection. Running mates barely nudge the numbers in presidential elections, unless they’re historically awful, which Joe Biden isn’t. The Clintons are among the most divisive figures in American politics — Hillary Clinton’s recent high approval rating has come because she’s not running for anything — and relitigating every Clinton scandal would consume the national political press for weeks if she ended up on the ticket.

The running mate switch hasn’t been successful since the Franklin Roosevelt administration, and the last time a president made a strategic switch to help win a tough reelection, it failed.

And I bet if Obama did make this stupid switch, Bill Keller would write some awful column about how desperate it made the president look. Unless he will have by then moved on to finally writing his “kids today sure are sexting each other a lot” piece.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Fake Democratic pollsters have stupid idea

The Wall Street Journal publishes nonsense from Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell, because they think you're an idiot

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Fake Democratic pollsters have stupid ideaHillary Clinton and President Obama (Credit: AP/Charles Dharapak)

I think it’s best to understand the Wall Street Journal editorial board’s decision to publish any given column by con artist pollsters Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell as basically an expression of contempt for people who read the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

Caddell and Schoen, two loser “Democratic” “pollsters,” regularly publish very lame link-bait columns about how if Democrats want to succeed electorally, they must immediately cease being Democrats, and become, instead, Republicans. This week’s variation on that theme: Barack Obama should step aside (already heard that one last year around this time) and allow himself to be replaced by Hillary Clinton, for the good of the party and the nation.

Even though Mrs. Clinton has expressed no interest in running, and we have no information to suggest that she is running any sort of stealth campaign, it is clear that she commands majority support throughout the country.

Because she’s not running for anything.

So Hillary Clinton should be president instead of Barack Obama, because Obama is too partisan and divisive. America needs a bipartisan plan to attack the deficit and also create jobs, and it is Obama’s fault that that is a vague, magical fairy tale. Hillary Clinton will make this fairy tale real, thanks to the fact that, as we all know, Republicans love cheerfully working with the Clintons for the good of the nation. When a Clinton’s in the White House, partisan politics are always put aside!

This is self-evidently dumb on about ten different levels — Clinton won’t run, President Clinton wouldn’t have any more success negotiating with Congressional Republicans than President Obama, Clinton’s popularity is a result of her not being a partisan candidate for office anymore, if there was such a thing as a “bipartisan” plan to reduce the deficit while also stimulating job growth (and protecting entitlements!) we’d presumably have already decided to act on this fantastical plan, everything resembling such a plan is explicitly supported by the White House and rejected by Republicans, Republicans would not endorse said plans if President Obama promised to go away because then they’d simply want to wait for a Republican to take over for him, and Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen are not, as they claim to be, Democrats — but the Journal published this regardless, as they always do with fresh tripe from Schoen and Caddell.

Schoen — who works for hypothetical future independent presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, though that fact is never, ever disclosed — is a simple hack, precisely as dumb and unprincipled as you’d expect anyone who was once Mark Penn’s right-hand man to be. Caddell angrily left the Democratic party 20 years ago, which is seldom mentioned when he’s trotted out to trash the president on behalf of the right-wing media outlets that pay his rent. But the fact that they’re classic “Fox Democrats” matters much less than the fact that all of their editorials are predictable, wrong, and patently stupid.

As I said, printing their editorials is an implicit admission that you think your audience is credulous and moronic. The people in charge of the Wall Street Journal are savvy enough about politics to know that all of this is bilge and bullshit. They know both that this will never happen and that it’d be a stupid suggestion even if it were within the realm of possibility. They just don’t care. They don’t care that they’re printing garbage, because they figure garbage will get some traffic from those engaged in the same game.

If I were a conservative American I’d be less outraged at the specter of liberal elites hypothetically disrespecting me from their coastal enclaves and much more pissed off that the people on my side are constantly peddling this bullshit.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Does Hillary Clinton get too much credit?

She's a huge foreign policy asset to the president but this week's hosannas feel like overkill

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Does Hillary Clinton get too much credit? Hillary Clinton (Credit: Reuters)

I’m on record as a great admirer of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, going back to her days as New York senator and certainly through her 2008 presidential campaign. But this week’s set of stories depicting the U.S. Libya intervention as “Hillary’s War” (The Washington Post) and an example of Clinton’s “smart power” doctrine (Time Magazine’s cover) go a little bit too far for me. They feel like someone’s effort to upstage or diminish President Obama. For the record, I don’t think the effort is Clinton’s. It may just reflect the mainstream media’s inability to give Obama his due.

Clearly Clinton’s competence is an asset to the president, and her power and credibility reflects well on his ability to work with a former rival. And the Time piece, in particular, makes clear, while praising Clinton, that ultimately Obama makes most of his decisions with a small team of confidantes, and she is not among them. He’s the commander in chief.

And there’s fine reporting in the two pieces. Certainly Clinton deserves credit for using her role to leverage support and resources from other agencies, getting greater control of foreign aid funding and even Defense Department funds to bolster her agenda at State. Elevating the role of the State Department took particular work after George W. Bush ignored and degraded so many American alliances.

But neither piece apportions any share of blame for the downside of Clinton’s expansive diplomacy – her role in pushing a bigger continued U.S. presence in and around Iraq, for instance, flagged Monday by Glenn Greenwald. The continued Iraq presence will also use more of the sometimes lawless private contractors whose role she opposed during the presidential campaign. It also seems a little early to be declaring Libya a decisive victory for American interests, or the cause of human freedom, as the nature of the government that will emerge there remains unclear.

Still, at a time when Obama struggles to get the kind of credit he deserves on the foreign policy and domestic security front – for killing Osama bin Laden and other top al Qaida leaders, winding down the military role in Iraq and toppling Muammar Gaddhafi without losing a single American life – it strikes me as a little unseemly that when credit is given, so much of it goes to Clinton. For her part, at least publicly, Clinton works to turn the spotlight on her boss, telling David Gregory on Meet the Press 10 days ago that “President Obama has passed with flying colors every leadership challenge.” And while she insisted, not convincingly, “I’m out of politics, as you know, David, I don’t comment on it,” she quickly boosted her boss against his potential 2012 rivals.  “I think Americans are going to want to know that they have a steady, experienced, smart hand on the tiller of the ship of state, and there’s no doubt that that’s Barack Obama.”

It feels a little mean-spirited to be raising these questions about Clinton’s coverage on the day she lost her mother, Dorothy Rodham, at 92, but this is the week of the adoring press coverage. Again, I’m a strong Clinton admirer. But there’s something a little odd about the worshipful tone of these pieces. I still see a faint echo of Maureen Dowd’s analysis propping up Clinton and other female administration “hawks” in her continued effort to diminish Obama’s leadership and masculinity.   Dowd seems to be on vacation, or else we might see her to use these two profiles as another reason to pit Clinton against her boss.

I spoke with a close Clinton friend last week who insists the Secretary of State has no interest in either the role of vice president in 2012, or a presidential run in 2016, so I don’t think there’s any crusade for either job behind these admiring stories. Maybe her allies are just trying to make sure she gets credit for the great work she did, against all odds, for a man she was once accused of trying to destroy.

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Joan Walsh

Joan Walsh is Salon's editor at large.

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