George W. Bush

Air war

The men who would be president launch their TV campaigns, with -- Surprise! -- lots of smiling kids in the background.

Some say the trouble really began in 1966, when a Madison Avenue ad executive by the name of Harry Treleaven moved to Texas to help a 42-year-old son of a senator run for Congress.

Treleaven (pronounced TRELL-eh-ven) had been with the J. Walter Thompson ad agency for almost 20 years, helping to sell Lark cigarettes, Ford automobiles and Singer sewing machines. But his task in Houston was more daunting: Treleaven was to sell George Herbert Walker Bush — the losing 1964 Texas Senate candidate, a prep-school and Yale University grad whose dad had been a senator from Connecticut — to Houston voters.

Against a popular incumbent Democrat named Rep. Frank Briscoe.

In a district that had never before elected a Republican.

Treleaven liked his chances, though, not only because he thought Bush was a better candidate, but because Bush performed better on television. Treleaven was a devotee of Marshall McLuhan’s writings, especially as they pertained to politics.

As McLuhan wrote, and Treleaven memorized, politics were now about “the icon, the inclusive image. Instead of a political viewpoint or platform, the inclusive political posture or stance … In the TV image we have the supremacy of the blurred outline … Policies and issues are useless for election purposes, since they are too specialized and hot. The shaping of a candidate’s integral image has taken the place of discussing conflicting points of view.”

In a memo about the Bush-Briscoe race, Treleaven, referring to himself in the third person, wrote, “that what he saw [of Bush] he liked — and, more importantly, he recognized that what he liked was highly promotable. Political candidates are celebrities, and today, with television taking them into everybody’s home right along with Johnny Carson and Batman, they’re more of a public attraction than ever … Bush … must be shown as a man who’s working his heart out to win.”

Treleaven made sure that 89 percent of Bush’s budget went into advertising, and almost 60 percent of that to TV. Come Election Day 1966, Bush defeated Briscoe soundly, 58 percent to 42 percent.

Treleaven next was called to sell Richard Nixon. As documented in Joe McGinniss’ superb “The Selling of the President 1968,” Treleaven set about creating “a Nixon image that was entirely independent” of Nixon’s beliefs. “Nixon would say his same old tiresome things but no one would have to listen,” McGinniss wrote. “The words would become Muzak. Something pleasant and lulling in the background. The flashing pictures would be carefully selected to create the impression that somehow Nixon represented competence, respect for tradition, serenity, faith that the American people were better than people anywhere else, and that all these problems others shouted about meant nothing.”

Or, as a Nixon staffer wrote in a Nov. 27, 1967, memo about campaign strategy, “The TV medium itself introduces an element of distortion, in terms of both its effect on the candidate and of the often subliminal ways in which the image is received. And it is inevitably going to convey a partial image — thus ours is the task of finding how to control its use so the part that gets across is the part we want to have gotten across.”

The rest, of course, is History Channel. Nixon wasn’t the first presidential contender to look to Madison Avenue — President Dwight Eisenhower kept Batten, Barton, Durstine & Osborn on retainer — but as Advertising Age noted in 1994, “Nixon shaped presidential campaign advertising … with a sense of organization that spawned the all-star ad teams used by White House wannabes since 1968.”

And now, 33 years after Treleaven temporarily relocated to Houston to use the skills he’d learned selling Lark cigarettes to elect a man named Bush to Congress, Bush’s son is among those hitting the airwaves with carefully crafted propaganda to sell you, dear viewers, a better brand of president.

Treleaven died of heart failure in December 1998, but his craft lives on. As proven by the ads put out in the last few weeks by Texas Gov. George W. Bush, publisher Steve Forbes, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, the unbearable lightness of being on television is more discomforting than ever before.

Here, then, is a guide to what’s really being said:

Candidate: Texas Gov. George W. Bush

Name of Ad: “Every Child”

Theme: Bush loves kids. And not just little white ones!

Produced by: Maverick Media

Running on: Local TV in Iowa and New Hampshire

Style: With “Lifetime Channel” music treacling in the background, the ad shows kids of all hues in various settings intercut with Bush speaking to the camera about the importance of educating kids.

Substance: Bush makes a “solemn commitment: that every child will be educated.” This will be achieved by returning power to states and school districts while also “measur[ing] results.” Failed schools will be met with charter school and voucher opportunities, though the word “voucher” isn’t used. Bush, hooked on Phonics, will make Head Start classrooms start teaching the program. “Every child must be educated,” Bush says, “because there are no second-rate children, and no second-rate dreams.”

Subliminal: Plenty of minority children shown, including a black boy standing on a street corner amid urban blight. When charter schools and vouchers are discussed, a white woman is shown teaching a black boy.

Of note: The tag line — “George W. Bush, a fresh start” — drives home the feminine-hygiene-product feel of the effort, which is clearly targeted at women.

Candidate: Bush

Name of Ad: “Successful Leader”

Theme: Sound bites from Fox News Channel, video from Children’s Television Workshop

Produced by: Maverick Media

Running on: Local TV in Iowa and New Hampshire

Style: With an odd juxtaposing of conservative street-cred narration and images of “compassionate” squishiness (as well as that damn “Romper Room” music again!), this ad heralds Bush’s inevitability while simultaneously attempting to reassure conservatives that that’s a good thing. In a perfect symbol of Bush’s campaign, the GOP message — tax cuts, tort reform, etc. — is almost hidden amid half a dozen shots of Bush hugging and smiling with little kids. One black-and-white shot with grown-ups is included to show that Bush can do the grown-up work when he needs to, though he prefers the Colorforms fun.

Substance: Calling Bush “the Republican Party’s best hope to win the White House,” an announcer highlights Bush’s gubernatorial record: “the two largest tax cuts in Texas history,” lower state spending, local control of public schools, reduced welfare rolls, fewer “junk lawsuits” and a 38 percent reduction in juvenile crime.

Subliminal: In just 30 seconds, Bush shakes a hand, gives a hug, waves to the crowd, pats a back, gives another handshake, smirks, pats another back and hugs his wife.

Of note: “A fresh start for America” takes on a new meaning when it’s said over the closing shot of Bush lovingly embracing his wife. (And especially when combined with a clip from his Spanish radio ad, which says, “George W. Bush is a family man.”)

Candidate: Bush

Name of Ad: “Hopeful”

Theme: I’m going to try to keep everything nice.

Produced by: Maverick Media

Running on: Local TV in Iowa and New Hampshire

Style: The ad features Bush, in a purplish shirt, talking to the camera about his “hopeful” message while intercut with sporadic shots of a random babe, some folks at a table and Bush at a state fair hugging his wife.

Substance: Bush blames America’s “cynicism” on “broken promises” and the disappointing behavior of unnamed elected officials. He also faults negative campaigning, specifically “mud throwing and name calling.” Bush says that “Americans are sick of that kind of campaigning,” favoring instead hearing “what’s on people’s minds and where the candidates’ hearts are.” Bush promises to run a “hopeful and optimistic and very positive” race.

Subliminal: As Doonesbury has pointed out, Bush is decrying negative campaigning while taking a veiled slap at President Clinton’s Lewinsky-related antics. The ad can also be seen as a preemptive answer to the anticipated negative ads against him by Steve Forbes — who saturated the airwaves in ’96 with ads slamming presumptive nominee Bob Dole — as well as in response to the myriad media inquiries about Bush’s personal life and possible past drug use.

Of note: The most notorious “broken promise” of a politician in the last 20 years was when Bush’s father said, “Read my lips, no new taxes.”

Candidate: Steve Forbes

Name of Ad: “Bio”

Theme: Steve Forbes is an accomplished guy with a wife and kids and everything. And he knew Reagan!

Produced by: Eisner/Johnson Political Consultancy

Running on: National cable, local markets in Iowa and New Hampshire

Style: Forbes is portrayed as mighty, as background music swells behind him — as if you’re being introduced to Forbes for the first time (which is the case, sadly, for a majority of the electorate). Hoping for a tabula rasa, the ad tries to sell Forbes as a man’s man, family man and entrepreneur who just happened to find himself on top of the world. Tellingly, Forbes is not so much as once shown actually speaking.

Substance: An announcer calls Forbes “a champion of economic growth and a visionary,” “a conservative with innovative ideas and practical solutions” and “a man with character and direction.” Forbes’ managing of the successful Forbes magazine — as well as his “vast knowledge of America’s role in an ever-changing global economy” — is cited as an example of what he could do for this country. Forbes’ call for a flat tax in ’96 is represented by a picture of him on the cover of Newsweek, and the flat tax itself is described as “his call for reduced government and increased opportunity for all Americans.” The most outlandish claim comes when Forbes tries to shore up his foreign-policy credentials by asserting that his leadership of Radio Free Europe “helped play a role in the fall of communism.”

Subliminal: Number of photos/mentions of Ronald Reagan: 4. Number of photos/mentions of Forbes’ gay father from whom he inherited all his wealth: 0.

Of note: Shot of headline reading “Forbes stunner in Arizona” — a reference to his 1996 victory in the state over Bob Dole. Forbes largely achieved this by saturating the Arizona airwaves with negative ads about Dole, for which he’s earned enduring animosity from the Republican establishment, leading to an ad by …

Candidate: George W. Bush — though via a group of establishment moderate GOPers called The Republican Leadership Council.

Name of Ad: “Warning”

Theme: Note to Forbes — You’d best not go negative on Bush, bitch.

Produced by: Larry Weitzner of Jamestown Associates

Running on: Iowa, New Hampshire and Washington, D.C., TV

Style: Camera pulls in on face of middle-aged woman who scolds Forbes for going negative in ’96. Bad Forbes! Glasses perched on her nose, powder-blue Patagonia-esque fleece jacket worn over her white turtleneck, sitting in the backyard of her suburban home, the woman is Republican Everywoman.

Substance: The woman says she “kind of liked” Forbes when he ran in ’96 until he “spent all his money tearing down his opponents” thus “hurt[ing] the Republican Party.” She says she hears Forbes is planning another assault this time, which — if true — is “just going to help the Democrats.” She concludes, “If you can’t say anything nice — don’t say anything at all.”

Subliminal: We’re friends of W, and we want to win. Don’t fuck with us, Stevie.

Of note: A majority of the RLC’s advisory board has endorsed Bush, and many are actively raising cash for the man who — they hope — will bring them back to power.

Candidate: Steve Forbes

Name of Ad: “Social Security”

Theme: I’m Steve Forbes, and I’ve got some ideas about this Social Security thing.

Produced by: Eisner/Johnson Political Consultancy

Running on: National cable, local TV in Iowa and New Hampshire

Style: Shot in grainy black and white to best represent what we’ll charitably refer to as Forbes’ “old-school” style, Forbes (without sports jacket) sits at a lunch counter rapping with a cross-section of voters, including one African-American man.

Substance: Forbes proposes removing taxes and penalties on Social Security and offers “a choice” for younger voters, introducing “a new system where most of your Social Security taxes will be deposited directly into your own private account.”

Subliminal: Gen-X chic — ad cuts to attractive young 30-ish woman nodding in agreement when Forbes starts chatting about younger voters.
Of note: Despite the RLC’s odd scolding ad, Forbes has been all about substance — so far. Another ad, quite similar to “Social Security,” is up and running on the subject of taxes.

Candidate: Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

Name of Ad: “Ready to Lead”

Theme: John McCain is a war hero and special-interests-battlin’ maverick. And did I mention that he’s a war hero?

Produced by: Stevens Reed Curcio

Running on: TV in Boston, New Hampshire and South Carolina

Style: Ad uses powerful black-and-white footage of young flyboy McCain being carried off by angry Vietnamese mob, suffering in the POW camp and limping off a plane upon his return to the United States. Switches to color film for more recent shots of McCain as congressman and senator, as well as video from his announcement speech.

Substance: Heavy on bio, short on policy, as summed up in the ad’s tag line: “John McCain. Character. Courage.” More than half of the ad tells McCain’s heroic saga from Vietnam. There’s more detail about that particular horror than about any issue. Issues are treated in the vaguest terms. McCain makes a fairly naked appeal to veteran voters (“never forgetting those heroes with whom he served”) and is described as “taking on the establishment, and defying special interests,” which he will presumably continue as president since he’s “ready to lead America into the new century. His mission: to fundamentally reform government.” Number of mentions of campaign-finance reform or tobacco reform: 0. Contains clip of McCain saying, “I swear to you, that from my first day in office until the last breath I draw, I will do everything in my power to make you proud of your government.”

Subliminal: Includes footage of McCain and Ronald Reagan walking around at the White House. Chiron comes up at three different times reading: DEFYING SPECIAL INTERESTS, MORE EXPERIENCE and MORE COURAGE.

Of note: This is actually “Ready to Lead II” — the original ad had to be re-edited so that footage of McCain walking through Arlington National Cemetery — where his father and grandfather are buried — could be removed. The Army had complained that such footage amounted to McCain’s using federal property for a political purpose. Also: Both photos on the cover of his bestselling book, “Faith of My Fathers,” appear in the ad. So at the very least, might be good for sales.

Candidate: George W. Bush

Name of Ad: “Dangerous World”

Theme: This is a mad, mad world and we need W. (and, presumably, his dad’s team of foreign-policy advisors) to protect us.

Produced by: Maverick Media

Running on: TV in South Carolina — the location of myriad veterans

Style: Using fairly disturbing footage ` la “The Day After,” the ad cuts back and forth from a little girl wandering through a ghost town, to Bush speaking to the camera, to missiles being fired. At the end of the ad, a soldier’s arm appears from off screen and holds the girl’s hand.
Substance: The United States needs a “foreign policy with a touch of iron, driven by American interests and American values,” Bush says. Arguing that “we live in a world of terror, madmen and missiles,” Bush promises to “rebuild our military,” which he claims “is challenged by aging weapons and low morale.” By building missile defense systems, Bush says he will defend the United States and its allies “against blackmail.”

Subliminal: Soldier’s face is never shown. Thus, the only male face to appear is the strong, confident, smirkless one of the governor.

Of note: Tries to neutralize one of the strengths of his strongest opponent, former POW McCain, as well as erase the perceived weakness that Bush is soft on foreign policy.

Candidate: Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley

Name of Ad: “Crystal City Bio”

Theme: Bill Bradley is a basketball star, an effective senator and a life-saver.

Produced by: A special team of ad executives calling themselves “The Crystal Team,” after Bradley’s hometown of Crystal City, Mo.

Running on: New Hampshire and Iowa TV

Style: Black-and-white photos accompany Bradley’s impressive C.V. — “basketball hero, an Olympic gold medalist, a Rhodes scholar and a U.S. senator from New Jersey for 18 years.” Then the ad offers “60-Minutes”-like close head shots of testimony from two senators. Then a woman claims, “Thanks to Sen. Bradley, my daughter is alive today.” On screen come the words: “It can happen.”

Substance: Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., credits Bradley with the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., talks up Bradley’s speech on the Senate floor after the Rodney King beating, when Bradley used two pencils to hit the lectern 56 times. “The Senate was hushed as the sound of those pencils echoed through us,” Kerrey says. Then a woman named Maureen Drumm seemingly claims that a Bradley amendment mandating 48-hour hospital stays for mothers and their newborns saved her child’s life.

Subliminal: “It” can happen. What’s “it”? I’m not quite sure, though I think it has something to do with the idea that Bradley is the messiah.

Of note: Though Bradley’s legislation indubitably saved lives, Drumm’s claim is based on her feeling that had Bradley’s bill not passed she wouldn’t have even gotten pregnant a third time. The Bradley folks are offended by the media’s investigation into the totally specious claim. They say all that matters is “that’s how Maureen Drumm feels.” I personally feel that Winona Ryder is an idiot for not wanting to date me, but that doesn’t make it so.

Candidate: Bill Bradley

Name of Ad: “A Different Campaign”

Theme: Bradley is different from all the rest of ‘em, not least of which because he has substance.

Produced by: The Crystal Team

Running on: Iowa and New Hampshire TV

Style: Bradley being Bradley. Head shot of candidate speaking to camera earnestly, intelligently and more than a little sanctimoniously.

Substance: Bradley, offering “more than sound bites and photo ops,” says that he wants to run a different kind of campaign. He’ll focus on “issues, ones that concern you,” and will “spell … out in detail” what he thinks about the matter and what he plans to do if elected. “Sometimes you’ll agree with me, sometimes you won’t,” he says, “but at least you’ll know exactly where I stand.”

Subliminal: Unlike any of the other ads on TV (including Bradley’s own biographical one), the ad is as un-slick as it gets in political advertising. The medium is the message.

Of note: Now the “It” in “It can happen” is identified — it’s “A Different Campaign” that can happen. Which is true in some ways, and totally bogus in others.

Candidate: Vice President Al Gore

Name of Ad: “Nuclear Test Ban”

Theme: The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) that the Republicans shot down on Oct. 13 is important. I know what I’m talking about here. Put me in charge and I’ll get the sucker passed.

Produced by: Century Media Group — but supposedly written by Gore himself

Running on: Iowa and New Hampshire TV

Style: Intercut with shots of Gore talking right to the camera: images of JFK, headlines about CTBT rejection, nuclear missile being fired, photos of Gore with Mikhail Gorbachev and Reagan administration Secretary of State George Shultz. Gore calmly delivers his lines in what is, for him, decent delivery — neither too wooden nor too cloying.

Substance: Both “Democrats and Republicans have made nuclear arms control a national priority,” Gore says, but “now the Republican Senate has rejected” the CTBT, which was “signed by 154 nations” and supported by “former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from the Clinton, Bush, Reagan and Carter administrations.” Gore asks for the viewer’s support, as well as a mandate “to send this treaty back to the Senate” when he’s elected. Because “if you agree, we can change this mistake and once again lead the world toward peace.”

Subliminal: Photo of Gore in between Gorby and Shultz — as well as the claim that “I’ve worked on this for 20 years” — implies Gore’s experience. The shots of JFK remind people of Democrats’ better days, as well as the fact that Gore — while not quite JFK in style — is also young and handsome. And the issue itself reminds voters of how scared we all were during the nuclear arms race. “Unless we get this one right, nothing else matters,” Gore says.

Of note: Gore heralds former President George Bush for having “stopped all U.S. testing” — but not by name, crediting instead “the last Republican president.”

Candidate: Gore

Name of Ad: “Children”

Theme: Health care for every kid

Produced by: Century Media

Running on: Iowa and New Hampshire TV

Style: A jacketless Gore talks to the camera amid splices of shots of kids, mommies, daddies and hospitals.

Substance: Gore, the second-highest officeholder in the nation since January 1993, calls it “just unconscionable” that “at a time when we have the strongest economy in history” the United States has “millions and millions of children who have no health-care coverage at all.” Gore sets “affordable, high-quality health care for every child in America” as a priority, only after which can the United States then “go down the road toward coverage for every single American.”

Subliminal: Images of white kids and a closing shot of a white family resting in their living room make it seem like a Band-Aid commercial, because it’s targeted at the women’s vote Gore so desperately needs.

Of note: Completely and utterly stolen from the Bradley campaign. Including the outrage at the current administration’s apathy on the issue. Which sounds a little strange coming from Gore.



Candidate: Gore

Name of Ad: “Bio”

Theme: There’s a lot you don’t know about our vice president. He was a cool young idealist, for one. And, er, he still is.

Produced by: Century Media

Running on: Iowa and New Hampshire TV

Style: Black-and-white footage of young Gore with senator dad; shots of Gore in uniform in ‘Nam, headlines from Gore’s newspaper days (“Haddox Indicted for Bribery.”) Then BAM! Headlines of Watergate, images of the Kent State shootings, riots — Gore is called to service! Shots of young Gore/old Gore. “The young man who decided to fight for principle is still leading the way,” the narrator says.

Substance: The ad attempts to paint Gore as someone decidedly not a creature of Washington, a man disillusioned by politics, especially since his father lost his Senate race in ’70 “because of his support of civil rights and gun control.” (The claim is only partly true, since Gore Sr. was also defeated because he was an opponent of the Vietnam War as well as perceived as being out of touch with Tennessee.) The ad says that Gore returned from ‘Nam “doubting politics could make a difference” and thus he “worked as a reporter exposing corruption.” (That wasn’t officially Gore’s “beat” at the Tennessean, but it is based on one key investigation Gore broke.) The ad also mentions that Gore “studied religion at Vanderbilt” — which is true, though he never earned the degree, and he also studied law at Vanderbilt but somehow that part ended up on the cutting room floor. “Al Gore was only 28, but he’d seen a lot about what could go wrong in America — and decided to fight back,” the ad says, heralding Gore’s leadership on the environment and his opposition to the Reagan budget cuts in 1981. Seven years of being veep is compressed into one tie-breaking Senate vote on gun control. Gore’s “cause” is clumsily listed as “working families,” better health care and education, and cheaper prescription drugs.

Subliminal: Slams on Bradley include the call for a prescription drug benefit — Gore will soon slam Bradley for having been a tool of the pharmaceutical industry during his three terms in the Senate. And, of course, there’s the claim that Gore “stood against the tide opposing the Reagan budget cuts in health, education and help for the poor” — cuts Bradley voted for.

Of note: Not one single photo — or mention — of this guy you may have heard of: President Clinton.

Jake Tapper is national correspondent for Salon.

Using Bush’s playbook

"Karl Rove politics" aren't quite dead: Obama's strategy in 2012 will mirror W's in 2004

George W. Bush and Barack Obama (Credit: Reuters/Larry Downing)

Barack Obama’s presidency was born from nothing so much as his repudiation of George W. Bush’s administration — its policies and politics, its style and tone. One of Obama’s most effective 2008 stump speech refrains was his promise to end the era of “Scooter Libby justice, ‘Brownie’ incompetence and Karl Rove politics.”

But the political dynamics for winning a second presidential term often differ markedly from winning the first. So don’t be surprised by many eerie parallels between Obama’s 2012 reelection bid and Bush’s 2004 campaign. The president may not rely upon “Karl Rove politics” in the strictest sense, and nobody would confuse David Axelrod with Rove. But Obama’s reelection route and rhetoric may bear more than a few Rovian hallmarks.

Now that Mitt Romney has won the Republican nomination, two key features prevail over the 2012 campaign — and both were also plainly evident in 2004. First, the incumbent president’s reelection fortunes are far from certain; and, second, the incumbent faces a decent but nevertheless weak challenger who is further hampered by internal problems within his party’s coalition.

Because incumbents can’t run for reelection promising “change,” and because “hope” during a lingering recession was also off the menu, the Obama campaign’s 2012 theme of  “forward” — a word that often follows “plow,” mind you — was the best available alternative. That said, and substituting the economy for terrorism, Obama is implicitly if not explicitly advancing the same theme Bush did in 2004: America suffered a tough blow, but the situation could have been worse and, more to the point, under my stewardship the nation is steadily regaining its footing.

This counterfactual campaign theme — vote for me not because of what happened, but what might have but didn’t — is a common thread for Bush and Obama. It’s not an uplifting message, but it sufficed in 2004 and Obama is counting on it working again in 2012.

Politics 101 further dictates that when an incumbent’s reelection is in doubt, he must go negative against the challenger. Obama political operatives in the White House and at the Democratic National Committee long ago made it abundantly clear they were willing to do just that. Team Obama may not go negative against Romney to the degree the Bush camp did against John Kerry in 2004. (By mid-summer 2004, 75 percent of Bush’s TV ads were negative attacks on Kerry.) But don’t be surprised if attacks on Romney’s record and even character are plentiful, harsh and relentless. In 2008, America saw candidate Obama’s toothy grin; four years later, expect to see President Obama’s fangs.

Expect the Obama camp to emphasize two major critiques of Romney: that he is a flip-flopper willing to say anything or reverse any position to win; and that he is an economic royalist whose personal and public life suggest a person incapable of understanding the lives and struggles of average Americans. Again — note the unusual parallels with 2004.

Although Romney is a Republican former governor and Kerry was at the time his state’s Democratic junior U.S. senator, the two Massachusetts pols make for similar targets. Each man is an extraordinarily rich preppie and Ivy Leaguer. Each represents the liberal wing of his respective party. Each has shown a propensity for ruining an otherwise valid point with sloppy, backfiring language. And each has a reputation for lacking political spine.

The flip-flop frame is candidate character assassination of the first order. Like the lone negative number in a string of multiplied positives, the critique that nobody can trust any statement or claim made by a politician has the potential to negate every accomplishment or promise. If it sticks, it can be fatal, as Kerry learned in 2004.

Obama and the Democratic National Committee know their electoral history and, sure enough, last November — a year before the election and two full months before a single Iowan had caucused — the DNC released a four-minute “Mitt vs. Mitt” ad and its accompanying website with the damning tag line, “the story of two men trapped in one body.” The site is a brilliant homage to the Bush campaign’s 2004 windsurfer attack ad and the devastating, 11-minute ad the Republican National Committee produced chronicling Kerry’s “evolution” on Iraq.

And then there is what might be called “the Willard factor”: Romney as Richy Rich, the Monopoly Guy with the Bain Capital background and the Swiss bank account. His bio would be political gold to Romney’s opponent any election cycle, but it’s gold-plated platinum in the first full presidential campaign following the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression, the rise of the Occupy Wall Street movement, and the long overdue national debate over income inequality.

Again, the wealth-personified line of attack mirrors the out-of-touch, Martha’s Vineyard yoke the Bush team put around Kerry’s neck in 2004. Right on cue, in the first public event of his reelection campaign, last week Obama attacked Romney by name and invoked the economic disconnect card with relish. “He sincerely believes that if CEOs and wealthy investors like him make money the rest of us will automatically prosper as well,” said Obama of Romney, adding that “corporations aren’t people – -people are people.” (For the record, Kerry is actually wealthier than Romney, who would become one of the richest men ever to occupy the White House, should he win.)

Obama will also try to shift the national debate toward areas of strength, as Bush did. Historically, this meant the same strategy, but with inverse implications for each party: The so-called mommy party Democrats would encourage voters to focus on more favorable kitchen-table economy issues — healthcare, jobs, education — and away from less favorable “daddy party” Republican issues surrounding foreign wars abroad and culture wars. Because Obama is net-positive in foreign policy approval and net-negative on the economy, rather than mirroring by inversion, Obama will try to duplicate Bush’s shift-in-emphasis in 2004. GOP complaints that Obama is politicizing the killing of Osama bin Laden reveal Republican fears that Obama is going to play the terrorism card in 2012 just like Bush did eight years ago.

The 2004 parallels extend beyond message. Obama will be amply resourced and enjoy a field technology by virtue of his campaign’s state-of-the-art Web, donor, volunteer and social media innovations. Remember the Bush reelection campaign’s vaunted “72-hour” voter turnout model? That seems like an Edsel compared to the Ferrari the Obama team will be sporting this summer and fall. Among the perquisites modern presidential incumbents enjoy is the option to test-drive the best mobilization machines before anyone else.

Finally, what most connects Obama 2012 to Bush 2004 is the stability of the electoral map itself. Only three states — two net to Bush — flipped from one party to the other between 2000 and 2004; only nine states flipped between 2004 and 2008. Split the difference and a good, back-of-the-napkin over-under for number of states likely to flip between 2008 and 2012 is six. And thus, like the lead sailboat during a windless race, Obama doesn’t need or want conditions to change much from 2008: He merely has to replicate the map that swept him into office, with the burden of figuring out how to shake up the Electoral College falling to Romney, just as it did for Kerry against Bush. Even Karl Rove’s mapping of the 2012 election concedes this reality.

The 2008 election was memorable; to borrow the title of one best-selling chronicle, it was a “game changer.” But 2012 will not be. In many respects, it will be a game repeater, with Obama playing Bush to Romney’s Kerry of 2004. The president may be asking Americans to look “forward” in 2012, but the best preview of his reelection campaign can be found by looking backward eight years.

Continue Reading Close

The Bushies are back

Missed the neocons? Don't worry: Mitt Romney's getting the band together again

(Credit: Reuters/Win McNamee)

There was good reason for Republicans to cry foul over the Obama campaign’s advertisement highlighting the president’s killing of Osama bin Laden; the GOP has lost its decades-long edge on national security. According to a Washington Post poll, “By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans say the president’s handling of terrorism is a major reason to support rather than oppose his bid for reelection.”

Republicans lost their popularity on security issues for one reason: George W. Bush’s foreign policy was a disaster. And yet, the party’s nominee, Mitt Romney, has assembled a foreign-policy team composed almost exclusively of individuals with the same war-always mentality and ideology that served Bush — and the United States — so poorly. In some cases, the exact same men responsible for Bush’s catastrophic national security policies are advising Romney. The former Massachusetts governor could have included some of the pragmatists and realists from the George H.W. Bush administration. Instead, a Romney presidency seems like it would be Bush 43 all over again.

Richard Grenell, who served as United Nations spokesman under Bush, may be gone from the Romney campaign after an uproar over his sexuality, but there are plenty more former Bushies. First off, there are Romney’s “special advisors.” There’s Michael Chertoff, W.’s Homeland Security director. Chertoff oversaw DHS’s failures during Hurricane Katrina, and amassed unprecedented powers of secrecy. Next up is Eliot Cohen, counselor to the State Department for Bush’s last two years and on the Defense Policy Advisory Board for the president’s entire term. Cohen was an adamant supporter of the Iraq War and advised Bush directly on the issue. Or take Cofer Black, the man who infamously said to Bush in September 2011 about al-Qaida that “When we’re through with them they will have flies walking across their eyeballs.” Black went on to become chairman of Blackwater, where he resigned after the company illegally bribed Iraqi officials.

Then there are the 13 “working groups” composed of equally worrisome individuals. The Middle East and North Africa Working Group is co-chaired by Bush’s Assistant Secretary of Defense Mary Beth Long, and Meghan O’Sullivan, Bush’s special assistant and deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan. The remaining co-chair is Walid Phares, who never worked for Bush but advised Lebanese warlords in the 1980s. Romney has reportedly promised Phares a top job in his administration, despite his virulently anti-Islamic views.

All told, Romney lists 37 holdovers from the George W. Bush administration — the very same administration he and all other Republican candidates barely referenced during their many debates because it was so discredited and toxic, even to the Republican base.

It didn’t have to be this way. There are, in fact, people in Republican circles who are sensible on international affairs. The Cato Institute, in particular, has experts that could dramatically change the direction of American foreign policy. Men like Justin Logan and Christopher Preble were prescient on Iraq and a host of other issues. Similarly, the Center for the National Interest (formerly the Nixon Center) has a host of solid scholars, including ones like Dimitri Simes and Geoffrey Kemp, who have valuable government experience in the Nixon and Reagan administrations, respectively, and a history of perceptive analysis. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, would have been another good pick.

So why aren’t guys like this being tapped? Why is the GOP sticking with a discredited foreign-policy approach rather that looking to its own past for wiser counsel? “Most of the realists and pragmatists have simply been driven out of the Republican Party,” says Stephen Walt, who writes a blog at Foreign Policy and teaches at Harvard. “The neoconservatives have been driving the agenda since Bush was elected and they remain well-entrenched.”

Another factor is that the Republican Party’s base remains strongly militaristic and reluctant to recognize limits on American power. Jon Huntsman’s failed presidential campaign illustrated that problem. The good news is that nobody seems to be calling for nation-building and occupying foreign countries in the mold of Iraq and Afghanistan. But that’s the only lesson that seems to have been learned from the last decade of foreign-policy debacles.

Finally, it may just be that the United States has too much power to change course. While the Unites States has undoubtedly made disastrous decisions in the last decades, it is so powerful that it is largely insulated from the consequences of them. If Romney’s foreign-policy advisor list is anything to go by, a Romney administration would have to teach the U.S. all over again about the problems with trying to police the world. Prepare for Bush redux.

Continue Reading Close

Jordan Michael Smith writes about U.S. foreign policy for Salon. He has written for the New York Times, Boston Globe and Washington Post.

Bush aide blasts torture

Philip Zelikow tried to warn Bush on interrogations. Now he's penned an authoritative article on how he was ignored

(Credit: Reuters/Jim Young)

The Bush administration hasn’t heard the last from Philip Zelikow. After the rediscovery last week of his long lost 2006 anti-torture memo, Zelikow, a former State Department official, has written arguably the most damning article yet about U.S. government’s interrogation policies from 2001 to 2009. The article, called “Codes of Conduct for a Twilight War,” will be released in a forthcoming issue of the Houston Law Journal, and was obtained exclusively by Salon. Says Zelikow in an email: “I’m not aware of other accounts that combine historical, policy and legal approaches to” the subject of the Bush administration’s interrogation methods.

Based on published histories and his firsthand observations, and adapted from a lecture delivered in November, the article calls the administration’s rationale for its use of torture — which he nonetheless insists only on calling “extreme interrogation” and “coercive methods” — “radical,” “an amazing contention,” “untenable and extreme,” “unsustainable,” “an unprecedented program of coolly calculated dehumanizing abuse and physical torment,” and, finally, simply a “mistake.” He concludes: “This was a collective failure of American public leadership, in which a number of officials and members of Congress (and staffers) of both parties played a part, endorsing a CIA program of physical coercion without any precedent in U.S. history.”  In fact, “The only defense against criminal prosecution would be that officials acted in good faith reliance on the advice of their government lawyers.”

Part of what makes Zelikow’s analysis so damning and definitive is its judiciousness. The article is deeply empathetic of the uniquely fearful situation under which the Bush administration was initially operating. Zelikow calls the Sept. 11 attacks a “collective trauma” and a “shoc[k] to mass beliefs.” He notes that Bush and others spent time in burn units, morgues and with survivors of the attacks. One traumatic experienced often overlooked — overlooked because it appeared in Stephen Hayes’ stenographic biography of Dick Cheney — was that the vice-president’s daughter was (falsely, it turns out) told that her house with her children in it had tested positive for anthrax. Similarly, Cheney and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice were told that they and others had been exposed to an extremely lethal toxin in a particular area of the White House — and might soon die as a result. “The alarms did not stop and they too were not abstract … The pressure on Bush and his senior advisers was so direct because so much of the response had to be invented and improvised,” the article reads.

An additional factor in the power of the article is Zelikow’s credibility and history. Before entering government, he was a civil rights lawyer in Texas battling the Ku Klux Klan and then a highly esteemed Harvard historian specializing in U.S. foreign policy — he co-authored one book with Rice. He then served on the National Security Council under President George H.W. Bush and directed the 9/11 Commission before becoming counselor to Rice at the State Department from 2005 to 2007. He currently volunteers part-time on the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board under President Obama.

Such bipartisan, establishment credentials render the breakdown and conclusion of this article all the more damning. He believes that what should have been a political and moral question — should the United States torture captives? — became strictly a legal matter left up to government lawyers, few of whom had any experience with these issues, and who had to take the necessity of extreme measures as a given. “These lawyers then became secular priests, granting absolution to the supplicant policymakers,” Zelikow writes.

The problems began when the Office of the Vice President and the CIA took central roles in policymaking. Cheney felt himself above the rest of the National Security Council, bypassing Rice and other traditional channels of national security policymaking. Ad-hoc decision-making and improvisation became “a habit of thought,” which seemed initially to pay off in the security of the nation, as well as in Bush’s political standing and self-confidence.

With Cheney and CIA head George Tenet “the key entrepreneurs in setting codes of conduct for the War on Terror,” it was essentially left to their obsequious lawyers to decide, in secret, on the interrogation methods America should employ. Bush even told the Senate’s Intelligence Committee chairman that “the vice president should be your point of contact … [He] has the portfolio for intelligence activities.” Decisions were made to jettison international treaties. By December 2001, the CIA was already interested in reverse-engineering methods “heretofore used only to treat Americans to resist enemy torture.” When a senior al-Qaida member was captured in March 2002, the prototype for the administration’s torture policies was already developed. “So, for the first time in American history, leaders of the U.S. government carefully devised ways and means to torment enemy captives.”

Zelikow notes that “None of the policy or moral issues connected with these choices appear to have been analyzed in any noticeable way.” Perhaps worst of all, no serious consideration was given to weighing the costs of benefits of the torture program, with reference to relevant historical precedents and/or examinations of the respective French, British and Israeli experiences in dealing with captured terrorists. “Bush and Rice should have insisted on this,” Zelikow writes.

The 52-page article observes the successes of Obama’s counterterrorism policies after repudiating the use of torture. On the basis of the empirical evidence then, “[t]here is no evident correlations between intelligence success and the available of extreme interrogation methods,” no matter what Bush and Cheney claim. Finally, “The program’s costs — which include the high-level effort expended in order to establish, maintain, and defense the program — appear on the evidence so far to have well outweighed any unique value the program might have had as a method of counterterrorism intelligence collection.” This is apart from the damage to America’s international standing and corrosion of its traditional values.

Zelikow concludes his analysis by arguing that, although the Obama administration has the right to wage war and use extralegal methods to defeat al-Qaida, its claim of that authority to defeat “associated forces” is unwarranted. “The U.S. government should publish and explain any overarching policy and legal documents that guide and confine the conduct of deadly operation against its foreign enemies … the executive branch of the U.S. government has a duty to articulate the scope of its warfare to the Congress and the public.” The Bush administration’s unprecedented elevation of torture to national policy may be history, but the job to get U.S. foreign policy in line with its constitutional and moral obligations is far from over.

Continue Reading Close

Jordan Michael Smith writes about U.S. foreign policy for Salon. He has written for the New York Times, Boston Globe and Washington Post.

Thomas Kinkade, the George W. Bush of art

The rise and fall of Thomas Kinkade, the Painter of Light™ in a decade of bad faith

News of Thomas Kinkade’s death arrived on the same day I received in the mail a vintage teacup on which I had spent a ridiculous amount of money. It has a cottage painted on it. Kinkade, whose work has long exerted a morbid fascination for me (to the concern of all my friends), specialized in cottages. So some part of me understands the appeal, I guess, but, damn: Those paintings make my corneas hurt. And yet, I could barely stop looking at them.

Kinkade was only 54, and his family told the media that he died of “natural causes.” This comes after years of reports of drunken public misbehavior: cursing at people who tried to save him from falling off bar stools, heckling Siegfried & Roy, grabbing a woman’s breasts at a publicity event and, most memorably, urinating on a Winnie the Pooh statue at the Disneyland Hotel while proclaiming, “This one’s for you, Walt!” There were DUI arrests. Also, his manufacturing company declared bankruptcy two years ago, and former franchisees of the once-ubiquitous Thomas Kinkade Signature Galleries won settlements against him for fraud.

That’s quite a fall for a man who frequently spoke of his Christian faith and family values when asked to comment on the mammoth success of his brand in the early 2000s. “When I got saved, God became my art agent,” Kinkade explained in a 2004 video. He went from a childhood in Placerville, Calif. (invariably characterized as “hard-scrabble”) to an apprenticeship selling his work in supermarket parking lots to his apotheosis as the nation’s “most profitable” artist, the Painter of Light™, and multimillionaire. He was profiled in the New Yorker by Susan Orlean.

I first learned about the dark side of the Painter of Light™ — sorry, couldn’t resist that one — when I reviewed “his” novel, “Cape Light,” in 2002. The novel, first in a series, was produced much as his paintings are: by a semi-industrial process in which low-level apprentices embellish a prefab base provided by Kinkade. He wasn’t the only artist to work in this way; he wasn’t even the only novelist. To the best of my knowledge, his novels — heartwarming, fuzzily pious tales of small-town life — have been coming out ever since, one more facet of a lifestyle brand that, at its most ambitious, included an entire Thomas Kinkade-themed housing development.

My review was just a goof intended to amuse Salon’s readers, but after it appeared, I began to receive emails from people who had sunk their life savings in Thomas Kinkade Signature Galleries (essentially, mall and shopping-district outlets for his prints) and been fleeced. I didn’t really understand how the financial architecture of Kinkade’s gallery empire worked, and I sure didn’t share their taste in wall art, but these people struck me as decent and sincere. They’d believed in Thomas Kinkade — not just in the man or the company, but in the ethos supposedly represented by his work, one in which (to quote Kinkade’s introduction to “Cape Light”) “people have the time to savor life’s simple pleasures” and lead “deep, satisfying lives.”

My conversations with these victims made me uneasy. Was there some relationship between the franchisees’ naivete, perhaps even their willful self-delusion, and their terrible taste? Was it hopelessly snobby to wonder that? What about Kinkade himself? He seemed to be at best a hypocrite and at worst a crook. Was there a meaningful connection between his bad conscience and his bad art? German thinkers of the 1930s would have said so, and they had plenty of opportunity to observe bad fascist art up close. Hermann Broch maintained that someone who chooses to make kitsch is “ethically depraved, a criminal willing radical evil.” The novelist Milan Kundera believes kitsch to be the natural expression of totalitarianism. That’s a lot of moral weight to place on a bunch of garish cottage paintings, but Kinkade was always the first to present his work as a form of ideology.

I felt compassion for the ripped-off gallery operators, and at the same time I was aware that quite a few of them had probably also fallen for the similarly sanctimonious, bogus folksiness of George W. Bush, thereby subjecting our nation to one of the worst presidents in its history. Kinkade and Bush struck me as of a piece, probably because they had both borrowed from Ronald Reagan in promising that we could get back to a better way of life that never existed in the first place. In nearly every encounter with the press, Kinkade delivered a diatribe against the art-world “establishment” that had shut him out. They were “elites” touting unfathomable, downer junk to hardworking people who needed uplift instead. Art snobs were the aesthetic counterparts of the so-called liberal elites, a group that surely included me.

At the same time, I must admit that I, too, like a cottage. Granted, I like the stylized, art-deco kind painted on bone china, rather than the insanely detailed and phosphorescently lit specimens in Kinkade’s pictures. And I’m in little danger of equating my new teacup with a Brancusi just because it’s cheerier. Nevertheless, I suspect that my idea of what’s pleasing about a cottage isn’t too different from that of Kinkade’s fans: an aura of harmless coziness, of modest domestic beauty and comfort not too cut off from the past. It’s as if we’re speaking the same word, but in different languages.

I suspect this is why Kinkade’s paintings have exerted their weird, hypnotic effect on me. They are so preposterous (especially the stream-side ones; he really needed to sit down with an architect and go over the basics of drainage), so awful. And yet I can still detect — beneath that cacophony of hollyhocks and cobblestones and snapdragons — the whisper of something intelligible. I’m pretty sure I know why the hordes of Kinkade collectors love his work, even if I don’t like it myself. Kinkade’s paintings are irredeemably false, like all kitsch, but through them you can just barely glimpse the honest desires they seek to exploit, sinking under the dreck.

Kundera defined kitsch as “the absolute denial of shit,” meaning it offers an airbrushed, sterilized, sentimentalized view of the world. From that, it doesn’t necessarily follow that art wallows in shit, but art doesn’t exist for the primary purpose of denying it, either. Kitsch is, first and foremost, a lie; its very existence is founded on bad faith.

Kinkade, like Bush, peddled a falsely simplified image of the world — one without mildew or flooded basements, for one thing — which, no surprise, turned out to be plastered over a whole lot of stinky stuff. The true believers, the ones who bought into these men the most during the 2000s, ended up paying some of the highest prices, from the Kinkade acolytes who invested in his gallery Ponzi scheme to the working-class red-staters who sent off their kids to die in a pointless war. Bad taste, harmless as it may seem, can end up costing you a lot.

Further reading

Los Angeles Times obituary for Thomas Kinkade

Susan Orlean’s 2001 profile of Thomas Kinkade for the New Yorker

A 2006 Los Angeles Times story documenting Kinkade’s business problems

Salon’s Janelle Brown visits Hiddenbrooke, a Kinkade-theme housing development in Northern California

Laura Miller reviews “Cape Light,” a novel by Thomas Kinkade and Katherine Spencer

Continue Reading Close
Laura Miller

Laura Miller is a senior writer for Salon. She is the author of "The Magician's Book: A Skeptic's Adventures in Narnia" and has a Web site, magiciansbook.com.

The memo Bush tried to destroy

A document advising the Bush administration against torture has resurfaced, despite his best efforts to hide it

George W. Bush in 2006 (Credit: AP/Ron Edmonds)

In February of 2006, Philip Zelikow, counselor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, authored a memo opposing the Bush administration’s torture practices (though he employed the infamous obfuscation of “enhanced interrogation techniques”). The White House tried to collect and destroy all copies of the memo, but one survived in the State Department’s bowels and was declassified yesterday in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by the National Security Archive.

The memo argues that the Convention Against Torture, and the Constitution’s prohibitions against cruel and unusual punishment, do indeed apply to the CIA’s use of “waterboard[ing], walling, dousing, stress positions, and cramped confinement.” Zelikow further wrote in the memo that “we are unaware of any precedent in World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, or any subsequent conflict for authorized, systematic interrogation practices similar to those in question here, even when the prisoners were presumed to be unlawful combatants.” According to the memo, the techniques are legally prohibited, even if there is a compelling state interest to justify them, since they should be considered cruel and unusual punishment and “shock the conscience.”

Chillingly, the memo notes that “corrective techniques, such as slaps,” may be legally sustained, as might be “[C]ontrol conditions, such as nudity, sleep deprivation, and liquid diets…depending on the circumstances and details of how these techniques are used.” However much distress Zelikow’s memo caused the White House, it was not an ACLU briefing paper.

“I’m pleased the memo is now part of the historical record and available for study,” Zelikow wrote Salon in an email. The White House had determined that the memo — which was not binding since Zelikow’s was a bureaucratic position without legal authority — was too dangerous to exist. “I later heard the memo was not considered appropriate for further discussion and that copies of my memo should be collected and destroyed,” he said in a May 2009 congressional hearing.

At that hearing, before the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Administrative Oversight and the Courts, Zelikow said he had “no view on whether former officials should be prosecuted,” a decision he thinks should be left to “institutions.” However, he did call for a thorough inquiry and a public report examining how the U.S. came to employ torture.

Of course, no such inquiry was ever launched. The Obama administration declined to revisit the U.S. employment of torture, with the president saying he didn’t want to “look back.” Zelikow believes this was a mistake. “I still believe an inquiry would be useful, though less so as time passes and more information becomes available, especially after the 9/11 trials conclude, hopefully this year,” he says in an email.

During his congressional testimony, Zelikow declined to say whether Department of Justice lawyers acted improperly or immorally, conceding only that their opinions were “unsound, even unreasonable.” But in a 2007 lecture in Houston, he had no problem saying “the cool, carefully considered, methodical, prolonged, and repeated subjection of captives to physical torment, and the accompanying psychological terror, is immoral.”

The importance of the memo lies in its revelation that there was real, serious debate inside the Bush administration about how to interrogate captured terrorist suspects. The members of the White House declined to enter that debate — indeed, they did their best to squash it. The destruction of Zelikow’s carefully reasoned memo suggests the White House did not want any record of alternative views even existing, lest they be considered reasonable or people get the idea that the torture policies were thought controversial even by members of the administration.

Continue Reading Close

Jordan Michael Smith writes about U.S. foreign policy for Salon. He has written for the New York Times, Boston Globe and Washington Post.

Page 1 of 436 in George W. Bush