Hillary Rodham Clinton

Whose vast conspiracy is it, anyway?

There was a plot to get President Clinton, argues Jeffrey Toobin. It just wasn't the one you think.

  • more
    • All Share Services

Whose vast conspiracy is it, anyway?

The vast majority of Americans probably don’t want to think about the Clinton crisis ever again. Even the most lubricious revelers in the affair — and who can claim to have endured this endless political snuff movie without doing a little furtive wallowing? — must by now be suffering from a monumental case of post-unconsummated-oral-sex tristesse. We’re sick of the media frenzy, sick of the culture war, sick of the breast-beating analysis. The whole sordid episode already seems, mercifully, never to have happened. Why on earth would anyone want to relive the ugliest one-night stand in American political history?

But before tuning the whole thing permanently out, it’s worth remembering that a little over a year ago the nation saw what should have been merely an embarrassing episode in the career of a randy politician turned into a constitutional crisis. The Clinton affair was a bedroom farce that could have ended as tragedy. In all probability, only a harried prosecutor’s badly worded definition of “sex” prevented an American president from being removed from office for the crime of lying under oath about a consensual sexual affair. Instead of amusing ourselves with ever more gargantuan corporate copulations, we could be in a toxic civil landscape, the tanks of triumphant Limbaughism rumbling against an army of bitter, morally relativist boomers. Which is why it’s important, now that partisan passions have cooled, to look at exactly how and why this gigantic mess landed in our laps.

Jeffrey Toobin’s “A Vast Conspiracy” is a lucid, level-headed and ultimately convincing recounting, from a largely legal perspective, of what is sure to be regarded by future historians as one of the weirdest and unloveliest episodes in American history. Toobin is the legal expert at the New Yorker and ABC News, and his expertise helps him to blow the hysterical smoke out of the room and recount exactly what happened. This in itself is a valuable service, because the Clinton crisis is one of those murky stories whose true (and frightening) absurdity only becomes clear when it is anatomized.

The title of Toobin’s book is taken, of course, from Hillary Clinton’s famous statement on the “Today” show that “the great story here … is this vast right-wing conspiracy that has been conspiring against my husband since the day he announced for president.” Toobin, who is no Clinton apologist, points out that her statement ignored her husband’s culpability, that many of the “conspirators” didn’t know each other and that when she made her statement there was no evidence that any of them had broken the law. And indeed, he finds little evidence of illegal activity throughout the affair. Nonetheless, he believes that her “charge had — and has — the unmistakable ring of truth. The Paula Jones and Whitewater investigations existed only because of the efforts of Clinton’s right-wing political enemies. People who hated the Clintons initiated these projects and sustained them through many years. To put it another way, there was no one of importance behind either the Starr investigation or the Paula Jones case who was not already a dedicated political adversary of the Clintons.”

The story, in short, is of how a host of ideologues, zealots, ax-grinding hustlers, professional Clinton-haters and useful journalists connived to keep not one, but two flimsy legal cases against the president of the United States alive until, in a dramatic climax out of Aeschylus by way of Larry Flynt, the protagonist’s tragic inability to keep his pants up almost brought him down.

Unfortunately, Toobin scarcely mentions a major element in the “vast conspiracy,” the covert operations funded by far-right Pittsburgh billionaire Richard Mellon Scaife. Nor does he give readers much of a sense of the bizarre texture, the strange commingling of deep-fried kooks and respectable establishment figures, that made up the anti-Clinton forces. Readers who want to plunge into that seamy soup should turn to Joe Conason and Gene Lyons’ forthcoming book, “The Hunting of the President,” which makes an excellent complementary volume to Toobin’s. (Conason is a Salon columnist; both journalists have written extensively about the Clinton crisis in these pages.)

Of the rogues’ gallery of characters, Toobin is especially harsh on three: The so-called “elves,” the loose alliance of high-powered lawyers and financiers who, driven by hatred of Clinton, secretly lent their expertise to Paula Jones’ team and other anti-Clinton groups; independent counsel Kenneth Starr and his team; and journalist Michael Isikoff.

Of two of the main “elves” (the name the secret group gave itself), Richard Porter and Jerome Marcus, Toobin writes, “The issue was not what they did but why they did it … Most public interest lawyers volunteer for a case because they believe in a cause — an area of law they want to change. Here, in contrast, Porter, Marcus and their later recruits had no interest or expertise in sexual harassment law. To the extent that they cared at all about the state of the law in this area, they were more sympathetic to defendants than plaintiffs. They joined the cause of this sexual harassment plaintiff [Jones] because their agenda was to try — in secret — to damage Bill Clinton’s presidency. Their involvement was a classic demonstration of the legal system’s takeover of the political system. Indeed, [they] used this lawsuit like a kind of after-the-fact election, to use briefs, subpoenas, and interrogations to undo in secret what the voters had done in the most public of American proceedings.”

For Toobin, then, there were not one but two conspiracies: the conspiracy of the elves and other Clinton enemies, and a deeper, structural one — what he calls “a conspiracy within the legal system to take over the political system of the United States.” This pernicious process started, Toobin says, with the best of intentions: the legal activism of Thurgood Marshall and the NAACP, who after World War II were forced to use the courts because racist voter-registration laws ruled out legislative redress. It was initially a favorite tactic of the political left. But inevitably the right, too, discovered legal activism, and embraced “many of the same legal concepts that their adversaries had pioneered — freedom of speech, equal protection of the laws, and even, eventually, sexual harassment law — to achieve their aims.” And the chief aim of many of the most obsessed conservatives at the end of the century was the removal from office of William Jefferson Clinton.

Toobin makes the obvious point that “Clinton [has] an unusual ability to generate passionate hostility … Indeed, one cannot understand the long siege of his presidency without weighing the depth and breadth of these emotions.” Beyond acknowledging that it was part of a “culture war,” however, Toobin does not explore the underlying societal reasons for the virulence of this hatred, confining his analysis to certain cultural and legal developments that allowed that hatred to take tangible shape.

The “partisan rancor on a titanic scale” that convulsed Washington during the Clinton years — despite the fact that ideologically there was little difference between Clinton and Dole — was due, he argues, to the influence of two apparently opposing ideologies: feminism and the Christian right. What these movements had in common, he says, was “the idea that the private lives of public people mattered as much as their stands on issues.” When this now-morally legitimized obsession with the personal collided with a voracious, competitive news media looking for an excuse to peddle sleaze, the results were predictable. As Toobin sums it up: “And so the forces were arrayed. Politicians shunning policy for cultural warfare. The media using sex to sell. And all of it destined to end up in court.”

Toobin probably overstates the influence of feminism’s “The personal is the political” on the national agenda — the logic of anything-goes capitalism (to paraphrase Marx, all that is solid melts into sleaze) was a stronger force, and in any case the media was quite capable of sinking to the bottom all by itself. But he’s clearly right about the confluence of social forces that allowed the debacle to occur. And he’s dead-on when he argues (as he has in the New Yorker) that it was the advent of an imprudently broad doctrine of sexual harassment that legally unzipped Clinton. In a concise excursus, he shows how federal sexual harassment law (which Clinton helped pass), because it doesn’t distinguish between consensual sex in the workplace and actual harassment, empowered Jones’ lawyers, and later Starr, to go on a virtually open-ended fishing expedition in search of Clinton’s bedmates.

(One hopes that the notorious refusal of some feminist leaders to defend Jones resulted not from a Machiavellian desire to save a “pro-woman” president but from some awareness, however faint, that the well-meaning law they wrought and the sexual behavior of human beings, even when “power imbalances” exist, are not one and the same thing. The same holds for those sputtering CEOs who filled the nation’s letters pages with outraged missives asserting, “If I did the same thing Clinton did, I’d be fired.” Perhaps they might question whether the law itself might be the problem.)

As Toobin tells his engrossing tale, he throws out juicy tidbits and ogle-worthy quotes unearthed from the case files, as well as some fascinating speculations. Describing Lucianne Goldberg’s fascination with the gory details of Clinton’s encounters with Monica, he quotes her as saying, “Do you think there’s a taping system in the Oval Office? … The slurping sounds would be deafening.” And he quotes someone as saying, after meeting Linda Tripp, “That woman is a fucking cunt. If you want to get in bed with that bitch, you’re going to pay for it eventually.” This statement would perhaps not be noteworthy, except that the person quoted is one of Starr’s prosecutors. As for the speculations, he concludes, for example, that both Clinton and Jones lied about the event that started the whole thing, their infamous encounter in the Excelsior Hotel: Based largely on his assertion that Jones didn’t report the incident until some hours after it took place, he argues that a consensual sexual encounter probably occurred.

- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
-

Of his other two main targets, Toobin has a trickier task in characterizing Starr, a shrewd jurist who played his ideological cards very close to his chest. He resolves the issue by making a subtle double claim: Starr, he writes, was at once “a consummate Washington careerist who navigated the capital more by self-interest than ideology” and a “committed conservative” who “came of age at a time when the legal and political systems were merging and one had to take a stand with one side or the other to chart a route for personal advancement.” Toobin argues that “politely but unmistakably, Starr had done just that, and by the time he was named independent counsel, he had long ago signed on with many of the people who wanted Bill Clinton destroyed.”

More than for ideological zealotry, though, Toobin savages Starr and his team for plain incompetence — although he also believes that the incompetence was due in large part to the zealotry. In some of the strongest passages in the book, he charges Starr’s team with “an obsession with meaningless atmospherics and tendentious ‘signs’ to their adversaries, an unhealthy interest in using the media to send messages, and a predilection for canine zeal over solid prosecutorial judgment.” (In a cackle-inducing aside that may be worthy of Freudian analysis, Toobin asserts that when rumors that Starr was having an affair emerged, what really enraged the independent counsel was that “everyone — everyone! — thought the rumor was inconceivable.”)

Among many other examples, he scores Starr’s competence most harshly in his analysis of how he handled the crucial issue of Monica Lewinsky’s immunity. Above all, he argues that Starr’s fatal miscalculation was in not granting it early on, in February 1998. “Starr’s obsession with toughness and devotion to the Washington conventional wisdom led him to disaster,” Toobin says, going on to argue that Starr and his team rejected the Lewinsky deal because they “were convinced she was withholding additional evidence of Clinton’s criminality … The persistence of this myth says more about the fanaticism of those who believed in it than about the evidence against the president.” The delay only allowed “the country to come to terms with the fact that the president probably did have an affair with the intern — but that he had managed to do a pretty good job anyway.”

Finally, there is Isikoff, the former Washington Post and current Newsweek reporter to whom Toobin grants the dubious honor of being one of only seven “Key Players” (the Clintons, Paula Jones, Monica Lewinsky, Linda Tripp and Lucianne Goldberg are the others) listed in the front of the book. Toobin accuses Isikoff of being an uncritical water-carrier for the anti-Clinton forces. He reminds us that there were “three important moments in the case when Clinton’s enemies used Isikoff to launch attacks about the president’s purported sexual behavior: First, Cliff Jackson had given him the exclusive with Jones; second [Jones attorney] Joe Cammarata had set the reporter on the trail of Kathleen Willey; now, finally, Tripp and Goldberg were giving him the biggest story of all [Lewinsky].”

Toobin writes caustically that “Politically savvy journalists might have discounted the allegations, or, more likely, have exposed the motivations of those who had tried for so many years to use sex to bring down this president. But Jackson, Cammarata, Goldberg and Tripp had invested wisely in Michael Isikoff.”

So what does it all add up to? Toobin refrains from drawing any large conclusions from his book, but its moral is implicit: We must try to change the cultural, political, ethical and legal realities that helped bring about this disgraceful episode. Politicians should not go on culture-war vendettas; the obsession with “character” is unhealthy and leads inevitably, in a media-frenzied age, to sensationalism and pseudo-scandals; sexual harassment laws should be modified so that they don’t lead to endless McCarthyite investigations. (Congress already enacted the single most important change, of course, when it let the independent counsel statute expire.) In the end, though, Toobin mostly finds the whole saga merely repugnant. “No other major political controversy in American history produced as few heroes as this one,” he writes. “Instead of nobility, there was selfishness; instead of concern for the long-term good of all, there was the assiduous pursuit of immediate gratification — political, financial, sexual.

“Chief among the antiheroes,” Toobin goes on, “was the president of the United States.” Toobin savages Clinton several times in the book — most harshly for hypocritically siccing his attorney, Bob Bennett, onto Jones’ sexual past — and comments that Clinton reacted to being caught in the Lewinsky affair “not with candor and grace, but rather with the dishonesty and self-pity that are among the touchstones of his character.” Nonetheless, Toobin concludes that “the most astonishing fact in this story may be this one: in spite of his consistently reprehensible behavior, Clinton was, by comparison, the good guy in this struggle.”

Clinton is the “good guy,” Toobin believes, because “the case was never anything more than it appeared to be — that of a humiliated middle-aged husband who lied when he was caught having an affair with a young woman from the office.” He dismisses the other scandals that swirled around Clinton and his administration — Whitewater, Filegate, campaign finance abuses — as all smoke, no fire.

- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
-

This brings us to the heart of the matter, the one issue that remains contentious: Was the case basically about sex, as Toobin argues, or was it about lying? The Washington and New York punditocracy took the latter position from the outset — and still do. In her negative review of Toobin’s book, New York Times book reviewer Michiko Kakutani echoes the sternly moral sentiments consistently expressed by the Newspaper of Record’s editors. It’s worth examining her review in some detail, because it so closely expresses the mainstream media’s view of the crisis.

Chiding Toobin for being “willfully subjective” and having a “tin ear when it comes to the subjects of politics and governance,” Kakutani attacks as cynically legalistic his assertion that the Clintons did little or nothing illegal in any of the scandals. “Such arguments suggest that elected officials need not especially worry about ethical conflicts, compromising financial entanglements or reckless behavior as long as they have not committed an actual crime,” she writes. She goes on to denounce Clinton for failing in “his constitutional duty to uphold the rule of law.”

To take her strong argument first: Kakutani is surely right that Clinton’s lying, or legalistic evasions, under oath are far more troubling than the fact that he had an affair. All lies, under oath or not, are disturbing. And even if one were to excuse a private citizen for lying about an affair to protect his family or himself, it could be argued that the president of the United States should never be given a free pass to lie under oath about anything — not even, for example, to protect the memory of his late mother. As the highest elected official in the land, so this argument goes, his symbolic moral status is such that he must place the sanctity of the rule of law above his own welfare. To do less would be to tarnish his office.

This argument is partially right — but only partially. The fact that Clinton lied, or told some major stretchers, under oath will be a black mark on his legacy. That is undeniable. Clinton placed himself in a position where, when his evasions had failed, he had to lie — and history will judge him critically for that. But Kakutani’s argument takes too rigid a view of both the law and the presidency. The law is not infinitely malleable, but neither is it a straitjacket. It has a certain amount of common-sense flexibility built into it — the legacy of the common-law tradition that underlies our legal system. And common sense tells us that not all lies have the same moral gravity. There are such things as extenuating circumstances. It is a one-eyed justice that would judge a man as harshly for lying about an extramarital affair as about stealing a car. And so lofty pronouncements about “the rule of law,” while true in the abstract, must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. This is not cynical debasement of moral principle — it’s the way justice actually works in the real world, and must work.

But shouldn’t the president be held to a higher standard? This would seem at first blush to be incontrovertible, but in fact it’s problematic. In a democracy, the ideal is that everyone is treated exactly the same — no one is above the law, but no one is below it, either. To hold the president to a higherlegal or moral standard than everyone else is to violate the spirit of democracy: It is, in effect, to make the president a mini-king. There is a faint whiff of theocracy about it. And it also deprives the president of his rights: It places him below the law. De facto, if not de jure, Clinton was placed below the law during the whole endless investigation of his sex life. To understand this, simply try to imagine a scenario under which an ordinary citizen could be forced through the grotesque sexual wringer Clinton was, with an army of private and public investigators searching for ancient girlfriends, tens of millions of dollars spent, subpoenas and grand jury appearances — and concluding with an all-powerful prosecutor issuing a report describing for the world how, after a consensual sexual encounter, he masturbated into a sink.

It will be objected that extraordinary means were needed to investigate the most powerful man in the country. But this argument, when set against the actual facts in the Clinton case, is absurd. The Clinton crisis started as a dubious sexual-harassment claim — an investigation that was instigated and kept alive by the malice, greed and political agenda of its principals, their lawyers and various “elves.” It meandered into a fruitless investigation of a failed, two-bit real estate deal — one that was instigated by a flawed newspaper account, based on the testimony of a con man and a manic-depressive and kept alive by a zealous independent counsel (appointed to replace his more moderate predecessor after two senators who were bitter enemies of Clinton lunched with one of the three judges in charge of appointing independent counsels) and more “elves.” And it concluded with the revelation, thanks to the joint efforts of a serviceable journalist, a double-crossing friend, a Clinton-hating literary agent and, of course, more “elves,” of an idiotic sexual affair.

That was it. Nothing else was proven. At the end of the day, we know that Clinton is an incorrigible hound dog and that a lot of people hate him. For this, we paid $100 million?

- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
-

The pundits at the Times have not found it easy to acknowledge this, but this is exactly the way most of the country saw and still sees the case — which is why Congress refused, in the end, to remove Clinton from office. Not just Toobin but the American people and their elected representatives, it seems, have a tin ear for politics and governance.

Which brings us to a more slippery argument advanced by Kakutani. She implies that despite the fact that Clinton did not commit an actual crime, he was involved in “ethical conflicts, compromising financial entanglements [and] reckless behavior” — all of which she thinks Toobin, with his partisan, legalistic approach, seems to condone.

This statement is a classic example of an insidious type of conventional wisdom, in which the belief that “there’s so much smoke there must be fire” acquires canonical status. Notice what Kakutani implies that Clinton is guilty of — “ethical conflicts,” “compromising financial entanglements” and “reckless behavior.” Leave aside the vague accusation of “ethical conflicts” (this apparently refers to campaign-finance malfeasance — we’re all shocked, shocked to find politicians raising more money than the rules say they should) and the indubitable one of “reckless behavior” (guilty as charged, but many of our presidents, including a lot of the better ones, have been sexually reckless, so Clinton might actually be moving into a higher-class presidential neighborhood than he deserves) and what remains is “compromising financial entanglements.” What, exactly, does this mean? What entanglements? The ones that two independent counsels and a Senate committee couldn’t find? Apparently, it means that long ago the New York Times pronounced that Clinton was caught in “compromising financial entanglements” — and once that judgment was rendered, the “legalistic” disposition of the actual case becomes moot. He may have slithered out of this one, but we all know he’s guilty of something. Such reasoning does not sit well with paeans to the “rule of law.”

Of course, when you hear enough rumors about someone, at a certain point it’s natural to start believing them. And certainly Clinton and his administration’s habitual evasiveness and, on occasion, outright dishonesty aroused legitimate suspicion — as did his Mossad-like political response team. (An interesting question posed by the whole affair is to what degree the press and public should assume that super-aggressive spinning is a sign of guilt. At times, it seemed that the Clinton administration’s hardball, preemptive-strike approach to dealing with political opposition created more problems than it solved.) Isikoff notes in “Uncovering Clinton” that veteran Washington reporters became wary of Clinton after his less-than-truthful accounts of how he avoided the draft became known — and such wariness was justified.

But many of the media establishment’s suspicions about Clinton were based on nothing more than the fact that suspicions had been raised about Clinton — a circularity that Toobin doesn’t fail to point out. (A much more exhaustive chronicling of the press’s numerous sins of omission and commission is found in “The Hunting of the President.”) “With an almost comic circularity of reasoning, the very existence of the inquiries about Whitewater were seen as proof that they were justified,” Toobin writes. “The New York Times editorial page often spoke this way. ‘Much as President Clinton might wish,’ the editors wrote in a typical passage, ‘[Whitewater] … just won’t go away. It keeps popping up in Congressional inquiries and newspaper accounts.’” Toobin cites another, even more Orwellian pronouncement when, on “the eve of one of the many congressional hearings on Whitewater, the paper intoned, ‘Mr. Clinton came to Washington promising to end the casual conflicts, favoritism and insider deals of the Reagan-Bush years. The very existence of these hearings attests that he has done little to honor that commitment.’”

It was this sort of assertion, combined with the Times editorial page’s consistent and mystifying refusal to see anything problematic about Kenneth Starr and his investigation except for his supposed tin ear for public relations, that caused many loyal Times readers to wonder what was going on with the greatest newspaper in the world. One did not have to be a Clinton supporter to question whether the paper had become too invested in a “scandal” that it helped create (Jeff Gerth’s reporting was largely responsible for the Whitewater investigation), was driven by some unknown animus or was simply caught up in an obsessive we-won’t-get-beat-on-Watergate-again mind-set.

Of course, the press must be suspicious — it’s a constitutional necessity of the job. Revealing the wrongdoing of the powerful is a noble calling, and it almost requires a mind-set that assumes the worst. But the tough-guy pose can degenerate into a myopic presumption of guilt that ignores nuance and context. And the desire to get a story at all costs can lead journalists into ethically dubious areas.

Which is what Toobin (and Conason, in his review of “Uncovering Clinton” in these pages) argue happened with Isikoff. Isikoff didn’t initially reveal to his readers the ulterior motives of those feeding him information because he didn’t want to blow his sources. But at what point does the legitimate desire to protect a developing story justify the withholding of important contextual information about that story? To be fair to Isikoff, he found himself in an almost unprecedented situation — and he acknowledges in his book that he was disturbed by it. Still, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that he should have looked harder into the motivations and connections between his sources — and revealed them earlier to his readers.

In his book, Isikoff also reveals crossing a Rubicon in his attitude toward Clinton: In August 1997, he writes, he overcame his earlier doubts and decided that “Clinton’s serial indiscretions” — including the affair with Lewinsky, whom Linda Tripp had told him about in April — were worth covering because “Clinton was far more psychologically disturbed than the public ever imagined … A culture of concealment had sprung up around Bill Clinton and, I came to believe that summer, it had infected his entire presidency.” Considering the hard-working-Joe, just-the-facts-ma’am pose Isikoff has hitherto taken, this lofty moral rhetoric strikes a somewhat jarring note — one not made more harmonious by the murky nature of the allegations against Clinton and the fact that by this time Isikoff knew he was in possession of an explosive story that could become a bestselling book.

- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
-

Did any winners emerge from the Clinton crisis? Certainly not Clinton, whose most unattractive personality traits were revealed for all to see. Nor did the players in the “vast right-wing conspiracy” fare better. The higher-minded of the “elves” no doubt liked to imagine themselves as fearless fighters for justice, but they were exposed as tawdry dirty tricksters, Machiavellians out to destroy their enemies by any possible means. In the age of Gingrich, Limbaugh and the Christian right, this version of “conservatism” has attempted to swagger its way into acceptance as a legitimate right-wing stance — but it is a cold-blooded, absolutist, instrumental morality that has much more in common with the ends-justify-the-means approach of the Stalinist left than with true conservatism, which is based on measure, decency and other intangible virtues.

Indeed, one of the most depressing things about the Clinton crisis is that it legitimized a raw and ugly strain in American life, the worship of sheer power. If we can just destroy this guy, the Clinton-haters believed, no one will care later how we did it: The facts on the ground will become the new reality. For his part, Clinton let a lie fester for eight months, calculating whether he should tell the truth by watching the polls. The scary thing is that in an age of hate-spewing talk radio, buccaneer capitalism and I’ve-got-mine-Jack online libertarianism, they both had it right.

But there was one winner. In an age when political bile and the need to be constantly entertained vie for cultural supremacy, it is probably fitting that the story of the last presidency of the 20th century was written, right up until its ending, by a brazen hack. More than anything, the whole episode represents the triumph of Lucianne Goldberg: She may not have destroyed Clinton, but she succeeded in turning the entire country, at least for a time, into a gigantic pulp novel.

Gary Kamiya is a Salon contributing writer.

The politicization of the Secret Service scandal

What was once one of the right's favorite government agencies becomes a symbol of waste and moral degradation

  • more
    • All Share Services

The politicization of the Secret Service scandalPresident Obama, surrounded by members of the Secret Service, upon his arrival in San Diego, Sept. 26, 2011. (Credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

It’s hard to work up much outrage about the Secret Service prostitution scandal, in which 11 members of the president’s elite protective service and various military personnel were found to have picked up escorts in Colombia, where they were doing advance work for the president’s visit. I guess it is probably not a good idea for the people in charge of protecting the president to leave themselves vulnerable to sexual blackmail, but on the other hand we do not live in a John Le Carré novel or “24″ episode, and I don’t think the threat of a honey-trap assassination conspiracy plot is very credible. If members of the Secret Service want to get drunk and hire escorts after work, that is their business. (As Melissa Gira Grant says, the only actual scandal here — and the reason this became an international incident — is that all these guys tried to bilk one of the women out of the money she was owed.)

But the predictable Washington mixture of prurient interest and moral posturing has turned this incident into grist for the scandals-and-investigations mill. And now we have the attempts at somehow making this a winning partisan issue for Republicans. Chuck Grassley, the senator from Iowa who triumphed over adversity and became the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee despite being functionally illiterate, would like to know whether any White House staff also slept with escorts that evening. No one has made the claim, but Grassley’s asking just in case. (For a live peek at a future paranoid right-wing myth in its embryonic stage, read the comments on that Washington Times story: “I can just hear those paper shredders going a mile a minute in the white house, and the document forgers are being called in, you know the same ones that did the birth certificate.”) Grassley was on Fox last night to make sure viewers repeatedly heard baseless speculation as to the involvement of White House staff.

Rep. Pete King, Long Island Republican and stalwart publicity monger, has sent Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan a list of 50 questions about the scandal in order to make it appear that he is very seriously investigating this very serious incident.

For those outside Congress, for whom insinuating escort patronage by unnamed White House staff seems a bit of a reach, the game is to attempt to use the scandal to prove some point the fecklessness of Obama as a leader and his shameful failure to make everyone in Washington stop being so awful and wasteful all the time.

NRO’s Mark Steyn, after praising the fiscal discipline of the agent who attempted to bilk his escort (ugh), suggests that the moral of the story is that we pay too much for presidential security, and that all those agents and fancy bullet-proof Suburbans are wastes of taxpayer funds and evidence of broke post-Imperial America’s profligacy. Sarah Palin, who had every right to be personally aggrieved for once, after it was reported that the agent at the center of the scandal wrote gross sexist things about her on Facebook, was among the first to declare that the problem was with the “culture” Obama has created at the White House. (Karl Rove, smarter than most of these people, suggested that politicizing a Secret Service scandal was dumb and counterproductive. Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan, coincidentally, was elevated to his position under George W. Bush.)

The makeup of the Secret Service, obviously, has very little connection to the political party of the person occupying the White House. Like most American law enforcement agencies, it’s primarily white and overwhelmingly male, and, historically, the culture of the agency has had more than a whiff of machismo. These are not exactly the sort of public sector employees right-wingers get off on demonizing.

In fact, the right has had for years a sort of Clint Eastwood-inspired fantasy of the Secret Service agent as folk hero. Decent, hard-working men putting their lives on the line to protect a bunch of elitist ingrates. That ingratiating phony Bill Clinton and his frigid, hectoring monster of a wife weren’t deserving of such stolid, unflinching loyalty and service.

The fullest expression of this fantasy is in this classic chain email that made its way to every inbox in the nation during the second president Bush’s first term. According to this email, attributed to the unnamed author’s former neighbor, the president’s security detail was constantly disrespected by those awful Clintons and their terrible staff. Hillary Clinton was “arrogant and orally abusive.” “She forbade her daughter, Chelsea, from exchanging pleasantries with” agents. “Al Gore resented Bill Clinton and thought he was to centrist. He despised all republicans.” Agents prayed for Bush to win the election, and their reward was the joy they all felt in the presence of President Bush and his amazing, wonderful wife.

This nonsense has its roots in fake anti-Hillary attacks, attributed to imaginary Secret Service members, that Republican operatives spread to sympathetic media voices starting more or less the day Bill took office. Former Secret Service agents do plenty of gossiping and bitching, most frequently to Ronald Kessler, but their complaints don’t tend to track quite so directly to right-wing fantasy narratives.

But a popular trope is of the upstanding agents blanching at being asked to look the other way as libidinous Democratic presidents — Kennedy, Johnson, and Clinton — womanized. (Clinton was said to have threatened to fire agents who stymied his attempts to have trysts with Monica Lewinsky, though the agent who made the claim admitted to having invented it.) The pat moralism of the conservative Secret Service fantasy makes the agency’s lurid misadventure a bit funnier. It also explains why various people have to somehow convince themselves that the Obama administration somehow degraded the agency, through a lack of “management skills” or the widespread embrace of sexual deviance that is the logical end result of repealing the military’s ban on out gays and lesbians.

Continue Reading Close
Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

The silly 2016 speculation game

It may be impossible to make any serious predictions about a far-off race, but that has never stopped a pundit

  • more
    • All Share Services

The silly 2016 speculation game (Credit: AP/Shutterstock/Salon)

Being that it’s still March 2012 and we have no way of knowing who will actually be president by the end of January 2013 (besides “not Ron Paul,” obviously), it would seem to be a bit premature to speculate as to how the 2016 presidential race will shake out. And yet political reporters, finally bored perhaps with the inevitable Republican nomination of Mitt Romney, are already spewing forth predictions. Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has even created a “Sweet 2016″ bracket. 

The most important lesson of terrible premature presidential-campaign speculation is that nearly everyone who engages in it will be terribly, hilariously wrong. It doesn’t matter if you’re a complete buffoon, like Dick Morris, author of the 2007 classic “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race,” or someone fairly serious and “savvy,” like New York Times politics reporter Matt Bai, who posited current nobody Mark Warner as the future of the party in a 2006 Times magazine cover story now best (if barely) remembered for its altered and unflattering photo of the subject.

There will be events no one could’ve predicted — like “obvious” future Republican presidential contender George Allen using an obscure racial slur on camera, or John Edwards being generally John Edwards — that destroy promising careers in an instant.

And there is also the plain fact that the sort of politicians that Washington-based reporters and pundits and political operatives like, and the sort of politicians they think “voters” would like, are often people who have no appeal for anyone outside of their districts or the Beltway. (Like Evan Bayh. Jon Huntsman. And Mitch Daniels, probably.)

Some people turn out to be awful at campaigning: Like Wesley Clark, the general who was going to sweep a troop-worshiping country off its feet and away from George W. Bush, until it turned out that he did not blink like a human. Or Rick Perry, who, it turned out, seems too dumb to dress himself when asked simple questions on television.

There are times when this sort of long-range forecasting is easy until you overthink it: John McCain was the logical 2008 front-runner the moment he addressed the 2004 Republican convention, until you started daydreaming about Fred Thompson’s seductive drawl. Al Gore was pretty obviously going to be the Democratic nominee in 2000, and boredom with his inevitability might’ve had a hand in how the political press helped destroy him that year.

A hell of a lot will obviously depend on whether or not Barack Obama wins reelection. If he loses, Democrats might suddenly find white candidates from the West or the South more attractive. If he wins, we might have to take Joe Biden semi-seriously for a few unlikely news cycles. If Obama ends a second term as popular as Clinton, someone associated with his administration is certainly more likely to be nominated than if Obama’s 2015 numbers look more like Bush’s in 2007.

So let’s get to the predictions, shall we? According to Cillizza, the “number one seed” for 2016 is New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. (Mark Warner is still on the shortlist, by the way. His time will come!)

Cuomo is the reasonably popular governor of a very populous state. He’s thus far managed to balance liberal base-pleasing deeds (gay marriage!) with “moderate” newspaper editorial-board pleasing things (going after the pensions of public employees!). But we’re still talking about a Northeast liberal (or “liberal”) — from New York! — who’s living with but not currently married to a celebrity television cook who makes awful-looking garbage food out of prepackaged garbage food. The Democratic Party might not want to chance another blatantly culturally urban candidate. (I mean urban in the literal sense, and not as weird racial code.) Plus he’s in the honeymoon portion of his governorship, and that job has utterly destroyed its last two holders.

Plus, Cuomo looks like he’s on pace to use up much of the goodwill he built up with liberals after signing gay marriage into law. (So far there’s been his apparent lack of interest in transit, signing awful gerrymandered legislative and congressional district lines, and his property tax cap.)

Joe Biden has run for president twice and never come remotely close to winning a single primary. He’ll be 74 in 2016. As Steve Kornacki already pointed out, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to nominate 70-somethings. He’s also a gaffe-prone goofball whose appeal is that he’s a ridiculous character. I would not put a lot of InTrade money on Joe Biden winning the Democratic nomination in 2016.

Hillary Clinton is a bit younger than Biden, and a lot more serious than Biden. But does she still want to be president? Who knows. (Anyone who says they know is lying.) And if she runs in 2016, does she hire the same asinine campaign team that lost her the nomination in 2008?

After those three, we’re already essentially in “who?” territory with the Democrats. Not to say that someone no one has heard of now won’t be the nominee — with Democrats, you may be more likely to get a relative unknown than with Republicans — but we can’t know which governors or senators will turn out to be Barack Obama (or even John Edwards) and which ones will turn out to be… well, Mark Warner.

And theoretically there would be more women vying for the nomination than just Hillary Clinton. Cillizza posits New York Sen. Kristen Gillibrand — a long shot, in my estimation — and senatorial hopeful Elizabeth Warren, who, if she loses her election, would surely be out of the running, and if she wins, would be … a liberal senator from Massachusetts. So, I dunno, Amy Klobuchar? Sadly, four of the current six female governors are Republicans. The two Democrats are North Carolina’s Bev Purdue, who is currently polling poorly enough that she’s announced that she won’t seek reelection, and Washington’s Christine Gregoire, who seems cool, so let’s just put her on the fantasy shortlist. (Oh, I guess the Times already did.)

But you see where we are, at this point: Randomly tossing out names. It’s like predicting the 2016 NFL Draft. Some of these kids are still in high school!

As for Republicans: If Mitt Romney wins the election, there’s the candidate, fun speculation time done. (Unless Newt and Ron Paul mount a primary challenge?!?) If he loses, the party likely learns the lesson it always learns and lurches to the right for a while, and your front-runner in that case (assuming he doesn’t blow up the party at the convention, I guess?) is Rick Santorum. I made this point already and Dave Weigel concurred. He’s a “true conservative” and he looks like he’ll “come in second” this year, which are both substantial advantages in the Republican race.

Maybe it’s Marco Rubio if Romney makes him the running mate, but the GOP does not often nominate losing running mates, because why would you?

Is Paul Ryan, who frantically introduces numbers-laden fake-serious budgets every year, the future of the party? I happen to think he’s basically a bland weenie who only excites people predisposed to thrill to rich-on-poor economic warefare, but a not insubstantial portion of the Republican Party “elite” seems to like that sort of thing. Mitch Daniels is somehow even less electrifying, but as a governor he has a better shot than Rep. Ryan. And Santorum still seems to have a massive advantage over them all.

(Oh, what about Chris Christie? Yes, well, he’d certainly be fun but he is pretty moderate for the national Republican Party, even if he masks it by being an obnoxious, belligerent bully. And he is woefully unprepared to protect us from CREEPING SHARIAH.)

One guy changes this calculus, obviously: Jeb Bush, because the Bush name exerts some sort of weird hypnotic power over the Republican Party, and they are often forced to do their bidding, even when, afterward, they all regret it. I like to imagine that the nation as a whole has decided that it’s done with Bushes forever, but that is pretty naive. I mean, Nixon got elected twice. Jeb Bush has not actually held office in a while — by 2016 he’ll have been a regular private citizen for nearly a decade — and it’s possible the family has decided to wait for George P. Bush to come of age before reasserting their claim over the White House (oh man, guys, he just turned 35).

The sick need to treat politics like it’s fantasy baseball ensures that there’s absolutely nothing anyone can do to make people not wildly speculate as to what will happen years after an election that is still months away, so I just encourage you to be sensible and responsible about it. (Like, it won’t be Rand Paul.)

Continue Reading Close
Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Bill Keller writes newest, dumbest Biden-Clinton 2012 swap piece

Former New York Times editor combines hackneyed analysis with shopworn topic, with predictable results

  • more
    • All Share Services

Bill Keller writes newest, dumbest Biden-Clinton 2012 swap pieceJoe Biden and Hillary Clinton (Credit: AP/Jason Reed)

Bill Keller, a bad opinion columnist, has written a bad opinion column. It is about how Barack Obama will replace Vice President Joe Biden on the 2012 ticket with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a thing that will not actually happen.

The former New York Times editor has lately been celebrating his return to writing by fearlessly tackling hacky column ideas already exhausted by everyone who was writing bad opinion columns during Keller’s tenure as a person with an actually important job. Having offered his own takes on classics like “The Huffington Post isn’t as good as a real newspaper” and “Twitter is dumb,” Keller today tries the old “running mate switcharoo” scenario.

John Heilemann made the case in August of 2010, but Bob Woodward really kicked it off by pretending a Biden-Clinton switch was “on the table” in October of 2010. That notion — supposedly — can be traced back to pollster grifter Mark Penn, which should have stopped anyone else from bringing it up ever again. But Jonathan Alter took another crack at it last October, and publishing speculation on the switch has become reliable Drudge-bait ever since.

Keller’s column frames the switch as something wished for, instead of predicting it based on the “chatter” of “insiders,” which helps make it merely stupid instead of inherently dishonest. But here are his arguments as to why it would be a good idea instead of a bizarre and desperate stunt:

One: it does more to guarantee Obama’s re-election than anything else the Democrats can do. Two: it improves the chances that, come next January, he will not be a lame duck with a gridlocked Congress but a rejuvenated president with a mandate and a Congress that may be a little less forbidding. Three: it makes Hillary the party’s heir apparent in 2016. If she sits out politics for the next four years, other Democrats (yes, Governor Cuomo, we see your hand up) will fill the void.

One: What? Prove it, maybe? Two: Haha what, again? Congress will get ungridlocked if the president switches vice presidents? To a Clinton? Three: OK, but what if Obama/Clinton loses? And if Obama wins again wouldn’t any Democrat be at a disadvantage in 2016 due to historical trends anyway, making it a “safer” bet to not be his running mate, assuming she actually wants to be president still, which is not at all a given?

But we’re not dealing with observable reality here, as the bit about Clinton’s magical power to un-gridlock Congress demonstrates. We’re in the world of vague assertions about “warmth” and “voltage.” How many electoral votes would running mate Hillary Clinton be worth? Keller never bothers to attempt to make a quantitative guess. This is the closest we get:

Moreover, even if Obama can win without Hillary, there’s a lot to be said for running up the score. If she can do in 2012 what Obama did in 2008 — animate that feeling of historic possibility — the pair can lift some House and Senate candidates along with them. One reason Republicans did so well in the 2010 Congressional elections is that they overcame the gender gap and carried women voters 51 to 49. Those voters will flock back to Hillary, the more so if the Republican ticket is locked into a culture-war agenda. So, by the way, will Hispanic voters, securing such endangered states as Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

Ooh, actual data! The Republicans won women in a midterm election. Hillary Clinton is a woman. So in a presidential general election, women will “flock back to Hillary.” Those women may be Republicans, voting in a Republican wave election, but they are women and so they will vote for Barack Obama if he is next to a woman on the ballot. (Though what about those Hispanics? Shouldn’t Obama replace Biden with a Hispanic woman, in this case? Or isn’t he in fact best off retaining Joe Biden, who is, after all, a white man? From Scranton? White men will “flock back” to Obama once they see that he is friends with a white person.)

The column isn’t just bad analysis — it’s also oddly condescending to Secretary Clinton! It complains that she owes “us” a vice-presidential run after she “raised our expectations” by running for president last time. It calls Clinton “the dutiful Methodist schoolgirl.”

Here’s the line that is secretly the worst:

But the idea that she should replace Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate in 2012 is something else. It has been kicking around on the blogs for more than a year without getting any traction, mainly because it has been authoritatively, emphatically dismissed by Hillary, Biden and Team Obama.

Did you see that? “Kicking around on the blogs.” That’s Keller-speak for “not worth anyone’s time until a real journalist like New York Times opinion columnist Bill Keller brought it up.” The “bloggers” kicking this idea around, as I mentioned earlier, are New York magazine political writer John Heilemann, Washington Post living legend Bob Woodward, and former Newsweek senior editor and best-selling author Jonathan Alter. Those bloggers and their crazy notions!

As a blogger, I know that my silly opinion is not as carefully considered and well-informed as that of former New York Times editor Bill Keller, who is not at all simply talking out of his ass. But even if there were any hint at all that the switch was a possibility, which there isn’t, it would be a stupid idea. Hillary Clinton is already part of the president’s Cabinet, and she and her husband will already campaign for the president’s reelection. Running mates barely nudge the numbers in presidential elections, unless they’re historically awful, which Joe Biden isn’t. The Clintons are among the most divisive figures in American politics — Hillary Clinton’s recent high approval rating has come because she’s not running for anything — and relitigating every Clinton scandal would consume the national political press for weeks if she ended up on the ticket.

The running mate switch hasn’t been successful since the Franklin Roosevelt administration, and the last time a president made a strategic switch to help win a tough reelection, it failed.

And I bet if Obama did make this stupid switch, Bill Keller would write some awful column about how desperate it made the president look. Unless he will have by then moved on to finally writing his “kids today sure are sexting each other a lot” piece.

Continue Reading Close
Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Fake Democratic pollsters have stupid idea

The Wall Street Journal publishes nonsense from Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell, because they think you're an idiot

  • more
    • All Share Services

Fake Democratic pollsters have stupid ideaHillary Clinton and President Obama (Credit: AP/Charles Dharapak)

I think it’s best to understand the Wall Street Journal editorial board’s decision to publish any given column by con artist pollsters Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell as basically an expression of contempt for people who read the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

Caddell and Schoen, two loser “Democratic” “pollsters,” regularly publish very lame link-bait columns about how if Democrats want to succeed electorally, they must immediately cease being Democrats, and become, instead, Republicans. This week’s variation on that theme: Barack Obama should step aside (already heard that one last year around this time) and allow himself to be replaced by Hillary Clinton, for the good of the party and the nation.

Even though Mrs. Clinton has expressed no interest in running, and we have no information to suggest that she is running any sort of stealth campaign, it is clear that she commands majority support throughout the country.

Because she’s not running for anything.

So Hillary Clinton should be president instead of Barack Obama, because Obama is too partisan and divisive. America needs a bipartisan plan to attack the deficit and also create jobs, and it is Obama’s fault that that is a vague, magical fairy tale. Hillary Clinton will make this fairy tale real, thanks to the fact that, as we all know, Republicans love cheerfully working with the Clintons for the good of the nation. When a Clinton’s in the White House, partisan politics are always put aside!

This is self-evidently dumb on about ten different levels — Clinton won’t run, President Clinton wouldn’t have any more success negotiating with Congressional Republicans than President Obama, Clinton’s popularity is a result of her not being a partisan candidate for office anymore, if there was such a thing as a “bipartisan” plan to reduce the deficit while also stimulating job growth (and protecting entitlements!) we’d presumably have already decided to act on this fantastical plan, everything resembling such a plan is explicitly supported by the White House and rejected by Republicans, Republicans would not endorse said plans if President Obama promised to go away because then they’d simply want to wait for a Republican to take over for him, and Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen are not, as they claim to be, Democrats — but the Journal published this regardless, as they always do with fresh tripe from Schoen and Caddell.

Schoen — who works for hypothetical future independent presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, though that fact is never, ever disclosed — is a simple hack, precisely as dumb and unprincipled as you’d expect anyone who was once Mark Penn’s right-hand man to be. Caddell angrily left the Democratic party 20 years ago, which is seldom mentioned when he’s trotted out to trash the president on behalf of the right-wing media outlets that pay his rent. But the fact that they’re classic “Fox Democrats” matters much less than the fact that all of their editorials are predictable, wrong, and patently stupid.

As I said, printing their editorials is an implicit admission that you think your audience is credulous and moronic. The people in charge of the Wall Street Journal are savvy enough about politics to know that all of this is bilge and bullshit. They know both that this will never happen and that it’d be a stupid suggestion even if it were within the realm of possibility. They just don’t care. They don’t care that they’re printing garbage, because they figure garbage will get some traffic from those engaged in the same game.

If I were a conservative American I’d be less outraged at the specter of liberal elites hypothetically disrespecting me from their coastal enclaves and much more pissed off that the people on my side are constantly peddling this bullshit.

Continue Reading Close
Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Does Hillary Clinton get too much credit?

She's a huge foreign policy asset to the president but this week's hosannas feel like overkill

  • more
    • All Share Services

Does Hillary Clinton get too much credit? Hillary Clinton (Credit: Reuters)

I’m on record as a great admirer of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, going back to her days as New York senator and certainly through her 2008 presidential campaign. But this week’s set of stories depicting the U.S. Libya intervention as “Hillary’s War” (The Washington Post) and an example of Clinton’s “smart power” doctrine (Time Magazine’s cover) go a little bit too far for me. They feel like someone’s effort to upstage or diminish President Obama. For the record, I don’t think the effort is Clinton’s. It may just reflect the mainstream media’s inability to give Obama his due.

Clearly Clinton’s competence is an asset to the president, and her power and credibility reflects well on his ability to work with a former rival. And the Time piece, in particular, makes clear, while praising Clinton, that ultimately Obama makes most of his decisions with a small team of confidantes, and she is not among them. He’s the commander in chief.

And there’s fine reporting in the two pieces. Certainly Clinton deserves credit for using her role to leverage support and resources from other agencies, getting greater control of foreign aid funding and even Defense Department funds to bolster her agenda at State. Elevating the role of the State Department took particular work after George W. Bush ignored and degraded so many American alliances.

But neither piece apportions any share of blame for the downside of Clinton’s expansive diplomacy – her role in pushing a bigger continued U.S. presence in and around Iraq, for instance, flagged Monday by Glenn Greenwald. The continued Iraq presence will also use more of the sometimes lawless private contractors whose role she opposed during the presidential campaign. It also seems a little early to be declaring Libya a decisive victory for American interests, or the cause of human freedom, as the nature of the government that will emerge there remains unclear.

Still, at a time when Obama struggles to get the kind of credit he deserves on the foreign policy and domestic security front – for killing Osama bin Laden and other top al Qaida leaders, winding down the military role in Iraq and toppling Muammar Gaddhafi without losing a single American life – it strikes me as a little unseemly that when credit is given, so much of it goes to Clinton. For her part, at least publicly, Clinton works to turn the spotlight on her boss, telling David Gregory on Meet the Press 10 days ago that “President Obama has passed with flying colors every leadership challenge.” And while she insisted, not convincingly, “I’m out of politics, as you know, David, I don’t comment on it,” she quickly boosted her boss against his potential 2012 rivals.  “I think Americans are going to want to know that they have a steady, experienced, smart hand on the tiller of the ship of state, and there’s no doubt that that’s Barack Obama.”

It feels a little mean-spirited to be raising these questions about Clinton’s coverage on the day she lost her mother, Dorothy Rodham, at 92, but this is the week of the adoring press coverage. Again, I’m a strong Clinton admirer. But there’s something a little odd about the worshipful tone of these pieces. I still see a faint echo of Maureen Dowd’s analysis propping up Clinton and other female administration “hawks” in her continued effort to diminish Obama’s leadership and masculinity.   Dowd seems to be on vacation, or else we might see her to use these two profiles as another reason to pit Clinton against her boss.

I spoke with a close Clinton friend last week who insists the Secretary of State has no interest in either the role of vice president in 2012, or a presidential run in 2016, so I don’t think there’s any crusade for either job behind these admiring stories. Maybe her allies are just trying to make sure she gets credit for the great work she did, against all odds, for a man she was once accused of trying to destroy.

Continue Reading Close
Joan Walsh

Joan Walsh is Salon's editor at large.

Page 1 of 239 in Hillary Rodham Clinton