Baseball

Nine predictions and nine observations

The Yankees won't do it again, the A's will go far. And stop calling them "ballparks"!

Making predictions in March about who’s going to be playing baseball deep into October is a fool’s errand. The season is so long, so many unexpected things can happen. How many of the prognosticators so prevalent this time of year were talking last spring about the A’s and White Sox being the class of the American League and the Mets winning the pennant in the Senior Circuit? Who knew the Arizona Diamondbacks would win 100 games two years ago?

Not me, pal. In fact, the only time I came close to prediction perfection was in 1988, when I picked the Dodgers, Mets, A’s and Tigers to win the four divisions that existed at the time. Everything was going smoothly until Detroit came completely unhinged in the last two months and lost the A.L. East to Boston by one game. Putting an exclamation point on the collapse: Lou Whitaker, the Tigers’ star second baseman, tore up his knee in early September. You probably don’t remember that play where Whitaker got hurt. That’s because it happened when he did the splits while out dancing with his wife.

How could I have not seen that coming!

But that’s the fun of baseball. As right-handed poet Joaquin Andujar noted, you can sum it all up in one word: You never know.

So I foolishly give you my numerologically appropriate nine predictions and nine observations, in the full knowledge that I’m more than likely more wrong than right, as I’m sure you won’t hesitate to inform me even before Sunday’s first pitch. In defense of my picks, I’d like to say this single word to the members of the New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Oakland A’s, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds: No dancing, please.

Prediction 1: New York will win the A.L. East. The Yankees are beatable. Their bullpen took a hit by losing Jeff Nelson, and they’re starting to get a little creaky through the lineup. But nobody in this weak division can knock them off. I like Toronto’s shaky pitching and terrific lineup better than Boston’s shaky pitching (plus Pedro Martinez) and good lineup (minus the injured Nomar Garciaparra) for second place, but neither is strong enough to beat whoever doesn’t win the Central for the wild card. Baltimore will boost Tampa Bay out of the cellar.

Observation 1: The conventional wisdom is that the more championships you win, the harder it gets to keep winning, because of either the law of averages or, I don’t know, players getting complacent or something. Well, if you’ve ever been to a convention, you know there ain’t much wisdom around, and history hasn’t been kind to this way of thinking. So watch out for the Yankees again.

Prior to the 2001 Yanks, six teams have entered a season having won three or more World Series in a row: The 1939, ’52 and ’53 Yankees won the Series again; the 1975 Oakland A’s won their fifth straight A.L. West title but were swept in the playoffs by Boston; the 1954 Yanks won 103 games, but Cleveland won 111, making that year’s Yankees the best second-place team in A.L. history; and the 1940 Yanks won 88 games and finished third, two games behind Detroit, one behind Cleveland.

Which leads us to …

Prediction 2: The Yankees won’t win their fourth straight title this year. I mean, the law of averages has to catch up with them, right? Just kidding! Their age is catching up with them, and the addition of Mike Mussina won’t be enough. The Yankees will win the A.L. East, but they’ll fall in the playoffs. I admit this might be wishful thinking, but I like wishful thinking. It’s good for the economy. Here’s the prediction: Oakland wins the pennant.

Prediction 3: If I’m picking the A’s to win the flag, I guess I better pick them to win the West, so, OK, I do. But I’m not entirely convinced. I guess what I’m saying is that if they win the West, that means they didn’t stumble, which means they’re good enough to win the pennant. But they might stumble. They did help themselves by trading Ben Grieve for Johnny Damon, and the pitching looks good. But it also looks like it’s one sophomore slump and one old-guy breakdown away from being not so good, and Jason Isringhausen is not exactly a rock-solid closer. And the new high strike zone might do real damage to an offense that depends so heavily on walks.

Seattle won’t hit a lot — I don’t believe the hype about Ichiro Suzuki, the Japanese phenom — but the Mariners can pitch. (The Mariners can pitch — it sounds funny, doesn’t it? The way “The Indians are pretty good” sounded in the mid-’90s.) That should keep them close if the A’s do falter. The Rangers went out and got Alex Rodriguez, but they also got Andres Galarraga, Randy Velarde and Ken Caminiti, making them real contenders for the ’96 pennant. They and the Angels, in that order, will be also-rans.

Prediction 4: Speaking of the Indians: They’re pretty good. I’m picking them to win the Central over the White Sox. They were terrific in the second half last year, and their lineup, as usual, will score a lot of runs. The question is whether Cleveland’s mediocre and injury-plagued pitching will be better than Chicago’s mediocre and injury-plagued pitching. I say yes, but only because that squirrel in Pennsylvania saw its shadow last month. What I mean is, I don’t know, but they don’t pay me to say I don’t know. Anyway, whichever team doesn’t win the Central will be the wild card.

There will be a huge gap between second place and third, which I think Detroit, even without injured catcher Mitch Meluskey, will win over Kansas City, in case you care, which means you live in Detroit or Kansas City. And that you might need to get out more. The Royals will score some, but when your best pitcher is — if you don’t know, I’m not gonna tell you, and you don’t know, do you? — you’re not going anywhere. The Twins will finish last, and any year when the World Series is not played in the Metrodome is a pretty good year.

Observation 2: Actually a question. Am I the only one who thinks that unless Mike Sirotka’s injury debilitates him permanently, sending him to Toronto for David Wells was a bad idea for the White Sox? Chicago traded a pretty solid 30-year-old left-hander for a pretty solid 38-year-old left-hander. (Those will be their ages by mid-May.) The White Sox say they needed Wells, who has vast and successful postseason experience, to take that next step, winning in October. But the starters were fine in the Sox’s three-game sweep at the hands of Seattle last year: 19 innings, eight runs, seven earned. That’s a 3.32 ERA. Two of the starts were good enough to earn a win. The problem was that Chicago scored three runs in the last two games. How does Wells address that problem?

Observation 3: I don’t know how long this suddenly overused term has been around, but I’ve only been hearing it recently: inning eater. That’s a No. 4 or 5 starter who can be counted on to give you plenty of innings, which saves your bullpen. Those innings might not be so good — think of the Angels’ Scott Schoeneweis (7-10, 5.45 ERA, 6.3 innings per start last year) or the Mets’ Steve Trachsel (8-15, 4.80, 5.9 innings for Tampa Bay and Toronto) — but, by golly, they’re innings! This is thought of as a compliment, which tells you all you need to know about the state of pitching these days.

Prediction 5: St. Louis aside, the National League Central looks like baseball’s weakest division. The Cardinals shouldn’t have any trouble walking away with it, but there are some intriguing possibilities here. With the unbalanced schedule, an also-ran that has a decent year could fatten up on all those games against weak division-mates and win the wild card.

Everybody in the division has reason to be optimistic — that’s what spring training is for, after all. The hip prediction is that the Astros will rebound from their weirdly awful 2000 and make the playoffs. Maybe so, but I kinda like Cincinnati. I’m always intrigued when a team throws over one of those old-school, revolving-door managers (Jack McKeon in this case) for relatively fresh blood (Bob Boone, who managed Kansas City for two-and-a-half years). Plus, the Reds hit reasonably well last year even while Ken Griffey Jr. and Sean Casey struggled. Unless Griffey’s hamstring injury plagues him all year, there’s every reason to assume they’ll both bounce back. And Cincinnati’s pitching isn’t half-bad, although — Osvaldo Fernandez? — it’s a little thin. I’m picking the Reds as the wild card, just, you know, to have something to do.

The Pirates and Brewers are both in new ballparks, which sometimes gives a team a little goose, and both have go-getter new managers. (Pittsburgh’s Lloyd McClendon is in his first year, Milwaukee’s Davey Lopes his second.) Either team might surprise people. And the Cubs, with a happy Sammy Sosa, healthy pitching and a pretty good manager (Don Baylor), could be a middle-of-the-pack team if everything goes right. Of course, everything never goes right at Wrigley.

Observation 4: The Brewers and Pirates can sit in their new ballparks and think about teams that have gotten a boost from a new home in the past decade — the Giants, Mariners, Rockies and Orioles — and say, “Why not us too?”

Observation 5: The Brewers and Pirates are dreaming if they think their new ballparks are going to be some sort of magic bullet to improve their fortunes right away. Just look at the Astros, Tigers, Marlins and Rangers in the past decade. Not to mention the Louisville Colonels, who, as if I had to tell you, fell from ninth place to 11th in the National League after moving from the old Eclipse Park to the new one in 1893.

Observation 6: Nobody calls ballparks “stadiums” anymore. The rigorous standards of official nostalgia — which officially ain’t what it used to be — dictate that any building where big league teams play must look like it was built in the teens (only with luxury boxes) and must be called a ballpark, not a stadium. I don’t think I ever once heard a person use the word ballpark to refer to an actual building (as opposed to a metaphorical one, as in “Give me a ballpark figure”) until I was close to 30. Now, everything’s a ballpark. I miss stadiums. Dare I say it? I’m nostalgic for stadiums.

Observation 7: Teams that tailor their roster to their ballpark have a much better chance of winning if they have a big ballpark. Or even a big stadium. That’s because big-ballpark teams build around pitching, defense and speed, and that wins more games — home and road, regardless of the ballpark — than home runs. Good for the Rockies, who have abandoned their strategy of stocking their launching pad of a stadium with home run hitters. That always seemed pointless to me. If your stadium creates home runs, why do you need to get home run hitters? Get guys who can do other things. Your stadium will do the rest. And that way you’ll win some road games too. Detroit and Seattle have new digs that favor pitchers. Watch out for them in the coming years.

Prediction 6: The Rockies still won’t win the N.L. West. Neither will the Diamondbacks, who are too old, the Padres, too undermanned, or the Dodgers, who are the Dodgers. That leaves the Giants. A lot of people are calling this the toughest division, but unless the Giants’ pitching is ravaged by injury or something, they shouldn’t have much trouble repeating. On the other hand: The last time the Giants repeated anything was 1936-37, when they won back-to-back pennants. But they’re the pick here. If they have an off-year, 85 wins might take this division. Maybe Colorado after all.

Prediction 7: The Atlanta Braves will win the division. There, I said it. Everybody in the Western world knows the Braves will win their 10th straight division title, and everybody’s saying so, and when they do win, the Braves players, you watch, will talk about how nobody respected them all year. The Braves don’t look as overpowering as they have sometimes looked over the past decade. John Smoltz, Javy Lopez, Eddie Perez and Chipper Jones are all hurting to various degrees, Kevin Millwood hasn’t been able to get anybody out in spring training and this team still hands the ball to noted unstable person John Rocker in the ninth inning. And get this: The Braves, the pitching-loaded Braves, actually have perennial nine-game winner John Burkett in their rotation, and not as the No. 5 guy.

But who’s going to beat them? The Mets? Maybe. Bobby Valentine’s teams have a way of winning around 90 games regardless of preseason expectations, so if the Braves underachieve, the National League champs might sneak up on them. But New York will miss Mike Hampton. Replacement Kevin Appier’s 15 wins last year somehow don’t equal Hampton’s 15. And aside from Mike Piazza, who is one game closer to old age every time he takes his place behind the dish instead of moving to another position, and maybe Al Leiter, the Mets don’t look too inspiring. They’ll get a bunch of wins from playing the Phillies and Expos a lot, but so will the Marlins, who are young, talented, hungry and better than you think. The Marlins, the Mets and the second-best team in the Central Division (I’m saying Cincinnati) could have a pretty entertaining race for the wild card.

Last year the Phillies were the worst hitting team in the National League, had the worst bullpen and finished tied with the Cubs for the worst record in baseball. And yet that doesn’t really do justice to how bad they were. This year, they look worse. Vladimir Guerrero and Jose Vidro alone ought to be enough for the Expos to finish ahead of the Phillies, which ought to be a real thrill for all 487 fans in Montreal.

Observation 8: Imagine if there were no such thing as a wild card. There might be a pretty decent pennant race in the National League between good teams, like the Braves and Giants, Braves and Cardinals or Cardinals and Giants, depending on how you want to imagine the league being aligned, or in the American League between, say, Oakland and Chicago or Cleveland and New York. Remember pennant races? The first requirement for having them: no wild cards. If it’s not possible for the second-best team in the league to miss the playoffs, there can’t be a great pennant race, defined here as a race between the two best teams in the league, with the loser eliminated.

Prediction 8: Ever mindful of the ability of Tony La Russa’s teams to lose in the postseason, I’m picking the Cardinals to survive the playoffs and win the National League pennant. I think Mark McGwire will get to 600 homers this year, and that it’ll be his last hurrah. That doesn’t count as an actual prediction, though, if you’re keeping score. Even without Big Mac, the Cards are the pick.

Prediction 9: Oakland over St. Louis in the World Series. A “small-market” (as in, the fourth largest market in the country) team triumphs by beating its old manager, who led them to two stunning Series defeats a decade ago. I’m still using that shaky logic here that the A’s might not win the West, but if they do, they’re the team to beat in the postseason. Really, if you say it enough times to yourself, it starts to make sense.

Observation 9: Soothsaying about the World Series in March makes me feel like one of those bogus “futurists” who tell us what life’s going to be like 50 years from now. I really have no idea what I’m talking about, of course, but who’s going to check up on me? By the time the season ends, no one will remember that I foolishly had the Indians beating out the White Sox, or the Reds winning the wild card. And anyway, the beauty of the Web is that I plan to bribe a copy editor to go into the archives at the end of the season and correct this story with the real winners.

Just in case that doesn’t work, here are my predicted standings in easy-to-ridicule format.

A.L. East: New York, Toronto, Boston, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
A.L. Central: Cleveland, Chicago (wild card), Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota
A.L. West: Oakland, Seattle, Texas, Anaheim
N.L. East: Atlanta, New York, Florida, Montreal, Philadelphia
N.L. Central: St. Louis, Cincinnati (wild card), Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago
N.L. West: San Francisco, Colorado, Los Angeles, Arizona, San Diego
World Series: Oakland over St. Louis

But as Joaquin Andujar should have said to Lou Whitaker: You never know.

King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr

Guillen’s pro-Castro candor

The Miami Marlins' manager is lucky to get a suspension. Not so long ago, he might have received a car bomb.

A contrite Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen gestures at a news conference on Tuesday. (Credit: AP/Lynne Sladky)

There’s not much reason to doubt that baseball manager Ozzie Guillen admires Fidel Castro. He said so five years ago in an interview with Men’s Journal. When asked to name the toughest man he knew, Guillen replied, “Fidel Castro. He’s a bull—- dictator and everybody’s against him, and he still survives, has power. Still has a country behind him. Everywhere he goes, they roll out the red carpet. I don’t admire his philosophy; I admire him.’’

No one cared about that macho thought because Guillen was skipper of the Chicago White Sox at the time. As the newly hired manager of the Miami Marlins, Guillen repeated the notion to Time last week–”I respect Fidel Castro,” he said. “You know why? A lot of people have wanted to kill Fidel Castro for the last 60 years, but that [expletive] is still there”–and he found himself on the brink of unemployment.

As Miami’s Cuban-American talk radio hosts whipped up a storm of protest, the Marlins denounced Guillen and suspended him for five games. On Tuesday the chastened manager repudiated his statements, said Castro was a bad man, and apologized “on my knees.” With Guillen’s job hanging in the balance, most sportswriters attributed the controversy to his big mouth: He is known for insulting gays and admitting he likes to get drunk often.

But Guillen’s real problem is Cuban Miami, where enforcing the anti-Castro party line is a more popular pastime than baseball, not the least because the Marlins owners arranged to stick the city’s taxpayers with the bill for their new $640 million ballpark in Little Havana while depriving local residents of legal parking spaces. The combination of Guillen’s candor, Miami politics, and the Marlins’ arrogance is what has brought the Cooperstown-bound skipper to the brink of being fired.

The city has never shown much tolerance for people who say nice things about Castro. In 2000, Jim Mullin, editor of the city’s alternative weekly New Times, compiled a chronology of violent intolerance that has few parallels in modern America. In 1975 a Cuban American man was murdered after advocating closer relations with Castro’s Cuba. In 1978, an anti-Castro talk radio host had his legs blown off by a car bomb because he dared criticize his fellow exiles for resorting to violence. In 1983, the Little Havana branch of a Miami bank was bombed because one of its executives had negotiated with the Castro government for the release of 3,600 political prisoners. In 1998, a bomb threat emptied a concert hall during a performance by Compay Segundo, a 91-year-old musician made famous by the movie “The Buena Vista Social Club.” All told, Mullin found more than 40 instances of bomb threats and explosions directed at people who had somehow offended the anti-Castro orthodoxy.

A 1994 Human Rights Watch report on the sorry state of free speech in Miami concluded,  the city is “dominated by fiercely anti-Communist forces who are strongly opposed to contrary viewpoints.” The HRW reports linked these forces to “acts of repression ranging from shunning to violence.” The reports found “significant responsibility” by the government at all levels, including “direct harassment by the government and government support of groups linked to anti-free speech behavior.”

That tradition continued this week when two local politicians injected themselves into the controversy by calling for Guillen’s firing. The call was echoed by a vigilante group known as Vigilia Mambisa, which describes itself as “a hard-line, right wing, Anti-Castro, Anti-Communist group of dedicated Cuban-American demonstrators … known for their rapid response to calls for protest aired on Miami Spanish-language stations.”  The group is calling for a boycott of the Marlins until Guillen is fired.

The problem is Miamians are already boycotting the Marlins. The team ranked 28th out of 30 major league teams in attendance last year. Dario Moreno, a professor of political science at Florida International University, said, “I don’t think this is a free speech issue. There’s a lot more tolerance than there was 30 years ago.” Moreno noted that south Florida’s three Cuban-American congressional representatives and the state’s Cuban-American senator have not called for Guillen to be fired.

“This has more to do with the Marlins and a community that invested large sums of money in their stadium over the objections of lots of people,” Moreno said. “The promise was that they would bring the community together and give us something to be proud of. It’s not working out very well.”

Moreno says he thinks Guillen may be able to keep his job if the Marlins muzzle Guillen (good luck with that) and reach out to the community. “The baseball fans are willing to let this one go by if he just promises to not talk politics,” Moreno said.

“As a Christian, I accept his apology,” said Alberto Muller, a former newspaper columnist who spent 15 years in a Cuban prison. “But in Miami, not everybody is a Christian.” Muller thinks Guillen will be fired.

A Miami Herald online reader survey found 57 percent of 2,500-plus respondents saying Guillen’s five-game suspension was sufficient punishment. If Guillen only loses his job for expressing admiration for Fidel’s toughness, it will be a sign of civic progress. Not long ago, he might have lost his legs or his life.

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Jefferson Morley

Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday).

The year of the baseball book

From a treatise on Yankee hating to a "people's history," a number of great books covered the national pastime

This article appears courtesy of The Barnes & Noble Review.

A simple and unsettling calculation reveals to me that this year marks the 40th anniversary of my coming to New England and setting up shop as a Red Sox fan. How innocent I was in that distant day: how little I understood the faces etched with pain, the haunted eyes, the lips that writhed in uttering “Yankees.” It did not take long to become afflicted by the same symptoms and, in my time here, certain Yankee-related events have been so traumatic that they are best designated by numerals alone: 1978 and 2003. The ALCS of 2004 (when the Red Sox came from a 0-3 game deficit to vanquish the evil ones) changed the region’s mental landscape — as, of course, did the subsequent World Championship(s). Since then, Yankee hating has become more of a pleasant pastime than a crippling mental and spiritual disorder.

Barnes & Noble Review
It is in this happier frame of mind that I turn to “Damn Yankees: Twenty-Four Major League Writers on the World’s Most Loved (and Hated) Team,” edited by Rob Fleder. Among the two dozen pieces is the funniest consideration of Yankee hating I have ever read. “Take Me Out to the Oedipal Complex” is illustrator and writer Bruce McCall’s confession that, because his father was a Yankee fan, he himself embraced hating the team, leaving little anti-Yankee pamphlets of his own making around the house for his father to stumble upon. It was his own “unique form of patricide” and constituted his identity: “We Yankee-haters, by God, knew who we were. We were losers. We also knew that the devoted Yankee fan, wallowing in his smug prosperity, betrayed a contemptible character flaw. He was not only a front-runner but also a weakling and a sissy and a stranger to the humiliation and failure that toughens the spirit, readying you for more humiliation and failure.”

All-out Yankee attacks are actually few in this book, Frank Deford’s may be summed up succinctly: Y$a$n$k$e$e$s, and Nathaniel Rich’s more forlornly: Mets fan. Charles Pierce, though a Red Sox supporter from birth, writes sympathetically of the proud ethnic divisions in his native Worcester, which — thanks to Joe DiMaggio — put an island of Italian-American Yankee fans in the middle of Massachusetts. Among the other contributors, who range from Jane Leavy to Colum McCann, are Peter Dexter with a mean-spirited, humblebragging consideration of Chuck Knoblauch, and Dick Telander with an appreciative one of Jim Abbott. Economist James Surowiecki provides an excellent assessment of George Steinbrenner’s contribution (marketing genius). Derek Jeter has two big fans in Roy Blout Jr. and Tom Verducci, while Bill James asks the question that may — or may not — have given you sleepless nights: “Did you ever find yourself wondering which season was the greatest ever by a Yankee catcher?” I will reveal the season (1950) and the player (Yogi Berra) because that is only the beginning. James, a driven man, pushes on, with amusing commentary, to rank the 100 best seasons for Yankee catchers.

The catcher who appears most often in high places on that list is also the costar of Harvey Araton’s “Driving Mr. Yogi: Yogi Berra, Ron Guidry, and Baseball’s Greatest Gift.” Guidry, who had played for the Yankees during Berra’s time as a coach and last tenure as manager, has, for over a decade, picked up the ancient backstop every spring at the Tampa airport to drive him to the Yankee training camp. Around that annual journey are spun a number of tales including the story of Berra’s mighty fourteen-year umbrage at a highhanded George Steinbrenner, which was finally resolved in a July 1999 celebration of Berra’s return to Yankee Stadium. The event was elevated by the perfect game pitched that afternoon by David Cone — triumphantly bringing back the memory of Berra’s own role in Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series. We find here too the introduction of frogs’ legs by the Louisianan Guidry into Berra’s diet and a sense of the deep friendship between two great baseball men.

The title of Tim Wendell’s “Summer of ’68: the Season That Changed Baseball, and America, Forever” is one that could be used, mutatis mutandis, as we say around the farm, for any number of seasons. Nonetheless, outside the park, 1968 was a doozy, marked by assassinations, riots, an increasingly unpopular war, and a violent Democratic Convention in Chicago. The effects of this were felt inside the park as racial tensions increased and a number of players had to interrupt their time on the field for military training. As for the game itself: it was a season of phenomenal pitching, with the magnificently fearsome Bob Gibson emerging with a preternatural 1.12 ERA (and 1.67 in the World Series). Alas, the season’s hurling greatness changed the game forever: the next year saw the mound lowered by six inches and the designated hitter appear in the American League. The book includes excellent photographs and is strongest when it concentrates on baseball.

The “gentlemen’s agreement” that banned black players from organized profession baseball was struck behind closed doors toward the end of the nineteenth century. In “Conspiracy of Silence: Sportswriters and the Long Campaign to Desegregate Baseball,” Chris Lamb shows that the ban was maintained in great part by its existence never being acknowledged. The book is a chronicle of bad faith, on the part of owners and organizational big bugs, and of a press that remained generally silent on the subject. It is also an absorbing account of how that silence was finally broken. Key to this were a few white sports reporters, a few black ones from the black press, and the (Communist) Daily Worker, a paper that, until the Nazi-Soviet Pact of 1939 was far more influential than most of us can quite take in today. The entrance of the United States into the war against a racist regime made baseball’s own racial hypocrisy increasingly untenable, which fact was increasingly reflected in the formerly circumspect mainstream press. In the largest sense, Lamb shows how pivotal the desegregation of baseball was to that of the nation as a whole.

Mitchell Nathanson claims that “A People’s History of Baseball” “is baseball history from an alternative point of view,” and to that end it visits some of organized professional baseball’s most notorious institutions and episodes, among them segregation; the Reserve Clause; the banning of players from the game without due process; the blind eye turned by club owners to “performance-enhancement drugs” and subsequent scapegoating of a few players; and the battle over who owns baseball statistics. Nathanson’s goal is to reclaim baseball and its story from those who have spun a falsely uplifting version, first among the guilty being Henry Chadwick (a.k.a. the Father of Baseball), who promoted ideologically skewed statistics (in Nathanson’s opinion) and offered baseball as an edifying example of individual sacrifice and teamwork (bad). To offer Chadwick as villain is a real stunner to my way of thinking, but in this case even more so as his success in making statistics integral to baseball made possible what Nathanson considers — most eccentrically — to be the means of restoring the game to both players and fans. That is fantasy baseball: the game that takes the actual game out of baseball.

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The Marlins’ bizarre new look

The team's revamped logo involves a whimsical rainbow swoosh. The effect is anything but intimidating

So far the biggest story to come out of baseball’s early off-season isn’t some splashy free agent signing or the abrupt retirement of St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, but that of the logo and uniform redesign of the Florida Marlins. The new look was officially announced on Friday, and if you haven’t seen them already, you might not believe your eyes. In fact, when some of the images of the new logo were leaked there was such shock and disbelief by the baseball world, most people assumed it was a farce, calling the look everything from “Hawaiian Shaved Ice” to “Push-up Pop” to “Rainbow Bright.”

Florida Marlins

The rebrand was planned as part of the team’s big move to their new stadium, New Marlins Ballpark (which also sports a logo with a rainbow motif), a baseball-only park with a retractable roof to keep the tropical rains away. With a name like New Marlins Ballpark, the powers-that-be decided the team needed a new identity as well. So not only are the uniform colors radically different, but the team will now be called the Miami Marlins.

Gone is the teal, silver and black color scheme the team has worn since its inception in 1993 (and in which it won two World Series), and in its place, as you can see, is a curious combination of oranges, yellows, blues and assorted other bright hues. Gone too is the detailed illustration of the eponymous fish, bursting around and through the logo with furious determination. Instead there is now a whimsical suggestion of a marlin swooshing from some unclear source out of the Aztec-influenced M letterform. Whatever its origin, one thing is sure: The overall effect is anything but intimidating.

In addition to the new logo and color scheme, new uniforms will also be revealed. Again, this look isn’t certain to be the one unveiled on Thursday (and in light of all the backlash, it’s entirely possible the Marlins’ design team has gone back to the drawing board) but this is what has been floating around the ether and seems to make sense based on the logo. White home jerseys with black caps. Away grays with a radically out of place blue cap (that strangely echo the original Tampa Bay Devil Rays uniforms). And some assortment of combinations for Fridays and other games.

Apparently the team’s (and stadium’s) colorful new look is meant to reflect the multicultural heritage of the many diverse ethnic groups living in the area. But you have to wonder if the Marlins’ head honchos learned nothing from the atrocious Houston Astros uniforms of the mid-1970s (known as the “rainbow era”) that made even Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard, at left (two of the era’s most dominating pitchers), look a tad sheepish.

Not to say orange is a bad choice for a sports team (the Giants, Orioles and Tigers pull it off pretty well), but it does require some tasteful design skill and a healthy grasp of workable color palettes.

Perhaps it’s not the worst logo ever (for some ideas on that front click here); there are always the Chicago White Sox shorts and collared unis from the ’80s to claim that distinction. But if this is indeed the look of the new Miami Marlins, my guess is it won’t be around long.

Copyright F+W Media Inc. 2011.

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Exonerating Bill Buckner

25 years after the Red Sox infielder's infamous World Series error, we look at what really happened that October

(Credit: AP)

Bill Buckner’s error in the 1986 World Series – 25 years ago today, a day of infamy for Red Sox fans — is one of the two most famous plays in World Series history. (Willie Mays’ catch in the 1954 fall classic is the other.)

Like Mays’ over-the-shoulder catch, Buckner’s booboo is entrenched in American folklore. Jimmy Fallon’s Red Sox fanatic in “Fever Pitch,” distraught over breaking up with his girlfriend, watches Buckner’s play over and over on his VCR. During congressional hearings in 2008, U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., called former Treasury Secretary John Snow, then-SEC chief Christopher Cox and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan “three Bill Buckners.” On “Curb Your Enthusiasm” this season, Larry David loses a softball game when a ball rolls between his legs; his coach screams, “You Buckner-ed me!”

Everyone knows that Buckner lost the 1986 World Series for the Red Sox. But what everyone knows is wrong.

At the time, the Red Sox were burdened with 68 years of frustration; their last championship was in 1918. Leading three games to two against the New York Mets, Boston was ahead by a score of 5-3 in the bottom of the 10th inning. Red Sox pitcher Calvin Schiraldi got two quick outs. In the Sox locker room the champagne was iced, and the scoreboard flashed “Congratulations Red Sox.”

Gary Carter, Kevin Mitchell and Ray Knight all singled, and the score was 5-4 with Mitchell on third. Reliever Bob Stanley came into the game to pitch to Mookie Wilson and threw a wild pitch that brought Mitchell home and tied the score. But it’s the next play that still has Red Sox fans screaming in the middle of the night.

Stanley threw a sinker-ball, designed to produce ground balls to infielders. What was supposed to happen did happen—Mookie Wilson tapped a slow grounder at Buckner at first base. But the ball rolled between Buckner’s legs, and the Mets won in the most incredible finish to a World Series game ever. (See it with commentary by the inimitable Vin Scully.)

Buckner’s career changed in an instant. Up to that moment, he was one of the game’s great unsung hitters. He’d batted better than .300 seven times in his career, winning the 1980 American League batting title. He led the league four times in assists. During that crucial September 1986 playoff run, he carried the team, hitting .340 with eight home runs. All that was soon to be forgotten.

The scholar Stephen Jay Gould (in Natural History magazine) called him “a gallant first baseman and a veteran with a long and distinguished career.”

“For weeks,” wrote Gould, “manager John McNamara had been benching Buckner for defensive purposes during the last few innings of games with substantial Red Sox leads, but after a long and hard season, Buckner’s legs were shot … he could hardly bend down.”

Plagued with chronic ankle soreness—he was the first player to wear high-top baseball cleats to ease the pain— Buckner had been relieved in three previous series games by Dave Stapleton. Why was he still playing when Wilson hit the ground ball? Because McNamara was sentimental; he wanted his regulars on the field when the Red Sox won the series.

But Buckner’s error did not lose the championship for the Red Sox; it didn’t even lose Game 6 for them — the Red Sox had already blown their two-run lead. Two nights later, with another chance at the ring, Boston lost 8-5.

(Buckner, incidentally, had two hits in four at-bats and scored a run in Game 7.)

Red Sox fans cried “Curse of the Bambino”—the punishment Boston supposedly merited for selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees in 1919—but the focus of the curse that season was Buckner. Yet Buckner did not put the tying runs on base. He didn’t throw the wild pitch that made it 5-5. He did not make the decision to keep his defensive replacement on the bench. Had he made the play, the Red Sox could have lost the game anyway.

When so many others contributed as much or more to the Red Sox defeat, why has history made Buckner the goat? Perhaps Gould said it best when he suggested that in the collective minds of Red Sox fans, “If Buckner fields the ball properly, the Sox win their first World Series since 1918 and eradicate the Curse of the Bambino. In this scenario, Buckner’s miscue marks the unkindest bounce of all, the most improbable trivial little error sustained by a good and admired man. What hath God wrought?”

What God wrought, perhaps, was a curse on both teams. The New York Mets have not won another World Series since; their greatest stars on that 1986 team —pitcher Dwight Gooden and slugging outfielder Darryl Strawberry—saw their careers cut short by drug abuse. In 2007 and 2008, the team crumbled down the stretch and missed the playoffs. And this year, the Red Sox, who seemingly broke the Curse by winning the World Series in 2004 and 2007, suffered the all-time worst collapse in baseball history, losing 20 of their last 27 games.

But that was kid’s play for what God had in mind for Donnie Moore. Red Sox fans were quick to forget that they never would have had a crack at their own little tragedy had it not been for Donnie Moore. Boston made it to the World Series by beating the then-Anaheim Angels in the American League Championship Series. After four games, they were in better shape against the Red Sox than the Red Sox ever were against the Mets.

On Oct. 12, 1986, playing in Anaheim, the Angels were up three games to one with a 5-2 lead going into the top of the ninth. Then, a real curse revealed itself. Don Baylor hit a two-run homer to make it 5-4. Moore had been a fine relief pitcher that season, tallying 21 saves. With two outs and the tying run at second, Moore got two strikes on Dave Henderson, then tried to slip a fastball by the Red Sox outfielder. The pitch changed his life. Henderson slammed it to deep left field for a two-run homer. On TV, Al Michaels screamed, “Unbelievable! Astonishing! With one strike away Anaheim Stadium was one strike away from turning into Fantasyland! You’re looking at one for the ages here!”

Like Buckner, Moore was damned for losing the big one. What was forgotten is that the Angels came back to tie it, and Moore, still in the game, induced Jim Rice to ground into a double play. But in the 11th, the Red Sox scored another run off Moore on a sac fly by – of course – Dave Henderson. The Angels lost 7-6.

But that still left them with two chances to win their first-ever pennant and trip to the World Series. The Sox blasted the Angels pitching for 19 runs over two games and went on to meet their destiny against the Mets, without the slightest thought that they owed a great big ugly debt to sheer luck – one that would soon be repaid with interest.

Still, to Angels fans, it had all come down to the pitch that Donnie Moore threw to Dave Henderson. All the subsequent chances that they lost were the evil spawn of that one pitch.

For the next two years, Moore couldn’t walk out on the field without being booed, crushed and heckled. When he left the ballpark, fans were lineup to scream insults, even when he won. Moore began to drink heavily and his talents eroded. On July 18, 1989, Moore got into a shouting fight with his wife at their home in Anaheim Hills. He went to his closet, got an automatic pistol and, in front of his children, shot his wife and one of his daughters. The daughter drove herself and her mother to the hospital; they survived. Moore did not. Back in the house, with his son pleading for him to drop the gun, Moore shot and killed himself.

Now that is tragedy. That puts Bill Buckner’s error in perspective. It’s only a game, unless you choose to regard it as something more.

Meanwhile, the infamous Buckner ball, once owned by Charlie Sheen, is up for auction on eBay, asking price $1 million. The bid will close at the exact minute of the 25th anniversary of the play.

Now a successful businessman, Buckner has lived down the error by turning the joke on himself. On “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” he won the cheers of a New York crowd by catching a baby dropped from a burning building.

In 2008, he threw out the first pitch of the Red Sox home opener and got a standing ovation from the sell-out crowd. Somewhere, one has to feel, the Bambino himself was applauding.

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Allen Barra's next book is "Mickey and Willie -- The Parallel Lives of Baseball's Golden Age," from Crown.

What baseball tells us about racism

Most home-plate umpires are white -- and they seem to be hurting the careers of minority pitchers

Despite recent odes to “post-racial” sensibilities, persistent racial wage and unemployment gaps show that prejudice is alive and well in America. Nonetheless, that truism is often angrily denied or willfully ignored in our society, in part, because prejudice is so much more difficult to recognize on a day-to-day basis. As opposed to the Jim Crow era of white hoods and lynch mobs, 21st century American bigotry is now more often an unseen crime of the subtle and the reflexive — and the crime scene tends to be the shadowy nuances of hiring decisions, performance evaluations and plausible deniability.

Thankfully, though, we now have baseball to help shine a light on the problem so that everyone can see it for what it really is.

Today, Major League Baseball games using QuesTec’s computerized pitch-monitoring system are the most statistically quantifiable workplaces in America. Match up QuesTec’s accumulated data with demographic information about who is pitching and who is calling balls and strikes, and you get the indisputable proof of how ethnicity does indeed play a part in discretionary decisions of those in power positions.

This is exactly what Southern Methodist University’s researchers did when they examined more than 3.5 million pitches from 2004 to 2008. Their findings say as much about the enduring relationship between sports and bigotry as they do about the synaptic nature of racism in all of American society.

First and foremost, SMU found that home-plate umpires call disproportionately more strikes for pitchers in their same ethnic group. Because most home-plate umpires are white, this has been a big form of racial privilege for white pitchers, who researchers show are, on average, getting disproportionately more of the benefit of the doubt on close calls.

Second, SMU researchers found that “minority pitchers reacted to umpire bias by playing it safe with the pitches they threw in a way that actually harmed their performance and statistics.” Basically, these hurlers adjusted to the white umpires’ artificially narrower strike zone by throwing pitches down the heart of the plate, where they were easier for batters to hit.

Finally, and perhaps most important, the data suggest that racial bias is probably operating at a subconscious level, where the umpire doesn’t even recognize it.

To document this, SMU compared the percentage of strikes called in QuesTec-equipped ballparks versus non-QuesTec parks. Researchers found that umpires’ racial biases diminished when they knew they were being monitored by the computer.

Same thing for high-profile moments. During those important points in games when umpires knew fans were more carefully watching the calls, the racial bias all but vanished. Likewise, the same-race preference was less pronounced at high-attendance games, where umps knew there would be more crowd scrutiny.

Though gleaned from baseball, these findings transcend athletics by providing a larger lesson about conditioned behavior in an institutionally racist society.

Whether the workplace is a baseball diamond, a factory floor or an office, when authority figures realize they are being scrutinized, they are more cognizant of their own biases — and more likely to try to stop them before they unduly influence their behavior. But in lower-profile interludes, when the workplace isn’t scrutinized and decisions are happening on psychological autopilot, pre-programmed biases can take over.

Thus, the inherent problem of today’s pervasive “post-racial” fallacy. By perpetuating the lie that racism doesn’t exist, pretending that bigotry is not a workplace problem anymore, and resisting governmental efforts to halt such prejudice, we create the environment for our ugly subconscious to rule. In doing so, we consequently reduce the potential for much-needed self-correction.

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David Sirota

David Sirota is a best-selling author of the new book "Back to Our Future: How the 1980s Explain the World We Live In Now." He hosts the morning show on AM760 in Colorado. E-mail him at ds@davidsirota.com, follow him on Twitter @davidsirota or visit his website at www.davidsirota.com.

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