George W. Bush

Would you let your sister vote for this man?

From groping the breasts of TV hosts to making crudely sexist comments, Arnold Schwarzenegger has given machismo a bad name.

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 Would you let your sister vote for this man?

For Arnold Schwarzenegger — bodybuilder, movie star, family man and gubernatorial candidate — the world of women has always been full of wonderful surprises.

One day when you’re a young man pumping iron at Gold’s Gym in Venice, Calif., a “black girl” shows up naked, and all the guys get to take her upstairs for a gang bang. Out in public in the free-wheeling ’70s, stewardesses, waitresses and teachers — “a great many teachers,” actually — walk right up and say, “I really dig your body and want to fuck the shit out of you.” Now and again, “a blonde with great tits and a great ass” turns out to be as “smart as her breasts look.” And in your mid-50s, a role in a Hollywood movie gives you the once-in-a-lifetime chance to “take a woman, grab her upside down, and bury her face in a toilet bowl.”

“How many times do you get away with this?” Schwarzenegger asked Entertainment Weekly in a story published earlier this summer. He may be about to find out.

Since he announced his candidacy on “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” nearly a month ago, Schwarzenegger has enjoyed a mainstream-media free ride the likes of which is usually accorded only to men whose initials are George W. Bush. Despite the media largesse and Schwarzenegger’s efforts to position himself as a pro-choice moderate, the actor’s place in the polls has been less than dominant — depending on which poll you trust, he’s either even with anonymous Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante or just behind him. And now, new attention to his ways with women is calling into question the viability of the actor’s run for governor in California.

The problem for Schwarzenegger isn’t just a 1977 interview with Oui magazine that surfaced this week — although, with references to oral sex and group sex and admissions of drug use, the interview is clearly a problem. The real risk for Schwarzenegger is that women, the religious right and the Bush White House itself will be turned off by a pattern of raunchy talk — and allegations of raunchy behavior — that began in the 1970s and apparently continues into the present.

In anecdote after anecdote, article after article, from the 1977 Oui article to a July interview in Esquire, Schwarzenegger comes across a man who speaks in the rudest and crudest fashion possible about women, men and the things they sometimes do together. And if allegations made about Schwarzenegger in a 2001 piece in Premiere are true, his over-the-top and up-the-skirt attitudes about women translate to actions as well.

San Francisco-based journalist Connie Matthiessen got a hot blast of Schwarzenegger raunch when she happened across the actor in the mid-1980s. In an interview Friday with Salon, she recalled that she didn’t know who Schwarzenegger was and had never seen him before. When a friend pointed him out to her in a Santa Monica, Calif., cafe, Matthiessen couldn’t help but stare at his massive, muscle-bound physique. Schwarzenegger shot a look back her, and snarled: “The dildo convention is next door.”

“He said it in such a mean way,” Matthiessen says. “I was across the room, and it was such a brutal conversation. It felt like he had just slapped me, it was so contemptuous and dismissive and nasty.”

It wasn’t the first time that Schwarzenegger talked that way to — or about — women, and it certainly wasn’t the last.

If California voters somehow get a closer look at this X-rated, seemingly misogynist side of Arnold Schwarzenegger — that is, if their local newspapers and TV stations stop talking of Schwarzenegger’s attitudes in G-rated sound bites and begin to delve into the brutal crudeness of it all — they may soon begin to decide that there is a lot to not like about the man who would be governor.

“Arnold Schwarzenegger’s sexual stereotypes are beyond the pale,” said Katherine Pillar, the Los Angeles-based executive vice president of Feminist Majority, a national women’s organization working for women’s rights and empowerment. “It’s so appalling. He has shown a very disrespectful attitude about women, a lot of sexual stereotypes, and he clearly hasn’t outgrown it. I think the women of California have to ask themselves: Would they want this man to be governor, and, frankly, can they trust him?”

The Oui interview, now 26 years past, seems to capture the essence of the Austrian bodybuilder — a young man on the cusp of fame, living the L.A. high life with little sign of self-consciousness or self-criticism.

Oui: Can you push yourself too far?

Schwarzenegger: … Injuries happen when your mind is beyond your body, largely when you think you’re King Kong and lift weights heavier than the body can handle. At the same time, though, we generally manage to have a good time. Bodybuilders party a lot, and once, at Gold’s — the gym in Venice, Calif., where all the top guys train — there was a black girl who came out naked. Everybody jumped on her and took her upstairs, where we all got together.

Oui: A gang bang?

Schwarzenegger: Yes, but not everybody, just the guys who can fuck in front of other guys. Not everybody can do that. Some think that they don’t have a big-enough cock, so they can’t get a hard-on. Having chicks around is the kind of thing that breaks up the intense training. It gives you relief, and then you go back to the serious stuff.

Freelance writer Peter Manso interviewed Schwarzenegger for the porn magazine Oui in 1977. He spent several days with the 29-year-old bodybuilder as he traveled through the Northeast promoting the low-budget documentary “Pumping Iron.” Manso was struck, he told Salon this week, by two things from his travels with Arnold: how Schwarzenegger effortlessly charmed his way out of getting busted when a security guard caught the two of them smoking a joint in a museum stairwell, and how Schwarzenegger inserted a sexual undercurrent into every encounter with every woman he met.

“You could not walk down the street with Arnold Schwarzenegger without sensing the flirtation,” Manso said. “He seemed to be chemically incapable of having an exchange with any female without there being sexual innuendo or sexual byplay.”

Schwarzenegger all but admitted as much in the ’77 interview. Manso quoted Schwarzenegger as saying that he had been “approached by waitresses, stewardesses, teachers — come to think of it, there have been a great many teachers, women who are smart. Their trip is such a mental one that they are often attracted to men who are big and muscular.” Manso asked Schwarzenegger if he felt “exploited” by such women. Arnold said no. “I’d feel used only if I didn’t get something out of it,” he said. “If a girl comes on strong and says, ‘I dig your body and want to fuck the shit out of you,’ I just decide whether or not I like her. If I do take her home, I try to make sure I get just as much out of it as she does. The word ‘exploited’ therefore wouldn’t apply.”

Manso’s five-page interview with Schwarzenegger was buried under the dust in a thousand guys’ closets until somebody named kozmo23 put a copy of it up for bid on eBay last week. He billed it as the interview Schwarzenegger would “prefer to bury” in a “deep hole,” and he urged bidders to snap up a copy before Gov. Davis beat them to it. By Wednesday night, thesmokinggun.com had “leased” a copy of the interview and posted it on the Web; by Thursday morning, Matt Drudge was hyping the piece as “shock interview” in which Schwarzenegger “pumps up orgies and dope.” By the end of the day Thursday, the bidding on kozmo23′s magazine had topped $700, and additional copies of the issue were beginning to sprout up on eBay.

The Bush White House was silent about Oui — things with French names are never popular there — but some of its allies on the religious right were plainly mortified. The Rev. Lou Sheldon’s ultra-right Traditional Values Coalition launched a stop-Arnold campaign at about the time a photo of a youthful Schwarzenegger between the legs of a topless woman popped up on the Web, and Sheldon seemed more determined than ever this week to terminate Schwarzenegger’s candidacy. In an interview with the Los Angeles Times, Sheldon said it is incumbent on Schwarzenegger to “repudiate and repent.”

Schwarzengger’s campaign staff did not return a call from Salon for this article. But the Terminator had predicted on Leno’s show that he would face allegations of womanizing as part of a dirty campaign against him, and during a radio talk show in California Wednesday he brushed the interview aside as ancient history. “I haven’t lived my life to be a politician,” he said.

That “old news” approach has worked for Bush’s days as a drunk and the three DUIs shared by the Bush-Cheney ticket. But it’s a harder sell for Schwarzenegger because his trash talk about sex — and the allegations that he has engaged in inappropriate behavior with women — didn’t stop back in 1977.

“The tabloid press got a nice Christmas present late last year when Arnold Schwarzenegger tore through a day of publicity work in London … In less than 24 hours, the star was said to have attempted to, as high school boys used to say, ‘cop a little feel’ from three different female talk-show hosts.

“The level of consternation expressed by those who received this hands-on treatment … ranged from none whatsoever (Denise Van Outen of ‘The Big Breakfast’ invites her guests to lie on a bed with her and, hence, probably has a rather elastic definition of what constitutes inappropriate behavior) to irked (on tape, Celebrity interviewer Melanie Sykes looks a little thrown off after Arnold gives her a very definite squeeze on the rib cage, directly under her right breast) to, finally, righteously indignant.

“Anna Richardson of Big Screen claims that after the cameras stopped rolling for her interview segment, Schwarzenegger, apparently attempting to ascertain whether Richardson’s breasts were real, tweaked her nipple and then laughed at her objections. ‘I left the room quite shaken,’ she says. ‘What was more upsetting was that his people rushed to protect him and scapegoated me, and not one person came to apologize afterward.’”

— “Arnold the Barbarian,” Premiere, March 2001.

Schwarzenegger surprised everyone, including his own political advisors, when he told Jay Leno that he had decided to enter the race to replace Gray Davis. But the recall campaign isn’t the first time Schwarzenegger has thought about running against Davis. Schwarzenegger has long had political aspirations — Manso said he was discussing them even back in 1977 — and he has, over the years, repeatedly talked of wanting to be the governor of California. In 2001, he was said to be thinking seriously about challenging Davis, an unpopular governor who was struggling through the state’s energy crisis.

But then came John Connolly’s Arnold exposé in Premiere. The article catalogued allegations of all sorts of boorish behavior, almost all of it directed at women, beginning in the early 1990s and continuing into the new century. During the filming of 1991′s “Terminator 2: Judgment Day,” Connolly alleged, Schwarzenegger fondled costar Linda Hamilton in a limousine and stuck his hands into the blouse of a female crew member, pulling out her breasts for the amusement of himself and a few of his friends. During the filming of 1996′s “Eraser,” Connolly alleged, a guest on the set happened upon Schwarzenegger performing oral sex on a woman in his trailer. As Salon reported last month, Schwarzenegger allegedly looked up from his work and uttered a line that has now become an inadvertent trademark of the Schwarzenegger campaign. “Eating,” he reportedly said, “is not cheating.”

Gray Davis’ campaign staff jumped on the Premiere article, faxing copies to political reporters with a note about the “touching story” contained therein. Shortly thereafter, Schwarzenegger decided not to run against Davis after all. While the mainstream press will likely prove too squeamish to run explicit tales of Arnold’s antics, and while Davis has been warned by at least one fellow Democrat not to run a “puke” campaign this year, it is hard to believe that Davis — or one of the candidates seeking to replace him — won’t find a way to revive the Premiere piece in the context of the recall race. And if somebody gets the vulgar side of Schwarzenegger out in front of voters, it’s likely that the actor’s support among all sorts of people — women, the politically correct, the religious right — will begin to plummet.

In a Field Poll taken two weeks ago, Schwarzenegger and Bustamante were tied among likely voters who are men, but Bustamante led Schwarzenegger by 5 percentage points among likely voters who are women. It is likely that stories about Schwarzenegger play into that difference, and the Field Poll’s Mark DiCamillo says it’s likely that candidates will find a way to exploit those stories as the race rumbles toward the Oct. 7 election.

“The real unknowns in this race are the negative ads to come,” DiCamillo said. “A lot of the stuff about Schwarzenegger and women will stick if the negative ads start hounding him on it. I’m sure he’ll basically say that was his past life and not really a part of his adult life or whatever. But I honestly am not great at speculating how that will cut. It depends on how he handles it.”

If the recent past is any indication, Schwarzenegger won’t handle it all that well. The Premiere piece, for example, seemed to strike a nerve with him. In an interview with the Weekly Standard last year, he described Premiere as “that magazine that wrote that shitty article about me,” and he claimed that the Premiere allegations were, at best, exaggerated. Yet he did so in a way that was every bit as crude as the allegations in the article itself.

“Half of it in there, right off the top, my wife [NBC News correspondent Maria Shriver] didn’t believe, so I didn’t have to explain it to her,” Schwarzenegger told the Weekly Standard. “When someone said [they] walked into my trailer, and I was eating a chick in the living room, she [Maria] knows I’m not that stupid, number one. Number two, I have two guards standing out at all times in front of my trailer so no one could walk in. That already makes the story not credible.”

Schwarzenegger admitted that he’s guilty of having a ribald sense of humor, but insisted that he had “toned it down because it has become a different world now, because of the sexual harassment. You do things that someone today may take as going too far.”

But the notion of evolving standards hasn’t seemed to bother Schwarzenegger much — at least if a July 2003 article in Entertainment Weekly is any indication. As set forth there, Arnie’s appetite for going over the top — particularly where dissing women is concerned — was even too much for the sensitive effetes who made Schwarzenegger’s latest action-adventure blowout, “Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines”:

… nothing in T3 bears Schwarzenegger’s creative stamp more than his epic tussle with the Terminatrix, a battle that begins in a bathroom. The sequence was made longer and more elaborate thanks to the actor’s largesse — and his singular imagination.

“As we were rehearsing, I saw this toilet bowl,” says Schwarzenegger, an impish smile crossing his face. “How many times do you get away with this — to take a woman, grab her upside down, and bury her face in a toilet bowl? I wanted to have something floating in there,” he adds. Apparently, he was vetoed. “They thought it was my typical ‘Schwarzenegger overboard,’” he says. “The thing is, you can do it, because in the end, I didn’t do it to a woman — she’s a machine! We could get away with it without being crucified by god-knows-what-group.”

— “The Running Man,” Entertainment Weekly, July 11, 2003

The California chapter of the National Organization for Women opposes the recall, supports Gray Davis and hasn’t taken a position on any of the replacement candidates. But if it were to do so, two things would matter: the candidate’s record and the candidate’s character. And in the eyes of NOW, the way a candidate talks about women can be an important element in judging the latter. “When somebody uses language that objectifies and sexualizes women, it’s questionable how that person can effectively lead or seriously address the questions involved in promoting equality, justice and women’s rights,” says Rachel Allen, California NOW’s public relations director.

In her bestselling book “You Just Don’t Understand: Women and Men in Conversation,” Georgetown University linguistics professor Deborah Tannen argues that men and women have different ways of talking. Women use conversation as “negotiations for closeness in which people try to seek and give confirmation and support and to reach consensus.” Men use conversation to obtain and maintain social status, to get the upper hand and keep it.

There’s some of that in Schwarzenegger’s rough talk about women, Tannen says, especially when he’s talking to male reporters. “It’s pretty clear that his intended audience in all these remarks is men,” she said. “He’s talking like a guy might talk in a locker room or in an all-male backstage setting.”

There’s also probably an attempt — common among politicians and business leaders — to portray himself as “just folks.” Tannen says that Schwarzenegger’s wife, Georgetown alumna and Kennedy cousin Maria Shriver, once made a similar attempt to down-class herself during a speech to graduating seniors at Georgetown. During the speech, Tannen said, Shriver made several references to “boob jobs.” Tannen remembers thinking that the comments were inappropriate and insensitive to the formality of the occasion. But they were nothing compared to Schwarzenegger’s apparent glee in ramming the Terminatrix — actress Kristanna Loken — into a toilet bowl. “He’s talking about how much fun he got out of humiliating a woman,” Tannen says. “I don’t know anything about what goes on in his head about his respect for women. But what his statement communicates to me is, at the very least, a public demeanor that is not appropriate for a public official.”

At best, Tannen said, Schwarzenegger’s rough talk shows that he lacks the “demeanor of a public official, even though some people might find that refreshing in some way.” At worst, she said, it raises serious doubts about Schwarzenegger’s real feelings. “When it comes to such crude language — and not just crude language, but a crude perspective on half the human race — it makes you wonder about his judgment in terms of changing his role from a thuggish movie icon to a public official.”

But Schwarzenegger would surely say that people have underestimated him before. As he explained in a July 2003 interview in Esquire magazine, nobody thought a bodybuilder could speak in complete sentences or have the fine eye for art needed to help design a Humvee. Appearances, Schwarzenegger told Esquire, can be deceiving.

Esquire: [People] wouldn’t expect such a tough guy to be an artsy guy, huh?

Schwarzenegger: Yeah, but I think that it’s more probably unusual because of the physical development. I mean, the thing is, if you have a certain physical development and you come into the scene as Mr. Universe, as the guy that lifts 500 pounds and does all those things, with that comes a certain image, a baggage. As much as when you see a blond with great tits and a great ass, you say to yourself, ‘Hey, she must be stupid or must have nothing else to offer,’ which maybe is the case many times. But then again there is the one that is as smart as her breasts look, great as her face looks, beautiful as her whole body looks, gorgeous, you know, so people are shocked.

“The Amazing Ahhnold,” Esquire, July 2003

Tannen is trying to be charitable now. She has just read Schwarzenegger’s prognostications about the intelligence of attractive blonds, and she’s trying to salvage something for him. “It definitely gives the impression that he’s trying to be extreme [in order] to be amusing or to make an impression,” she says. “But maybe the sentiment is that women can be as smart as men. This might be a way to say it to guys who wouldn’t hear it coming from Betty Friedan but who might hear it clothed in this particular bikini.”

Arianna Huffington doesn’t see it so charitably. The only woman among the major candidates in the race, Huffington said she sees a connection between Schwarzenegger’s comments about women and the dearth of women working in leadership positions in his campaign and the absence of women at the economic council meeting and photo op Schwarzenegger held with financier Warren Buffett and former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz. “In a state with two women senators and tens of thousands of successful women in business, academia, working as consumer advocates — I just found that stunning,” Huffington said.

And therein lies the puzzle about Schwarzenegger. As with the “compassionate conservative” in the White House, there are questions as to whether the Schwarzenegger who is running for office is the same Schwarzenegger who would serve in office. Is he the moderate Republican he claims to be in public, or is he the womanizing Neanderthal his comments to reporters make him seem to be? On a lot of levels, Schwarzenegger is a not-as-bad-as-he-could-be candidate for many women. He is generally pro-choice — although he has announced his opposition to late-term abortions — and he has middle-of-the-road views on other social issues. When compared to many of the candidates Republicans have run in California over the last decade, Schwarzenegger comes off as positively enlightened.

But for some, the divide between Schwarzenegger’s moderate political views and his impolitic statements about women and sexuality only serves to sharpen those questions. “I guess Schwarzenegger can read the polls as well as anybody else, and he knows that in the state of California you’ve got to be pro-choice and you’ve got to be pro-civil rights to get elected,” said the Feminist Majority’s Katherine Spillar. “But these other comments betray his real attitudes about women. He’s trying to play to women, going on ‘Oprah’ and saying he’s pro-choice. But women have got to be skeptical.”

Tim Grieve is a senior writer and the author of Salon's War Room blog.

Guess who’s coming to dinner?

George and Laura Bush dine with the Obamas

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Judy Gold

Emmy Award-winning actress and comedian Judy Gold is best known as the star of her two critically acclaimed off-Broadway shows, "The Judy Show - My Life As A Sitcom," and "25 Questions For A Jewish Mother." Judy has had her own comedy specials on HBO, Comedy Central and Logo. She appears regularly on Tru TV's World"s Dumbest. Check out www.JudyGold.com and follow her on Twitter at @JewdyGold.

Using Bush’s playbook

"Karl Rove politics" aren't quite dead: Obama's strategy in 2012 will mirror W's in 2004

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Using Bush's playbookGeorge W. Bush and Barack Obama (Credit: Reuters/Larry Downing)

Barack Obama’s presidency was born from nothing so much as his repudiation of George W. Bush’s administration — its policies and politics, its style and tone. One of Obama’s most effective 2008 stump speech refrains was his promise to end the era of “Scooter Libby justice, ‘Brownie’ incompetence and Karl Rove politics.”

But the political dynamics for winning a second presidential term often differ markedly from winning the first. So don’t be surprised by many eerie parallels between Obama’s 2012 reelection bid and Bush’s 2004 campaign. The president may not rely upon “Karl Rove politics” in the strictest sense, and nobody would confuse David Axelrod with Rove. But Obama’s reelection route and rhetoric may bear more than a few Rovian hallmarks.

Now that Mitt Romney has won the Republican nomination, two key features prevail over the 2012 campaign — and both were also plainly evident in 2004. First, the incumbent president’s reelection fortunes are far from certain; and, second, the incumbent faces a decent but nevertheless weak challenger who is further hampered by internal problems within his party’s coalition.

Because incumbents can’t run for reelection promising “change,” and because “hope” during a lingering recession was also off the menu, the Obama campaign’s 2012 theme of  “forward” — a word that often follows “plow,” mind you — was the best available alternative. That said, and substituting the economy for terrorism, Obama is implicitly if not explicitly advancing the same theme Bush did in 2004: America suffered a tough blow, but the situation could have been worse and, more to the point, under my stewardship the nation is steadily regaining its footing.

This counterfactual campaign theme — vote for me not because of what happened, but what might have but didn’t — is a common thread for Bush and Obama. It’s not an uplifting message, but it sufficed in 2004 and Obama is counting on it working again in 2012.

Politics 101 further dictates that when an incumbent’s reelection is in doubt, he must go negative against the challenger. Obama political operatives in the White House and at the Democratic National Committee long ago made it abundantly clear they were willing to do just that. Team Obama may not go negative against Romney to the degree the Bush camp did against John Kerry in 2004. (By mid-summer 2004, 75 percent of Bush’s TV ads were negative attacks on Kerry.) But don’t be surprised if attacks on Romney’s record and even character are plentiful, harsh and relentless. In 2008, America saw candidate Obama’s toothy grin; four years later, expect to see President Obama’s fangs.

Expect the Obama camp to emphasize two major critiques of Romney: that he is a flip-flopper willing to say anything or reverse any position to win; and that he is an economic royalist whose personal and public life suggest a person incapable of understanding the lives and struggles of average Americans. Again — note the unusual parallels with 2004.

Although Romney is a Republican former governor and Kerry was at the time his state’s Democratic junior U.S. senator, the two Massachusetts pols make for similar targets. Each man is an extraordinarily rich preppie and Ivy Leaguer. Each represents the liberal wing of his respective party. Each has shown a propensity for ruining an otherwise valid point with sloppy, backfiring language. And each has a reputation for lacking political spine.

The flip-flop frame is candidate character assassination of the first order. Like the lone negative number in a string of multiplied positives, the critique that nobody can trust any statement or claim made by a politician has the potential to negate every accomplishment or promise. If it sticks, it can be fatal, as Kerry learned in 2004.

Obama and the Democratic National Committee know their electoral history and, sure enough, last November — a year before the election and two full months before a single Iowan had caucused — the DNC released a four-minute “Mitt vs. Mitt” ad and its accompanying website with the damning tag line, “the story of two men trapped in one body.” The site is a brilliant homage to the Bush campaign’s 2004 windsurfer attack ad and the devastating, 11-minute ad the Republican National Committee produced chronicling Kerry’s “evolution” on Iraq.

And then there is what might be called “the Willard factor”: Romney as Richy Rich, the Monopoly Guy with the Bain Capital background and the Swiss bank account. His bio would be political gold to Romney’s opponent any election cycle, but it’s gold-plated platinum in the first full presidential campaign following the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression, the rise of the Occupy Wall Street movement, and the long overdue national debate over income inequality.

Again, the wealth-personified line of attack mirrors the out-of-touch, Martha’s Vineyard yoke the Bush team put around Kerry’s neck in 2004. Right on cue, in the first public event of his reelection campaign, last week Obama attacked Romney by name and invoked the economic disconnect card with relish. “He sincerely believes that if CEOs and wealthy investors like him make money the rest of us will automatically prosper as well,” said Obama of Romney, adding that “corporations aren’t people – -people are people.” (For the record, Kerry is actually wealthier than Romney, who would become one of the richest men ever to occupy the White House, should he win.)

Obama will also try to shift the national debate toward areas of strength, as Bush did. Historically, this meant the same strategy, but with inverse implications for each party: The so-called mommy party Democrats would encourage voters to focus on more favorable kitchen-table economy issues — healthcare, jobs, education — and away from less favorable “daddy party” Republican issues surrounding foreign wars abroad and culture wars. Because Obama is net-positive in foreign policy approval and net-negative on the economy, rather than mirroring by inversion, Obama will try to duplicate Bush’s shift-in-emphasis in 2004. GOP complaints that Obama is politicizing the killing of Osama bin Laden reveal Republican fears that Obama is going to play the terrorism card in 2012 just like Bush did eight years ago.

The 2004 parallels extend beyond message. Obama will be amply resourced and enjoy a field technology by virtue of his campaign’s state-of-the-art Web, donor, volunteer and social media innovations. Remember the Bush reelection campaign’s vaunted “72-hour” voter turnout model? That seems like an Edsel compared to the Ferrari the Obama team will be sporting this summer and fall. Among the perquisites modern presidential incumbents enjoy is the option to test-drive the best mobilization machines before anyone else.

Finally, what most connects Obama 2012 to Bush 2004 is the stability of the electoral map itself. Only three states — two net to Bush — flipped from one party to the other between 2000 and 2004; only nine states flipped between 2004 and 2008. Split the difference and a good, back-of-the-napkin over-under for number of states likely to flip between 2008 and 2012 is six. And thus, like the lead sailboat during a windless race, Obama doesn’t need or want conditions to change much from 2008: He merely has to replicate the map that swept him into office, with the burden of figuring out how to shake up the Electoral College falling to Romney, just as it did for Kerry against Bush. Even Karl Rove’s mapping of the 2012 election concedes this reality.

The 2008 election was memorable; to borrow the title of one best-selling chronicle, it was a “game changer.” But 2012 will not be. In many respects, it will be a game repeater, with Obama playing Bush to Romney’s Kerry of 2004. The president may be asking Americans to look “forward” in 2012, but the best preview of his reelection campaign can be found by looking backward eight years.

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The Bushies are back

Missed the neocons? Don't worry: Mitt Romney's getting the band together again

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The Bushies are back (Credit: Reuters/Win McNamee)

There was good reason for Republicans to cry foul over the Obama campaign’s advertisement highlighting the president’s killing of Osama bin Laden; the GOP has lost its decades-long edge on national security. According to a Washington Post poll, “By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans say the president’s handling of terrorism is a major reason to support rather than oppose his bid for reelection.”

Republicans lost their popularity on security issues for one reason: George W. Bush’s foreign policy was a disaster. And yet, the party’s nominee, Mitt Romney, has assembled a foreign-policy team composed almost exclusively of individuals with the same war-always mentality and ideology that served Bush — and the United States — so poorly. In some cases, the exact same men responsible for Bush’s catastrophic national security policies are advising Romney. The former Massachusetts governor could have included some of the pragmatists and realists from the George H.W. Bush administration. Instead, a Romney presidency seems like it would be Bush 43 all over again.

Richard Grenell, who served as United Nations spokesman under Bush, may be gone from the Romney campaign after an uproar over his sexuality, but there are plenty more former Bushies. First off, there are Romney’s “special advisors.” There’s Michael Chertoff, W.’s Homeland Security director. Chertoff oversaw DHS’s failures during Hurricane Katrina, and amassed unprecedented powers of secrecy. Next up is Eliot Cohen, counselor to the State Department for Bush’s last two years and on the Defense Policy Advisory Board for the president’s entire term. Cohen was an adamant supporter of the Iraq War and advised Bush directly on the issue. Or take Cofer Black, the man who infamously said to Bush in September 2011 about al-Qaida that “When we’re through with them they will have flies walking across their eyeballs.” Black went on to become chairman of Blackwater, where he resigned after the company illegally bribed Iraqi officials.

Then there are the 13 “working groups” composed of equally worrisome individuals. The Middle East and North Africa Working Group is co-chaired by Bush’s Assistant Secretary of Defense Mary Beth Long, and Meghan O’Sullivan, Bush’s special assistant and deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan. The remaining co-chair is Walid Phares, who never worked for Bush but advised Lebanese warlords in the 1980s. Romney has reportedly promised Phares a top job in his administration, despite his virulently anti-Islamic views.

All told, Romney lists 37 holdovers from the George W. Bush administration — the very same administration he and all other Republican candidates barely referenced during their many debates because it was so discredited and toxic, even to the Republican base.

It didn’t have to be this way. There are, in fact, people in Republican circles who are sensible on international affairs. The Cato Institute, in particular, has experts that could dramatically change the direction of American foreign policy. Men like Justin Logan and Christopher Preble were prescient on Iraq and a host of other issues. Similarly, the Center for the National Interest (formerly the Nixon Center) has a host of solid scholars, including ones like Dimitri Simes and Geoffrey Kemp, who have valuable government experience in the Nixon and Reagan administrations, respectively, and a history of perceptive analysis. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, would have been another good pick.

So why aren’t guys like this being tapped? Why is the GOP sticking with a discredited foreign-policy approach rather that looking to its own past for wiser counsel? “Most of the realists and pragmatists have simply been driven out of the Republican Party,” says Stephen Walt, who writes a blog at Foreign Policy and teaches at Harvard. “The neoconservatives have been driving the agenda since Bush was elected and they remain well-entrenched.”

Another factor is that the Republican Party’s base remains strongly militaristic and reluctant to recognize limits on American power. Jon Huntsman’s failed presidential campaign illustrated that problem. The good news is that nobody seems to be calling for nation-building and occupying foreign countries in the mold of Iraq and Afghanistan. But that’s the only lesson that seems to have been learned from the last decade of foreign-policy debacles.

Finally, it may just be that the United States has too much power to change course. While the Unites States has undoubtedly made disastrous decisions in the last decades, it is so powerful that it is largely insulated from the consequences of them. If Romney’s foreign-policy advisor list is anything to go by, a Romney administration would have to teach the U.S. all over again about the problems with trying to police the world. Prepare for Bush redux.

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Jordan Michael Smith writes about U.S. foreign policy for Salon. He has written for the New York Times, Boston Globe and Washington Post.

Bush aide blasts torture

Philip Zelikow tried to warn Bush on interrogations. Now he's penned an authoritative article on how he was ignored

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Bush aide blasts torture (Credit: Reuters/Jim Young)

The Bush administration hasn’t heard the last from Philip Zelikow. After the rediscovery last week of his long lost 2006 anti-torture memo, Zelikow, a former State Department official, has written arguably the most damning article yet about U.S. government’s interrogation policies from 2001 to 2009. The article, called “Codes of Conduct for a Twilight War,” will be released in a forthcoming issue of the Houston Law Journal, and was obtained exclusively by Salon. Says Zelikow in an email: “I’m not aware of other accounts that combine historical, policy and legal approaches to” the subject of the Bush administration’s interrogation methods.

Based on published histories and his firsthand observations, and adapted from a lecture delivered in November, the article calls the administration’s rationale for its use of torture — which he nonetheless insists only on calling “extreme interrogation” and “coercive methods” — “radical,” “an amazing contention,” “untenable and extreme,” “unsustainable,” “an unprecedented program of coolly calculated dehumanizing abuse and physical torment,” and, finally, simply a “mistake.” He concludes: “This was a collective failure of American public leadership, in which a number of officials and members of Congress (and staffers) of both parties played a part, endorsing a CIA program of physical coercion without any precedent in U.S. history.”  In fact, “The only defense against criminal prosecution would be that officials acted in good faith reliance on the advice of their government lawyers.”

Part of what makes Zelikow’s analysis so damning and definitive is its judiciousness. The article is deeply empathetic of the uniquely fearful situation under which the Bush administration was initially operating. Zelikow calls the Sept. 11 attacks a “collective trauma” and a “shoc[k] to mass beliefs.” He notes that Bush and others spent time in burn units, morgues and with survivors of the attacks. One traumatic experienced often overlooked — overlooked because it appeared in Stephen Hayes’ stenographic biography of Dick Cheney — was that the vice-president’s daughter was (falsely, it turns out) told that her house with her children in it had tested positive for anthrax. Similarly, Cheney and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice were told that they and others had been exposed to an extremely lethal toxin in a particular area of the White House — and might soon die as a result. “The alarms did not stop and they too were not abstract … The pressure on Bush and his senior advisers was so direct because so much of the response had to be invented and improvised,” the article reads.

An additional factor in the power of the article is Zelikow’s credibility and history. Before entering government, he was a civil rights lawyer in Texas battling the Ku Klux Klan and then a highly esteemed Harvard historian specializing in U.S. foreign policy — he co-authored one book with Rice. He then served on the National Security Council under President George H.W. Bush and directed the 9/11 Commission before becoming counselor to Rice at the State Department from 2005 to 2007. He currently volunteers part-time on the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board under President Obama.

Such bipartisan, establishment credentials render the breakdown and conclusion of this article all the more damning. He believes that what should have been a political and moral question — should the United States torture captives? — became strictly a legal matter left up to government lawyers, few of whom had any experience with these issues, and who had to take the necessity of extreme measures as a given. “These lawyers then became secular priests, granting absolution to the supplicant policymakers,” Zelikow writes.

The problems began when the Office of the Vice President and the CIA took central roles in policymaking. Cheney felt himself above the rest of the National Security Council, bypassing Rice and other traditional channels of national security policymaking. Ad-hoc decision-making and improvisation became “a habit of thought,” which seemed initially to pay off in the security of the nation, as well as in Bush’s political standing and self-confidence.

With Cheney and CIA head George Tenet “the key entrepreneurs in setting codes of conduct for the War on Terror,” it was essentially left to their obsequious lawyers to decide, in secret, on the interrogation methods America should employ. Bush even told the Senate’s Intelligence Committee chairman that “the vice president should be your point of contact … [He] has the portfolio for intelligence activities.” Decisions were made to jettison international treaties. By December 2001, the CIA was already interested in reverse-engineering methods “heretofore used only to treat Americans to resist enemy torture.” When a senior al-Qaida member was captured in March 2002, the prototype for the administration’s torture policies was already developed. “So, for the first time in American history, leaders of the U.S. government carefully devised ways and means to torment enemy captives.”

Zelikow notes that “None of the policy or moral issues connected with these choices appear to have been analyzed in any noticeable way.” Perhaps worst of all, no serious consideration was given to weighing the costs of benefits of the torture program, with reference to relevant historical precedents and/or examinations of the respective French, British and Israeli experiences in dealing with captured terrorists. “Bush and Rice should have insisted on this,” Zelikow writes.

The 52-page article observes the successes of Obama’s counterterrorism policies after repudiating the use of torture. On the basis of the empirical evidence then, “[t]here is no evident correlations between intelligence success and the available of extreme interrogation methods,” no matter what Bush and Cheney claim. Finally, “The program’s costs — which include the high-level effort expended in order to establish, maintain, and defense the program — appear on the evidence so far to have well outweighed any unique value the program might have had as a method of counterterrorism intelligence collection.” This is apart from the damage to America’s international standing and corrosion of its traditional values.

Zelikow concludes his analysis by arguing that, although the Obama administration has the right to wage war and use extralegal methods to defeat al-Qaida, its claim of that authority to defeat “associated forces” is unwarranted. “The U.S. government should publish and explain any overarching policy and legal documents that guide and confine the conduct of deadly operation against its foreign enemies … the executive branch of the U.S. government has a duty to articulate the scope of its warfare to the Congress and the public.” The Bush administration’s unprecedented elevation of torture to national policy may be history, but the job to get U.S. foreign policy in line with its constitutional and moral obligations is far from over.

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Jordan Michael Smith writes about U.S. foreign policy for Salon. He has written for the New York Times, Boston Globe and Washington Post.

Thomas Kinkade, the George W. Bush of art

The rise and fall of Thomas Kinkade, the Painter of Light™ in a decade of bad faith

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Thomas Kinkade, the George W. Bush of art

News of Thomas Kinkade’s death arrived on the same day I received in the mail a vintage teacup on which I had spent a ridiculous amount of money. It has a cottage painted on it. Kinkade, whose work has long exerted a morbid fascination for me (to the concern of all my friends), specialized in cottages. So some part of me understands the appeal, I guess, but, damn: Those paintings make my corneas hurt. And yet, I could barely stop looking at them.

Kinkade was only 54, and his family told the media that he died of “natural causes.” This comes after years of reports of drunken public misbehavior: cursing at people who tried to save him from falling off bar stools, heckling Siegfried & Roy, grabbing a woman’s breasts at a publicity event and, most memorably, urinating on a Winnie the Pooh statue at the Disneyland Hotel while proclaiming, “This one’s for you, Walt!” There were DUI arrests. Also, his manufacturing company declared bankruptcy two years ago, and former franchisees of the once-ubiquitous Thomas Kinkade Signature Galleries won settlements against him for fraud.

That’s quite a fall for a man who frequently spoke of his Christian faith and family values when asked to comment on the mammoth success of his brand in the early 2000s. “When I got saved, God became my art agent,” Kinkade explained in a 2004 video. He went from a childhood in Placerville, Calif. (invariably characterized as “hard-scrabble”) to an apprenticeship selling his work in supermarket parking lots to his apotheosis as the nation’s “most profitable” artist, the Painter of Light™, and multimillionaire. He was profiled in the New Yorker by Susan Orlean.

I first learned about the dark side of the Painter of Light™ — sorry, couldn’t resist that one — when I reviewed “his” novel, “Cape Light,” in 2002. The novel, first in a series, was produced much as his paintings are: by a semi-industrial process in which low-level apprentices embellish a prefab base provided by Kinkade. He wasn’t the only artist to work in this way; he wasn’t even the only novelist. To the best of my knowledge, his novels — heartwarming, fuzzily pious tales of small-town life — have been coming out ever since, one more facet of a lifestyle brand that, at its most ambitious, included an entire Thomas Kinkade-themed housing development.

My review was just a goof intended to amuse Salon’s readers, but after it appeared, I began to receive emails from people who had sunk their life savings in Thomas Kinkade Signature Galleries (essentially, mall and shopping-district outlets for his prints) and been fleeced. I didn’t really understand how the financial architecture of Kinkade’s gallery empire worked, and I sure didn’t share their taste in wall art, but these people struck me as decent and sincere. They’d believed in Thomas Kinkade — not just in the man or the company, but in the ethos supposedly represented by his work, one in which (to quote Kinkade’s introduction to “Cape Light”) “people have the time to savor life’s simple pleasures” and lead “deep, satisfying lives.”

My conversations with these victims made me uneasy. Was there some relationship between the franchisees’ naivete, perhaps even their willful self-delusion, and their terrible taste? Was it hopelessly snobby to wonder that? What about Kinkade himself? He seemed to be at best a hypocrite and at worst a crook. Was there a meaningful connection between his bad conscience and his bad art? German thinkers of the 1930s would have said so, and they had plenty of opportunity to observe bad fascist art up close. Hermann Broch maintained that someone who chooses to make kitsch is “ethically depraved, a criminal willing radical evil.” The novelist Milan Kundera believes kitsch to be the natural expression of totalitarianism. That’s a lot of moral weight to place on a bunch of garish cottage paintings, but Kinkade was always the first to present his work as a form of ideology.

I felt compassion for the ripped-off gallery operators, and at the same time I was aware that quite a few of them had probably also fallen for the similarly sanctimonious, bogus folksiness of George W. Bush, thereby subjecting our nation to one of the worst presidents in its history. Kinkade and Bush struck me as of a piece, probably because they had both borrowed from Ronald Reagan in promising that we could get back to a better way of life that never existed in the first place. In nearly every encounter with the press, Kinkade delivered a diatribe against the art-world “establishment” that had shut him out. They were “elites” touting unfathomable, downer junk to hardworking people who needed uplift instead. Art snobs were the aesthetic counterparts of the so-called liberal elites, a group that surely included me.

At the same time, I must admit that I, too, like a cottage. Granted, I like the stylized, art-deco kind painted on bone china, rather than the insanely detailed and phosphorescently lit specimens in Kinkade’s pictures. And I’m in little danger of equating my new teacup with a Brancusi just because it’s cheerier. Nevertheless, I suspect that my idea of what’s pleasing about a cottage isn’t too different from that of Kinkade’s fans: an aura of harmless coziness, of modest domestic beauty and comfort not too cut off from the past. It’s as if we’re speaking the same word, but in different languages.

I suspect this is why Kinkade’s paintings have exerted their weird, hypnotic effect on me. They are so preposterous (especially the stream-side ones; he really needed to sit down with an architect and go over the basics of drainage), so awful. And yet I can still detect — beneath that cacophony of hollyhocks and cobblestones and snapdragons — the whisper of something intelligible. I’m pretty sure I know why the hordes of Kinkade collectors love his work, even if I don’t like it myself. Kinkade’s paintings are irredeemably false, like all kitsch, but through them you can just barely glimpse the honest desires they seek to exploit, sinking under the dreck.

Kundera defined kitsch as “the absolute denial of shit,” meaning it offers an airbrushed, sterilized, sentimentalized view of the world. From that, it doesn’t necessarily follow that art wallows in shit, but art doesn’t exist for the primary purpose of denying it, either. Kitsch is, first and foremost, a lie; its very existence is founded on bad faith.

Kinkade, like Bush, peddled a falsely simplified image of the world — one without mildew or flooded basements, for one thing — which, no surprise, turned out to be plastered over a whole lot of stinky stuff. The true believers, the ones who bought into these men the most during the 2000s, ended up paying some of the highest prices, from the Kinkade acolytes who invested in his gallery Ponzi scheme to the working-class red-staters who sent off their kids to die in a pointless war. Bad taste, harmless as it may seem, can end up costing you a lot.

Further reading

Los Angeles Times obituary for Thomas Kinkade

Susan Orlean’s 2001 profile of Thomas Kinkade for the New Yorker

A 2006 Los Angeles Times story documenting Kinkade’s business problems

Salon’s Janelle Brown visits Hiddenbrooke, a Kinkade-theme housing development in Northern California

Laura Miller reviews “Cape Light,” a novel by Thomas Kinkade and Katherine Spencer

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Laura Miller

Laura Miller is a senior writer for Salon. She is the author of "The Magician's Book: A Skeptic's Adventures in Narnia" and has a Web site, magiciansbook.com.

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