Afghanistan
The rise of the baby al-Qaidas
Bush's failed strategy in the war on terrorism has spawned more al-Qaidas -- and they're funded by the booming heroin traffic in Afghanistan.
In the 30 months since President Bush’s declaration of war against global terrorism, the U.S. and its allies have ostensibly detained or killed 70 percent of al-Qaida’s senior leaders. But the frequency of terrorist acts worldwide attributed to al-Qaida has increased, compared to the pre-9/11 period. Baby al-Qaidas are being spawned in new regions of the world — striking from Turkey to Spain, from Uzbekistan to Tunisia — and a new generation of terrorists is stepping up to take the place of those killed in Afghanistan or detained in Guantanamo. Is the U.S. underestimating the enemy and not paying sufficient attention to al-Qaida again? Or are the war in Iraq and the grandiose scheme to democratize and reshape the Middle East it represents distracting the administration from the pursuit of the perpetrators of 9/11?
The State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator, J. Cofer Black, testified last week before the House Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights. In his testimony, the 28-year veteran of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations listed “some important successes against the al-Qaida organization” resulting from the coordination of U.S. efforts with those of its allies. Al-Qaida had been deprived of “a vital safe haven” in Afghanistan, most of its known leadership had been decapitated, and it had been “separated from facilities central to its chem-bio and poisons development programs.”
But, according to Black, “a new cadre of leaders” and “relatively untested terrorists” has started to emerge. “Al-Qaida’s ideology is spreading well beyond the Middle East” and “has been picked up by a number of Islamic extremist movements which exist around the globe.” Black also said that “Some groups have gravitated to al-Qaida in recent years, where before such linkages did not exist” — something that “greatly complicates our task in stamping out al-Qaida”.
Iraq was described by the State Department’s senior counterterrorism official as the emerging “focal point for the foreign jihadist fighters.” According to Black’s testimony, “Jihadists view Iraq as a new training ground to build their extremist credentials and hone the skills of the terrorist.” In short, the war in Afghanistan struck a severe blow to terrorism, but the war in Iraq may have resuscitated it. The U.S. will prevail against terrorism eventually, but the problem is with us for the foreseeable future. The administration’s desire to proclaim “mission accomplished” too quickly might actually have prolonged the war against terrorism.
Much has been said by U.S. politicians and analysts about how the war against al-Qaida in Afghanistan should have been finished before starting another war in Iraq. But the conduct of the war in Afghanistan itself has been insufficiently scrutinized. The decision to commit fewer troops to the Afghan war and “outsourcing” the hunt on the ground for al-Qaida to the Northern Alliance and Pakistan probably enabled al-Qaida operatives to disperse instead of waiting to be destroyed by U.S. bombardment from the air. The only reason the U.S. feels it has destroyed 70 percent of known al-Qaida leaders is that its knowledge of al-Qaida operatives was limited to begin with. Less-known veterans of the anti-Soviet jihad started slipping out of Afghanistan soon after the U.S. started bombing Afghanistan on Oct. 7, 2001. Pakistan did not deploy significant numbers of troops along its border with Afghanistan until Dec. 7, giving al-Qaida trainers almost two months to spread out. These individuals have most likely served as midwives of the baby al-Qaidas the U.S. now confronts from Morocco to Indonesia.
The core assumption of the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan was that terrorists cannot operate without state sponsorship. Once the Taliban regime in Afghanistan had been dislodged and al-Qaida’s safe haven had been destroyed, Osama bin Laden’s organization was expected to wither away or at least decline in significance as a source of threat. There was little contingency planning for al-Qaida’s ability to evolve in new ways, operating without state sponsorship in remote parts of insufficiently governed countries. It is true that al-Qaida no longer has the elaborate training camps it had while the Taliban ruled Afghanistan. But these camps were partly needed to train soldiers for conventional war in defense of Taliban control of Afghan cities. With no cities to protect, al-Qaida no longer needs conventional military training. Suicide bombers can be easily trained in the caves of south and eastern Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan, the jungles of Mindanao in southern Philippines and in basements of homes in the Sunni triangle in Iraq.
Ideological motivation for young men to join its ranks is now more important to al-Qaida than a state sponsor. That motivation has been provided by the haste to war in Iraq. Officials in several Muslim countries have noted a rise in recruitment to extremist groups, and even U.S. officials (including Black) acknowledge that “there are literally thousands of jihadists around the world.” These extremists have added anti-Americanism to their causes, which in the past involved only local separatist wars in remote parts of the world such as Chechnya and Kashmir.
While Osama bin Laden remains at large in Afghanistan or its border region with Pakistan, far more troops and resources have been committed to Iraq than to Afghanistan. There are only 13,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, compared with 150,000 in Iraq. Fifty countries promised a total of $8.2 billion in aid to Afghanistan at a donor’s conference in Berlin last week after President Hamid Karzai warned that his country could slip back into being “a haven for drugs and terrorism.”
The U.S. has promised to double its aid to Afghanistan, raising it to $2.2 billion over the next two years, but that is a drop in the bucket in comparison with U.S. spending in Iraq. Afghanistan has massively resumed harvesting opium and now accounts for 77 percent of global opium production according to the last annual report of the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime. Twenty-eight out of 32 provinces in Afghanistan now produce the drug crop, up from 18 provinces in 1999. Drug revenues, estimated at $2.3 billion annually (obviously more than U.S. aid commitments), now finance local warlords and terrorists, including some al-Qaida affiliates and the resurgent Taliban.
The U.S. and its allies have frozen $130 million in terrorist assets worldwide since 9/11, but that figure pales against the readily available drug money that can continue to finance terrorism for years. If terrorist recruitment is up, al-Qaida has morphed into something different but equally deadly, and terrorist financing continues to increase, victory in the war against terrorism is far from imminent.
Husain Haqqani is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. He previously served as an advisor to former Pakistani Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif and as Pakistan's ambassador to Sri Lanka. More Husain Haqqani.
Memorial Day’s lessons in amnesia
If nothing else, the holiday allows us to reflect on our commitment to forgetting bloody conflicts
(Credit: Carly Rose Hennigan via Shutterstock) It’s the saddest reading around: the little announcements that dribble out of the Pentagon every day or two — those terse, relatively uninformative death notices: rank; name; age; small town, suburb, or second-level city of origin; means of death (“small arms fire,” “improvised explosive device,” “the result of gunshot wounds inflicted by an individual wearing an Afghan National Army uniform,” or sometimes something vaguer like “while conducting combat operations,” “supporting Operation Enduring Freedom,” or simply no explanation at all); and the unit the dead soldier belonged to. They are seldom 100 words, even with the usual opening line: “The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Enduring Freedom.” Sometimes they include more than one death.
Continue Reading CloseTom Engelhardt, co-founder of the American Empire Project, runs the Nation Institute's TomDispatch.com. His latest book, "The United States of Fear" (Haymarket Books), has just been published. More Tom Engelhardt.
Where the wounded are
Wars don't just cause casualties among soldiers, they drain medical staff. I traveled to see the costs firsthand
A soldier is prepared for an operation at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. (Credit: Reuters/Kai Pfaffenbach) The weather’s getting warmer in Afghanistan and the war there is heating up again. That means – as it has meant every year for more than a decade — that the pace will quicken at the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. More casualties will be brought to this largest American military hospital outside the United States. The Critical Care Air Transport teams and their C-17 Globemasters will fly in from “downrange,” as they call the Afghan battleground, and the injured will be brought by ambulance bus from nearby Ramstein Air Force Base to the hospital front door.
Continue Reading CloseMichael Winship is senior writing fellow at Demos and a senior writer of the new series, Moyers & Company, airing on public television. More Michael Winship.
NATO invites Pakistan to summit
A sign that Islamabad is ready to reopen its western border to NATO troops on their way to Afghanistan
Oil tankers, which were used to transport NATO fuel supplies to Afghanistan, are parked at a compound in Karachi, Pakistan, Tuesday, May 15, 2012. NATO on Tuesday invited Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to the alliance's summit in Chicago, after signs that the country could be moving to reopen its Afghan border to NATO military supplies. (AP Photo/Shakil Adil)(Credit: AP) ISLAMABAD (AP) — NATO on Tuesday invited Pakistan’s president to the upcoming Chicago summit on Afghanistan, the strongest sign yet that Islamabad is ready to reopen its western border to U.S. and NATO military supplies heading to the war in the neighboring country.
Pakistan blocked the routes in November after American airstrikes killed 24 of its troops on the Afghan border. The attack sent ties between Washington and Islamabad to new lows, threatening regional cooperation needed for negotiating an end to the Afghan war.
Continue Reading CloseAfghanistan, I can’t quit you
My mom pushed me to join the Marines. Now that she's gone, I'm still drawn to war zones
A child flies a kite in Kabul on Tuesday Mar. 27, 2012. (Credit: Geoffrey Ingersoll) The heat. That’s what I remember most. Shimmery and bright. Blinding. Stifling. Heeee-eeaat.
The kind that’s not just on you, wrapped around you, but balled up and pulsing inside you — a desert blanket with teeth. It’s a type of heat that makes your skin cry and your eyeballs sweat, even in the shade; heat like a predator you can’t run away from.
I notice it right as I get off the plane — not just the degrees but also the dust. Dust you can smell, kicked up by a thousand years of struggle. In a region this old, I’m sure each breath carries a dose of unintended history: Inhale, Alexander the Great; exhale, the Ottoman Empire; inhale, the USSR; exhale, the Taliban.
Continue Reading CloseGeoffrey Ingersoll is a freelance journalist, documentarian, writer, photographer, and veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom. He is the recipient of the Sam Stavisky Award for Combat Reporting. More Geoffrey Ingersoll.
What Obama didn’t mention in Kabul
Just outside the Afghan capital, the Taliban is in control and preparing for a wider war
President Barack Obama addresses troops at Bagram Air Field, Afghanistan, Wednesday, May 2, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)(Credit: AP) MAHMUD RAQI, Afghanistan — The office of Kapisa’s governor sits high on a hilltop overlooking the provincial capital, Mahmud Raqi. It has a beautiful view of the river below and the mountains, trees and fields that stretch into the distance.
Beneath the tranquil surface, however, lies a grim truth. Just outside town roadside bombs are planted to target NATO convoys.
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