George W. Bush

They knew how to win. Does John Kerry?

The Bush machine is running one of the dirtiest -- and most effective -- campaigns in modern history. The Democrats need to get back in the fight.

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They knew how to win. Does John Kerry?

Back before the Watergate break-in, Republican operatives had a name for their unique brand of below-the-belt campaign attacks: “rat fucking.” Part character assassination, part collegiate pranks, the dirty tricks — conducted in utmost secrecy — were designed to throw Democrats off balance, create confusion, and tarnish reputations. Three decades later these attacks have been perfected. Except now they’re practiced out in the open for everyone, including the compliant media, to witness.

The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth became the latest multimedia incarnation. Launching the most bitter, and perhaps most deliberately misleading Republican-backed campaign attack since the racist Willie Horton ad of 1988, the group, bankrolled by a wealthy Bush donor, aired hollow, secondhand allegations that John Kerry lied about his actions in Vietnam that won five military medals. Not one charge about Kerry’s medals has withstood the slightest scrutiny, but thanks to the inaction of the national press corps, which again appeared in awe of the mighty Republican attack machine and its conservative media echo chamber, the Swift Boat’s dirty trick succeeded in disrupting the presidential campaign for several weeks this summer.

Instead of quickly pointing out that Kerry’s Vietnam accusers were factually challenged and that the coauthors of the anti-Kerry book “Unfit for Command” had severe credibility problems, too many mainstream reporters, editors and producers, taking their cue from Republicans, agreed to abandon serious campaign coverage for weeks in order to focus, yet again, on a so-called character flaw of the Democratic candidate. By the time the Washington Post, New York Times and Los Angeles Times did deploy reporters to knock down the Swift Boat Vets’ rickety charges, they’d taken on a life of their own in the anti-Kerry netherworld of talk radio, right-wing bloggers and Fox News.

The Republicans’ brash maneuver was “highly reminiscent of Nixonian politics,” says John Dean, who served as Nixon’s legal counsel during the Watergate coverup. He notes that 33 years ago John O’Neill, coauthor of “Unfit for Command,” was recruited into politics by one of Nixon’s top dirty tricksters, Chuck Colson.

“We’ve come full circle since Watergate and dirty tricks,” Dean says. “Although today they’re much more nasty.”

The nasty tricks have some Kerry supporters frustrated by the Democrats’ inability to hit back hard — and to take control of the news cycle by doing so. It hasn’t always been this way. Two generations ago a Massachussetts Democrat, John F. Kennedy, beat the dirty-tricks politics of Richard Nixon by playing hardball himself. And in 1992, Bill Clinton defeated a nasty Bush campaign that had eviscerated Michael Dukakis four years earlier by running a tough campaign war room and aggressively fighting the Bush attempts at smears. So far the Kerry campaign hasn’t been able to master the same instinct for the jugular.

“The response to the Swift Boat controversy was not at a level it should have been,” says Paul Alexander, director of “Brothers in Arms,” a new documentary about Kerry’s Vietnam days. “The question should be, what about Bush’s military record? That’s the response. Not that there were 12 bullet holes on the side of Kerry’s boat in Vietnam. The only way to beat Karl Rove and that level of viciousness is to hit back harder. If Democrats don’t understand that … well then, you can finish that sentence.”

Frustration also simmers around the press, and the double standard it seems to have adopted toward the candidates. “Bush has run the most issueless, negative campaign in modern politics,” notes Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network. “Yet nothing is written about the fact that a sitting president is offering no agenda for his second term. He should be getting fucking skewered in the press for the kind of campaign he’s running, but there’s nothing. Republicans are held to a different standard.”

Nowhere has that that double standard been more apparent than when contrasting the way the media have covered the two parties’ conventions. Compare the coverage of Bush’s colossal blunder on Monday — telling NBC’s Matt Lauer that he didn’t think the war on terror was winnable — with Teresa Heinz Kerry’s trivial “shove it” remark during the Democratic Convention in Boston last month. So far, Bush’s gaffe has garnered far less coverage than Heinz Kerry’s.

Defining the opponent has always been paramount in campaigns. As Lyndon Johnson once coached candidates, call the other guy an SOB and force him to hold a press conference to deny it. But whereas occasional attacks once punctuated campaigns, today’s modern Republican run for the White House has evolved into nothing but attacks. The variety this year has ranged from the subtle (taking a word or phrase from a Kerry speech out of context to mock the candidate) to the sledgehammer (Swift Boat Veterans for Truth). Never have they been more important, though. Because with a presidential résumé that features a quagmire abroad in Iraq that has cost nearly 1,000 American lives, a net loss of more than 1 million jobs at home, and a job approval struggling to reach 50 percent, defining Kerry and putting him on the defensive may be the only way Bush can salvage a second term.

“Republicans have one strategic imperative, and that is to make Americans more afraid of John Kerry than they are of four more years of George Bush,” says Mike Feldman, a former advisor to Vice President Al Gore.

Over the years hardball-loving Republicans have done a masterful job of painting their opponents with a damning brush, the way the elder Bush easily wiped out a double-digit lead over Dukakis in 1988 by portraying the Massachusetts governor as a weak, out-of-the-mainstream liberal. In 2000, with the help of the press, they turned Gore into a duplicitous exaggerator.

Republicans enjoy an unmatched electronic and digital infrastructure to disseminate their attacks, says Mark Halperin, political director for ABC News. “The advantage the Republicans have is reaching a lot of people through Drudge and Fox News and Rush Limbaugh and well-organized surrogates who are willing to swarm the media with the same message over and over to drive the agenda, with what political professionals would call admirable shamelessness. Democrats do not have the same echo-chamber outlets for an as easy, or as unfiltered, crack at voters.”

“The Republican capacity to create propaganda is much more developed and refined than ours,” Rosenberg says. “Their infrastructure is just massive.” Last spring the Bush-Cheney team launched a $90 million negative ad campaign, the largest TV attack blitz in presidential history. They hoped the onslaught would effectively knock Kerry out of the White House race before it began in earnest. Yet by late August, Kerry held a slight lead in most of the major polls.

Republicans argue that without that avalanche of attacks ads, Kerry might have built up an even larger lead over the summer. And there is some polling data to support that notion. In August, pollster John Zogby’s survey of voters found 47 percent chose Kerry, while 43 chose Bush. Asked separately if Bush deserved a second term, just 43 percent said yes; 53 percent said no. “Those two measurements suggest negative ads are possibly working,” Zogby notes, because “only 47 percent are supporting Kerry” even though 53 percent don’t think Bush deserves reelection.

That’s one reason some Kerry supporters remain anxious about the potential power of the Republican attack machine. “I’d give Republicans an A” in 2004, says one prominent Democratic strategist. “The Bush campaign is more adept than the Kerry campaign at playing the game. The game is, the press only covers four things in a campaign: polls, scandal, mistakes and attacks. And the only one of those you can control are attacks.”

Many Democrats wonder why their party has been so slow to go on the attack. When MoveOn.org tried to counter the Swift Boat smear with a hard-hitting ad pointing to questions about Bush’s own Vietnam-era military service — he’s been unable to document his whereabouts for the last year of his stint in the Texas Air National Guard — Kerry denounced the ad. When Bush refused to do the same with the Swfit Boat ad, Kerry was left alone on the high ground taking fire from his Vietnam critics.

More recently, a video surfaced capturing the former lieutenant governor of Texas admitting to being “ashamed” of his role in getting Bush a safe stateside spot in the National Guard during the height of the Vietnam War. But without Democrat surrogates actively pushing the story to the press, it barely made a media ripple, as most news outlets looked right past the story.

“The Barnes story collided with the mainstream media,” says one Democratic strategist. “It didn’t fall within their narrative” surrounding Kerry’s service. There are indications that Barnes, who has been reticent in the past to discuss his dealings with Bush, may soon have more to say about the topic, which could force the press to cover the story more closely.

For attacks to take hold and sway crucial swing voters, Republican talking points have to spread beyond the conservative media’s Fox News and New York Post echo chamber. Republicans need the help of the mainstream press corps to reiterate their attacks and create a negative narrative that plagues the Democratic candidate. The 2000 campaign proved to be the model as Republicans, with help from an often lazy and dishonest press corps, turned Gore, who for years enjoyed a public image of an overeager Boy Scout, into a liar who’d say anything to get elected. It was the press that gleefully amplified Republican distortions about Gore’s exaggerations, creating urban myths that Gore had bragged about inventing the Internet, being the inspiration for “Love Story,” or discovering the toxic-waste disaster at Love Canal. (To this day, the New York Post still prints that GOP spin as fact.)

“A lot of reporters were charmed by Bush in 2000 and a lot of reporters disdained Al Gore,” says CNN’s Tucker Carlson. “I will never forget traveling with the Gore campaign with a well-known liberal correspondent who exhibited such profound personal contempt for Gore, it just blew me away. And the press coverage totally hurt Gore. They did not cut him a break.”

Alexander, the documentary maker, says not much has changed in four years: “I’ve been on the press plane and I’ve heard what the national press corps says about John Kerry. They don’t like him. It’s reminiscent of the Gore campaign.”

Indeed, the Republican attack blueprint looks an awful like its winning 2000 strategy: Spend months raising doubts about the Democrat’s character and hope the storyline explodes in the fall, the way it engulfed Gore following the presidential debates when he misstated some minor facts and the press pounced, announcing that his performance fit a troubling pattern of embellishments. The problem for Republican attack generals hoping to refight the last war is that the dynamics of 2004 are completely different from those of 2000, which saw a campaign set against the backdrop of peace and prosperity.

“In 2000 there were no major issues driving the election, so the softer stuff mattered more, like which candidate would you rather have a beer with,” says former Gore advisor Feldman, referring to the pundit shorthand that dominated the 2000 campaign analysis: which candidate was more likable? “That’s not where we are in 2004. The issues are war and peace, America’s role in the world, and the future of the economy.”

Tearing Kerry down remains the Republicans’ single best option, and why Swift Boat Veterans for Truth proved so vital. And why the Kerry campaign’s early hesitancy in dealing with the charges proved so costly. “I was surprised the Kerry people didn’t move faster on it,” Dean says. “They kept waiting for somebody else to knock this down.” If the Kerry campaign thought the press would do its job and debunk such an obviously bogus story, it was sadly mistaken.

Coming during the slow news days of August, and playing off raw emotions as well as wild accusations, the Swift Boat story was tailor-made for the 24-hour news channels, which long ago grew tired of providing serious coverage of the war in Iraq. “Cable TV is like the creature in ‘The Predator,’” says the Los Angeles Times’ Ronald Brownstein. “It’s drawn to heat and conflict. It looks for things with the most edge to it.”

Yet at the same time, the press seemed to do its best to gloss over any unsightly edges around the veterans criticizing Kerry in order to sustain their believability. For instance, “Unfit for Command” coauthor O’Neill insisted from the beginning he was acting independently, telling CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, “I’ve had no serious involvement in politics of any kind in over 32 years.” Truth is, over the last 14 years O’Neill made $15,000 worth of political contributions, all if it to Republican candidates and organizations.

Prior to writing “Unfit for Command,” O’Neill’s coauthor, Jerome Corsi, often posted radical commentaries on the right-wing Web site FreeRepublic.com, where he compared Gore and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to Islamic terrorists, and labeled Kerry as “anti-Christian, anti-American” and his supporters as “communists.” (What are the odds that an anti-Bush book coauthored by someone who spouted off online making fanatical slurs comparing Bush to a terrorist and his supporters to Nazis would ever be taken seriously by CNN?)

Both O’Neill’s blatant misinformation and Corsi’s hateful rhetoric should have been red flags prompting the press to use extreme caution in addressing the Swift Boat charges or giving the Kerry critics an extraordinary amount of free media exposure. Other hoaxlike examples abounded:

  • In 1968, Grant Hibbard, a lieutenant commander in Vietnam during Kerry’s tour, described Kerry as “one of the top few in his willingness to seek and accept responsibility.” Today he insists Kerry lied about his war record.
  • In 1969, Rear Adm. Roy Hoffmann congratulated Kerry on the daring Swift boat attack he led, calling it a “shining example of completely overwhelming the enemy.” Today he insists Kerry lied about his actions in Vietnam.
  • Another highly critical Vietnam vet, Capt. George Elliot, also flip-flopped in public.
  • Larry Thurlow insisted Kerry lied about the circumstances surrounding his Bronze Star, that Kerry was not under fire. Yet according to Thurlows own military records, which recorded the event in question, “enemy small arms and automatic weapons fire” were directed at “all units” of the five-boat flotilla, including Kerry’s.
  • Trying to explain away the discrepancy of the official records that support Kerry’s version of the events that led to his medals, Swift Boat Veterans claimed Kerry exaggerated the facts when filling out the after-action reports. Even though one key document was initialed “KJW,” Swift Boat Veterans’ O’Neill claimed the initials identified it as having been written by Kerry. Of course, Kerry’s initials are “JFK.”
  • In one Swift Boat attack ad, Dr. Louis Letson looked into the camera and declared, “I know John Kerry is lying about his first Purple Heart because I treated him for that injury.” Overlooking the obvious question of why, 35 years after the fact, Letson would remember treating what he claims to have been Kerry’s minor flesh wound, is a more pressing point: If Letson treated Kerry, then why isnt he listed as the medic in the official records?
  • In June, Vietnam vet Paul Runyon, who served with Kerry on the chaotic night he took shrapnel in his arm and won his first Purple Heart, got a call from a private investigator, asking for a statement about the incident. Runyon, who calls Kerry “one helluva sailor,” recounted the facts, only to have the private eye, hired by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, rewrite his account in a skewed way to tar Kerry. “He made it sound like a trivial operation, like it was a leisurely midnight run. It was far from it,” says Runyon, who in June had never heard of the anti-Kerry activist group.
  • Al French, the first person to appear in the infamous Swift Boat ad, announced: “I served with John Kerry. He is lying about his record.” French later conceded he had no personal knowledge of Kerry’s activities and relied on secondhand accounts to make his extraordinary on-screen accusation. Worse, French, a lawyer, signed an affidavit for the Swift Boat group declaring, “I do hereby swear, that all facts and statements contained in this affidavit are true and correct and within my personal knowledge and belief.” (Emphasis added.)
  • The White House insisted it had no ties to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, yet the group’s single largest financial donation came from Republican benefactor and Karl Rove friend Robert Perry. Additionally, one of the Swift Boat Vets who appeared in a damning anti-Kerry ad served on the Bush campaign’s veterans’ advisory committee, while one of the Bush-Cheney campaign attorneys, Benjamin Ginsberg, also counseled the Swift Boat group. (Ginsberg resigned from the campaign last week.)

    Even when the press took the time to dissect the Swift Boat charges, and found them lacking in factual basis, reporters still treated the accusers, and the partisan attack machine behind it, with undue care. For instance, in a detailed Aug. 17 report, the Los Angeles Times noted three key findings: that contemporaneous military documents support Kerry’s — and the Navy’s — version of the events surrounding his medals, that the men who actually served with Kerry on his Swift boat strenuously support Kerry’s claim, and that some of the Swift Boat critics have been caught changing their stories and giving conflicting accounts. Yet the paper came to a timid conclusion: “What actually happened … 35 years ago along the remote southern coast of Vietnam remains murky,” suggesting the controversy is an impossible-to-solve he said/he said dispute.

    Some of the weakest coverage was posted by the newsweeklies. The Aug. 30 editions of both Time and Newsweek offered the kind of timid, on-the-one-handism brand of journalism that defined the Swift Boat coverage. Newsweek announced, “An examination of one key incident — Kerry’s rescue of a comrade — tends to support Kerry’s version of events, though questions remain.” It then promptly failed to raise a single serious question about that rescue.

    In Time, the magazine offered up a one-page scorecard, “Kerry in Combat: Setting the Record Straight.” In each account of Kerry’s medals, the magazine accurately reported how the Swift Boat charges failed to hold up under any sort of factual scrutiny. Yet Time restrained itself from coming to the obvious conclusion about the validity of the controversy. What could account for such a timorous, detached, you-figure-it-out brand of reporting?

    “It used to be we as the press would adjudicate the facts of the battle,” says Scott Shepherd, a political correspondent for the Cox newspaper chain who is covering his fifth presidential election. “We don’t do that anymore. Now we present attacks. That’s troublesome to me. We’ve gotten the idea if we say something is ‘fact,’ then somehow we’re biased,” he says, referring to the constant charge on the part of conservatives that the press shows a liberal bias. “The attacks have worked. People are intimidated.”

    A Dallas Observer headline was typical of the shoulder-shrugging quality of the Swift Boat coverage: “A group of veterans says John Kerry stretches the truth about his Vietnam service. Whom can you believe? Who knows?” USA Today, ignoring the official Navy records, threw up its hands and announced, “A clear picture of what John Kerry did or did not do in Vietnam 35 years ago may never emerge.” Early on in the controversy, ABC’s “Nightline” reported: “The Kerry campaign calls the charges wrong, offensive and politically motivated. And points to naval records that seemingly contradict the charges.” (Emphasis added.)

    Seemingly? A more accurate phrasing would have been that Navy records “completely” or “thoroughly” contradict the Swift Boat Veterans charges that emerged 35 years after the fact. Just this week, a CNN scrawl across the bottom of the screen read, “Several Vietnam veterans are backing Kerry’s version of events.” Again, a more factual phrasing would have been “Navy records completely back Kerry’s version of events.” But that would have meant undermining cable news’ hottest story of the summer.

    Even when faced with bold-faced Swift Boat Veterans contradictions, the press rarely blinked. In an Aug. 25 dispatch, the Associated Press revealed that in 1971 O’Neill met with President Nixon and told him, “I was in Cambodia, sir. I worked along the border,” a conversation captured on the White House’s secret taping system. Asked about the quote, which completely contradicts O’Neills “Unfit for Command” claim that any soldier, including Kerry, who entered Cambodia would have been court-martialed, O’Neill simply told the AP he never went to Cambodia. The AP then failed to ask the obvious follow-up: What part of “I was in Cambodia” did O’Neill not understand?

    It wasn’t until Aug. 19, nearly two weeks after the controversy had been festering in the press, that the New York Times laid out the facts, stating in no uncertain terms that the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth had close Republican ties, that their claims were not supported by the Navy’s record, and that many of them had publicly praised Kerry in the past.

    By then, though, the story, powered by Republican-friendly talk radio as well as cable news’ insatiable appetite for “character” conflicts, had taken on a life of its own. “For the Republican attack machine, part of the victory is simply confusing people,” says David Brock, author of “The Republican Noise Machine.” “If the Swift Boat story raised questions about Kerry’s record and character, then it was a success.”

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    Eric Boehlert, a former senior writer for Salon, is the author of "Lapdogs: How the Press Rolled Over for Bush."

    Guess who’s coming to dinner?

    George and Laura Bush dine with the Obamas

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    Judy Gold

    Emmy Award-winning actress and comedian Judy Gold is best known as the star of her two critically acclaimed off-Broadway shows, "The Judy Show - My Life As A Sitcom," and "25 Questions For A Jewish Mother." Judy has had her own comedy specials on HBO, Comedy Central and Logo. She appears regularly on Tru TV's World"s Dumbest. Check out www.JudyGold.com and follow her on Twitter at @JewdyGold.

    Using Bush’s playbook

    "Karl Rove politics" aren't quite dead: Obama's strategy in 2012 will mirror W's in 2004

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    Using Bush's playbookGeorge W. Bush and Barack Obama (Credit: Reuters/Larry Downing)

    Barack Obama’s presidency was born from nothing so much as his repudiation of George W. Bush’s administration — its policies and politics, its style and tone. One of Obama’s most effective 2008 stump speech refrains was his promise to end the era of “Scooter Libby justice, ‘Brownie’ incompetence and Karl Rove politics.”

    But the political dynamics for winning a second presidential term often differ markedly from winning the first. So don’t be surprised by many eerie parallels between Obama’s 2012 reelection bid and Bush’s 2004 campaign. The president may not rely upon “Karl Rove politics” in the strictest sense, and nobody would confuse David Axelrod with Rove. But Obama’s reelection route and rhetoric may bear more than a few Rovian hallmarks.

    Now that Mitt Romney has won the Republican nomination, two key features prevail over the 2012 campaign — and both were also plainly evident in 2004. First, the incumbent president’s reelection fortunes are far from certain; and, second, the incumbent faces a decent but nevertheless weak challenger who is further hampered by internal problems within his party’s coalition.

    Because incumbents can’t run for reelection promising “change,” and because “hope” during a lingering recession was also off the menu, the Obama campaign’s 2012 theme of  “forward” — a word that often follows “plow,” mind you — was the best available alternative. That said, and substituting the economy for terrorism, Obama is implicitly if not explicitly advancing the same theme Bush did in 2004: America suffered a tough blow, but the situation could have been worse and, more to the point, under my stewardship the nation is steadily regaining its footing.

    This counterfactual campaign theme — vote for me not because of what happened, but what might have but didn’t — is a common thread for Bush and Obama. It’s not an uplifting message, but it sufficed in 2004 and Obama is counting on it working again in 2012.

    Politics 101 further dictates that when an incumbent’s reelection is in doubt, he must go negative against the challenger. Obama political operatives in the White House and at the Democratic National Committee long ago made it abundantly clear they were willing to do just that. Team Obama may not go negative against Romney to the degree the Bush camp did against John Kerry in 2004. (By mid-summer 2004, 75 percent of Bush’s TV ads were negative attacks on Kerry.) But don’t be surprised if attacks on Romney’s record and even character are plentiful, harsh and relentless. In 2008, America saw candidate Obama’s toothy grin; four years later, expect to see President Obama’s fangs.

    Expect the Obama camp to emphasize two major critiques of Romney: that he is a flip-flopper willing to say anything or reverse any position to win; and that he is an economic royalist whose personal and public life suggest a person incapable of understanding the lives and struggles of average Americans. Again — note the unusual parallels with 2004.

    Although Romney is a Republican former governor and Kerry was at the time his state’s Democratic junior U.S. senator, the two Massachusetts pols make for similar targets. Each man is an extraordinarily rich preppie and Ivy Leaguer. Each represents the liberal wing of his respective party. Each has shown a propensity for ruining an otherwise valid point with sloppy, backfiring language. And each has a reputation for lacking political spine.

    The flip-flop frame is candidate character assassination of the first order. Like the lone negative number in a string of multiplied positives, the critique that nobody can trust any statement or claim made by a politician has the potential to negate every accomplishment or promise. If it sticks, it can be fatal, as Kerry learned in 2004.

    Obama and the Democratic National Committee know their electoral history and, sure enough, last November — a year before the election and two full months before a single Iowan had caucused — the DNC released a four-minute “Mitt vs. Mitt” ad and its accompanying website with the damning tag line, “the story of two men trapped in one body.” The site is a brilliant homage to the Bush campaign’s 2004 windsurfer attack ad and the devastating, 11-minute ad the Republican National Committee produced chronicling Kerry’s “evolution” on Iraq.

    And then there is what might be called “the Willard factor”: Romney as Richy Rich, the Monopoly Guy with the Bain Capital background and the Swiss bank account. His bio would be political gold to Romney’s opponent any election cycle, but it’s gold-plated platinum in the first full presidential campaign following the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression, the rise of the Occupy Wall Street movement, and the long overdue national debate over income inequality.

    Again, the wealth-personified line of attack mirrors the out-of-touch, Martha’s Vineyard yoke the Bush team put around Kerry’s neck in 2004. Right on cue, in the first public event of his reelection campaign, last week Obama attacked Romney by name and invoked the economic disconnect card with relish. “He sincerely believes that if CEOs and wealthy investors like him make money the rest of us will automatically prosper as well,” said Obama of Romney, adding that “corporations aren’t people – -people are people.” (For the record, Kerry is actually wealthier than Romney, who would become one of the richest men ever to occupy the White House, should he win.)

    Obama will also try to shift the national debate toward areas of strength, as Bush did. Historically, this meant the same strategy, but with inverse implications for each party: The so-called mommy party Democrats would encourage voters to focus on more favorable kitchen-table economy issues — healthcare, jobs, education — and away from less favorable “daddy party” Republican issues surrounding foreign wars abroad and culture wars. Because Obama is net-positive in foreign policy approval and net-negative on the economy, rather than mirroring by inversion, Obama will try to duplicate Bush’s shift-in-emphasis in 2004. GOP complaints that Obama is politicizing the killing of Osama bin Laden reveal Republican fears that Obama is going to play the terrorism card in 2012 just like Bush did eight years ago.

    The 2004 parallels extend beyond message. Obama will be amply resourced and enjoy a field technology by virtue of his campaign’s state-of-the-art Web, donor, volunteer and social media innovations. Remember the Bush reelection campaign’s vaunted “72-hour” voter turnout model? That seems like an Edsel compared to the Ferrari the Obama team will be sporting this summer and fall. Among the perquisites modern presidential incumbents enjoy is the option to test-drive the best mobilization machines before anyone else.

    Finally, what most connects Obama 2012 to Bush 2004 is the stability of the electoral map itself. Only three states — two net to Bush — flipped from one party to the other between 2000 and 2004; only nine states flipped between 2004 and 2008. Split the difference and a good, back-of-the-napkin over-under for number of states likely to flip between 2008 and 2012 is six. And thus, like the lead sailboat during a windless race, Obama doesn’t need or want conditions to change much from 2008: He merely has to replicate the map that swept him into office, with the burden of figuring out how to shake up the Electoral College falling to Romney, just as it did for Kerry against Bush. Even Karl Rove’s mapping of the 2012 election concedes this reality.

    The 2008 election was memorable; to borrow the title of one best-selling chronicle, it was a “game changer.” But 2012 will not be. In many respects, it will be a game repeater, with Obama playing Bush to Romney’s Kerry of 2004. The president may be asking Americans to look “forward” in 2012, but the best preview of his reelection campaign can be found by looking backward eight years.

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    The Bushies are back

    Missed the neocons? Don't worry: Mitt Romney's getting the band together again

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    The Bushies are back (Credit: Reuters/Win McNamee)

    There was good reason for Republicans to cry foul over the Obama campaign’s advertisement highlighting the president’s killing of Osama bin Laden; the GOP has lost its decades-long edge on national security. According to a Washington Post poll, “By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans say the president’s handling of terrorism is a major reason to support rather than oppose his bid for reelection.”

    Republicans lost their popularity on security issues for one reason: George W. Bush’s foreign policy was a disaster. And yet, the party’s nominee, Mitt Romney, has assembled a foreign-policy team composed almost exclusively of individuals with the same war-always mentality and ideology that served Bush — and the United States — so poorly. In some cases, the exact same men responsible for Bush’s catastrophic national security policies are advising Romney. The former Massachusetts governor could have included some of the pragmatists and realists from the George H.W. Bush administration. Instead, a Romney presidency seems like it would be Bush 43 all over again.

    Richard Grenell, who served as United Nations spokesman under Bush, may be gone from the Romney campaign after an uproar over his sexuality, but there are plenty more former Bushies. First off, there are Romney’s “special advisors.” There’s Michael Chertoff, W.’s Homeland Security director. Chertoff oversaw DHS’s failures during Hurricane Katrina, and amassed unprecedented powers of secrecy. Next up is Eliot Cohen, counselor to the State Department for Bush’s last two years and on the Defense Policy Advisory Board for the president’s entire term. Cohen was an adamant supporter of the Iraq War and advised Bush directly on the issue. Or take Cofer Black, the man who infamously said to Bush in September 2011 about al-Qaida that “When we’re through with them they will have flies walking across their eyeballs.” Black went on to become chairman of Blackwater, where he resigned after the company illegally bribed Iraqi officials.

    Then there are the 13 “working groups” composed of equally worrisome individuals. The Middle East and North Africa Working Group is co-chaired by Bush’s Assistant Secretary of Defense Mary Beth Long, and Meghan O’Sullivan, Bush’s special assistant and deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan. The remaining co-chair is Walid Phares, who never worked for Bush but advised Lebanese warlords in the 1980s. Romney has reportedly promised Phares a top job in his administration, despite his virulently anti-Islamic views.

    All told, Romney lists 37 holdovers from the George W. Bush administration — the very same administration he and all other Republican candidates barely referenced during their many debates because it was so discredited and toxic, even to the Republican base.

    It didn’t have to be this way. There are, in fact, people in Republican circles who are sensible on international affairs. The Cato Institute, in particular, has experts that could dramatically change the direction of American foreign policy. Men like Justin Logan and Christopher Preble were prescient on Iraq and a host of other issues. Similarly, the Center for the National Interest (formerly the Nixon Center) has a host of solid scholars, including ones like Dimitri Simes and Geoffrey Kemp, who have valuable government experience in the Nixon and Reagan administrations, respectively, and a history of perceptive analysis. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, would have been another good pick.

    So why aren’t guys like this being tapped? Why is the GOP sticking with a discredited foreign-policy approach rather that looking to its own past for wiser counsel? “Most of the realists and pragmatists have simply been driven out of the Republican Party,” says Stephen Walt, who writes a blog at Foreign Policy and teaches at Harvard. “The neoconservatives have been driving the agenda since Bush was elected and they remain well-entrenched.”

    Another factor is that the Republican Party’s base remains strongly militaristic and reluctant to recognize limits on American power. Jon Huntsman’s failed presidential campaign illustrated that problem. The good news is that nobody seems to be calling for nation-building and occupying foreign countries in the mold of Iraq and Afghanistan. But that’s the only lesson that seems to have been learned from the last decade of foreign-policy debacles.

    Finally, it may just be that the United States has too much power to change course. While the Unites States has undoubtedly made disastrous decisions in the last decades, it is so powerful that it is largely insulated from the consequences of them. If Romney’s foreign-policy advisor list is anything to go by, a Romney administration would have to teach the U.S. all over again about the problems with trying to police the world. Prepare for Bush redux.

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    Jordan Michael Smith writes about U.S. foreign policy for Salon. He has written for the New York Times, Boston Globe and Washington Post.

    Bush aide blasts torture

    Philip Zelikow tried to warn Bush on interrogations. Now he's penned an authoritative article on how he was ignored

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    Bush aide blasts torture (Credit: Reuters/Jim Young)

    The Bush administration hasn’t heard the last from Philip Zelikow. After the rediscovery last week of his long lost 2006 anti-torture memo, Zelikow, a former State Department official, has written arguably the most damning article yet about U.S. government’s interrogation policies from 2001 to 2009. The article, called “Codes of Conduct for a Twilight War,” will be released in a forthcoming issue of the Houston Law Journal, and was obtained exclusively by Salon. Says Zelikow in an email: “I’m not aware of other accounts that combine historical, policy and legal approaches to” the subject of the Bush administration’s interrogation methods.

    Based on published histories and his firsthand observations, and adapted from a lecture delivered in November, the article calls the administration’s rationale for its use of torture — which he nonetheless insists only on calling “extreme interrogation” and “coercive methods” — “radical,” “an amazing contention,” “untenable and extreme,” “unsustainable,” “an unprecedented program of coolly calculated dehumanizing abuse and physical torment,” and, finally, simply a “mistake.” He concludes: “This was a collective failure of American public leadership, in which a number of officials and members of Congress (and staffers) of both parties played a part, endorsing a CIA program of physical coercion without any precedent in U.S. history.”  In fact, “The only defense against criminal prosecution would be that officials acted in good faith reliance on the advice of their government lawyers.”

    Part of what makes Zelikow’s analysis so damning and definitive is its judiciousness. The article is deeply empathetic of the uniquely fearful situation under which the Bush administration was initially operating. Zelikow calls the Sept. 11 attacks a “collective trauma” and a “shoc[k] to mass beliefs.” He notes that Bush and others spent time in burn units, morgues and with survivors of the attacks. One traumatic experienced often overlooked — overlooked because it appeared in Stephen Hayes’ stenographic biography of Dick Cheney — was that the vice-president’s daughter was (falsely, it turns out) told that her house with her children in it had tested positive for anthrax. Similarly, Cheney and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice were told that they and others had been exposed to an extremely lethal toxin in a particular area of the White House — and might soon die as a result. “The alarms did not stop and they too were not abstract … The pressure on Bush and his senior advisers was so direct because so much of the response had to be invented and improvised,” the article reads.

    An additional factor in the power of the article is Zelikow’s credibility and history. Before entering government, he was a civil rights lawyer in Texas battling the Ku Klux Klan and then a highly esteemed Harvard historian specializing in U.S. foreign policy — he co-authored one book with Rice. He then served on the National Security Council under President George H.W. Bush and directed the 9/11 Commission before becoming counselor to Rice at the State Department from 2005 to 2007. He currently volunteers part-time on the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board under President Obama.

    Such bipartisan, establishment credentials render the breakdown and conclusion of this article all the more damning. He believes that what should have been a political and moral question — should the United States torture captives? — became strictly a legal matter left up to government lawyers, few of whom had any experience with these issues, and who had to take the necessity of extreme measures as a given. “These lawyers then became secular priests, granting absolution to the supplicant policymakers,” Zelikow writes.

    The problems began when the Office of the Vice President and the CIA took central roles in policymaking. Cheney felt himself above the rest of the National Security Council, bypassing Rice and other traditional channels of national security policymaking. Ad-hoc decision-making and improvisation became “a habit of thought,” which seemed initially to pay off in the security of the nation, as well as in Bush’s political standing and self-confidence.

    With Cheney and CIA head George Tenet “the key entrepreneurs in setting codes of conduct for the War on Terror,” it was essentially left to their obsequious lawyers to decide, in secret, on the interrogation methods America should employ. Bush even told the Senate’s Intelligence Committee chairman that “the vice president should be your point of contact … [He] has the portfolio for intelligence activities.” Decisions were made to jettison international treaties. By December 2001, the CIA was already interested in reverse-engineering methods “heretofore used only to treat Americans to resist enemy torture.” When a senior al-Qaida member was captured in March 2002, the prototype for the administration’s torture policies was already developed. “So, for the first time in American history, leaders of the U.S. government carefully devised ways and means to torment enemy captives.”

    Zelikow notes that “None of the policy or moral issues connected with these choices appear to have been analyzed in any noticeable way.” Perhaps worst of all, no serious consideration was given to weighing the costs of benefits of the torture program, with reference to relevant historical precedents and/or examinations of the respective French, British and Israeli experiences in dealing with captured terrorists. “Bush and Rice should have insisted on this,” Zelikow writes.

    The 52-page article observes the successes of Obama’s counterterrorism policies after repudiating the use of torture. On the basis of the empirical evidence then, “[t]here is no evident correlations between intelligence success and the available of extreme interrogation methods,” no matter what Bush and Cheney claim. Finally, “The program’s costs — which include the high-level effort expended in order to establish, maintain, and defense the program — appear on the evidence so far to have well outweighed any unique value the program might have had as a method of counterterrorism intelligence collection.” This is apart from the damage to America’s international standing and corrosion of its traditional values.

    Zelikow concludes his analysis by arguing that, although the Obama administration has the right to wage war and use extralegal methods to defeat al-Qaida, its claim of that authority to defeat “associated forces” is unwarranted. “The U.S. government should publish and explain any overarching policy and legal documents that guide and confine the conduct of deadly operation against its foreign enemies … the executive branch of the U.S. government has a duty to articulate the scope of its warfare to the Congress and the public.” The Bush administration’s unprecedented elevation of torture to national policy may be history, but the job to get U.S. foreign policy in line with its constitutional and moral obligations is far from over.

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    Jordan Michael Smith writes about U.S. foreign policy for Salon. He has written for the New York Times, Boston Globe and Washington Post.

    Thomas Kinkade, the George W. Bush of art

    The rise and fall of Thomas Kinkade, the Painter of Light™ in a decade of bad faith

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    Thomas Kinkade, the George W. Bush of art

    News of Thomas Kinkade’s death arrived on the same day I received in the mail a vintage teacup on which I had spent a ridiculous amount of money. It has a cottage painted on it. Kinkade, whose work has long exerted a morbid fascination for me (to the concern of all my friends), specialized in cottages. So some part of me understands the appeal, I guess, but, damn: Those paintings make my corneas hurt. And yet, I could barely stop looking at them.

    Kinkade was only 54, and his family told the media that he died of “natural causes.” This comes after years of reports of drunken public misbehavior: cursing at people who tried to save him from falling off bar stools, heckling Siegfried & Roy, grabbing a woman’s breasts at a publicity event and, most memorably, urinating on a Winnie the Pooh statue at the Disneyland Hotel while proclaiming, “This one’s for you, Walt!” There were DUI arrests. Also, his manufacturing company declared bankruptcy two years ago, and former franchisees of the once-ubiquitous Thomas Kinkade Signature Galleries won settlements against him for fraud.

    That’s quite a fall for a man who frequently spoke of his Christian faith and family values when asked to comment on the mammoth success of his brand in the early 2000s. “When I got saved, God became my art agent,” Kinkade explained in a 2004 video. He went from a childhood in Placerville, Calif. (invariably characterized as “hard-scrabble”) to an apprenticeship selling his work in supermarket parking lots to his apotheosis as the nation’s “most profitable” artist, the Painter of Light™, and multimillionaire. He was profiled in the New Yorker by Susan Orlean.

    I first learned about the dark side of the Painter of Light™ — sorry, couldn’t resist that one — when I reviewed “his” novel, “Cape Light,” in 2002. The novel, first in a series, was produced much as his paintings are: by a semi-industrial process in which low-level apprentices embellish a prefab base provided by Kinkade. He wasn’t the only artist to work in this way; he wasn’t even the only novelist. To the best of my knowledge, his novels — heartwarming, fuzzily pious tales of small-town life — have been coming out ever since, one more facet of a lifestyle brand that, at its most ambitious, included an entire Thomas Kinkade-themed housing development.

    My review was just a goof intended to amuse Salon’s readers, but after it appeared, I began to receive emails from people who had sunk their life savings in Thomas Kinkade Signature Galleries (essentially, mall and shopping-district outlets for his prints) and been fleeced. I didn’t really understand how the financial architecture of Kinkade’s gallery empire worked, and I sure didn’t share their taste in wall art, but these people struck me as decent and sincere. They’d believed in Thomas Kinkade — not just in the man or the company, but in the ethos supposedly represented by his work, one in which (to quote Kinkade’s introduction to “Cape Light”) “people have the time to savor life’s simple pleasures” and lead “deep, satisfying lives.”

    My conversations with these victims made me uneasy. Was there some relationship between the franchisees’ naivete, perhaps even their willful self-delusion, and their terrible taste? Was it hopelessly snobby to wonder that? What about Kinkade himself? He seemed to be at best a hypocrite and at worst a crook. Was there a meaningful connection between his bad conscience and his bad art? German thinkers of the 1930s would have said so, and they had plenty of opportunity to observe bad fascist art up close. Hermann Broch maintained that someone who chooses to make kitsch is “ethically depraved, a criminal willing radical evil.” The novelist Milan Kundera believes kitsch to be the natural expression of totalitarianism. That’s a lot of moral weight to place on a bunch of garish cottage paintings, but Kinkade was always the first to present his work as a form of ideology.

    I felt compassion for the ripped-off gallery operators, and at the same time I was aware that quite a few of them had probably also fallen for the similarly sanctimonious, bogus folksiness of George W. Bush, thereby subjecting our nation to one of the worst presidents in its history. Kinkade and Bush struck me as of a piece, probably because they had both borrowed from Ronald Reagan in promising that we could get back to a better way of life that never existed in the first place. In nearly every encounter with the press, Kinkade delivered a diatribe against the art-world “establishment” that had shut him out. They were “elites” touting unfathomable, downer junk to hardworking people who needed uplift instead. Art snobs were the aesthetic counterparts of the so-called liberal elites, a group that surely included me.

    At the same time, I must admit that I, too, like a cottage. Granted, I like the stylized, art-deco kind painted on bone china, rather than the insanely detailed and phosphorescently lit specimens in Kinkade’s pictures. And I’m in little danger of equating my new teacup with a Brancusi just because it’s cheerier. Nevertheless, I suspect that my idea of what’s pleasing about a cottage isn’t too different from that of Kinkade’s fans: an aura of harmless coziness, of modest domestic beauty and comfort not too cut off from the past. It’s as if we’re speaking the same word, but in different languages.

    I suspect this is why Kinkade’s paintings have exerted their weird, hypnotic effect on me. They are so preposterous (especially the stream-side ones; he really needed to sit down with an architect and go over the basics of drainage), so awful. And yet I can still detect — beneath that cacophony of hollyhocks and cobblestones and snapdragons — the whisper of something intelligible. I’m pretty sure I know why the hordes of Kinkade collectors love his work, even if I don’t like it myself. Kinkade’s paintings are irredeemably false, like all kitsch, but through them you can just barely glimpse the honest desires they seek to exploit, sinking under the dreck.

    Kundera defined kitsch as “the absolute denial of shit,” meaning it offers an airbrushed, sterilized, sentimentalized view of the world. From that, it doesn’t necessarily follow that art wallows in shit, but art doesn’t exist for the primary purpose of denying it, either. Kitsch is, first and foremost, a lie; its very existence is founded on bad faith.

    Kinkade, like Bush, peddled a falsely simplified image of the world — one without mildew or flooded basements, for one thing — which, no surprise, turned out to be plastered over a whole lot of stinky stuff. The true believers, the ones who bought into these men the most during the 2000s, ended up paying some of the highest prices, from the Kinkade acolytes who invested in his gallery Ponzi scheme to the working-class red-staters who sent off their kids to die in a pointless war. Bad taste, harmless as it may seem, can end up costing you a lot.

    Further reading

    Los Angeles Times obituary for Thomas Kinkade

    Susan Orlean’s 2001 profile of Thomas Kinkade for the New Yorker

    A 2006 Los Angeles Times story documenting Kinkade’s business problems

    Salon’s Janelle Brown visits Hiddenbrooke, a Kinkade-theme housing development in Northern California

    Laura Miller reviews “Cape Light,” a novel by Thomas Kinkade and Katherine Spencer

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    Laura Miller

    Laura Miller is a senior writer for Salon. She is the author of "The Magician's Book: A Skeptic's Adventures in Narnia" and has a Web site, magiciansbook.com.

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