SALON

Tuesday, Oct 26, 2004 10:39 PM UTC

The clock is running out

Will voters come to their senses about Bush? If his job-approval ratings and the weak economy are any guide, that's likely.

By

Topics: 2004 Elections

The clock is running out

Here’s a final update on two matters this column has followed for nine months: President Bush’s approval ratings and the jobless economy.

On Bush’s approval, I’ve always argued that the voters are smart. They have rallied to Bush in times of emergency, but otherwise they’ve paid very little attention to anything he says or does. They simply come to their senses, sooner or later, as the reality about the man sets in. Here’s what I wrote last February:

“Measured by a number of different techniques … Bush’s monthly loss of approval appears to be a little less than 1.6 percentage points — every month, on average … We cannot say that the erosion will continue as Bush’s approval slips into “red” territory — below the 48 percent or so who supported him to begin with. Indeed, there is no evidence that Bush’s Republican base has eroded at all. What we can infer, reasonably, is that there is a strong tendency in the electorate to revert, over time, to the sharp and narrow division of the last election. Tick, tock.”

Averaging across the eight polls for which data are now available, I get an October reading of 48.33 percent approval for Bush. This is down exactly 1.6 percent from his September bump. The model presented back then was, in other words, right on target. You could have gone to sleep in February and woken up today, and you wouldn’t have missed a thing.

On the economy, a standard view is that incumbents win elections when the growth rate in the year preceding the election is better than 4 percent. On this test, how does Bush stand? We don’t know yet for sure. But we’ll get a clue on Friday when the third-quarter advance estimate, or “flash” GDP, appears.

Reputable forecasters now predict that the third quarter will come in looking good. But the reasons aren’t very reassuring. Upward revisions to monthly consumption and investment data back in July account for much of the improvement: Both household spending and business inventory accumulation in July were stronger than previously thought, partly because June’s numbers were revised downward, thus shifting growth from the second to the third quarter. More recently, Ford and General Motors have been up to old tricks — boosting car sales with big financing incentives in September, which won’t be sustained. Oh, and it turns out that the hurricanes in Florida helped growth, by spurring (among other things) sales of plywood.

If none of this seems like a big deal, that’s because it isn’t. But let’s suppose the flash GDP does come in at a 5 percent annual rate for the third quarter, as Briefing.com now predicts. What will that mean in terms of Bush’s 4 percent threshold? The answer is that real GDP growth from the third quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2004 will, in that case, have been 3.9 percent. That’s close — but no cigar.

And that’s it for my service as Salon’s economics correspondent until after the election. I’m hanging up my fair-and-balanced hat for a few days and going to Ohio, as a citizen, to help get out the vote.

See you in November.

James K. Galbraith

James K. Galbraith organized a conference on the “Crisis in the Eurozone” at the University of Texas at Austin on November 3-4. Papers and presentations can be found at http://tinyurl.com/3kut4k5, along with a video archive of the full meeting. More James K. Galbraith.

Next Article

You Might Also Like

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

Gripping photos: The people of the Turkey protests (slideshow)

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • The protests take on a festive element as police forces move out of the park and square. Wearing a gas mask, this young man dances to traditional Turkish music in front of Taksim Square’s Ataturk Monument.

  • In Gezi Park since March 31st, this protester, originally caught off-guard by the Government’s teargas and water cannons, went out and bought a Russian army mask from WWII, preparing for what was to come.

  • This rambunctious boy seems to be enjoying the chaos. After taking this picture he threw a stone at the already destroyed building in the background.

  • Forming a line, the police face off directly with protesters in Taksim Square. After a while, they retreated and there was a general cheer – a back-and-forth dance that has been common since the beginning of this protest.

  • An elderly woman in Gezi Park reads the news. The tent community occupying the park was violently destroyed on June 16th.

  • Many different groups had set up booths to promote their cause in Taksim Square and Gezi Park. Standing in front of one, this man waves his flag while posing with conviction.

  • Many home-remedies are used to minimize the effects of tear gas. This woman has put a milky solution on her face, removing her mask after the tear gas dissipated. Before sunrise, the police came again for another round of teargasing.

  • People capitalize on the uprising -- selling flags, beer, gas masks, sky lanterns and spray paint to name just a few of the popular items.

  • On Monday morning, June 11, the police execute a strong offensive. Many plain-clothed police officers, like the ones seen here, clash with protesters in the side streets away from the main stand-off in Taksim.

  • The authorities seem to be most aggressive in the night, pushing protesters away from the square and park. After being teargassed this young woman catches her breath with other protesters on Siraselviler Street.

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

More Related Stories

Comments

 0 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username ( settings | log out )

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: "We Are All Completely Beside Ourselves": Growing up primate

Recommendations