Ewen MacAskill

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Of 21 nations polled by the BBC, only people in the Philippines, Poland and India view Bush's reelection positively. And the world's dislike of the president is turning into a dislike of Americans generally.

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George W. Bush is being sworn in as president of the United States for a second term Thursday in a lavish Washington ceremony amid mounting international concern that his new administration will make the world a more dangerous place. A poll in 21 countries published Wednesday — reflecting opinion in Africa, Latin America, North America, Asia and Europe — showed that a clear majority have grave fears about the next four years.

Fifty-eight percent of the 22,000 who took part in the poll, commissioned by the BBC World Service, said they expected Bush to have a negative impact on peace and security, compared with only 26 percent who considered him a positive force. The survey also indicated for the first time that dislike of Bush is translating into a dislike of Americans in general.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in an interview with the Guardian, expressed hope that Bush’s second term would prove to be more consensual than the first. He said there had been an evolution in U.S. policy, witnessed by him in successive conversations with Bush. “Evolution comes from experience,” Blair said.

Blair said that as part of a learning process that began with the invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001, the U.S. administration had reached the conclusion that “in the end, we can take security and military measures against terrorism but … the best prospect of peaceful coexistence lies in the spread of democracy and human rights.” Asked if Bush had become a multilateralist, Blair said he could not speak for the president, but “it is significant, in my view, that he is coming to Europe as his first foreign visit.” Bush is due in Europe at the end of next month.

The inauguration is taking place under unprecedented security in Washington as luminaries from across the country converge on the capital. Bush spent the eve of the ceremony to mark the start of his second term shuttling between a series of events: from three candlelight dinners to thank his biggest campaign donors to a “Celebration of Freedom” fireworks concert.

He described the election in Afghanistan late last year and the elections in Iraq planned for next week as “landmark events in the history of liberty.” Bush also proclaimed his inauguration a “a sign of hope for freedom-loving people everywhere.”

Aware of the damage that has been done to America’s reputation by the war in Iraq and its approach to the Kyoto protocol on global warming, the nominee for secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, whose appointment was approved by a Senate committee yesterday, promised to try to repair relations with France, Germany and other countries bruised during the first term.

But Wednesdays poll pointed to the deep suspicion of Bush that exists across the world. It found that the bulk of people in 18 of the 21 countries surveyed had negative feelings about the U.S. president. Traditional U.S. allies in western Europe were among those expressing the most negative feelings.

In Britain, 64 percent of those polled said they disagreed with the proposition that the United States would have a mainly positive impact on the world. The figures were even higher in France (75 percent) and Germany (77 percent). Bush’s victory was viewed positively in only three of the 21 countries: the Philippines, Poland and India.

One of the organizers of the poll, Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said: “This is quite a grim picture for the U.S.” Another of the organizers, Doug Miller, president of the polling firm GlobeScan, said he had been monitoring trends since the beginning of 2003 and that the figure for those who disagreed that the United States was having a mainly positive impact on the world had risen from 46 percent then to 49 percent last year, and had now jumped to 58 percent.

“Our research makes very clear that the reelection of President Bush has further isolated America from the world,” he said. “It also supports the view of some Americans that unless his administration changes its approach to world affairs in its second term, it will continue to erode America’s good name, and hence its ability to effectively influence world affairs.”

Asked how Bush’s reelection had affected their feelings toward Americans, 72 percent of those polled in Turkey said it made them feel worse about Americans, as did 65 percent in France, 59 percent in Brazil and 56 percent in Germany.

There was also overwhelming opposition to sending troops to Iraq, even among close allies such as Britain. “Fully one in four British citizens say the Bush reelection has made them more opposed to sending troops to Iraq, resulting in a total of 63 percent now opposed,” Miller said.

The poll was conducted between Nov. 15 and Jan. 3 in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Lebanon, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the U.K.

A separate poll, for the Los Angeles Times, shows Americans are also polarized over the prospect of Bushs second term, including over the conduct of the war in Iraq. Bush’s job approval rating stands at 50 percent, with 47 percent disapproving. In recent times only Richard Nixon at the beginning of his second term in 1972 recorded poll ratings as poor.

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Expanding investigation

The GOP turns up the heat on the oil-for-food scandal, a move that could derail Kofi Annan's efforts to reform the U.N.

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United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan is fighting for his job in the face of an increasing campaign by Republican congressmen, who have launched a series of investigations into the Iraqi oil-for-food scandal.

Annan faces three separate congressional investigations into the oil-for-food program, and a U.N. Security Council source said a further four are pending.

George W. Bush’s Republican Party is hostile toward the U.N. in general but Annan in particular, especially after he last year declared that the war in Iraq was illegal.

Sen. Norm Coleman, the Republican senator whose committee Thursday published a report naming George Galloway, the British M.P. for the antiwar Respect Party, and Charles Pasqua, the former French minister, in connection with the oil-for-food scandal, has called on Annan to resign. Coleman also hinted that the United States could withhold its funding, which he said amounted to about 22 percent of the U.N.’s total budget.

Annan, who was badly undermined by revelations that his son Kojo was paid by a company that secured a lucrative U.N. contract for Iraq, is refusing to resign. He is due to retire in December 2006. If Annan does not resign before then, the United States will try to ensure that the next appointee, who is due to be chosen from Asia, will be in the American camp.

Coleman’s inquiry is being conducted by the Senate permanent subcommittee on investigations. Separate inquiries are being carried out by the House Committee on International Relations, led by the Republican Henry Hyde, and the House subcommittee on national security, emerging threats and international relations, headed by Christopher Shays, another Republican.

These come on top of an internal U.N. inquiry ordered last year by Annan and headed by Paul Volcker, who has already issued two interim reports and is due to publish his final report in the summer. A spokeswoman for Volcker said Thursday the timetable could slip and that a decision on a publication date was “not yet on the horizon.” The two interim reports by Volcker have been extremely damaging to Annan, criticizing his officials as well as Kojo.

The inquiry is into the program in which Saddam Hussein was allowed to sell limited quantities of oil in return for food between 1996 and 2003. Various companies and individuals are alleged to have benefited from illegal payments.

As long as only Volcker was involved, Annan could contain the row, and U.N. officials hoped publication of Volcker’s report would mark an end to the affair. But with Republican congressmen piling in, Annan faces month after month of rows and allegations.

U.N. officials admitted Thursday that a clash between the world organization and the U.S. Congress has put in jeopardy a program of reforms on which Annan has staked his reputation. Heads of government are due in New York in September to ratify the reform package, including expansion of the Security Council, which would amount to the biggest overhaul of the U.N. since its founding in 1945.

But relations between the U.N. and Congress have deteriorated sharply in the last week over the oil-for-food program, to the extent that a U.S. federal judge has been called upon to intervene.

One U.N. official admitted that Annan, who wanted the reforms to be his legacy, is being “distracted” by issue. The official said it is now possible that Annan will not achieve in September anything other than minimal changes, and that the grandiose plan for increasing the Security Council from 15 members to 25 will be shelved.

A U.N. official close to Annan acknowledged that the publication of Volker’s report will not end the controversy. “Yes, that is true. It isn’t over with Volcker,” the official said. He added that Annan had said the disclosures about the oil-for-food program had been embarrassing but that he was determined to press ahead. Asked at a recent press conference if he was considering resigning, Annan said: “Hell, no.”

The U.N. official said that if relations between the United States and the U.N. continue to deteriorate at the present speed, he fears Congress will once again impose a freeze on U.S. funding of the organization, as it did 15 years ago. The official said: “We are doing all we can to give them the information they need. We hope it will have a sensible ending. There were mistakes [in the oil-for-food program] but not gross corruption — just minor.”

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Breeding ground for suicide bombers

U.S. and Iraqi officials are alarmed by the increasing cooperation between foreign militants and domestic insurgents.

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The number of suicide attacks in Iraq has reached a record high, with more than 67 insurgents blowing themselves up in April alone. Figures from diplomatic and Iraqi security sources Wednesday show that of the 135 car bombings last month, which took hundreds of lives and inflicted thousands of injuries, more than half were suicide missions. The number of car bombings has doubled since March.

The level of suicide attacks has raised fears that American and Iraqi forces are losing the battle to prevent foreign fighters, prepared to die for the cause of defeating the U.S. occupation, from entering the country. Most suicide bombers are thought to come from outside Iraq, intelligence sources say, but they operate with local support. A Western diplomat said that for the first time since the fall of Saddam Hussein, suicide bombers account for most of the daily car bomb attacks. “There is an apparent free flow of suicide bombers into Iraq,” he said. A senior Iraqi official added: “Unless we can stop that flood, people will be afraid to gather in public together.”

The warnings followed another series of blasts across the country Wednesday that killed at least 71 people and wounded more than 100.

Since the new government led by Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari was announced on April 28, nearly 400 people have been killed and up to 1,000 wounded in rebel attacks. The bombers have targeted civilians as well as Iraq’s nascent security structures and the U.S.-led forces. The security official said that as well as car bombs there had also been a rise in the number of “walk-in” suicide attacks. He said the U.S. military and Iraqi authorities were increasingly alarmed at the cooperation between foreign militants in Iraq and “the domestic insurgents.” This could turn “the homegrown resistance into a breeding ground for a major jihadi movement.”

A U.S. military spokesman in Iraq said the insurgency was averaging 70 attacks a day this month, up from 30 to 40 in February and March.

Wednesday the bloodshed continued, with five suicide bombings — one each in the central Iraqi towns of Hawija and Tikrit, and three in Baghdad. The heaviest casualties occurred in Hawija at a police and army recruitment center. Witnesses said a man with explosives strapped to his body slipped through a security cordon and blew himself up in a line of 150 people. Iraqi police said at least 30 people had been killed and 35 injured.

In Tikrit, 80 miles north of Baghdad, at least 33 people were killed and 80 wounded when a suicide car bomb exploded in a market near a police station. Police said the station had been targeted, but the bomber swerved into a crowd because he was unable to breach the security barriers. “What I saw was a tragedy,” said Ibrahim Mohammed, a migrant worker. “Some people had their heads torn off by the explosion, some were burned, some were ripped to pieces.” The group Ansar al-Sunn later claimed responsibility.

Three car bombs targeting a police station and patrols exploded in Baghdad, killing at least four people and wounding 14, police said.

Iraq’s new interior minister, Bayan Baqir Jabr, claimed the government had a grip on the security situation, saying committees of police and military officials had been formed to implement a plan to protect Iraqi cities. He gave no details.

U.S. forces continued with a large-scale offensive in the western desert near the Syrian border, aiming to disrupt militant supply lines into Iraq. Operation Matador was launched after intelligence suggested followers of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi had fled there from the restive towns of Fallujah and Ramadi, also former targets of U.S. attacks.

The escalation in violence has not prompted a rethinking in London or Washington over an early withdrawal of troops. Downing Street acknowledges the violence has become heavier recently, blaming a three-month political vacuum as Iraqi politicians argued over the formation of a transitional government, completed this week, and an improvement in the efficiency of the rebels. Officials are adamant British troops will not be withdrawn until Iraqi security forces can begin to take over.

The U.S., Britain and other coalition forces are mandated by the U.N. to remain in Iraq only until the completion of the political process in December, when elections are set to take place, but they admit the lack of readiness among Iraqi forces means they may stay longer.

Kim Howells, the new Foreign Office minister responsible for the Middle East, Wednesday described the attacks as “horrendous.” He said: “These and other recent tragic incidents are the desperate acts of those seeking to destabilize the successful democratic political process … They will not win.”

In the United States, meanwhile, the Senate voted unanimously for $76 billion to fund this year’s military operations in Iraq. The vote also increased payments to families of soldiers killed in combat from $12,000 to $100,000.

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Mixed report

Kofi Annan, cleared in a contract scandal involving his son but still under fire, says he won't resign as head of the U.N.

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The position of the U.N. secretary-general, Kofi Annan, was undermined Tuesday after an independent inquiry into the oil-for-food scandal heavily criticized his son Kojo and a Swiss company. Although Annan was personally cleared of improper influence in the awarding of a contract to the company, Cotecna, the committee of inquiry’s findings about his son left question marks about his stewardship of the U.N., which has come under increasing pressure.

At a press conference Tuesday, the chairman of the inquiry committee, Paul Volcker, said an investigation the secretary-general had initiated was “inadequate” and should have been referred to the U.N.’s independent watchdog agency.

Annan was defiant. “As I had always hoped and firmly believed, the inquiry has cleared me of any wrongdoing,” he said. Asked if he would resign, he replied: “Hell, no.” But Annan, who is due to retire next year at the end of two terms, could now find it difficult to push through his reform program, and to pacify his critics.

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman said Tuesday: “His lack of leadership, combined with conflicts of interest and a lack of responsibility and accountability, point to one, and only one, outcome: his resignation.”

In Washington, the White House voiced cautious support for Annan. Spokesman Scott McClellan said: “This is a very serious matter. We have stated that repeatedly. Congress has been looking into it as well. We continue to support the United Nations; we continue to support Secretary-General Annan in his work at the United Nations. We will carefully study the report that Volcker has put forward today. We’re also looking forward to seeing the final results of his investigation.”

The inquiry is continuing and is due to issue its final report in the summer. It will give its verdict on the wider issue of the conduct of the oil-for-food-program, which was set up to minimize the impact of sanctions on Iraq by allowing Saddam Hussein to sell oil in return for food, a system open to abuse. An interim report of the inquiry released last month was critical of the U.N.’s handling of the program.

Tuesday’s report dealt with the specific issue of whether the award of a contract by the U.N. to Cotecna, which employed Kojo Annan, was free of improper or illicit influence. Cotecna was selected by the U.N. in December 1998 to conduct inspections of humanitarian goods entering Iraq.

The report concluded: “There is no evidence that the selection of Cotecna in 1998 was subject to affirmative or improper influence of the secretary general in the bidding or selection process.” But the report notes that U.N. rules were not followed: Cotecna was not asked to submit a financial statement, one that might have helped reveal the company’s financial strains at the time.

Volcker said: “Our investigation has disclosed several instances in which [Annan] might, or could, have become aware of Cotecna’s participation in the bidding process. However, there is neither convincing testimony to that effect nor any documentary evidence.”

Volcker added: “Taking all of this into account, the committee has not found the evidence is reasonably sufficient to show that the secretary general knew that Cotecna had participated in the bidding process in 1998.”

But the report is critical of Kojo Annan. He left Cotecna in 1998, but, apparently unknown to the U.N. or his father, continued to be paid by the company until 2004. The report said that after the media disclosed his relationship with the company in January 1999, Kojo Annan “actively participated in efforts by Cotecna to conceal the true nature of its continuing relationship with him. Kojo Annan also intentionally deceived the secretary general about this continuing financial relationship.” Nor had he been totally forthcoming to the inquiry about the payments.

The report adds: “Significant questions remain about the actions of Kojo Annan during the fall of 1998 as well as about the integrity of Kojo Annan’s business and financial dealings with respect to the program.” The inquiry is still looking into this.

The report concluded that Cotecna had cooperated in making documents and staff available, but that it had “made false statements to the public, the United Nations and the committee.”

Annan’s former chief of staff, Iqbal Riza, is also criticized for allegedly giving the go-ahead for the shredding of documents relevant to the inquiry. The report says an assistant to Riza, who retired in December, had shredded many documents in 2004. The shredding continued even after Annan issued an order that all oil-for-food documents be preserved, Volcker said. Riza “acted imprudently” and in violation of the document preservation order, the committee concluded.

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Rising death toll in Sudan

Nearly a year after the U.N. described Darfur as the world's worst humanitarian crisis, starvation and disease are growing, and the deadlock on sanctions continues.

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More than 180,000 people have died from hunger and disease during the last 18 months of the Darfur conflict, the United Nations said Tuesday, as negotiations continued at its New York headquarters to break the deadlock on a new Security Council resolution to impose sanctions on the Sudanese government.

Brian Grogan, a spokesman for Jan Egeland, the U.N. emergency relief coordinator, said an average 10,000 Sudanese civilians were dying each month, much higher than earlier estimates. They were victims mainly of starvation or of disease in refugee camps after being driven from their villages by Sudanese soldiers and government-backed Janjaweed militiamen. The estimates exclude those killed in the fighting.

Khartoum accused the U.N. of producing the figures as a ploy to get the Security Council to take action against Sudan, and demanded evidence to back up the numbers. Sudanese Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismail said: “Jan Egeland was here — I met him [and] he never mentioned this number.” Egeland said last week that an estimate of 70,000 was too low, but did not indicate what he regarded as a more realistic figure.

Nearly a year after the U.N. described Darfur as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, there is no sign the scorched-earth campaign against black African villages is over. Hundreds of new refugees are flooding into overcrowded camps, such as the giant settlement at Kalma in south Darfur, which housed fewer than 10,000 people this time last year but now houses 100,000.

Sally Austin, assistant country director for the aid agency Care, said: “When I was there last, three weeks ago, we were seeing between 200 and 250 people arriving per day in two sectors [of the camp] where we work. The new refugees are queueing just to be able to get plastic sheeting to build temporary shelters. They are having to queue to get on food distribution lists — not just queueing for food. We are also seeing people building more permanent structures out of mud, which I think is a sign that people realize they are going to be there another nine months.”

Nearly 2 million black Africans have been driven from their homes in Darfur since the war began, and a further 200,000 have crossed into Chad. Two years of war have transformed Darfur into a landscape of refugee camps — swaths of ghostly, deserted villages and roving armed bands.

The United States, which describes the war as genocide, is pushing for measures that will target individuals accused of major crimes, mainly in the Sudanese military, government and Janjaweed but also in rebel groups.

The U.N. Security Council failed to reach agreement on a new resolution last week. The U.S. blamed Russia and China for blocking a proposal to introduce limited sanctions. Others on the Security Council blamed the U.S. because of its objection to referring the perpetrators to the International Criminal Court in the Hague. The U.S., which opposes the ICC, has suggested that the perpetrators face a special tribunal in Africa.

The British government remains hopeful that a compromise can be reached by the end of the week. Rick Grenell, spokesman for the U.S. mission to the U.N., this week described as preposterous a report in the Guardian last week that the United States might allow reference to the ICC to go through.

A British source said Tuesday such a compromise remained a possibility, though hopes were beginning to diminish. The U.S. would need a cast-iron guarantee that its immunity from the ICC would not be affected, the source said.

China, which imports oil from Sudan and has up to 5,000 expatriates working there, opposes an oil embargo but is almost ready for a travel ban and an assets freeze on the main perpetrators.

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“The sense of expectation is palpable”

Palestinian leader Abbas warns at a meeting in London that without direct talks with Israel the fragile peace could be broken.

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Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas challenged Israel Tuesday to move to “serious” negotiations as a matter of urgency and warned that without political progress there could be a return to violence. Addressing Tony Blair’s international meeting in London, Abbas promised “to exert 100 percent effort in the domain of security” to try to prevent attacks such as Feb. 25′s suicide bomb in Tel Aviv in which five people died, but warned that “security is vulnerable to regression and even collapse if it is not protected by a serious political process between us and the Israelis.”

Although Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon met at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh last month, the Israeli government is resisting wider talks. Abbas wants direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians on the issues that need to be resolved in order to secure a final peace deal, including borders, refugees, Jerusalem and Israeli settlers.

The one-day conference in London, which was confined to discussion about reform of the Palestinian Authority and excluded these wider issues, could turn out to be a staging post on the way to direct negotiations. The Israelis were not present Tuesday. Abbas said the Palestinian Authority would try to find the perpetrators of last Friday’s attack but, in a comment that will infuriate Israelis, noted that Israel was responsible for security in the part of the West Bank the suicide bomber originated from.

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, responding to the conference, said: “I am very sorry the Palestinian leadership is still hesitating over its need to fight terror. It has to be clear that as long as they don’t take the strategic decision to dismantle terrorist infrastructure, we cannot truly advance towards peace.”

But Abbas said he expected the London meeting “will support and lead to the convening of the international conference called for in the road map, to discuss, based on international legitimacy, the resolution of all permanent status issues including: refugees, Jerusalem, borders, water and settlements, as well as all other issues pertaining to the Arab-Israeli conflict.”

The road map is a peace agreement drafted two years ago by the “quartet” of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia. Under it, after a series of measures have been implemented, including Palestinian reforms, a conference would be held to launch negotiations on a final peace deal. A further meeting would then complete the deal.

The quartet met Tuesday on the sidelines of the London conference. The group called for “immediate action by the Palestinian Authority to apprehend and bring to justice the perpetrators” of the Tel Aviv suicide bombing. But it also had a warning for the Israelis. It said a Palestinian state was viable only if it had contiguous territory and was not broken up into cantonments by the presence of large Israeli settlements. “A state of scattered territories will not work,” the group said.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who held a separate meeting with Abbas, echoed this. “Israel must also take no action that prejudices a final settlement and must help ensure that a new Palestinian state is truly viable. A state of scattered territories will not work,” she said.

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer told the conference that the two-state solution remained the basis for a lasting and just peace. “Therefore, we view with concern the ongoing settlement policy in the West Bank,” he said. United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said there had been many positive developments recently. “This is a moment of promise and potential. The sense of expectation is palpable,” he said.

The participants issued a 15-page communiqué, the most important part of which was the creation of a U.S.-led international team, including Britain, to help the Palestinians reform their security services. The team is to be led by Lt. Gen. William Ward, the U.S. security coordinator for the region. This sign of greater U.S. involvement contrasted with George W. Bush’s first-term resistance to calls for Washington to broker a peace agreement.

The European Union pledged $330 million over the next year to help the Palestinians rebuild their economy, and the United States promised $350 million. The U.K. raised its contribution from 20 million to 30 million pounds.

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