Afghanistan
Prophetic words
Just about everyone -- even Bush -- predicted the perilous situation the U.S. military finds itself in.
The news this week that the protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are diminishing the U.S. military’s ability to prosecute a possible next war should surprise exactly nobody.
In fairness, it might have surprised President Bush, who had just proclaimed, at his April 28 press conference, that this combat was certainly not diminishing our ability to wage war where and when we choose. But for residents of the real world, the news was predictable — mostly because of the number of folks who have foretold it and fretted over it since even before the Iraq war began.
For those who missed it, Pentagon leaders briefed members of Congress Monday on an annual risk assessment by Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Richard Myers that concluded that another major conflict in the world would be won more slowly and at greater cost than if U.S. forces weren’t tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Myers’ report cited numerous concerns, including dwindling stockpiles of precision-guided munitions and overwork of reserve units. More broadly, according to the New York Times, which received a copy of the still classified report, Myers wrote that the military’s risk of being unable to handle an additional conflict is “moderate, but trending towards significant,” though he added that at the broadest strategic levels, the military’s risk is “significant, but trending lower.”
Apparently fearful that the revelations might inspire foreign evildoers to get uppity (“Our ability to manage the perceptions of our adversaries is critical,” Myers wrote), the Pentagon immediately deployed senior officials to mitigate the bad news, stressing that Americans would win any new conflicts, but that the victory “wouldn’t be as pretty,” as one anonymous official put it to the Washington Post.
But the problem these anonymous spinners have is that the Myers report is not an outlying blip in a sea of otherwise good news. Instead, it fits perfectly into the growing picture of the military’s broader problems. On Monday, for example, the Army announced that recruiters had missed their targets for the third month running. According to the Post, the Army met less than 60 percent of its target last month. (Might this be related to the Army’s decision in 2003 to deploy 2,500 recruiters to Iraq as trigger pullers?) The Marines also missed their marks in February and March. Overall, the active Army is 15 percent behind its recruitment goal this year, and the Reserve is 20 percent off pace, Army Secretary Francis Harvey told USA Today. And this is at a time when enlistment bonuses are higher (and about to rise again) and recruiting standards are lower.
The Army is stretched so thin that not only have units meant for a theoretical Korean conflict been deployed to Iraq, but the United States has had to send the “Old Guard,” a ceremonial unit from Fort Myer, Va., overseas. It had not been deployed since Vietnam.
Personnel aren’t the military’s only problem. The United States pre-positions Army and Marine equipment on ships around the globe to cut down on deployment times in an emergency. Roughly half of that gear has been used up. As of the end of 2004, projections were that it would take two years for the Army to repair and refit its forces — if the Iraq conflict ended immediately. And there hasn’t even been enough equipment to train stateside soldiers for duty in Iraq. “The Army in the aggregate is reporting readiness levels that are less today than they have been in the past,” Paul Mayberry, the deputy to the undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, understated to the Post last month.
But perhaps the most infuriating thing about the current situation is how unnecessary it is. “You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want or wish to have,” Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld lectured to troops in December 2004. But under Rumsfeld’s bungled watch, the United States not only marched eagerly — and needlessly — into a prolonged occupation that many predicted would pin down and strain large chunks of the armed forces but did so with a strategy that maximized those problems. And with the exception of ivory tower neoconservatives who foresaw a brief occupation marked by grateful Iraqis tossing flowers (not improvised explosive devices, or IEDs), most military experts saw this whole mess coming.
Before the war had even started, then Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki told Congress an occupying force in Iraq would require “on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers.” Rumsfeld and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, made little effort to hide their disdain for the decorated soldier, with Wolfowitz calling Shinseki’s estimate “wildly off the mark.”
Many military strategists argue that a larger force could have brought order to the country more quickly and not given the insurgency time to fester. “What [the coalition forces] weren’t able to do was capitalize on that success,” Paul Van Riper, a retired three-star Marine general told me last year. “This is operations and tactics 101. You need to be able to exploit success and you need a reserve.”
As early as November 2003, the Congressional Budget Office found that without significant numbers of reservists being called up, “the active Army would be unable to sustain an occupation force of the present size [150,000 soldiers] beyond March 2004 if it chose not to keep individual units deployed to Iraq for longer than one year without relief.”
In February of last year, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., was among the many worrying that the Army’s Reserve forces were in trouble. “From my conversations with the Guard and reservists around the country, you are going to see a very large exodus of the members of the Guard and Reserve because of the incredible deployment and a burden that has been laid upon them,” he told Rumsfeld.
And the warnings weren’t simply coming from outside the Bush bubble. Then Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage (who is now running for secretary of defense) foresaw these problems as well. “Though [Armitage] believed they would put down the insurgency [in Iraq] and win in the end, the U.S. military was going to pay for ten years or more. The Army, in particular, was stretched too thin,” Bob Woodward wrote in his book “Plan of Attack.” “They were fighting three wars really — Afghanistan still, Iraq and the continuing global war on terrorism. It was not logical nor was it possible, in Armitage’s view, that this could be accomplished with a force of the same size that existed during the Clinton administration in peace time. But that was what the Bush administration was attempting.”
Perhaps the most damning criticism of President Bush’s mishandling of the U.S. military comes from his own prophetic words in his first speech on national security as a presidential candidate, at the Citadel military academy in September 1999, which was aimed at the Clinton administration. “This administration wants things both ways: to command great forces, without supporting them, [and] to launch today’s new causes, with little thought of tomorrow’s consequences,” Bush said.
The president would do well to remember those words in regard to his own performance as commander in chief.
Robert Schlesinger, a former Pentagon correspondent for the Boston Globe, is a freelance reporter based in Washington and a contributing editor at the Washington Examiner. More Robert Schlesinger.
Memorial Day’s lessons in amnesia
If nothing else, the holiday allows us to reflect on our commitment to forgetting bloody conflicts
(Credit: Carly Rose Hennigan via Shutterstock) It’s the saddest reading around: the little announcements that dribble out of the Pentagon every day or two — those terse, relatively uninformative death notices: rank; name; age; small town, suburb, or second-level city of origin; means of death (“small arms fire,” “improvised explosive device,” “the result of gunshot wounds inflicted by an individual wearing an Afghan National Army uniform,” or sometimes something vaguer like “while conducting combat operations,” “supporting Operation Enduring Freedom,” or simply no explanation at all); and the unit the dead soldier belonged to. They are seldom 100 words, even with the usual opening line: “The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Enduring Freedom.” Sometimes they include more than one death.
Continue Reading CloseTom Engelhardt, co-founder of the American Empire Project, runs the Nation Institute's TomDispatch.com. His latest book, "The United States of Fear" (Haymarket Books), has just been published. More Tom Engelhardt.
Where the wounded are
Wars don't just cause casualties among soldiers, they drain medical staff. I traveled to see the costs firsthand
A soldier is prepared for an operation at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. (Credit: Reuters/Kai Pfaffenbach) The weather’s getting warmer in Afghanistan and the war there is heating up again. That means – as it has meant every year for more than a decade — that the pace will quicken at the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. More casualties will be brought to this largest American military hospital outside the United States. The Critical Care Air Transport teams and their C-17 Globemasters will fly in from “downrange,” as they call the Afghan battleground, and the injured will be brought by ambulance bus from nearby Ramstein Air Force Base to the hospital front door.
Continue Reading CloseMichael Winship is senior writing fellow at Demos and a senior writer of the new series, Moyers & Company, airing on public television. More Michael Winship.
NATO invites Pakistan to summit
A sign that Islamabad is ready to reopen its western border to NATO troops on their way to Afghanistan
Oil tankers, which were used to transport NATO fuel supplies to Afghanistan, are parked at a compound in Karachi, Pakistan, Tuesday, May 15, 2012. NATO on Tuesday invited Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to the alliance's summit in Chicago, after signs that the country could be moving to reopen its Afghan border to NATO military supplies. (AP Photo/Shakil Adil)(Credit: AP) ISLAMABAD (AP) — NATO on Tuesday invited Pakistan’s president to the upcoming Chicago summit on Afghanistan, the strongest sign yet that Islamabad is ready to reopen its western border to U.S. and NATO military supplies heading to the war in the neighboring country.
Pakistan blocked the routes in November after American airstrikes killed 24 of its troops on the Afghan border. The attack sent ties between Washington and Islamabad to new lows, threatening regional cooperation needed for negotiating an end to the Afghan war.
Continue Reading CloseAfghanistan, I can’t quit you
My mom pushed me to join the Marines. Now that she's gone, I'm still drawn to war zones
A child flies a kite in Kabul on Tuesday Mar. 27, 2012. (Credit: Geoffrey Ingersoll) The heat. That’s what I remember most. Shimmery and bright. Blinding. Stifling. Heeee-eeaat.
The kind that’s not just on you, wrapped around you, but balled up and pulsing inside you — a desert blanket with teeth. It’s a type of heat that makes your skin cry and your eyeballs sweat, even in the shade; heat like a predator you can’t run away from.
I notice it right as I get off the plane — not just the degrees but also the dust. Dust you can smell, kicked up by a thousand years of struggle. In a region this old, I’m sure each breath carries a dose of unintended history: Inhale, Alexander the Great; exhale, the Ottoman Empire; inhale, the USSR; exhale, the Taliban.
Continue Reading CloseGeoffrey Ingersoll is a freelance journalist, documentarian, writer, photographer, and veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom. He is the recipient of the Sam Stavisky Award for Combat Reporting. More Geoffrey Ingersoll.
What Obama didn’t mention in Kabul
Just outside the Afghan capital, the Taliban is in control and preparing for a wider war
President Barack Obama addresses troops at Bagram Air Field, Afghanistan, Wednesday, May 2, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)(Credit: AP) MAHMUD RAQI, Afghanistan — The office of Kapisa’s governor sits high on a hilltop overlooking the provincial capital, Mahmud Raqi. It has a beautiful view of the river below and the mountains, trees and fields that stretch into the distance.
Beneath the tranquil surface, however, lies a grim truth. Just outside town roadside bombs are planted to target NATO convoys.
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