Supreme Court
It’s the math: Roberts will be confirmed
Unless senators discover a skeleton in his closet, the nomination fight is over before it even begins.
No one is throwing in the towel just yet, but even hardcore progressive activists must be finding it hard to hold out hope that they can derail George W. Bush’s nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court.
It’s all about the math. The Republicans hold 55 seats in the Senate. Assuming that we don’t learn about some tawdry elements in John Roberts’ past — and probably even if we do — we can guarantee you that every last one of those Republicans will vote in favor of Roberts’ nomination. That’s more than enough votes to provide Roberts the simple majority he needs for confirmation.
Yes, the Democrats could conceivably try to filibuster the nomination, and if at least 40 of them stuck together, they could keep Roberts’ nomination from coming to the Senate floor for a vote. But if the Democrats were to go down that road, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist would almost certainly begin dusting off the nuclear option, and it’s pretty clear that there won’t be enough renegade Republicans this time around to stop him. Frist had to table his nuclear option plans in May when the “Gang of 14″ struck a compromise deal: Seven Republicans wouldn’t vote in favor of the nuclear option — which would have had the effect of eliminating filibusters for judicial nominees — and, in exchange, seven Democrats wouldn’t vote to filibuster any Bush judicial nominees except in “extraordinary circumstances.”
And this is where the math really comes in. Two of the seven Republicans who signed off on the nuclear option compromise — John McCain of Arizona and John Warner of Virginia — have already indicated that Roberts, in their minds, doesn’t amount to an “extraordinary circumstances” nominee who would warrant a filibuster. Thus, if Democrats do filibuster the Roberts nomination, McCain and Warner might well be willing to back Frist’s bid to go nuclear. And if they do, the game is over. Frist needs 50 votes — plus a tiebreaker from Dick Cheney — to prevail on the nuclear option. That means he can lose five of the 55 Republican votes and still carry the day. So assuming that McCain and Warner would go with Frist on the nuclear option, the majority leader would have the votes to win even if all five of the remaining “Gang of 14″ Republicans went the other way. And we’ll bet you a Diet Coke can and a “Long Dong Silver” video that they won’t.
Senate Democrats understand the numbers, and they’re coming to grips with the way they add up. “Do I believe this is a filibuster-able nominee?” Sen. Dianne Feinstein asked herself yesterday. “The answer would be no, not at this time.”
So Feinstein’s California colleague Barbara Boxer can talk gamely about the possibility of a filibuster — she said yesterday that a “filibuster is on the table” even though Democrats hope they don’t have to use it — but everyone in Washington has to know the real score: Unless John Roberts has got some front-page secrets buried in the back of a dark closet somewhere, he’s going to be sitting on the Supreme Court come October.
Tim Grieve is a senior writer and the author of Salon's War Room blog. More Tim Grieve.
John Roberts’ Gilded Age SCOTUS
Jeffrey Toobin shows how the Citizens United ruling challenged a century of efforts to rein in corporate power
John Roberts (Credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) The most important revelation in Jeffrey Toobin’s 10,000-word New Yorker piece on Chief Justice John Roberts’ takedown of campaign finance laws in the Citizens United case is the extent to which modern conservatism is trying to restore the Gilded Age. That was a time when corporations had more rights than individuals, when a conservative Supreme Court did its best to protect those corporate rights, and wealth and corruption ran unchecked. Of course, we live in a neo-Gilded Age, when income inequality is more pronounced than at any time since the Great Depression, and the Roberts court’s decisions in the Citizens United case helps bring us all the way back to those bad old days.
Continue Reading CloseJoan Walsh is Salon's editor at large. More Joan Walsh.
Obama destroys Constitution with mild Supreme Court criticism
Conservatives and moderates declare SCOTUS-bashing to be "intimidation"
(Credit: AP) Ruth Marcus is unsettled. Maybe even queasy. There is probably some light nausea. What has her worried for the future of the nation, today? President Obama’s shameful, horrific, vicious attacks on those nice people in the Supreme Court.
Obama said that the court overturning Congress’ healthcare reform law would be a textbook example of “judicial activism” as “conservative commentators” define it: “that an unelected group of people would somehow overturn a duly constituted and passed law.” And hey, that seems like an eminently defensible and not particularly unsettling point! Conservatives made “judicial activism” into a talking point and rallying cry and defined it vaguely enough to encompass judges striking down basically any law or statute.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
Justices run amok: Fixing the Supreme Court
Judges on the right and left legislate from the bench. So why don't we just elect them?
Antonin Scalia, John Roberts and Clarence Thomas On Monday, we had another example of the Supreme Court’s ideological division: a 5-4 ruling, along partisan lines, giving police the right to conduct strip searches for any offense. This came on the heels of last week’s oral arguments before the Supreme Court about the constitutionality of the individual mandate provision of the Affordable Care Act, which led many observers to predict that the nation’s highest judicial body will strike down part or all of the controversial healthcare reform package. But the hearings were instructive in other ways. They showed once again that political partisanship is closely correlated to a justice’s view of the law. And they proved that the Supreme Court once again is functioning, not as a court, but as a third house of the federal legislature.
Continue Reading CloseMichael Lind’s new book, "Land of Promise: An Economic History of the United States", will be published in April and can be pre-ordered at Amazon.com. More Michael Lind.
Why I need Obamacare
I'm sick, and I will be for the rest of my life. Knowing I won't be denied the insurance I need matters
Supporters of health care reform stand in front of the Supreme Court in Washington, Wednesday, March 28, 2012, on the final day of arguments regarding the health care law signed by President Barack Obama. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)(Credit: AP) Dear healthy people,
It’s great that you’re deriving intellectual pleasure from debating Obamacare. I love that this theoretical dance you’re engaged in has no repercussions to you, a healthy individual. I would love to join you some evening for a spirited discussion on the pros and cons of healthcare reform. Maybe over a glass of wine? Heck — over two or three glasses of wine. I’d love to lean forward, my arched brows furrowed, my full lips purple with the stain of a good Zinfandel, and throw out statistics and well-crafted one-liners about the plight of the uninsured, the underinsured, the sick. Those poor, poor sick.
Continue Reading CloseCedar Burnett is a freelance writer and toddler wrangler living in Seattle. She is currently working on a book about living with ulcerative colitis. More Cedar Burnett.
The conservative grip on power
A ruthless GOP power grab, centered around the Supreme Court, has cemented conservative control in Washington
Clarence Thomas, George W. Bush and Antonin Scalia (Credit: AP) Writing in Salon, Natasha Lennard proposes that with the warm weather we can again expect the Occupy movement to shoot up. Arab Spring, American Spring. She’s right about one thing: Like in the decades before the Arab Spring, it has been a long, cold, American winter. In the 30 years since coming to power here, Republicans have used their initial ascent to power to seal themselves into office as tightly as the pharaohs. Smart commentators have noted how lawless the conservatives are in making substantive decisions, but that’s not the worst of it. The worst of it is how they use their tenure to make it increasingly impossible to oust them.
Continue Reading CloseLinda Hirshman is the author of “Victory: The Triumphant Gay Revolution,” forthcoming in June 2012. Follow her on Twitter @LindaHirshman1 More Linda Hirshman.
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