Silicon Valley

Chasing tail

New-business geeks are hailing Wired editor Chris Anderson for his sexy "long tail" theory of cultural consumption. But is his book for us or CEOs?

  • more
    • All Share Services

Almost two years ago, Chris Anderson, who is the editor of Wired magazine, published an article describing the intriguing features of markets — such as that for books, CDs and DVDs — in which scarcity is giving way to abundance. Anderson argued that unlimited selection — the 3.7 million books on Amazon.com versus the 100,000 available at your local Borders, to take one example — has occasioned a shift in the culture away from big hits and toward smaller niches. Anyone who has ever purchased media online knows this intuitively; which Netflix user hasn’t burst into frenzied delight at the possibility of renting every Preston Sturges feature instead of just the latest thing Will Ferrell’s starring in? But Anderson was the first to put a picture and a name to the phenomenon of unlimited selection, and he was greeted as a prophet of the new.

To understand what captivated people, you’ve got to look at the picture Anderson coined, a simple graph that orders the popularity of each title in a catalog from high to low — say, the popularity of every book in print, or of every DVD for sale. The diagram looks roughly like a hockey stick turned on its side. The blade of the stick represents hits, the few titles that, in any given time period, huge numbers of us are buying. Anderson calls this part of the graph the “head”; it’s in the head that you’ll find Will Ferrell. The rest of the graph — the shaft of the hockey stick — is the object of Anderson’s obsession. He calls it the “tail.”

Anderson’s singular insight was that, in a digital world, the tail goes on and on and on. Your local Blockbuster can’t waste valuable shelf space on something as unpopular as Preston Sturges’ oeuvre; since the shop maxes out at about 3,000 DVDs, there isn’t much room to stock items way down in the tail. But storing a DVD in a mail-order warehouse is much cheaper than storing it in a Blockbuster store, and storing a digital movie on an Internet server is essentially free. That’s the magic of online distribution: Netflix can carry all the Preston Sturges DVDs, and iTunes can keep the obscurest of covers, and YouTube can put up every inane or insane video ever captured by man. And according to Anderson, online merchants like Netflix, iTunes and others do a substantial business selling niche items. It turns out that there’s always someone, somewhere interested in watching old episodes of “He-Man and the Masters of the Universe” or whatever else you think would never ring your bell. Unlimited selection is allowing us to indulge our deepest media desires, and it’s big business, too.

Anderson could have called his idea the “Incredibly Tall Hockey Stick,” but he’s a huge Malcolm Gladwell fan, and thus he understands that if you want to get business people to home in on your idea, nomenclature is crucial. So he called it “The Long Tail,” and, like the “The Tipping Point,” the appellation is now nearly inescapable. At certain insufferable Silicon Valley cocktail parties you’ll find folks luxuriating over the phrase, gabbing about how to angle in on the true prize in Anderson’s insight, which he helpfully outlines in his book’s subtitle: “Why the future of business is selling less of more.”

Anderson and his fans have been ruminating over the “long tail” for a while now, and on Anderson’s blog and elsewhere, they’ve said a lot — you don’t understand, a lot — about the concept. During that time, Anderson also enlisted students and professors at some of the country’s most prominent business schools to help him research the matter. But for all this work, “The Long Tail” feels surprisingly free of new insight; it doesn’t say a great deal more than what Anderson offered in his breakthrough Wired article.

Certainly the book clarifies, bolsters, improves. The Wired piece carried the light step of theory, while the book has ambitions to a towering proof, with some tacked-on corporate how-to bits. The problem is, it’s a business book. Though he spends some time, here and there, discussing you and me, Anderson is mainly addressing those cheery SiliValley types looking to cash in on tail. As far as I can make out from his introduction, what got Anderson most juiced up about the long tail in the first place were the many conversations he had with new-media CEOs about their businesses. I’ve never met the man, but I’d hazard he’s the sort of fellow who actually has fun talking to CEOs.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Yet “The Long Tail” is about much, much more than how tech execs should design their online stores. The Web, iPods, iTunes, TiVo, Netflix, Amazon.com, e-mail, RSS, satellite TV, digital photography, cable news, talk radio, books-on-demand, the 500-channel universe, the information superhighway, the long tail: All these things are a really about one thing, and the thing is cultural fragmentation. The story of the long tail is the story of a dominant mass media shattering around us, and of what happens to society when we’re all forced to sort through the shards — all the information and the misinformation — that come at us in a world saturated by media. It’s true that one consequence of all this might be that more people will begin subscribe to Netflix and start renting a lot more niche DVDs. But that can’t be the full story.

In his defense, Anderson makes his interests clear all along. He came to Wired from the Economist, and it’s obvious that following the cultural fault lines created by media fragmentation isn’t his bag. As Anderson describes it in his introduction, his main quest is to determine how “long tail” economics will force “content producers” to adapt. His final chapter, “Long Tail Rules: How to Create a Consumer Paradise,” is the culmination of that mission — a step-by-step guide for CEOs to grab on to the tail.

My own interests require full disclosure as well. I’m as big a fan of digital tech as you can find, but I’ve long wondered, and sometimes worried, about the flip side to the media ubiquity we now enjoy, the paradoxical way in which having access to everything forces you to choose what you’re consuming. Indeed, this idea got me so hopped up that I’m currently writing a book about it.

Unlimited choice and easy access shake the world in unpredictable ways, causing people to splinter along the lines of niches they enjoy, and sometimes to lose touch with the world beyond. Today it’s possible to stop reading newspapers and instead get all your news from the Fox News channel — indeed, this is something many millions have done. Surely there are people who’ve decided that the only source they’ll trust for news on the Middle East is a favorite Haifa-based Likudnik blogger. In 2004, we saw huge numbers of people choose to believe something for which there was scant objective evidence — that John Kerry didn’t earn the medals he was awarded in Vietnam. Why did they do so? Not because they’re scurrilous, but rather because bloggers and talk-radio hosts they listened to spent months repeating such claims, and selective exposure, confirmation bias and a host of other psychological phenomena took over from there. The tail may go on and on and on, but does that matter if you’re only living in a few niches of it?

To put it another way, I worry about the filters. Because the long tail has everything in it, the only way to find anything useful there is by using some kind of filter. Often these filters are software-based aggregators of social thought: The New York Times’ “Most E-Mailed Story” list, Amazon’s “Customers who bought this item also bought …” feature, Netflix’s recommendations page, and even the Google search engine all enlist your own and others’ preferences to shape the world they present to you. But preferences don’t necessarily — and perhaps don’t often — coincide with truth. That’s why when you search for pentagon 9/11 you get a whole lot about why you shouldn’t believe the official story about what happened on that day. Even though the facts of the matter say something else entirely.

I’m not saying that the digital world will surely corrupt and ruin us. Far from it; I wouldn’t trade a world in which you can find BoingBoing for one in which you couldn’t. And “The Long Tail” is generally a thrill. People who aren’t familiar with how technology is changing the media business will likely find it a crisp introduction to some truly odd economic concepts. But there’s a good deal more uncertainty in this new world than Anderson lets on, especially for those of us who aren’t CEOs. I’m not looking to create a consumer paradise, and, chances are, neither are you. Yet the long tail is smacking us in the head all the same.

IBM’s Watson wins practice round of “Jeopardy!”

Computer, which tech giant calls "profound advance" in artificial intelligence, beats two former game show champs

  • more
    • All Share Services

IBM's Watson wins practice round of "Jeopardy!" champions Ken Jennings, left, and Brad Rutter, right, look on as an IBM computer called "Watson" beats them to the buzzer to answer a question during a practice round of the "Jeopardy!" quiz show in Yorktown Heights, N.Y., Thursday, Jan. 13, 2011. It's the size of 10 refrigerators, and it swallows encyclopedias whole, but an IBM computer was lacking one thing it needed to battle the greatest champions from the "Jeopardy!" quiz TV show - it couldn't hit a buzzer. But that's been fixed, and on Thursday the hardware and software system named Watson played a competitive practice round against two champions. A "Jeopardy!" show featuring the computer will air in mid-February, 2011. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)(Credit: AP)

The clue: It’s the size of 10 refrigerators, has access to the equivalent of 200 million pages of information and knows how to answer in the form of a question.

The correct response: “What is the computer IBM developed to become a ‘Jeopardy!’ whiz?”

Watson, which IBM claims as a profound advance in artificial intelligence, edged out game-show champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter on Thursday in its first public test, a short practice round ahead of a million-dollar tournament that will be televised next month.

Later, the human contestants made jokes about the “Terminator” movies and robots from the future. Indeed, four questions into the round you had to wonder if the rise of the machines was already upon us — in a trivial sense at least.

Watson tore through a category about female archaeologists, repeatedly activating a mechanical button before either Ken Jennings or Brad Rutter could buzz in, then nailing the questions: “What is Jericho?” “What is Crete?”

Its gentle male voice even scored a laugh when it said, “Let’s finish ‘Chicks Dig Me.’”

Jennings, who won a record 74 consecutive “Jeopardy!” games in 2004-05, then salvaged the category, winning $1,000 by identifying the prehistoric human skeleton Dorothy Garrod found in Israel: “What is Neanderthal?”

He and Rutter, who won a record of nearly $3.3 million in prize money, had more success on questions about children’s books and the initials “M.C.,” though Watson knew about “Harold and the Purple Crayon” and that it was Maurice Chevalier who sang “Thank Heaven for Little Girls” in the film “Gigi.” The computer pulled in $4,400 in the practice round, compared with $3,400 for Jennings and $1,200 for Rutter.

Watson is powered by 10 racks of IBM servers running the Linux operating system. It’s not connected to the Internet but has digested encyclopedias, dictionaries, books, news, movie scripts and more.

The system is the result of four years of work by IBM researchers around the globe, and although it was designed to compete on “Jeopardy!” the technology has applications well beyond the game, said John Kelly III, IBM director of research. He said the technology could help doctors sift through massive amounts of information to draw conclusions for patient care, and could aid professionals in a wide array of other fields.

“What Watson does and has demonstrated is the ability to advance the field of artificial intelligence by miles,” he said.

Watson, named for IBM founder Thomas J. Watson, is reminiscent of IBM’s famous Deep Blue computer, which defeated chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997. But while chess is well-defined and mathematical, “Jeopardy!” presents a more open-ended challenge involving troves of information and complexities of human language that would confound a normal computer.

“Language is ambiguous; it’s contextual; it’s implicit,” said IBM scientist David Ferrucci, a leader of the Watson team. Sorting out the context — especially in a game show filled with hints and jokes — is an enormous job for the computer, which also must analyze how certain it is of an answer and whether it should risk a guess, he said.

The massive computer was not behind its podium between Jennings and Rutter; instead it was represented by an IBM Smart Planet icon on an LCD screen.

The practice round was played on a stage at an IBM research center in Yorktown Heights, 38 miles north of Manhattan and across the country from the game show’s home in Culver City, Calif. A real contest among the three, to be televised Feb. 14-16, will be played at IBM on Friday.

The winner of the televised match will be awarded $1 million. Second place gets $300,000, third place $200,000. IBM, which has headquarters in Armonk, said it would give its winnings to charity while Jennings and Rutter said they would give away half theirs.

In a question-and-answer session with reporters after the practice round, Rutter and Jennings made joking reference to the jump in technology Watson represents.

“When Watson’s progeny comes back to kill me from the future,” Rutter said, “I have my escape route planned just in case.”

Jennings said someone suggested his challenge was like the legend of John Henry, the 19th-century laborer who beat a steam drill in a contest but died in the effort. Jennings prefers a comparison to “Terminator,” where the hero was a little more resilient.

“I had a friend tell me, ‘Remember John Henry, the steel-drivin’ man.’ And I was like … ‘Remember John Connor!’” Jennings said. “We’re gonna take this guy out!”

——

Associated Press writer Leon Drouin-Keith in New York City contributed to this report.

Continue Reading Close

Goldman Sachs’ Facebook ploy

The investment bank buys, big, into the social network -- and expands a shadow stock market

  • more
    • All Share Services

The “great vampire squid” of finance, Goldman Sachs, has invested $450 million in the emerging great vampire squid of cyberspace, Facebook. As the New York Times’ DealBook reported, the deal is gives Goldman a leg up on the huge fees investment banks will get when the social-networking company eventually sells shares to the public. And as the Times and Wall Street Journal also report, Goldman will also haul in huge fees from those clients who want to invest themselves.

Meanwhile, Facebook gets the capital to keep buying talent and startups, and to fuel its expansion in all kinds of other ways — and it gets to sell stock in what amounts to a shadow stock market that’s growing faster than regulators seem willing or able to understand, much less deal with.

This looks like a better deal for Facebook than its investor, putting Facebook’s value at $50 billion, which makes sense in today’s increasingly bubble-like market. Silicon Valley is going a bit wild again– not as crazy as the late 1990s, mind you, but there’s a froth element to the local economy.

An interesting question now is whether Facebook will do a a real public offering anytime soon. Federal rules require significant data disclosures when a company has 500 or more shareholders, and surely Facebook is at that point or nearing it. The Goldman deal may be an end-run around the rule, with Goldman not selling Facebook shares to its clients, but rather selling shares in something it (Goldman) owns. If this is the game, and if the SEC lets it happen, the 500-shareholder rule has become meaningless — and markets are all the more opaque at a time when transparency is more needed than ever.

Opacity is a growing issue. A thriving shadow marketplace has emerged for big startups that haven’t done IPOs, so big that the Securities and Exchange Commission is, at least in that space, looking into the wheeling and dealing. For good reason: Many if not most of the investors in these markets have no idea what the true financial picture may be of the shares they’re buying.

Facebook seems like a no-brainer right now. It reportedly has passed Google as the most visited website, and it’s growing in power and people. And Goldman, for all its sleazy ways, has smart people making investment decisions.

But Goldman was also a big investor in the financial bubble that nearly toppled the global economy. It escaped ruin only because we, the taxpayers (actually our children and grandchildren) rescued it and the rest of the banking industry. That was and remains Goldman’s real genius: making giant bets with other people’s money.

Continue Reading Close

A longtime participant in the tech and media worlds, Dan Gillmor is director of the Knight Center for Digital Media Entrepreneurship at Arizona State University's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism & Mass Communication. Follow Dan on Twitter: @dangillmor. More about Dan here.

Another big Web company erodes user trust

Yahoo says it'll sell bookmarking service, a reminder that we exist online at other people's whims

  • more
    • All Share Services

Another big Web company erodes user trust

UPDATED

(Please see the note at the bottom of this piece.)

Yahoo says it will try to sell its Web bookmarking service, Delicious. This news, posted on the Delicious blog, comes a day after widespread reports — unchallenged until now by Yahoo — that the company was shuttering the service.

One result of the earlier reports was a frenzied search for a new social bookmarking service to replace what many people, including me, have used over the years to stockpile and organize links to online material we’ve found interesting. A second result was a further hit to Yahoo’s declining reputation.

But the most important result may ultimately be what this move, among others. does for public understanding of the role of Internet service providers of all kinds. As Amazon.com’s recent takedown of the Wikileaks site it was hosting demonstrates, we are at the whims of the companies that provide the services, and they are increasingly demonstrating that we should be highly skeptical about their commitment to our data’s longevity.

We put our data — our websites, photos, bookmarks, email and more — on their sites. But they can, and do, change their terms of service at will, doing what they please with what we’ve put on their servers. And sometimes they just shut down the services they’ve been providing. They may do it for good reasons, or absurd ones. It doesn’t matter. The point is, they can.

As noted here some months ago, we all need a Plan B for just about everything we do online these days. If we give others a choke point over our communications, we are inviting them to throttle us.

Note: The original version of this piece said Yahoo was closing Delicious. That was based on a variety of credible — and, as noted, unrefuted — news stories that started appearing more than 24 hours ago. They were based, initially, on a Twitter posting that linked to a screenshot taken at an internal Yahoo meeting. The screenshot, which has now been taken down, had Delicious among a group of Yahoo services that were being “sunsetted,” which is corporatese for end of life.

Whatever Yahoo’s intentions with Delicious, my points here stand. Even if the service is sold, a new owner might radically change the terms of service (as Yahoo itself could do at any time). The users’ insecurity remains, whatever the ownership may be.

Continue Reading Close

A longtime participant in the tech and media worlds, Dan Gillmor is director of the Knight Center for Digital Media Entrepreneurship at Arizona State University's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism & Mass Communication. Follow Dan on Twitter: @dangillmor. More about Dan here.

Netflix’s streaming push: Charging more for less

The DVD-rental company moves hard onto the Net, and raises prices for early customers despite slimmer inventory

  • more
    • All Share Services

Netflix's streaming push: Charging more for less

I just downgraded my Netflix account, and will be sending the company $7 less each month than I’ve been sending for several years now. Why? Because Netflix is moving fast to live up to its name — to become an online video-streaming operation instead of the DVD-rental outfit it’s been — but in the process it’s raising prices while making its service worse, in key ways, for longtime customers.

These changes appear to make plenty of sense for Netflix, because the company will avoid the cost of buying and then mailing the millions of DVDs customers like me have been receiving. And, indeed, on Monday Netflix announced it was going to offer customers an all-online streaming plan for $8 a month.

I suspect there’s been a misstep, however, if I’m any example of the Netflix customer base. I’d been paying $17 per month for a plan that allowed us to have three DVDs out at a time, plus being able to view streaming content anytime. But Neflix has raised our rate by $3 a month, or about 18 percent.

There are way too many problems with the streaming-only plan to even consider it at this point. At the top of the list is the fact that the Netflix catalog of DVDs is vastly, vastly greater than what you can watch online. If the company really wants to be a streaming-only outfit, it needs to persuade the robber barons of Hollywood to digitize everything sooner rather than later.

And while the quality of the streaming is generally OK if you have a fast enough broadband connection — though it doesn’t look as good on my computer as a DVD — network congestion (in my experience) can cause the video to degrade in quality or, in some circumstances, pause altogether. I tried it on a hotel Wi-Fi recently, and finally gave up as the film kept stopping while the stream caught up.

So when the e-mail arrived announcing the price hike, my reaction was: Sorry, no sale. We’ve moved to a lower-cost plan that allows one DVD out at a time, for $10 (also more expensive than that plan used to be), plus streaming. The various plans Netflix offers now range up to $56 a month, and slightly more if you’re renting Blu-ray discs.

Netflix has leveraged the broadband Internet structure like no other company. It now accounts for a significant amount of evening data traffic, by all accounts. I’m guessing that heavy Netflix users are going to pay for the money they save in other ways when they start running into data caps that some carriers have put on their basic Internet service.

Wall Street was thrilled with the latest Netflix maneuver, pushing the stock price way up on Monday (though it eased off slightly this morning). The share price has roughly quadrupled in the past year — evidence of investors’ love for the company, an infatuation I believe has been mostly justified.

But I’m convinced that this move by Netflix is too little, too soon. And I’m betting I’m not the only one who feels that way.

Continue Reading Close

A longtime participant in the tech and media worlds, Dan Gillmor is director of the Knight Center for Digital Media Entrepreneurship at Arizona State University's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism & Mass Communication. Follow Dan on Twitter: @dangillmor. More about Dan here.

Google gives Gmail users more control over inboxes

Now users can choose chronological stacking over threaded messages

  • more
    • All Share Services

Google Inc. is addressing one of the biggest complaints about its free e-mail service by giving people more control over how their inboxes are organized.

The new option announced Wednesday will allow Gmail users to choose whether they prefer their incoming messages stacked in chronological order, instead of having them threaded together as part of the same electronic conversation.

Gmail has been automatically grouping messages by topic or senders since Google rolled out the service six years ago.

But this so-called “conversation view” confused or frustrated many Gmail users who had grown accustomed to seeing all their newest messages at the top of the inbox followed by the older correspondence. After all, that’s how most other e-mail programs work.

The complaints grew loud enough to persuade Google to revise the Gmail settings so users can turn off conversation view and unravel their messages.

“We really hoped everyone would learn to love conversation view, but we came to realize that it’s just not right for some people,” Google software engineer Doug Chen wrote in a Wednesday blog post.

The aversion to conversation view doesn’t seem to be widespread. Gmail ended July with nearly 186 million worldwide users, a 22 percent increase from the same time a year ago, according to the research firm comScore Inc. Both Microsoft’s Windows Live Hotmail (nearly 346 million users) and Yahoo’s e-mail (303 million users) are larger, but aren’t growing nearly as rapidly as Gmail.

Continue Reading Close

Page 1 of 24 in Silicon Valley