Baseball
The Unwritten Rule War rages on
If the Blue Jays threw at the Rays for bunting with a five-run lead in the sixth, things are getting worse.
The latest flare-up in the Unwritten Rules War happened at the Toronto Blue Jays-Tampa Bay Rays game in Florida Saturday.
Toronto pitcher Brandon League was ejected after plunking Tampa Bay catcher Dioner Navarro in the eighth inning. In Navarro’s previous at-bat, the Rays up 5-0 with two outs and one on in the sixth inning, he’d bunted for a single.
Now, what really happened is he said-he said. League said the pitch got away from him, Rays manager Joe Maddon said League threw a purpose pitch.
“I really disagree with that they did,” the Associated Press quoted Maddon saying. “We’ll stop trying to score runs when they stop trying. Maybe in 1922 you wouldn’t do that because nobody could hit a home run. But in the year 2008, people can hit home runs.” Maddon pointed out that after the Rays had scored a run in the eighth to make it 6-0, the Blue Jays scored four runs in the ninth inning and brought the tying run to the plate.
We’ve talked around here about how teams that are losing need to shut up about the unwritten rules and quit whining about the leading team continuing to play to win. To review for those who just came in: If you don’t like the other team running up the score or rubbing it in or showing you up, play better.
But what’s notable here is that the threshold seems to be going in the wrong direction. If the Jays really were retaliating for Navarro’s bunt — and it’s certainly a possibility they were not — that would represent a kind of blowout inflation. Five to nothing in the sixth inning is bad, but it’s not a complete massacre. If that counts as a blowout now, we’re going to have a lot more of this unwritten-rule griping.
Christopher Shea’s Win Expectancy Finder totals up the results of all the games that had any given situation between 1977 and 2006 — except 1999, for some reason — and arrives at a winning percentage, which is the win expectancy.
Navarro’s situation was the home team batting in the sixth inning, two outs, man on first, up by five. According to the finder, the home team went 725-29 after being in that situation in the games the finder uses. That’s a .962 winning percentage, so the situation gives the home team a win expectancy of 96.2 percent.
And that’s using a lot of games from an era of much lower offense than what happens in the majors today. The win expectancy is probably a little lower in today’s high-scoring environment.
Still, it’s pretty high — as you’d expect. That’s what it feels like when you’re watching a game and it’s 5-0 for the home team in the bottom of the sixth and there’s a man on base. It’s not hopeless for the visitors, but it’d be a hell of a comeback. The game’s pretty much in the bag.
Here’s another situation, a hypothetical one: The home team is batting with no outs in the eighth inning, runners on second and third and a one-run lead. The win expectancy in that situation: 96.1 percent. Virtually the same as the situation Navarro was batting in.
Should the home team Cadillac it from there? The game’s pretty much in the bag, after all. At least it’s about as much in the bag as it was when the lead was five runs in the sixth. Not even the most sensitive unwritten-rule adherent would suggest it would be insulting or not playing the right way if the home team tried a squeeze bunt there to get the insurance run home.
Two weeks ago the Milwaukee Brewers took a 5-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. The Brewers’ win expectancy at that moment was 99.1 percent.
They lost, 6-5. It happens. Keep playing.
King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr More King Kaufman.
Guillen’s pro-Castro candor
The Miami Marlins' manager is lucky to get a suspension. Not so long ago, he might have received a car bomb.
A contrite Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen gestures at a news conference on Tuesday. (Credit: AP/Lynne Sladky) There’s not much reason to doubt that baseball manager Ozzie Guillen admires Fidel Castro. He said so five years ago in an interview with Men’s Journal. When asked to name the toughest man he knew, Guillen replied, “Fidel Castro. He’s a bull—- dictator and everybody’s against him, and he still survives, has power. Still has a country behind him. Everywhere he goes, they roll out the red carpet. I don’t admire his philosophy; I admire him.’’
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Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday). More Jefferson Morley.
The year of the baseball book
From a treatise on Yankee hating to a "people's history," a number of great books covered the national pastime
A simple and unsettling calculation reveals to me that this year marks the 40th anniversary of my coming to New England and setting up shop as a Red Sox fan. How innocent I was in that distant day: how little I understood the faces etched with pain, the haunted eyes, the lips that writhed in uttering “Yankees.” It did not take long to become afflicted by the same symptoms and, in my time here, certain Yankee-related events have been so traumatic that they are best designated by numerals alone: 1978 and 2003. The ALCS of 2004 (when the Red Sox came from a 0-3 game deficit to vanquish the evil ones) changed the region’s mental landscape — as, of course, did the subsequent World Championship(s). Since then, Yankee hating has become more of a pleasant pastime than a crippling mental and spiritual disorder.
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The team's revamped logo involves a whimsical rainbow swoosh. The effect is anything but intimidating
So far the biggest story to come out of baseball’s early off-season isn’t some splashy free agent signing or the abrupt retirement of St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, but that of the logo and uniform redesign of the Florida Marlins. The new look was officially announced on Friday, and if you haven’t seen them already, you might not believe your eyes. In fact, when some of the images of the new logo were leaked there was such shock and disbelief by the baseball world, most people assumed it was a farce, calling the look everything from “Hawaiian Shaved Ice” to “Push-up Pop” to “Rainbow Bright.”
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Like Mays’ over-the-shoulder catch, Buckner’s booboo is entrenched in American folklore. Jimmy Fallon’s Red Sox fanatic in “Fever Pitch,” distraught over breaking up with his girlfriend, watches Buckner’s play over and over on his VCR. During congressional hearings in 2008, U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., called former Treasury Secretary John Snow, then-SEC chief Christopher Cox and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan “three Bill Buckners.” On “Curb Your Enthusiasm” this season, Larry David loses a softball game when a ball rolls between his legs; his coach screams, “You Buckner-ed me!”
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Despite recent odes to “post-racial” sensibilities, persistent racial wage and unemployment gaps show that prejudice is alive and well in America. Nonetheless, that truism is often angrily denied or willfully ignored in our society, in part, because prejudice is so much more difficult to recognize on a day-to-day basis. As opposed to the Jim Crow era of white hoods and lynch mobs, 21st century American bigotry is now more often an unseen crime of the subtle and the reflexive — and the crime scene tends to be the shadowy nuances of hiring decisions, performance evaluations and plausible deniability.
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David Sirota is a best-selling author of the new book "Back to Our Future: How the 1980s Explain the World We Live In Now." He hosts the morning show on AM760 in Colorado. E-mail him at ds@davidsirota.com, follow him on Twitter @davidsirota or visit his website at www.davidsirota.com. More David Sirota.
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