Thomas Schaller

Do you think the convention pivoted last night to a stronger critique of McCain?

Well, I think it did. Monday and Tuesday tend to be days that you need a little less formality and a little less convention, if you will, and be more internal. I think it turned external last night and really began to focus more on the larger message for the country, with vice president [candidate] Biden. And tonight more so: I think Barack Obama is going to rip it tonight. I think you’re really going to hear the differences on what this is all about.

Do you think the tensions between the Clintons and the Obama camp are being accurately reported?

No, I don’t think they’re being accurately reported. I think there are some partisans, obviously, for whom it is harder to put behind them expectations, and that takes a little bit of time. I think the president last night did a superb job speaking to that. I thought he was very, very good and went beyond what I thought he would do … He validated Obama’s ability to be president. He talked about the attacks on him as an experience. That was really important. And so I think there clearly was a pivot, and I think we’re clearly on the road that you need to be, and I think these are the two most important days of the convention.

What did you think of Joe Biden’s speech? Were you surprised he didn’t talk about these things in his biography when he ran for president?

I thought it was good. I think Joe did what he needed to do, which is introduce himself to America and not talk so much to people in the hall but people in America … It really humanized him and opened him up in a lot of different ways. It really did raise questions about why people didn’t know more of those things about him.

A lot of people are saying, no offense, that they wished they had seen that John Kerry last night four years ago. Do you feel like …

Well, I feel like — no, on the contrary, I was that John Kerry four years ago … particularly in the last six weeks I was. I won three debates against the sitting president. And I think that I’m proud of what we did. We should have taken those Swift boat attacks on more directly earlier. We just made a miscalculation. The calculation was that we had put the truth out and people saw through that kind of attack. The miscalculation is that if you put a lot of money behind a lie, there are some people who don’t [see through it]. And that’s where we made a mistake. We should have put more money behind the truth.

And I think the Obama campaign has learned that, and they’re not going to give any quarter on these smears, lies and attacks. And I think that’s what’s important. You know, there are plenty of places where I let fire and let loose, like I did last night — believe me. If you go back and look at my convention speech it was a strong speech, well received at the time. But people tend to blur that and they don’t see it in the context of the attacks that came out afterwards. Yeah, we could have done a better job at making certain that we absolutely murdered those [attacks]. Believe me, part of the message I was sending last night was I learned that lesson — and never again.

On Thursday morning, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush joined the conversation with a Washington Post Op-Ed in which he suggested four ways the GOP can lure back Latino voters, including a recommendation that the party cast immigration as “an economic issue, not just a border security issue.” That afternoon Michelle Obama raised the stakes in the electoral fight for Latino votes with a “Let’s Move” national fitness agenda stop at Tampa’s Goya food processing plant, where the first lady touted the USDA’s new “Mi Plato” program, lamented the shortage of supermarkets in Latino neighborhoods, and applauded the National Hispanic Medical Association, the National Council of La Raza, and the League of United Latin American Citizens for their community nutrition efforts.

So there was ample  anticipation heading into last night’s debate co-sponsored by the Hispanic Leadership Network in Jacksonville just four days before the crucial Florida primary. And once onstage at the University of North Florida, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich did not disappoint. The two top contenders went after each other with obvious, mutual disdain on immigration, the subject of the opening question and nearly the full first half-hour of the debate.

Romney began with a thoughtful answer to an audience member’s question by delineating the three classes of immigrants as he sees them: those already here, those being brought here under illegal and often abusive circumstances by so-called coyotes, and those waiting to come here legally. CNN moderator Wolf Blitzer stirred the pot by asking Gingrich to defend calling Romney the “most anti-immigrant” candidate in the field, and Gingrich obliged. Romney objected to Gingrich’s overblown rhetoric, cited Marco Rubio and his Mexican-born father in his own defense, stressed a belief in legal immigration, and mocked Gingrich for his “highly charged epithets.”

A chastised Gingrich retreated to his impassioned arguments against the “unrealistic” deportation of families, and grandmothers in particular, who have lived in the country for many years — a position that earned him plaudits during a November national security debate in Washington. But then Romney, in one of his best debate moments of the entire campaign, drew cheers by deftly retorting that “our problem is not 11 million grandmothers.” For Romney, who has struggled to demonstrate whether he is capable of being tough in person (his television ads are another matter), immigration gave him the chance to prove he, too, can display Gingrichian outrage and he did just that. To paraphrase Emily Dickinson, the South Carolina-wounded Romney leapt highest.

As for immigration, the GOP’s electoral dilemma persists: The candidates must appease xenophobes within their base during the primaries, but to win in November the Republican nominee will need to be reasonably competitive with Latino voters in swing states including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico. As a hedge, Republicans tend to emphasize the legal aspects of immigration: strengthening border security, prosecuting crimes committed by illegal immigrants and cracking down on employers who employ undocumented workers. This is how Santorum and especially Romney try to remain anti-immigration without sounding anti-immigrant.

Jeb Bush’s Op-Ed reflects the party’s strategy for trying to carefully lure back Latinos by emphasizing the economic aspects of immigration reform while downplaying talk of deportation and amnesty. “There is no doubt that immigration is an important issue to the Hispanic community and one that must be discussed because it is clear that our immigration system is broken,” Bettina Inclan, director of Hispanic outreach for the Republican National Committee, wrote to me by email. “However, poll after poll has shown that the top issues for Hispanics when making a decision in the voting booth are jobs and the economy.”

Meanwhile, Democrats are enjoying this fight. Immigration remains a great wedge issue for them. In his interview with Univision, the nation’s largest Spanish-speaking network, Obama specifically criticized the Republicans in Congress and “two presidential candidates” for, respectively, obstructing legislative passage and promising to veto the DREAM Act. Obama said he continues to seek a solution to comprehensive immigration reform, but “if we can’t do the whole package, at minimum let’s get the DREAM Act done.”

Romney is the first veto-pledging candidate. Facing criticism since 2008 for his social issue moderation, Romney gambled that a hard line on immigration might pacify wary conservatives. In a September speech to the National Republican Hispanic Assembly in Tampa, Romney promised to build a “high-tech fence,” crack down on employers who hire illegal immigrants, and eliminate the government “incentives” like in-state tuition. That last part was a thinly veiled attack on Rick Perry, who was already taking heat for his support for tuition benefits at Texas universities for the children of illegal immigrants. Not-so-thinly veiled was the devastatingly effective anti-immigrant ad Romney ran against the Texan.

“Romney’s words might not hurt him in Florida,” where Cubans are less supportive of immigration reform, Univision columnist Jordan Fabian predicted this week, adding that “reform that includes a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants consistently ranks as a top issue for the broader Latino community.”

The second DREAM Act opponent is Rick Santorum, who has staked out the firmest immigration stance among the remaining contenders. “You know we want to be fair,” Santorum said last Sunday, adding that “the law is the law and we have to have a country that is respecting of all the law and if we don’t then we don’t have much of a country anymore.” The clear outlier in the GOP field is Gingrich, who supports applying the provisions of the DREAM Act to illegal immigrants who serve honorably in the U.S. military. (Despite the nearly 30 minutes in Jacksonville spent on immigration, the DREAM Act was not mentioned.)

While Republicans dodge the issue by reverting to legal arguments, Democrats consistently opt to frame immigration in highly personal terms. The Democratic National Committee lined up local politicians yesterday afternoon to fire preemptive shots at Romney. “I think we all understand how personal immigration issues can be to so many of our families. Even those of us who are documented may have a friend or a grandmother who is not,” said state Rep. Darren Soto, of Orlando, during a Thursday press call. “So when Romney says something like they should ‘self-deport,’ it’s personal.”

Last night’s debate was certainly personal for Romney, who needs to win Florida. For the first time in this campaign, the former Massachusetts governor faces the very real prospect of fumbling the nomination, no less to a man with the flaws and baggage of Newt Gingrich. Coming off the roughest fortnight of his campaign, Romney was prepared: on the talking points, sure, but also in his determination to beat back Gingrich, even if meant feigning a little anti-immigration outrage to do so.

He helped himself in the short-term, with a long-term cost to be determined.

As the White House’s list of SOTU talking points confirms, the not-so-secret theme for both the speech and companion trip is building a durable economy that rewards middle-class workers. The president will no doubt emphasize and empathize with the economic pain that residents of each state feel. According to “economic distress measures” published by the Kaiser Foundation’s statehealthfigures.org website, all five rank among the 18 states with the worst monthly employment losses between November 2010 and November 2011. Four of the five states rank among the top 11 nationally in mortgage foreclosure rates, and although the economy in the fifth, Iowa, is better than most, last year it ranked seventh nationally in food stamp dependency growth.

The Republican National Committee began criticizing the trip before Obama even left town, with Republican National Committee spokesman Ryan Mahoney issuing identical statements that merely substitute the name of each state’s residents. “Iowans [ditto Arizonans, Nevadans] need a president focused on their jobs, not a campaigner-in-chief solely focused on his own reelection,” said Mahoney. “Barack Obama should be more focused on getting Arizona’s economy back on track and putting the millions of unemployed Americans back to work, instead of constantly campaigning.”

A closer look at the five states on Obama’s itinerary shows what he hopes to achieve.

Iowa: Obama starts his re-election campaign today in the state that gave birth to his 2008 presidential victory with his first stop since July 2008 to Cedar Rapids, where he will visit Conveyor Engineering & Manufacturing, a 35-year-old company that makes “screw-type” farm conveyors. The theme of the stop will be manufacturing revival.

One of just two states (New Mexico) to flip from blue to red and back to blue again between 2000 and 2008, Iowa could again be a swing state despite Obama’s somewhat comfortable, 9.5-point victory there four years ago. Unlike the subsequent four stops on the trip, however, Iowa is different in two major ways. First, its non-white population is very small. And although political scientist Michael Lewis-Beck identified Iowa as the state most representative of the overall U.S. economy during the 2008 cycle, the second is that rising farm prices and the state’s relatively small number of foreclosures sheltered it from the economic crisis unlike the others. It’s current, 5.6 unemployment rate is among the lowest in the nation.

That said, because he cannot rely on a base of minority voters, among the five states Iowa is where Obama most needs to make his case to working-class white Americans that he has been and will continue to be the best steward of the nation’s slow, but steady recovery. According to a late November poll, he led the entire Republican field, but his margin over Romney was a mere seven points.

 Arizona: To complement to the traditional manufacturing stop in Iowa, the president stops in Chandler, a sprawling suburb southeast of Phoenix, for a tech-economy event at Intel’s Ocotillo Campus. Chandler’s Maricopa County is ground zero for the mortgage crisis. Although foreclosure rates there peaked in late 2009, foreclosure continues to be a problem; the county has a special hotline and webpage for residents facing foreclosure.

Arizona gained two electors from the 2010 Census, ranks fourth nationally in Latino population share and, along Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, represents the Democrats’ missing, fourth jewel in burgeoning Southwest. Obama lost Arizona in 2008 by about the same, 9-point margin he won Iowa, but in 2012 the GOP will not benefit from having native son John McCain atop the ballot. A late November statewide poll showed Obama with a 41 percent approval/54 percent disapproval split, but another poll two weeks ago showed him beating all Republicans challengers except Romney.

Immigration issues cut both ways for Obama, helping him among Latinos while hurting him among Minutemen-sympathizing voters who applauded Gov. Jan Brewer’s 2010 immigration law and subsequent lawsuit against the Obama Administration. As is so often Obama’s wont, in the SOTU he aimed for the voters in between, calling for a comprehensive reform bill while also making a veiled reference to his administration’s record levels of deportation. But at Intel, expect Obama to dodge the subject altogether in favor of sticking closely to his jobs-and-growth script.

Nevada: On Thursday, the president heads to southern Las Vegas to reiterate his blue collar—or in this case, brown collar—renaissance message with a stop at a UPS freight facility near McCarran Airport. It will be his second stop at a UPS facility in less than a year. Nevadans are really hurting: With foreclosures up and gambling-based tourism losses only recently rebounding, the state’s 12.6 unemployment rate is one of the country’s highest.

In 2008 Obama captured Nevada handily, by more than 12 points, after Bush twice won it. Obama led the Republican field in a pre-Christmas statewide poll, but only by single digits over Romney and Ron Paul. The Silver State gained one elector from the 2010 Census reapportionment. Like the stops in Arizona and Colorado sandwiched around it, Nevada has a significant Latino population. Like Obama’s final stop in Michigan, the union vote is essential for Obama to hold the state.

Colorado: Later on Thursday, Obama moves to Denver, site of his 2008 Democratic National Convention. He will address troops at Buckley Air Force Base, and his message will likely to shift to defense and security issues, as the president reiterates his SOTU.

Although Colorado experiences its own spate of foreclosures, the problem was less severe than it was nationally or in states like Arizona. But, similar to its other, fast-growing Southwest cohorts, Colorado features at least 100,000 age-eligible yet unregistered Latino voters. Like the Tucson-Phoenix corridor, the Boulder-Denver corridor is one of the pivotal, new-growth “ideopolises” identified by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira in their book, “The Emerging Democratic Majority.”

“We were also encouraged to hear the President talk so much about clean energy, as Colorado is leading the nation when it comes to renewable energy research and development,” Democrat Gov. John Hickenlooper said of the president’s Tuesday night speech. “Many of the new jobs the President talked for this industry will be created in Colorado – and we are ready.”

Obama cruised to victory in Colorado in 2008, and according to an early December statewide poll he led all Republicans challengers, if only by two points over Romney. Along with states like Montana, New Hampshire and Ohio, Colorado was one of the great stories of Democratic resurgence in the middle of last decade. The party has since lost back some of those gains in other states, and Hickenlooper’s 2010 gubernatorial victory was a notable exception. Obama needs Colorado—a state which derives its name from a bastardization of the Spanish “color rojo,” for its famed red rocks—to remain true blue this November.

Michigan: It’s not yet clear whether Michigan will be in play in 2012, even if Romney heads the GOP ticket. But a late November 2011 statewide poll did have Romney ahead of Obama by five points. Obama won it in a 16.5-point landslide four years ago. If Gingrich is the nominee, the White House can probably worry less about Michigan.

The details of the president’s Michigan event have not yet been released. Given his SOTU remarks touting the government’s role in saving General Motors and Chrysler from ruin, the location and theme is likely to be auto industry-related, even though the president recently completed such a Michigan victory lap in late-October. Still, it’s never bad politics for any Democrat to find an excuse to press the flesh with the folks who press bumpers.

For the past three months, political eyes have been focused squarely on the Republican White House contenders. But after his State of the Union speech, the commander-in-chief shifts himself into campaigner-in-chief mode, whether or not the GOP has settled on a candidate yet. There’s no point in Obama wasting a valuable head start on the general election he didn’t enjoy four years ago.

Before he left for the five-state swing, Obama’s White House released an eight-page companion document  for the speech entitled, “Blueprint for An America Built to Last.” With 48 combined electoral votes to be cast this November by this quintet of states, as President Obama begins his quest to amass at least 270 electors to win a second term the “blue” part of blueprint takes on special meaning.

And yet, the big numbers the president has thus far posted on the fundraising scoreboard have raised some brows of worry. After all, his 2011 totals are dwarfed by the monthly sums Obama raised during 2008. During his January 2008 primary breakout month he raised $32 million, and his post-convention August 2008 haul was more than $66 million.

As Politico’s Glenn Thrush reported last week, the economic situation, coupled with the belief among donors that Obama will be flush with cash, has made fundraising tougher this cycle than expected. “The fourth-quarter take brought the Obama-DNC total 2011 haul to $250 million — impressive on its face,” writes Thrush. “But operatives in Obama’s orbit concede that number could be higher and blame the problem, in part, on GOP talking heads who repeatedly assert that the president ultimately will collect a billion dollars.”

If not a billion, will Obama at least exceed his $745 million haul from the 2008 cycle? “So far, by the end of 2011 Obama raised about the same amount as he did by the end of 2007, although this time he’s also raised money for the party. The big question is whether he can kick it up to a higher level this year as he did in 2008,” says Michael Malbin, executive director of the Campaign Finance Institute. “I think it’s perfectly obvious that Obama will have plenty of money whether he sets the record or not. Last time the money flowed to him after it became clear he was the alternative to the front-runner, whereas this time everyone knows he’ll be the nominee.”

So fret not for the president. Although the financial sector is more strapped for cash than four years ago and the economic recovery nationally has been slow, Malbin believes the economic environment will not provide a significant fundraising drag on either party or its respective nominees.

Malbin believes the far bigger campaign finance question is whether Romney or whoever the Republicans nominate can keep up once the race simplifies into a two-person contest. Although he suspects the GOP nominee will be unable to match Obama’s campaign war chest, he thinks the GOP nominee will have “a fairly easy time” raising a competitive sum and thus will not be crippled financially the way John McCain was in 2008.

Meanwhile, the $1 billion goal creates something of a dilemma for Obama’s reelection campaign. On one hand, Republicans have raised expectations that Obama will reach the historic threshold, so failing to do so might be criticized; on the other hand, should Obama and the DNC raise that much, Republicans can warn forebodingly that the president is trying to buy reelection. Mitt Romney may believe income inequality should only be spoken about in “quiet rooms,” but you can bet if he’s the nominee his campaign will be shouting from the rooftops about the Obillionaire candidacy. Obama and the Democrats may be wise to keep their net total in the high nine figures, leaving the task of breaking the billion-dollar ceiling for a future presidential aspirant.

That said, does Obama even need to raise a billion in 2012? Given how much he had to raise and spend to fend off a Hillary Clinton primary challenge he doesn’t face this cycle, probably not.

Obama spent $92 million in 2007, plus another $100 million during the first quarter of 2008 when the primary battle with Clinton was still fully underway. So even if every dollar spent after April 1, 2008, is counted as a general election expense — a conservative estimate, given that Clinton didn’t drop out until after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries in early May — that means at least $192 million of the $730 million the Obama campaign spent was used to win the primary, leaving a little more than a half-billion for the general election contest. (The campaign spent all but $15 million of the $745 million raised.) If in 2011-12 Obama raises and spends $1 billion he will effectively have twice the amount to fend off the GOP’s nominee this cycle as he did four years ago to defeat McCain.

The more important target for Obama campaign finance director Rufus Gifford — who in 2008 raked in more than $80 million as chairman of Obama’s Southern California finance team — may be total donors. (Gifford and the Obama 2012 finance team did not respond to requests for comment.) In 2007-08, the Obama campaign received more than 6.5 million online donations from more than 3 million unique donors. This past October the campaign announced that it had already reached 1 million unique donors, and Team Obama is particularly proud of the fact that the average donation is less than $60 and that 98 percent of all donations are in amounts of $250 or less. Bodies often matter as much as dollars, says Malbin, because donor totals are an imperfect yet useful proxy for how many volunteers and activists a campaign can mobilize in the field in swing states.

But what about the independent expenditures of traditional PACs and the dreaded, Citizens United-era super PACs and their hidden donors? Won’t they mitigate Obama’s fundraising advantages? Perhaps, but not likely.

Campaign finance expert Sheila Krumholz of the Center for Responsive Politics thinks the major impact of super PACs may have already come and gone during the Republican primary, by “breathing life into campaigns that didn’t have a big war chest to depend on,” like those of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Restore Our Future, the Super PAC supporting Romney, also ran devastatingly effective negative ads against Gingrich in Iowa, which, combined with Ron Paul’s television assault on the former speaker, deflated Gingrich’s post-Thanksgiving bubble. Krumholz predicts that super PACs “will become less important than their more secretive nonprofit counterparts once we identify the Republican nominee and move through conventions and into the fall.”

Although the Karl Rove-led Super PAC American Crossroads and its affiliate Crossroads GPS 501(c)4 hope to raise and spend approximately $240 million, the bigger threat to Obama during the upcoming general election for Obama may be the independent expenditures of traditional PACs. But Obama supporters, including the unions, should be able to raise counterbalancing sums for independent expenditures — and, of course, Obama may have a cool billion in candidate and party monies to spend, should he even need it.

The scary talk about big-money electoral politics emanating from TV pundits and citizen groups is not unwarranted. Citizens United, a very unpopular ruling, is clearly bad for the republic. And liberals and Democrats have ample reason to worry about the prospect of Karl Rove dispensing a quarter-billion dollars in a single election cycle. But Howard Dean’s 2004 breaking-the-campaign-finance-glass-ceiling candidacy, coupled with Obama’s breaking-the-bank 2008 presidential run in which roughly one in every 20 Americans who voted for him also donated to his campaign, offer reassuring evidence of the democratization of national, or at least presidential, campaign finance. (PAC and party monies remain highly influential in congressional races.) 

Whatever Democratic theorists or talking heads may say about the state of American campaign finance, this much is indisputable: Should the African-American community organizer with the humble beginnings lose reelection this November, it won’t be because he was outraised and outspent.

Correction: An early version of this article described American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS as a “traditional PACs.” American Crossroad is not.

A tip for McCain, front-runner Mitt Romney and other Republicans: drop the “the” in front of references to Hispanics. Use of the definite article sounds a bit too much like the cringe-worthy “that one” line McCain dropped on Barack Obama during their October 2008 presidential debate in Nashville, and smacks of the sort of “these/those people” phrases that only turn away the groups described. This week, Romney smartly released his first Spanish-language campaign ad, a positive sign. But language is only a small part of the GOP’s problems with minorities, and Latino voters in particular.

Democrats dominate among non-white groups, winning among African-Americans and Asian Americans as well as Latinos. In 2008 Obama carried 67 percent of the Latino vote, and even won the Cuban-American subset previously loyal to Republicans. For GOP presidential candidates, the party’s struggle to attract Latino voters is particularly troubling for two reasons. First, the Latino vote is significant and growing quickly, and will in the near future surpass African-Americans as the nation’s largest ethnic minority voting bloc. (Latinos already outnumber blacks as a share of the population.) Second, unlike in the South where white Republican performance rates can counterbalance African-Americans’ overwhelming support for Democrats, the Latino vote outside Florida and Texas tends to be concentrated in Southwestern states where the offsetting effects of white Republicans are often insufficient.

George W. Bush set the party’s standard for successful outreach and performance among Latinos. In 2004, exit polls indicated that a remarkable 44 percent of Latinos had voted for Bush. Minority voting experts believe this figure is inaccurately high, but there is general agreement that Bush came close if not breached the critical 40 percent national threshold. And there’s no doubt his Latino support in 2004 helped him win four key Southwestern states — Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico — that either Bill Clinton or Al Gore had previously carried. By 2008, however, Obama swung all but McCain’s home state of Arizona back into the Democratic column, and did so rather comfortably, winning Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico by at least 9 percentage points.

What explains the Republicans’ swift reversal? Although other issues have contributed to the GOP’s struggles with Latino voters, the party’s strident opposition to immigration reform has poisoned the electoral well. From California’s Proposition 187 referendum in the 1990s to Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer’s signing of the most anti-immigrant law in the country in 2010; from the antics of crusading Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio to the state-level attempts to secure borders to denying benefits to immigrants or their children, conservative groups and their Republican allies are leading the anti-immigrant charge.

“The GOP’s reputation among Latinos is as bad as it has ever been, driven primarily by statements and state legislation on immigration,” Gary Segura, a Stanford political scientist, co-investigator on the National Latino Survey, and president of Latino Decisions polling firm, told me. “Though President Obama’s early inaction on immigration reform and his record deportations significantly undercut his support within the community, there is not a single Republican presidential candidate willing or able to exploit that weakness; they are all too busy tacking to the right to please their base.”

Only 17 percent of Latinos say that the Republican Party is doing a “good job,” according to a Latino Decisions poll taken last month. Forty-six percent agreed that the GOP “doesn’t care too much” and another 27 percent described the party as “hostile” to Latino interests. With a combined 73 percent of Latinos expressing generally or strongly negative attitudes to the party, the Republican nominee is almost guaranteed to win a minority of Latino votes in 2012.

The GOP needn’t carry the Latino vote to win presidential elections, so what matters are the splits nationally and in key states. Segura estimates that if Romney or any other Republican nominee fails to get 40 percent to 42 percent of the Latino vote nationwide, Obama will likely hold Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, and possibly win Arizona without McCain at the top of the ticket. “Absent a significantly refocusing event — and not even [Florida Sen. Marco] Rubio as the vice-presidential choice is likely to meet that standard — I cannot envision a way for Romney or any of his rivals to do better than Sen. McCain did four years ago among this rapidly growing segment of the electorate.”

In fact, there’s a very real possibility that, despite Latino frustrations with the Obama administration, Romney may do worse this year than did his newfound ally McCain four years ago.

“The current dynamic among Latinos is mild disappointment with Obama but outright fear of the GOP,” wrote Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a center-left think tank known for its analysis of Latino politics, to me by email. “Obama’s numbers have held, and Romney’s are far below McCain’s from 2008. And given Romney’s firm embrace of the anti-immigrant wing of the GOP, it is very hard to see how he makes up lost ground in 2012.”

Purple Strategies political consulting firm partner Rob Collins disagrees. One of the co-creators of the Hispanic Leadership Network, Collins cites three reasons why Romney or whoever wins the GOP nomination has a strong chance to outperform McCain with Latino voters.

“First and most important, Obama’s weak polling transcends all ethnic distinctions,” Collins told me, echoing recent evidence that Obama’s support among Latinos is slipping, partly in response to the president’s record-setting deportation of illegal immigrants.

Second, says Collins, conservative groups like American Crossroads and the HLN, along with the Republican Party, have invested significant resources on outreach and messaging to the Latino community. Collins argues that Republican politicians and strategists, who he admits not long ago suffered from viewing the Latino vote monolithically — failing, for example, to distinguish among Mexican Americans, Cubans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Puerto Ricans and other subgroups — now better understand the “nuances and differences” among these varied political sub-elements within the community.

Finally, Collins believes electoral success itself breeds success. “The Republican bench of Hispanic elected officials is deeper than ever,” he notes, citing the recent elections of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, plus Govs. Brian Sandoval of Nevada, Susana Martinez of New Mexico and Louis Fortuno of Puerto Rico.

Collins does not deny the GOP’s problems on immigration policy, but contends that there is a significant and growing gap between the “reality” and “ideology” of anti-immigration reform. Although most conservatives undoubtedly favor taking strong action to secure America’s borders, most are less fervent about rounding up and deporting every illegal immigrant.

This tension between strident rhetoric and reasonable action was evident in the mixed response to Newt Gingrich’s call for a reasonable deportation and amnesty policy — comments that drew praise from the likes of Miami Herald columnist Andres Oppenheimer, but scorn from Republican hard-liners like Michele Bachmann. Collins predicts that Harry Reid and Senate Democrats will make a major immigration reform push at some point this summer or fall, not in order to actually pass legislation but to demonize the Republican ticket and split the party in the months before the general election.

As Republicans try to simultaneously please both the xenophobic elements within the conservative base and the Latino voters it needs to compete nationally, they may be tempted to seek a quick-fix solution, notably the selection of a Latino vice-presidential running mate. Symbolic shortcuts to demographic parity don’t necessarily work, of course, and may create as many problems as they solve. (Think of all the female independents and disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters driven immediately and irreversibly to Obama’s candidacy after McCain in 2008 picked Sarah Palin as his running mate.)

But the choice of a young, smart, talented, swing-state rising star like Rubio — subject of a Ken Auletta feature piece in this week’s New Yorker — may not be a panacea for the GOP. Indeed, selecting him may only bring the party’s internal conflicts into fuller, public view. “Rubio’s ability to reach into the non-Cuban Hispanic vote is unproven,” says Rosenberg. “He does not do well with non-Cubans in Florida, and he has taken stances — no on Comprehensive Immigration Reform, the Dream Act, the appointments of [Supreme Court justice] Sonya Sotomayor and [Ambassador] Mari Carmen Aponte, and yes on English-only language — which in some ways put him to the right of Romney and arguably against the interests of those who must migrate to the United States in a traditional path, something Cubans do not have to do.”

John McCain is right: The GOP has a problem with “the” Hispanics. In general elections and especially during primaries, Republican candidates increasingly depend upon support and money from older, whiter voters who hold more reactionary views than younger Americans do toward minorities and immigrants. The intraparty conflicts that result could diminish over time, as the party replaces older voters with younger ones, and attitudes toward minorities soften, but only if the GOP doesn’t box itself into an electoral corner from which it cannot escape.

Although presidents should pursue the unpopular but moral, there is no such tradeoff to make here. The payroll tax cut extension is quite popular — though not as popular, mind you, as raising income taxes on the top 1 percent. Winning the payroll tax cut extension will not absolve Obama entirely from extending the Bush tax cuts, but it’s a start. And, whether for the purely cynical purpose of framing his case for reelection or because he now finally “gets it,” his Osawatomie speech earlier this month only represents a real policy and political pivot if he continues moving in this new, middle-class-oriented direction that already has him clawing his way back in the polls.

Although presidents sometimes do the right thing for the wrong reasons, the payroll tax fight offers no such complications. As a Congressional Budget Office study already demonstrated about the 2009 stimulus, which was arguably too small and included too few of the right kinds of tax cuts, the payroll tax cut extension will continue to be truly stimulative. It will go to people who need it the most and will spend the tax savings immediately, in ways that increase the multiplier velocity of money. The payroll tax arguably venerates both Keynesian and supply-side economic principles.

Although presidents cannot solely represent their party’s interests, behaving chiefly as a partisan-in-chief on this issue is no obstacle here, either. The payroll tax can unify Democrats, and Obama has already received ample and, in some cases, even unsolicited partisan cover from Republicans such as Scott Brown and Dick Lugar on Capitol Hill. As Obama noted in his press statement from the White House this afternoon, most Republican senators and leaders of both parties from both houses support the two-month, temporary extension. Obama can roar now that this will be a nonpartisan (at least bipartisan) achievement — and then boast later in whispered tones that it’s really a big win for the donkeys.

Although presidents risk looking petty when targeting opponents by name, this is not a political situation where fingering them squarely will backfire. Both parties know the Tea Party wing of the House Republicans, whose radicalism even House Speaker John Boehner is unable to understand, no less control, is blocking a two-month payroll tax cut extension in order to exact unrelated concessions. So why did he conclude his press briefing Tuesday with plaintive entreaties not to “play brinksmanship” games? To win in politics, sometimes politicians must call their enemies out, and be willing to go to the brink themselves by pointing a finger of blame squarely at those who deserve scorn. Calling out John Boehner is a good start, but the president should go a step further and call out the GOP’s Tea Party wing.

Obama’s presidency was supposed to restore some balance to the perverse economic and political power imbalance between the wealthy and the working. His was supposed to be the presidency that would change the way Washington’s political rules and rulers operated. His was supposed to be the presidency that corrected the nation’s economic course. His was supposed to be the presidency that brought together “Democrats, independents and even some Republicans.” His was supposed to be the presidency of hope, the presidency of change.

Well, here’s his big chance to deliver. He shouldn’t let congressional Republicans go home for Christmas without a victory on the payroll tax cut extension. He can’t let their stalling tactics break him. He should call out the radical House Republicans by name, welcome their hatred, and direct Americans’ ire right back at them. Occupy the Capitol, if he must. Because this is not just the fight of his presidency — it could very well be the fight for his presidency.