Football
Mike Shanahan: American hero
An NFL coach actually takes a risk and is rewarded with a dramatic win as the Broncos beat the Chargers.
The highlight of Sunday’s slate of NFL games had to be an NFL coach actually taking an honest-to-goodness risk. A doozy of one. With 29 seconds to go and the Denver Broncos trailing the San Diego Chargers 38-37 following a Denver touchdown, Mike Shanahan ordered up a two-point try. Jay Cutler hit Eddie Royal with a pass over the middle and the Broncos won the game 39-38.
It would have been the best game of the day without that play, but with it, shoot, it was the best game of the whole weekend.
The play there is to kick the extra point and take your chances in overtime. Each team has about a 50-50 chance in sudden death. The success rate on two-point conversions has been similar in the last few years after spending about a decade closer to 40 percent.
But that doesn’t matter. In the risk-averse NFL, even if two-point conversion tries were good 75 percent of the time, the play would be to kick and go to overtime because of that 25 percent failure rate.
A coach is going to get roasted for that one-in-four failure because he could have “played it safe” and gone to overtime. He’ll take a lot less heat for losing in overtime because, hey, it’s a coin flip.
It ought to be pretty clear that if the league-wide success rate is anything like 50 percent, then it’s often going to be a good bet to go for two rather than kicking and going to overtime. If the average offense facing the average defense has a 50 percent chance of success, what are your chances with a good offense against a bad defense? And what if it’s the end of a long afternoon, and that defense has just been on the field getting scored on?
The Broncos had just scored their fifth touchdown of the day, the third that had come at the end of an 80-yard drive. They’d rolled up 486 yards and 34 first downs. I think their odds were better than 50-50, don’t you?
That must happen reasonably often, that going for two when down by one late in a game would give a team a better chance at winning the game than going for one and overtime would. But the NFL Network said Sunday that Shanahan’s gamble was only the fifth time in the last 15 seasons that a coach has gone for two when trailing by one in the last two minutes. The two-point conversion came to the NFL in 1994.
The gamblers are now 3-2, and on a three-gamble winning streak, dating back to 2002, when Mike Tice of Minnesota tried it. Jon Gruden of Tampa Bay was successful in 2005. Hey, it’s been 11 years since anyone — Dave Wannstedt, Chicago — tried it and failed. Tom Coughlin of Jacksonville tried it in 1995 and failed.
So every three years or so — every 750 NFL games, give or take a few — a coach takes a chance like Shanahan did Sunday. There was a little mini-trend of risk taking in 2005, now that I think of it.
Let us now praise Mike Shanahan — who isn’t always above risk aversion but has been known to let his freak flag fly — the better to encourage his fellow coaches to take a chance every once in a while.
Maybe every 500 games or so. Let’s go nuts.
King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr More King Kaufman.
Can Tebow find salvation?
Updated: After losing his job in Denver, evangelicals' favorite jock faces an uncertain future in New York.
Tim Tebow (Credit: Reuters/Rick WIlking) [UPDATED BELOW]
You don’t need to be an evangelical Christian to care about the future of Tim Tebow. I’m a lapsed atheist myself. But with the resurrection of quarterback Peyton Manning in Denver, I wonder most about the future of the spiritual scrambler, who led the Broncos to the playoffs last year.
The Broncos signing Manning to replace Tebow is a no-brainer. He may be diminished by age and injury, but he is also the best quarterback of our time, not because he is a brilliant coach’s puppet (Tom Brady) or an on-field, off-field brute (Ben Roethlisberger) but by virtue of a fierce work ethic and a concentrated intelligence that is contagious and inspirational. Whatever is left at age 35 of him will make the Broncos better.
Continue Reading CloseRobert Lipsyte is a former New York Times sports columnist. His new memoir, "An Accidental Sportswriter," has just been published. More Robert Lipsyte.
The Super Bowl is not a job creator
Despite what civic boosters say, hosting the big game provides few long-term benefits
(Credit: AP/Michael Conroy) Roger Goodell, the commissioner of the National Football League, argued on “60 Minutes” last Sunday that the NFL is one professional organization designed to appeal to the economic interests of the little guy: Its revenue-sharing model, he said, gives a fighting chance to squads from Green Bay and Buffalo as well as to those from large media markets like New York, Los Angeles and Boston.
On the eve of the Super Bowl, Goodell was touting the familiar idea that the sport’s biggest game is a boon to economic development. But with the cost of a ticket now averaging $3,982 and 30-second television spots selling for $3.5 million, the Super Bowl can appear to be more an occasion for ostentatious excess than an engine of development.
Continue Reading CloseAlexander Heffner is a freelance journalist whose writing has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Boston Globe. More Alexander Heffner.
Political lessons from this year’s Super Bowl
From jobs to health care, football's big game illustrates the factors that will dominate the 2012 election
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (Credit: AP Photo/Elise Amendola) Most Americans won’t need a justification to watch Sunday’s game, but if you’re a Salon reader you might think, even in passing, that celebrating the holiest day of violence, consumerism and class warfare on your couch is a betrayal of your values or a waste of your time. You might even imagine that it would be better to take a hike, read a book or meditate.
Not this Sunday, buster. It’s an election season. You need to watch this game to fully understand how jobs, religion, leadership and healthcare dominate every American contest.
Continue Reading CloseRobert Lipsyte is a former New York Times sports columnist. His new memoir, "An Accidental Sportswriter," has just been published. More Robert Lipsyte.
Enjoy the game? For the true fan, it’s all about agony
The New York Giants are in the Super Bowl. But for one obsessive, the question is what time to take the Ativan
Ohio State football fans (Credit: AP) “The truth is,” Nick Hornby wrote in “Fever Pitch,” his book about his obsession with Arsenal and British football, “for alarmingly large chunks of an average day, I am a moron.”
That’s a wonderful sentence by one of my favorite writers, but if Hornby is only a moron for only large chunks of the average day, he is doing a lot better than I am. I can honestly report that for the last few months I have been an absolute idiot for all but very small portions of the day.
Continue Reading CloseTed Heller's latest novel, "Pocket Kings," will be published in March. He is also the author of the novels "Slab Rat" and "Funnymen." More Ted Heller.
Small blunders kill Super Bowl dreams
For fans of the 49ers and Ravens, the road to the big game is paved with pain
Kyle Williams loses it Just when it looked like the NFC and AFC championship games were going to last until the Super Bowl, two fatal blunders brought them to an abrupt close. The stunning conclusions to two of the most tense, evenly matched conference championship games in recent memory were a painful reminder that although football is a team game, one miscue by a single player can wipe out thousands of hours of collective blood, sweat and tears.
It will be a sad and lonely night for Baltimore Ravens’ kicker Billy Cundiff, whose shanked chip-shot 32-yarder gave the AFC championship to the New England Patriots. Kickers must have strong mental constitutions: in a sport where bonds between teammates are cemented in blood and pain, they are not always regarded as full-fledged comrades to begin with, and so when they screw up, it’s even harder for them to deal with. The mantra “short memory,” which defensive backs are constantly shouting at each other, applies in spades to kickers. Cundiff could use a tall glass of Milk of Amnesia.
Continue Reading CloseGary Kamiya is a Salon contributing writer. More Gary Kamiya.
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