Like other purple Southwestern states, Arizona has seen an influx of newcomers and rapid growth in the number of Latino voters, two trends that could help tilt it farther away from its conservative past. Which is why Don Bivens, the chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, is feeling pretty good these days. “We’re still going full steam ahead,” he said last week. His only regret? “I wish I had some of the resources they’re giving to New Mexico” for the presidential race. The presidential campaign is basically passing Arizona by, but even so, McCain was only up by 10 points in recent public polls; private polls for campaigns have Obama even closer in some congressional districts around the state. (Bivens says Obama’s strategists in Chicago tell him they’ll consider buying ads and spending some money in Arizona if it’s still close after the debates.)

Losing on his own turf would be embarrassing for McCain (putting him in a small club with Al Gore and George McGovern, the only nominees in the past 50 years who couldn’t carry their own states). The last candidate from Arizona, Barry Goldwater, won his home state (albeit by less than a percentage point) even while losing in a national landslide in 1964. McCain won’t be at risk of losing Arizona unless Obama somehow manages to put together an LBJ-size wave of his own in the next 45 days. What has Arizona Democrats excited, though, is the fact that even without a competitive race at the top of the ticket, they’re registering voters and raising money much faster than the state’s Republicans. Since the 2006 elections, nearly 76,000 new Democrats have signed up to vote in Arizona, compared to about 26,000 more Republicans. The shift has shaved a few points off of the GOP’s long-standing edge in party registration, and Democrats now make up about 34 percent of the electorate, compared with 38 percent for Republicans and nearly 27 percent independent. Financially, the state Democratic Party has raised more than seven times as much as the state Republican Party this cycle, finishing the summer with $325,000 in the bank to the GOP’s $58,000. “We consistently this year have been seeing unprecedented levels of support,” said Maria Weeg, the state Democratic Party’s executive director.

Randy Pullen, the state’s conservative GOP chairman (who hasn’t always been a McCain fan), claims excitement about McCain will help his side this fall. The problem for down-ballot Republicans is that while McCain is popular in Arizona, he doesn’t seem likely to draw out straight-ticket Republican voters who weren’t already going to turn out. A big bloc in the state’s deeply conservative Republican base has always clashed with McCain; his support for comprehensive immigration reform, which he’s been trying to distance himself from for the last year, didn’t help him with hardcore GOP activists back home who tend to see securing the border as part of an existential struggle for the state’s soul. McCain only won 47 percent of the vote in the Feb. 5 Republican primary, with Mitt Romney taking 35 percent — and this was in a primary that actually mattered, unlike later contests where McCain’s total was held down by protest votes. Arizona voters have no problem splitting their tickets — in 2006, Democrat Janet Napolitano was reelected as governor, Republican Jon Kyl was reelected to the Senate, and Democrats won the state’s two competitive House races.

“I don’t expect much coattails” for McCain, said pollster Bruce Merrill, a professor emeritus at the Arizona State University’s Cronkite School of Journalism who runs a monthly survey for the school and a local TV station. “The presidential election is a personality contest rather than party-based. The issues at the state and local level are heavily in favor of Democrats.”

With the economy in the tank, even conservative parts of the state could be blue this fall. Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell, who worked closely with McCain when Mitchell was mayor of Tempe and McCain represented the area in the House and Senate, may escape serious danger even though Republicans vastly outnumber Democrats in his district; the GOP nominated a relatively unknown conservative, David Schweikert, to run against him after a divisive primary. National Republicans seem to be staying out of the way of another first-term Democrat, Gabrielle Giffords, in southern Arizona, though she was initially one of their major targets.

In the state’s sprawling 1st Congressional District, which Democrats have only controlled for two years out of the last 50, Democratic former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is favored to win a House seat left open by the retirement (amid a corruption scandal) of the Republican incumbent, Rick Renzi. A native of the rural district, Kirkpatrick is playing up her ties to the area and her support for small-town Arizona in her race against Republican Sydney Hay, a rabidly conservative lobbyist for the mining industry who has worked for losing presidential campaigns for Alan Keyes, Pat Robertson and Duncan Hunter.

Hay wasn’t the first (or even second) choice of most national Republicans for the campaign, but they couldn’t recruit any bigger names to get in, and the national party has already basically pulled out of the district. During a debate at the Yavapai County Fair in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on Saturday, you would have barely known from listening to Hay or Kirkpatrick (and an independent candidate, Brent Maupin) that the presidential race was even going on. Yavapai County is ranching country, and conservative enough that the local Democrats didn’t even bother setting up a booth at the fair (or if they did, it was hidden away somewhere no one could find it). But Hay brought up McCain only in passing, and not by name; she emphasized her “pro-family” conservative agenda and stuck up for opening Social Security to private accounts. Kirkpatrick hammered away at her message that the war in Iraq is costing too much money and the government isn’t looking out for the little guy. “I’m angry about the situation, and I’m putting my anger into action,” she said. (Like both McCain and Obama these days, Kirkpatrick says she wants to change Washington.)

Even staunch McCain supporters at the fair said that wouldn’t necessarily translate into support for the GOP in other races. “We like to vote for who best represents what we feel is necessary” for the country, said Becky Dill, a registered Republican from Chino Valley, Ariz., with a McCain-Palin button pinned to her purse. She was open to voting for Democrats in local races (including the House contest), which she said had nothing to do with the presidential race. Meanwhile, Arizonans who don’t like McCain seem even more motivated to get involved in politics this fall in order to show him up. “For many years, I had a lot of admiration and respect for John McCain,” said Craig Mathews, a retired postal worker from Chino Valley. “I saw a real change in him before the 2004 election, when he turned around and endorsed George Bush … He’s willing to do anything to get elected.”

The area’s Republican state Rep. Lucy Mason, working the GOP booth at the county fair, told me she wouldn’t be surprised at all if Kirkpatrick — whom she worked with frequently in the Legislature on rural issues — won the House seat. She also sounded, ruefully, like she thought Democrats might take over the statehouse, in part because Republicans couldn’t wrangle up enough good candidates. “We lost nine seats just from term limits this last time, and it’s very, very difficult to find people to run,” she said. Republicans nominated conservative candidates in some legislative districts near Phoenix where the voters tend to be more moderate, and could suffer as a result. Democrats are two seats away from parity in the 30-seat Senate, three seats away in the 60-seat House. In 2006, they picked up six seats in the House and one in the Senate.

What Arizona may become this fall, even if McCain wins its 10 electoral votes easily, is ammunition for Democrats who believe the party needs to push hard on the so-called 50-state strategy. If it tips blue in the down-ballot races even with a native son at the top of the Republican ticket, it’s hard to argue with the idea that it’s worth looking for every vote you can find. Of course, it could also go down as the great “if only” of the 2008 election. As Obama scrambles to find 270 electoral votes, it’s hard not to wonder how much easier his job might have been if McCain had started his political career somewhere else.

Yes, I spent the historic 2008 Election Night at a golf resort in Phoenix and missed the parties in the street back home in D.C. But that’s alright — once Barack Obama had won, there was more news to come. I met Orly Taitz, and saw the first signs of stress appear in the relationship between progressives and the incoming White House. The new administration got moving quickly, and the conservatives were already starting to get a little freaked out (not least because the Republican Party was suddenly in the hands of Michael Steele). Between Tea Partiers and the endless healthcare reform debate, 2009 flew by. And suddenly, another campaign is in full swing.

But this time, I won’t be around to chronicle the rest of it on Salon. Today is my last day here; in two weeks, I start a new job as managing editor of Washington City Paper, an alt-weekly I’ve been reading for 20 years. As you may have gathered if you read any of the various posts and stories about D.C. voting rights that Salon’s editors indulged my desire to write, I consider myself a bit of a D.C. nationalist — my dad’s family has lived here for three generations, and I grew up in the area and have been back for a decade now. So the chance to help shape coverage of the city and region I’m so proud to call home was irresistible. (Besides, if I wasn’t leaving voluntarily, I’d probably manage to get myself fired over the next couple of weeks for ducking out of work too often to watch the World Cup.) At least in this new job, I should be safe from Andrew Breitbart’s rage.

It’s been a thrill, and a privilege, to write about these last few crazy years in national politics and government here. My colleagues at Salon are smart, funny, creative and supportive, and working with them has been a blast every day. And you, our readers, always keep the staff on our toes, sending complaints, ideas and — occasionally — compliments over the transom on just about every story. I’m happy to be joining you again as a consumer of Salon’s brilliant writing, just as I was when the site first started (though, fortunately, I no longer need to depend on a 14.4k modem to do it).

So thanks for letting me be your guide through the last two-and-a-half years of politics. (You can still keep track of me on Twitter if you feel the urge, and of course, I hope you’ll check out what we’re doing at City Paper, even if you don’t live near the District.) And for now, so long.

Watch here:

The recipient of $25 billion in TARP funds in 2008, Morgan is by far the worst offender. Its guide to the tournament, produced by the bank’s “quants” (yes, that’s the same term used for the math wizards whose models utterly failed to predict the collapse of the housing market), expects the U.S. to lose to England on Saturday, follow that up with a loss to unheralded Slovenia on June 18, then finally salvage some pride with a win over Algeria on June 23 — which would be too little, too late to advance to the tournament’s knockout stage. And just like that, the Yanks would head home, losers, along with the likes of New Zealand, Paraguay and North Korea.

Goldman’s team, in its report (PDF), wasn’t that much more generous to the nation that’s treated the firm so well over the years. “Group C looks very friendly to England, and in an effort to help boost the game in the U.S., let’s assume they come second!” the Goldman analysis says. “Both Algeria and Slovenia may have good grounds to question this.” In other words, the bank doesn’t really expect the U.S. to advance to the round of 16, but since this whole thing is just a silly exercise designed to get them publicity (you’re welcome, Goldman), the writers threw U.S. Soccer a bone. Then again, while Goldman did get $10 billion in TARP funds a couple of years ago to stay in business, it’s had a more tumultuous relationship with the government since then. Maybe if the SEC hadn’t sued the bank, they would have picked the U.S. to win it all!

Meanwhile, the Swiss bankers at UBS — who didn’t take any money from the U.S. government (but did get a bailout from their own taxpayers) — appear to predict that the U.S. will, at least, advance from the group stage to the single-elimination round. (Though only barely, and their chart ranks South Africa, Mexico, France and Uruguay — who can’t all make it, because only two teams from their common group will advance — as likelier to move on.) But they give the U.S. less than a 13 percent chance of winning their first knockout game, in which the Americans would likely face Germany.

Yes, I realize I’m taking these predictions more seriously than they’re intended to be taken, and that the reports are — as you might expect for a research document prepared by investment firms — larded up with disclaimers about past performance and statistical models being no guarantee of future returns. Still. This is the World Cup! It’s serious business! And for these Wall Street bankers to blithely write off the U.S. cause as hopeless — or worse, as Goldman does, a charity case — is downright un-American.

So if they don’t like America, which nation’s citizens do these cold-hearted bankers think will be dancing in the streets after the July 11 finals? UBS picked Brazil, five-time winners already. Goldman put Brazil in the final — but in a rare nod to style over mathematical models, picked Spain to beat them: “Here we are going to go against history and stick with flair.” And JP Morgan, picking Slovenia to make it all the way to the semifinals after edging out the U.S. for a spot in the knockout rounds, predicts England will beat Spain — on penalties — for its second-ever World Cup title. (For what it’s worth, I don’t expect the U.S. to win the tournament; I do expect them to advance to the second round, behind England, and maybe win another game if they get lucky. Spain will probably win, which would be fine with me, but I’m really rooting for Argentina, and I wouldn’t mind the Netherlands winning, either.)

These reports, then, should give anyone in America plenty of motivation to watch the U.S.-England game on Saturday: Not only is the U.S. the underdog, but Wall Street is rooting for the English. No, an upset win this weekend won’t fix the economy and undo the damage years of corporate influence have had on our politics. But it might help humble some smug bankers somewhere. And if that’s not a victory, what is? U.S.A.! U.S.A.!

With the 2012 Republican presidential primary set to start on Nov. 3, the day after the midterm elections, Romney has been busy endorsing candidates all over the country, and especially in early primary states like Nevada. Last night was a good one for one of his picks, Nikki Haley, who fell just short of winning the GOP gubernatorial nod in South Carolina and seems sure to win a runoff. But Romney hadn’t gotten involved in the Nevada race up to now — which was probably wise, since the GOP establishment backed loser Sue Lowden, and endorsing Angle before she won the nomination might have made Romney look a bit too enthusiastic about the Tea Party set.

Still, it’s not exactly a profile in political courage to endorse your party’s nominee against the very vulnerable sitting Senate majority leader. Romney took a similarly bold stand in the Florida Senate race a week before Gov. Charlie Crist quit the party — and well after it was obvious that Rubio was going to wipe the floor with Crist if he stayed in. Those risk-averse political instincts, though, could help Romney win the nomination as the safe choice this time around. After John McCain in 2008, Republicans have probably had enough of self-styled mavericks.

Then again, the folks Angle beat to win the nomination weren’t exactly world class politicians, either. Establishment pick Sue Lowden — who Tea Party activists in Nevada hated because, as party chairwoman, she had dared to cross Ron Paul during the 2008 presidential primary campaign — was leading for months. Until she collapsed suddenly, after babbling about people bartering chickens for healthcare and drawing legal challenges over a campaign bus. Businessman Danny Tarkanian never managed to get any buzz for his own race, which seemed to be grounded entirely in the fact that his father had coached the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels.

Still, it says a lot that given a choice between Angle and the Republican who endorsed chickens for healthcare, Reid’s team preferred Angle. (And in fact, his statement on the race didn’t even mention his opponent, as he aimed for the high road instead.) Reid’s performance in poll after poll in Nevada has been abysmal, with barely a third of voters approving of the way he does his job. But aides have said for months that the race would sharpen once it settled into a contest between Reid and an actual opponent. And Angle’s record, which didn’t get much exposure during the GOP primary, gives them some good ammunition to work with.

Announcing her campaign last year, Angle told the Reno Gazette-Journal that families with two working parents “dilute” healthcare and retirement benefits. Unlike many politicians in Nevada, she’s fine with the idea of trucking nuclear waste into the state to bury it at Yucca Mountain. In the state Assembly, she once voted against tougher penalties for repeat drunk driving offenders — but also said alcohol should be illegal. She says custodial work is something “Americans just won’t do.”

Besides Reid, some very conservative people were pleased with the results Tuesday, too. Angle’s win is another victory for the Club for Growth, the rabidly anti-tax (and, essentially, anti-government) group that endorsed her, as well as Utah Republican Mike Lee, who knocked off Sen. Bob Bennett last month. The Tea Party Express, an Astroturf group that held a big rally in Reid’s hometown in March, claimed another win, too; they spent millions of dollars supporting Angle, helping her offset Lowden’s stronger fundraising.

National Republicans tried to put a brave face on the news. “With Sharron Angle’s nomination today, I am confident that this seat will be a prime pick-up opportunity for our party in November,” GOP Senate campaign chief John Cornyn, R-Texas, said in a statement. “Sharron Angle has earned Nevada’s trust and respect through her long record of public service as a teacher, school board member, businesswoman, and state assemblywoman.” Michael Steele chimed in, too, with a promise of financial resources for the various GOP candidates in the state.

Angle will need a lot of  financial help against Reid. Last month, Reid reported having $9 million in the bank — compared to Angle’s $138,000. That can pay for a lot of ads about banning booze.

Ever since the Tea Party arrived on the scene last year, Republicans have been happy to ride along with its nutty members and their eccentric ideas. Just about all the energy in the GOP, after all, comes from Tea Party anger. Angle’s win Tuesday, though — and Rand Paul’s, in Kentucky — might represent the flip side of that energy.

Could she still win in the fall? Sure. Very few incumbents recover from political situations like Reid’s. But by nominating the candidate sitting farthest out on the right wing fringe, the GOP base — and especially the Tea Party chunk of it — may have thrown Reid a lifeline.