Baseball
BP nailed the ’08 Rays — in ’05
Baseball Prospectus sized up Tampa Bay three years ago and figured the team was three years away.
I was looking at back issues of the Baseball Prospectus annual Monday to research the item on former Tampa Bay general manager Chuck LaMar, and I was impressed by the prescience of the 2005 edition about the artists formerly known as Devil Rays, which I thought I’d share with you.
Things were looking up for the Devil Rays following the 2004 season, when they’d gone 70-91, which stood as their best record and only non-cellar finish until this year.
The Baseball Prospectus chapter on the team detailed the scouting and development success stories of Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Jorge Cantu, B.J. Upton and Delmon Young, as well as the other side, busts such as Dewon Brazelton and, at the time, drug washout Josh Hamilton.
“Now is the time for patience,” the book said. “The window of opportunity for the Rays to make the playoffs is not yet open … [But] by 2008, the baby Rays currently on the field will be just entering their primes: Baldelli and Crawford will be 26, Cantu 25, Upton and Young still youngsters at 23 and 22. Aubrey Huff will be the grand old man at 31, still likely to be a prime year for a player with his skill set, though he probably will no longer be a Ray.”
Pretty good. Crawford and Upton are a big part of the Rays’ success, while Baldelli has struggled with injuries and a medical condition. Cantu had a solid first full season in ’05, fell off a cliff in ’06 and was shipped to Cincinnati in a minor deadline deal in ’07. He found his stroke there and reinvented himself as a slugging third baseman for Florida this year. Young was traded to Minnesota last off-season for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Huff, at 31, just finished his best season. For Baltimore.
The book then goes on at some length about the Rays needing to find some pitching to go with all these talented young position players, and criticizes the team for rushing these kids to the big leagues, which started their free-agency clocks and meant they’d become expensive sooner rather than later, which would be a problem for the cash-strapped franchise.
“With all that said,” Baseball Prospectus concluded, “a championship run in 2007-08 is possible.”
That’s pretty good prospectin’.
Of course, I also looked elsewhere in that 2005 book. Here’s the thumbnail prediction for that season’s Chicago White Sox: “Their opportunity has passed; the constant exodus of talent will relegate this team to second-tier status.” The White Sox won the World Series that year.
Two years later Baseball Prospectus made its most famous prediction by saying the White Sox, 90-game winners in 2006, would go 72-90. They did.
It’s an up-and-down game, that seeing the future.
King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr More King Kaufman.
Guillen’s pro-Castro candor
The Miami Marlins' manager is lucky to get a suspension. Not so long ago, he might have received a car bomb.
A contrite Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen gestures at a news conference on Tuesday. (Credit: AP/Lynne Sladky) There’s not much reason to doubt that baseball manager Ozzie Guillen admires Fidel Castro. He said so five years ago in an interview with Men’s Journal. When asked to name the toughest man he knew, Guillen replied, “Fidel Castro. He’s a bull—- dictator and everybody’s against him, and he still survives, has power. Still has a country behind him. Everywhere he goes, they roll out the red carpet. I don’t admire his philosophy; I admire him.’’
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Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday). More Jefferson Morley.
The year of the baseball book
From a treatise on Yankee hating to a "people's history," a number of great books covered the national pastime
A simple and unsettling calculation reveals to me that this year marks the 40th anniversary of my coming to New England and setting up shop as a Red Sox fan. How innocent I was in that distant day: how little I understood the faces etched with pain, the haunted eyes, the lips that writhed in uttering “Yankees.” It did not take long to become afflicted by the same symptoms and, in my time here, certain Yankee-related events have been so traumatic that they are best designated by numerals alone: 1978 and 2003. The ALCS of 2004 (when the Red Sox came from a 0-3 game deficit to vanquish the evil ones) changed the region’s mental landscape — as, of course, did the subsequent World Championship(s). Since then, Yankee hating has become more of a pleasant pastime than a crippling mental and spiritual disorder.
Continue Reading CloseThe Marlins’ bizarre new look
The team's revamped logo involves a whimsical rainbow swoosh. The effect is anything but intimidating
So far the biggest story to come out of baseball’s early off-season isn’t some splashy free agent signing or the abrupt retirement of St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, but that of the logo and uniform redesign of the Florida Marlins. The new look was officially announced on Friday, and if you haven’t seen them already, you might not believe your eyes. In fact, when some of the images of the new logo were leaked there was such shock and disbelief by the baseball world, most people assumed it was a farce, calling the look everything from “Hawaiian Shaved Ice” to “Push-up Pop” to “Rainbow Bright.”
Continue Reading CloseExonerating Bill Buckner
25 years after the Red Sox infielder's infamous World Series error, we look at what really happened that October
(Credit: AP) Bill Buckner’s error in the 1986 World Series – 25 years ago today, a day of infamy for Red Sox fans — is one of the two most famous plays in World Series history. (Willie Mays’ catch in the 1954 fall classic is the other.)
Like Mays’ over-the-shoulder catch, Buckner’s booboo is entrenched in American folklore. Jimmy Fallon’s Red Sox fanatic in “Fever Pitch,” distraught over breaking up with his girlfriend, watches Buckner’s play over and over on his VCR. During congressional hearings in 2008, U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., called former Treasury Secretary John Snow, then-SEC chief Christopher Cox and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan “three Bill Buckners.” On “Curb Your Enthusiasm” this season, Larry David loses a softball game when a ball rolls between his legs; his coach screams, “You Buckner-ed me!”
Continue Reading CloseAllen Barra's next book is "Mickey and Willie -- The Parallel Lives of Baseball's Golden Age," from Crown. More Allen Barra.
What baseball tells us about racism
Most home-plate umpires are white -- and they seem to be hurting the careers of minority pitchers
Despite recent odes to “post-racial” sensibilities, persistent racial wage and unemployment gaps show that prejudice is alive and well in America. Nonetheless, that truism is often angrily denied or willfully ignored in our society, in part, because prejudice is so much more difficult to recognize on a day-to-day basis. As opposed to the Jim Crow era of white hoods and lynch mobs, 21st century American bigotry is now more often an unseen crime of the subtle and the reflexive — and the crime scene tends to be the shadowy nuances of hiring decisions, performance evaluations and plausible deniability.
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David Sirota is a best-selling author of the new book "Back to Our Future: How the 1980s Explain the World We Live In Now." He hosts the morning show on AM760 in Colorado. E-mail him at ds@davidsirota.com, follow him on Twitter @davidsirota or visit his website at www.davidsirota.com. More David Sirota.
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