Baseball
Mussina’s magic number
If the retiring Yankee doesn't make the Hall of Fame, it shouldn't be because he failed to win 300 games.
New York Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina announced his retirement Thursday. The announcement had been expected, so we’re already seeing a preview of what five years from now will be a particularly dumb debate about whether he’s a Hall of Famer.
A reasonable and interesting debate could be staged about whether Mussina deserves to go to Cooperstown. In Mussina’s favor would be his sustained excellence and the various statistical indications that he’s very much in the class of Hall of Famers such as Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry and Early Wynn.
Working against him would be his lack of a dominant peak and the argument that guys like Don Sutton really shouldn’t be Hall of Famers, which is pretty much the same argument. A better way to put it: The Hall of Fame is getting too big. It’s meant to honor the great, not the very good.
Much as I hate to say nice things about a Stanford guy, I think Mussina’s a Hall of Famer, but I understand and respect those arguments. But the real argument against Mussina going to Cooperstown is going to be dumber than that. It’s going to be about how he didn’t win 300 games.
Oh, people will talk about the lack of the dominant peak. They might even talk about how Don Sutton doesn’t belong. But they wouldn’t be saying any of it if Mussina had just won 300 games instead of 270. They’d be talking about how he’s a sure-fire Hall of Famer, kind of like how people have talked about Tom Glavine — a pitcher very much in Mussina’s class — since he won his 300th/
I know what you’re going to say. You’re going to point out that Don Sutton won 310 games and people still say he doesn’t belong in the Hall. Actually, he won 324 but I get your point.
But the anti-Sutton crowd likes to point out that he pitched for 324 years. Whole centuries went by with Sutton only winning five or six games. Anybody can win 324 games if they just hang on long enough. This is a dumb argument too — short version: You have to be really, really good to hang on that long — but we’re digressing about Don Sutton here.
Sutton’s usually an exception to the 300 wins-as-automatic argument, which is the argument that’s kept Bert Blyleven out of the Hall of Fame. Blyleven, pitching mostly for lousy teams, won 287 games. In every other way, he was a Hall of Famer, but he’s been stiffed so far, mostly because his teammates didn’t score enough runs.
The argument that 300 wins shouldn’t be a disqualifier for Mussina is different than the one for Blyleven. Mussina, unlike Blyleven, pitched for a lot of good teams. He was on a division winner, a wild-card team and an 89-win third-place team in Baltimore, and while he never played for a World Series winner in New York, he did pitch on seven straight division champs and a wild-card winner.
But he also spent his entire career in the era of the five-man rotation, unlike everyone else mentioned so far. He lost seven or eight starts a year compared to the men who were asked to pitch every fourth day. We could argue about how pitchers today are a bunch of wimps or whatever, but Mussina had no control over how pitching staffs were deployed during his career. He was a horse. From his age 26 through his age 34 seasons, he threw at least 200 innings every year.
Mussina got his 270 wins in 536 starts, meaning he got a W in 50.4 percent of them. Sutton got 321 wins — he won three as a reliever — in 756 starts, which was 42.4 percent. Tom Seaver, who pitched on a lot of bad teams and a few good ones, got 310 wins in 647 starts, 47.9 percent. Perry won 44.2 percent of his starts.
If Mussina had won at the same rate in Seaver’s 647 starts, he’d have retired with 326 wins. That would have tied him with Eddie Plank for 13th all time, and not only would no one have suggested he didn’t belong in the Hall, no one would have dismissed the gaudy win total because he played on a lot of winners. With Sutton’s 756 starts — including the one during the Battle of Bunker Hill — Mussina would have won 381, more than anyone but Cy Young and Walter Johnson.
Of course, pitching every fourth day, he might have blown out his arm in 1992 and retired with 11 wins. We’re talking about silly stuff here.
But so is talking about 300 wins. Today’s starters only get the ball a little more than 80 percent as often as yesterday’s. Yeah, they have better medical care and aren’t asked to complete games anymore, but they also have to face real hitters from the top to the bottom of opposing lineups, which was not true in earlier eras.
If 300 wins used to be your magic Hall of Fame number, you need to lower it. I’m not a big fan of magic numbers but I’d go with something like 250, though that would put Jamie Moyer four wins from immortality, which doesn’t feel right.
It would get Mussina in, though. And Blyleven, who was even better.
King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr More King Kaufman.
Guillen’s pro-Castro candor
The Miami Marlins' manager is lucky to get a suspension. Not so long ago, he might have received a car bomb.
A contrite Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen gestures at a news conference on Tuesday. (Credit: AP/Lynne Sladky) There’s not much reason to doubt that baseball manager Ozzie Guillen admires Fidel Castro. He said so five years ago in an interview with Men’s Journal. When asked to name the toughest man he knew, Guillen replied, “Fidel Castro. He’s a bull—- dictator and everybody’s against him, and he still survives, has power. Still has a country behind him. Everywhere he goes, they roll out the red carpet. I don’t admire his philosophy; I admire him.’’
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Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday). More Jefferson Morley.
The year of the baseball book
From a treatise on Yankee hating to a "people's history," a number of great books covered the national pastime
A simple and unsettling calculation reveals to me that this year marks the 40th anniversary of my coming to New England and setting up shop as a Red Sox fan. How innocent I was in that distant day: how little I understood the faces etched with pain, the haunted eyes, the lips that writhed in uttering “Yankees.” It did not take long to become afflicted by the same symptoms and, in my time here, certain Yankee-related events have been so traumatic that they are best designated by numerals alone: 1978 and 2003. The ALCS of 2004 (when the Red Sox came from a 0-3 game deficit to vanquish the evil ones) changed the region’s mental landscape — as, of course, did the subsequent World Championship(s). Since then, Yankee hating has become more of a pleasant pastime than a crippling mental and spiritual disorder.
Continue Reading CloseThe Marlins’ bizarre new look
The team's revamped logo involves a whimsical rainbow swoosh. The effect is anything but intimidating
So far the biggest story to come out of baseball’s early off-season isn’t some splashy free agent signing or the abrupt retirement of St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, but that of the logo and uniform redesign of the Florida Marlins. The new look was officially announced on Friday, and if you haven’t seen them already, you might not believe your eyes. In fact, when some of the images of the new logo were leaked there was such shock and disbelief by the baseball world, most people assumed it was a farce, calling the look everything from “Hawaiian Shaved Ice” to “Push-up Pop” to “Rainbow Bright.”
Continue Reading CloseExonerating Bill Buckner
25 years after the Red Sox infielder's infamous World Series error, we look at what really happened that October
(Credit: AP) Bill Buckner’s error in the 1986 World Series – 25 years ago today, a day of infamy for Red Sox fans — is one of the two most famous plays in World Series history. (Willie Mays’ catch in the 1954 fall classic is the other.)
Like Mays’ over-the-shoulder catch, Buckner’s booboo is entrenched in American folklore. Jimmy Fallon’s Red Sox fanatic in “Fever Pitch,” distraught over breaking up with his girlfriend, watches Buckner’s play over and over on his VCR. During congressional hearings in 2008, U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., called former Treasury Secretary John Snow, then-SEC chief Christopher Cox and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan “three Bill Buckners.” On “Curb Your Enthusiasm” this season, Larry David loses a softball game when a ball rolls between his legs; his coach screams, “You Buckner-ed me!”
Continue Reading CloseAllen Barra's next book is "Mickey and Willie -- The Parallel Lives of Baseball's Golden Age," from Crown. More Allen Barra.
What baseball tells us about racism
Most home-plate umpires are white -- and they seem to be hurting the careers of minority pitchers
Despite recent odes to “post-racial” sensibilities, persistent racial wage and unemployment gaps show that prejudice is alive and well in America. Nonetheless, that truism is often angrily denied or willfully ignored in our society, in part, because prejudice is so much more difficult to recognize on a day-to-day basis. As opposed to the Jim Crow era of white hoods and lynch mobs, 21st century American bigotry is now more often an unseen crime of the subtle and the reflexive — and the crime scene tends to be the shadowy nuances of hiring decisions, performance evaluations and plausible deniability.
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David Sirota is a best-selling author of the new book "Back to Our Future: How the 1980s Explain the World We Live In Now." He hosts the morning show on AM760 in Colorado. E-mail him at ds@davidsirota.com, follow him on Twitter @davidsirota or visit his website at www.davidsirota.com. More David Sirota.
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