The lesson of 1937: Stimulate now, or pay later
Inflation hawks want Obama to cut off the spigot. Why aren't they focusing on the real deficit-buster: Healthcare?
Noam Scheiber writes that Michael Phillips’ Wall Street Journal article, “Policy Makers Seek to Learn From 1937′s Stalled Comeback” is “useful.” I’m not so sure. Let’s look at the first sentence.
A few months ago, Obama administration officials were sounding the alarm about another 1929. These days, it’s 1937 that has them in a sweat.
Well, no. A few months ago, Obama administration officials were already worried about repeating the mistakes made by FDR, the Fed, and Congress in 1937, when premature monetary and fiscal contraction strangled a nascent recovery from the Great Depression and precipitated a deep recession. On June 18, Christina Romer, chair of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, authored a piece in the Economist that spelled out the problem in detail: “The Lessons of 1937.”
Granted, it is impressive how quickly we’ve moved from worrying about reliving the Great Depression to fearing that we might shortcut our recovery from the worst financial crisis since the Depression. But the Obama administration has been consistent from very early on in warning that it would be foolish to precipitously change course, guillotine the stimulus, and start fighting inflation while unemployment is still rising and consumers are still hoarding cash. In today’s New York Times, Cornell economist Robert Frank makes an excellent case for why, if anything, the federal government needs to be shoveling more cash to local and state governments, not less.
In opposition, the Wall Street Journal quotes inflation hawk Allan Meltzer, a political economist at Carnegie Mellon University.
Ms. Romer is “sending the absolutely wrong message – that we can’t do anything to worry about inflation until the recovery is locked in because of concern for unemployment … The reason economists and central bankers have two eyes is so they can do two things at once.”
(Really? Our possession of two eyes enables multitasking? Seems to me that if you look at two different things with your two eyes at the same time you get cross-eyed, lose focus, and spark a splitting headache.)
The inflation hawks would have a better case if inflation was actually threatening, or if the bond-market vigilantes were shunning Treasuries. But it’s not, and they are not, while at the same time, real downside pressures on the economy remain strong. (For an impressive dismantling of last Friday’s rosy report from the NAR on existing home sales, which pushed stock market indices to new heights for 2009, see the Big Picture.)
Yes, in the long run, big deficits are a problem, though, as Paul Krugman observes in his blog today, “we’re not looking at something inconceivable, impossible to deal with.” But a double-dip recession is also a big problem, and we need to be constantly mindful of the fact that economically stimulative deficit spending now can reduce deficits later, thus avoiding the necessity of painful budget-balancing measures, whether they be tax increases or spending cuts or both.
Robert Frank:
More important, there are good reasons for believing that stimulus spending will make people’s future tax payments lower, not higher. Yes, government borrowing adds to the national debt. But if the stimulus also hastens the downturn’s end, it will accelerate the growth of future incomes and tax revenue. In that case, the net effect would be to reduce future taxes, compared with what they would have been without the stimulus.
Finally, after rereading Romer’s cogent analysis of 1937 in the Economist, I am reminded of one healthcare-reform-related point that we have completely lost sight of as we get distracted by the big lies about death panels.
Romer:
The fundamental source of long-run deficits is rising health-care expenditures. By coupling the expansion of coverage with reforms that significantly slow the growth of health-care costs, we can dramatically improve the long-run fiscal situation without tightening prematurely.
Where are all the inflation hawks in the healthcare debate? Healthcare costs have been rising at a much faster rate than inflation for decades. If we are seriously concerned about dealing with long-term deficits and the economic security of Americans, healthcare reform is the critical issue. And you don’t need to go all the way back to 1937 to figure that out.
Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
A farewell to How the World Works
Coverage of politics, the economy, and globalization will continue, but the branded blog will not
Not quite six years ago, Salon encouraged me to launch How the World Works, a hybrid blog/column originally envisioned as “a conversation about globalization.” Some umpteen zillion posts later, the experiment is coming to an end, as part of larger changes at Salon you’ll be hearing about soon.
No, I’m not going anywhere, and yes, I’ll still be writing about most of the same things I currently cover (though maybe with a little bit less emphasis on Washington horse-race politics). There are interesting projects in the works, some of which will incorporate more honest-to-goodness reporting than I’ve been doing for a while. There’ll still be an RSS feed for everything I write, but it’ll be hooked to my byline rather than the title “How the World Works.”
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Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
Operation treason?
Why markets are tanking: The Fed's new plan admits the economy is in trouble but doesn't come close to fixing it
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on Enhanced Oversight After the Financial Crisis: The Wall Street Reform Act at One Year on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 21, 2011. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS BUSINESS HEADSHOT)(Credit: © Yuri Gripas / Reuters) If the stock market reaction is any indicator, the early reviews of Ben Bernanke’s latest scheme to juice the economy, “Operation Twist,” are negative. At 1 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones industrial average was down nearly 360 points.
Deciphering investor psychology is never straightforward, and particularly so recently, when there are so many potential reasons for fear and panic: our amazingly dysfunctional U.S. Congress, the ongoing European drama, and the steady drumbeat of negative economic indicators. But today’s tremors can be tied to the Fed’s announcements on Wednesday fairly easily.
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Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
Facebook’s enraging status update
The social media network annoys its users, again, with a confusing revamp. There must be an agenda here, somewhere
Like, oh, around 750 million other users of Facebook, I logged on to the world’s biggest social media network this morning and was immediately annoyed. Facebook had changed its user interface, again. Gone was the “Most Recent” button, which allowed users to see what their friends have posted in a simple, straightforward, chronological order. Now Facebook was indulging, again, in outright effrontery: employing its own secret algorithmic sauce to highlight what it considered the most important “top stories,” while mixing in other recent posts far below.
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Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
Does Google deserve the Microsoft treatment?
The search engine giant is feeling the antitrust heat. Not all of it is justified -- but some is
Eric Schmidt Here is what happens when one company controls 40 percent of the $30 billion U.S. online advertising market and 65 percent of online search. The knives come out — and they’re sharp.
It’s been a long year for Google. In February, European antitrust regulators launched an investigation into whether Google was using its search results to privilege its own services over those of competitors. In June, the Federal Trade Commission started looking into whether Google’s relationship with handset manufacturers using the Android operating system improperly promoted Google search. In August, Texas’s state attorney general joined the fun. And on Wednesday, Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee’s subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition, and Consumer Rights. The name of the hearing: “The Power of Google: Serving Consumers or Threatening Competition?”
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Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
Jennifer Granholm’s plan to fix America
The former Michigan governor bears globalization's worst scars, but still itches for a fight. Watch out, Rick Perry
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm speaks during a Ford Motor Company news conference at the Ford Van Dyke Transmission Plant in Sterling Heights, Mich., Monday, Oct. 25, 2010. Ford said Monday it will invest $850 million in several Detroit-area plants to build its new six-speed transmissions and improve facilities. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)(Credit: Paul Sancya) Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Michigan, has a story she likes to tell about the Chinese. Granholm visited China in March. At one meet-and-greet, a Chinese official buttonholed her and asked when the U.S. was going to implement a national energy policy. By her own account, Granholm hemmed and hawed, mentioning the rise of the Tea Party and the inability of the current Congress “to get its act together.”
Granholm and I are sitting in a corner office of a building on the University of California at Berkeley campus, where Granholm is spending a year of “sabbatical.” She leans over her desk, looks me in the eye, and demonstrates how the the Chinese official rubbed his hands together like a kid unable to contain his glee right before unwrapping Christmas presents. “‘Take your time,’ he tells me,” says Granholm. “‘Take your time.’”
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Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
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