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Sunday, Apr 18, 2010 6:01 PM UTC2010-04-18T18:01:00Zl, M j, Y g:i A T

The Republicans’ 2012 problem

November 2010 is looking awfully good for the GOP. But November 2012? Not so much

Mike Pence

Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind. walks onstage prior to addressing to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, Friday, Feb. 19, 2010. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen) (Credit: Cliff Owen)

Talk to most Democratic activists, and they’ll concede that a Republican takeover of the House this fall is entirely possible. Some will even contemplate the nightmare scenario of losing the Senate, though that remains arithmetically improbable. But they’ll cheer right up when talk moves to 2012.

The reasons for this midrange optimism are many. Though President Obama’s approval ratings are nowhere near the post-inaugural peak they reached early last year, he remains the most popular figure in national politics. There’s also the possibility that the economy will have improved enough by 2012 to sweeten the country’s mood.

More to the point, smart Democrats understand that one of their chief liabilities right now figures to be an asset in 2012: the shape of the electorate. Turnout in midterm elections invariably skews toward older and whiter voters. Yet Obama’s 2008 performance varied inversely with age categories and also depended on a historic ethnic-minority turnout that isn’t about to be repeated in a midterm election. Add in the ripe targets, particularly in the House, created by two straight boffo Democratic cycles, and it should have been clear the very day after the 2008 elections that Democrats were cruising for a bruising in 2010 — even before the economy sank to its ultimate depths and well before the first Tea Party protest.

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Ed Kilgore is the managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, and an online columnist for The New Republic.   More Ed Kilgore

Wednesday, Feb 15, 2012 9:39 PM UTC2012-02-15T21:39:00Zl, M j, Y g:i A T

Santorum tests positive and negative

In his new TV ads, the Republican contender tries to be upbeat and nice, while splattering mud on Mitt

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Rick Santorum and mud

A Rick Santorum cut-out, with "mud"  (Credit: Rick Santorum/YouTube)

Rick Santorum is definitely going to be our next president, so we should probably get to know him a little better, as a country. Thankfully, he’s introducing himself, with TV advertisements. (Or Web videos that might run on TV somewhere but are partially designed to garner free pickup from blogs and websites.)

Here is Santorum’s “positive” ad, in which we learn that lots of people have said nice things about him in the past.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon. Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene  More Alex Pareene

Tuesday, Feb 14, 2012 1:00 PM UTC2012-02-14T13:00:00Zl, M j, Y g:i A T

The right’s lost causes

From the culture war to foreign policy, conservatives have been defeated on every front

Lori Campbell (L) and Maja Roble, who are engaged, kiss at a celebration rally for Tuesday's ruling on Proposition 8 in West Hollywood, California February 7, 2012

Lori Campbell (L) and Maja Roble, who are engaged, kiss at a celebration rally for Tuesday's ruling on Proposition 8 in West Hollywood, California February 7, 2012  (Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Alcorn)

American conservatives are deranged by anger — and why shouldn’t they be? For decades, they have been losing on multiple fronts. From the culture war to the welfare state to foreign policy, conservative initiatives have been rejected by the American people and repudiated by public policy. At most they have won a few battles while losing the war.

Consider what Pat Buchanan and other social conservatives called “the culture war” in the 1980s (after Bismarck’s Kulturkampf against the Catholic Church in 19th-century Imperial Germany). Even with a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, Roe v. Wade is in no danger of being overruled. The most that conservatives can do is back state-level initiatives like forcing pregnant women to view sonograms of fetuses — initiatives that are soon slapped down by the federal courts.

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Michael Lind’s new book, "Land of Promise: An Economic History of the United States", will be published in April and can be pre-ordered at Amazon.com.   More Michael Lind

Monday, Feb 13, 2012 9:52 PM UTC2012-02-13T21:52:00Zl, M j, Y g:i A T

No, Newt, don’t quit to make room for Santorum

Never, ever listen to the National Review

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Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum

Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum  (Credit: AP)

The National Review has attracted some attention today for publishing an editorial suggesting that Newt Gingrich abandon his presidential run in order to allow Rick Santorum to fly free and destroy Mitt Romney. (Ramesh Ponnuru contests the notion that the editorial calls on Gingrich to quit the race but “the proper course for him now is to endorse Santorum and exit” seems pretty unambiguous even if it’s prefaced with a reminder that Gingrich told Santorum to do the same thing last month.)

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon. Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene  More Alex Pareene

Thursday, Feb 9, 2012 9:20 PM UTC2012-02-09T21:20:00Zl, M j, Y g:i A T

CPAC welcomes white nationalists

Three noted white supremacy enthusiasts to host anti-diversity panel at conservative conference

Sen. Marco Rubio addresses the American Conservative Union's annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, February 9, 2012.

Sen. Marco Rubio addresses the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, Feb. 9, 2012.  (Credit: Jonathan Ernst / Reuters)

CPAC is here, so it’s time for everyone’s annual look at the psychos invited to the premier conservative event of the year, and those unfortunate enough to have been excluded.

GOProud, the gay Republican group that was founded because the Log Cabin Republicans were considered too concerned about gay civil rights and not sufficiently focused on “fiscal issues,” is not invited this year, because they are too “aggressive” about being gay, which made Jim DeMint uncomfortable.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon. Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene  More Alex Pareene

Tuesday, Feb 7, 2012 9:05 PM UTC2012-02-07T21:05:00Zl, M j, Y g:i A T

Santorum surges as culture wars heat up

Is the far-right Catholic candidate benefiting from a conservative fixation on gay marriage and contraception?

Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum  (Credit: AP)

Thrilling news, Americans! After today, we all have an excuse to pretend that Rick Santorum might win the Republican presidential nomination. And we will get to pretend this for weeks, or as long as he can pretend to have some sort of vaguely defined “momentum.”

After weeks of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich angrily hurling wads of third-party cash at one another, Republican voters have realized (for the second or third time) that Romney is an aloof job-destroying multimillionaire rentier and Newt Gingrich is an erratic narcissist scam artist. Being mostly ignored turned out pretty well for Rick Santorum, whose repellant bigoted sanctimony reads as righteous piety to the die-hard evangelicals and old cranks actually showing up to vote in these increasingly depressing Republican contests. And so, as Steve Kornacki writes, he’s the new not-Romney, and he’s poised to win Missouri or Minnesota or Colorado or some combination of the three today.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon. Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene  More Alex Pareene

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