SALON

Tuesday, Aug 17, 2010 4:40 PM UTC

Deval Patrick: Obama’s canary in the coal mine?

If the Massachusetts governor loses this fall, will it be an omen for the president in 2012?

By

Topics: 2010 Elections, War Room, 2012 Elections, Barack Obama, Deval Patrick,

Deval Patrick: Obama's canary in the coal mine?President Barack Obama and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick

It’s understandable why the Washington Post would write that Deval Patrick’s reelection campaign this fall is  ”a test case” for Barack Obama’s in 2012.

After all, the two men attained sudden national prominence at roughly the same time a few years ago, each sounding the same themes of hope, change and unity and each activating large grass-roots armies. Obama was only the third African-American to win a Senate seat when he was elected in 2004, while Patrick in 2006 became only the second African-American in history to win a governorship. And the political trajectory of Obama’s first term as president (at least so far) matches up with Patrick’s: enormous expectations and high early approval ratings that quickly gave way to popular discontent and middling poll numbers.

Patrick, of course, is two years farther along than Obama, which means he’s facing the voters this fall. Hence, the “test case” theme that you can expect to hear a lot about this fall.  As the Post noted today, “Many of the top strategists in Obama’s political circle are helping to orchestrate Patrick’s reelection campaign, and they are looking to his contest for clues to what might work for the president in 2012.” Or, as Democratic strategist Mary Ann Marsh put it to Politico a few months back, if Patrick loses, “many people would say, ‘This is the way to try to beat Barack Obama in 2012.’”

There’s a problem with this, though: Patrick is running in a midterm election year in which the political climate — thanks in no small part to the economy — is poisoned against his party. His example will only really be telling if a similar climate prevails in ’12.

This doesn’t mean that there aren’t plenty of non-national factors that have contributed to Patrick’s predicament. He’s shot himself in the foot several times. And governors are simply more liberated from national partisan tides than, say, senators. During the Gingrich/Bush era in Washington (1995-2009) voters in Massachusetts were supremely hostile to GOP candidates for federal office. In the first election after the ’94 GOP revolution, the state’s two Republican congressmen — Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen — were voted out, and the Bay State hasn’t sent a Republican to the House since then. But in that same period, the state elected two Republican governors, Argeo “Paul” Cellucci and Mitt Romney. In other words, Patrick won’t just be a victim of the national climate if he loses in November.

Still, the national climate, particularly when it’s slanted so strongly against one party, does loom large in gubernatorial races. It’s no coincidence, for instance, that Romney’s 2002 win came in a Republican year — one that saw GOP governors elected in blue states like Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland and Hawaii. There were individual factors in all of those races, yes, but the national mood was key to making swing voters in those states receptive to the GOP candidates — and putting them over the top. Similarly, it’s no coincidence that the record-shattering 71 percent that Republican William Weld posted in his 1994 gubernatorial reelection came in the year of the GOP revolution. Weld would have won in any year, yes, but not necessarily by that margin. With swing voters, even in blue states like Massachusetts, far more receptive to voting for Republican candidates than they’ve been in a long time this year, the national climate could swing numerous close gubernatorial contests — like Massachusetts’ — to the GOP.

But the idea that that means much for ’12 is pretty hard to swallow. It’s worth remembering that 15 states that elected Republican governors in 1994 ended up voting for Bill Clinton in 1996. If Patrick loses a close race this fall, it will be possible to connect the outcome to voters’ frustration with Obama and the Democrats, which is driven by the economy.  But all that will tell us about ’12 is what we’ve known all along: that if the economy is still weak then, Obama will be in trouble.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
    Credit: AP/LM Otero

  • Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
    Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

  • A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
    Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher

  • Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
    Credit: AP/Molly Riley

  • Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
    Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite

  • Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
    Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster

  • O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
    Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid

  • Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
    Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield

  • When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
    Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin

  • A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
    Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 10 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

vote
Kaitlyn Hunt refuses plea offer, will go to court over high school relationship - The 18-year-old rejected a deal that would have labeled her a sex offender and placed her under house arrest
175 points176 points | 124 comments
vote
Kaitlyn Hunt refuses plea offer, will go to court over high school relationship - The 18-year-old rejected a deal that would have labeled her a sex offender and placed her under house arrest
157 points158 points | 111 comments
vote
Ted Cruz against the world - How the Junior Senator is igniting the GOP civil war
77 points78 points | 21 comments
vote
Judge tells lesbian couple to separate or lose kids: "unmarried sexual relationships -- including straight ones – can be grounds for losing child custody"
26 points27 points | 3 comments
vote
Anonymous rallies behind Kaitlyn Hunt
25 points26 points | 20 comments

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: Chekhov's story mirrors Russia's own

Recommendations