Supreme Court
Tom Goldstein and the perils of conflict-plagued commentary
The ostensibly objective Supreme Court analyst is plagued with conflicts that produce unreliable analysis
Back in April, I wrote in detail about the glaring conflict infecting the Supreme Court nominee analysis of SCOTUSblog’s Tom Goldstein. Goldstein’s lucrative partnership at Akin, Gump — as has been true for his whole career — depends almost exclusively on aggressively promoting himself as a specialist in Supreme Court litigation (NBC is even developing a new entertainment show based on his career called “Tommy Supreme”). Therefore, quite unsurprisingly, he invariably takes the lead role in heaping obsequious praise on every nominee to the Court, while attacking and mocking all of the nominee’s critics as ideological extremists, so that when the nominee arrives on the Court and Goldstein appears before them, the new Justice is looking at his or her leading public champion. While he’s often presented as some sort of objective sage when it comes to Supreme Court nominees, the reality is that you wind Tom Goldstein up and he dutifully lavishes prospective Court nominees with the same set of embarrassingly reverent adjectives (“absolutely brilliant,” ”honorable,” “calls things straight”) while deriding critics with a slew of Broderian insult-clichés: they’re fringe, Unserious ideologues and extremists, etc. etc. Given how dependent he is on these Justices, why would anyone expect him to do anything else?
Today we have one particularly glaring example of how misleading his pretense to objectivity can be. One of the principal concerns expressed about Elena Kagan’s nomination was that, due to her extensive involvement as Solicitor General in numerous Obama administration policies and legal positions, she would end up recusing herself from an exceptionally high number of cases that came before the Supreme Court, leaving the Court stuck with a 4-4 deadlock and without any way to resolve cases. Those raising this concern pointed to the very high recusal rate for the last Solicitor General appointed to the Court, Thurgood Marshall. Progressives were deeply concerned about this because it would mean that they would be missing a Democratic-appointed vote on a slew of important cases, while people across the spectrum were concerned because a 4-4 vote means that lower court appellate decisions remain valid.
Goldstein, needless to say, found such concerns utterly unfounded and unfair. On April 18, he wrote a long and detailed analysis — which he vested with a ludicrous tone of mathematical certainty — in which he insisted that Kagan’s recusal rate would actually be quite normal, nothing unusual, and thus recusal concerns were baseless:
Commentators have recently asserted that if Elena Kagan were nominated, she would have to recuse herself from a large proportion of the Supreme Court’s merits docket over the course of the next two to three Terms. This recusal issue arises from an extrapolation from the large number of recusals by the last Solicitor General to transition to the Supreme Court, Thurgood Marshall. That extrapolation rests on an intuitive hypothesis, but part of the problem with the blogosphere is that hypothesis too often gets published as fact. It turns out that in reality the parallel between Kagan and Marshall is not sound for a few independent reasons that combine to significant effect.
In no particular order, Kagan would have far fewer recusals principally because (i) she would be appointed earlier in the year, (ii) the Court’s docket has fewer merits cases with the United States as a party, and (iii) a substantial amount of the time Marshall recused for reasons other than his service as Solicitor General. . . . .
In sum, I would expect a total of 13 recusals — 3 pending merits cases, 1 incoming merits amicus brief, 1 CVSG, 3 pending cert petitions, 2 pending briefs in opposition, and 3 appeal recommendations — if Elena Kagan were nominated on May 1. If the nomination occurred on May 15, it would be closer to 15. That is roughly one-fifth to one-sixth of the merits docket, nowhere near the number or proportion of cases in which Marshall recused himself. . . .
[Ed Whelan's] prior assertion and that of other commentators that she would be recused from a large number of cases is deeply flawed. This isn’t a hypothetical exercise: generally speaking, it’s possible to identify the precise cases in which she would be, or likely could be, recused. And the numbers are not particularly large.
So Goldstein mocked the idea that Kagan’s recusal rate would be anywhere near Marhsall’s, and — donning the voice of some sort of hyper-confident statisician (in contrast to those reckless screechers “in the blogosphere”) — insisted that she would recuse herself in exactly 13 cases, 15 at the most, for the entire first-year term, at a rate of ”roughly one-fifth to one-sixth of the merits docket.”
For the October, 2010 term, the Supreme Court has now accepted a total of 40 cases — just a portion of what it will accept for the first term — and look at what has happened with Kagan’s recusals, from The Wall Street Journal‘s Ashby Jones yesterday:
When President Obama nominated Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court in May, we and many others reported out that she’d likely have to recuse herself from a handful of cases for the upcoming term. . . .
But we never dreamed that Kagan would recuse herself from half the cases for the upcoming term. But it seems that’s where we are, at least for now. Kagan this week, in the words of National Law Journal reporter Tony Mauro, “quietly” recused herself from 10 more cases to be argued in the upcoming term. That brings the number of cases from which she’s recused herself to 21. As Mauro points out, that’s more than half of the 40 cases the court has so far agreed to hear. . . .
So what does this mean for the court? Unless and until a recusal contingency plan (like this one) is put into place, the court will be stuck with just eight justices in each of the cases.
In other words, the Supreme Court is just part of the way into the first term, and the number of Kagan’s recusals already significantly exceeds what Goldstein pronounced we could know more or less for certain would be the number for the entire term. And her more-than-50% rate of recusal thus far tracks Marshall’s recusal rate for his first term: the comparison Goldstein mocked as nothing but the reckless rantings from blogosphere ignoramuses. Ed Whelan — who was the target of Goldstein’s specific ire on the recusal issue and (along with me) generally derided as nothing but a blind, raving Internet ideologue for criticizing Kagan — takes a well-deserved victory lap here.
I seriously doubt Tom Goldstein will be embarrassed by being completely wrong here, notwithstanding the intemperate language he used to praise his views as the by-product of statistical certainty and to scorn the recusal concerns as nothing but the ill-informed recklessness that oozes from the blogosphere (someone should tell Goldstein what the last syllable of “SCOTUSblog” signifies). That’s because Goldstein’s objective here was fulfilled no matter how wrong he was: just as he did with John Roberts and Sam Alito, he served as Kagan’s most adoring defender. That’s probably a good thing to do for Goldstein’s law partnership at Akin Gump, but it’s not very good for those who end up subjected to Goldstein’s commentary, invariably presented in media venues as objective expertise when it is anything but that.
Follow Glenn Greenwald on Twitter: @ggreenwald. More Glenn Greenwald.
John Roberts’ Gilded Age SCOTUS
Jeffrey Toobin shows how the Citizens United ruling challenged a century of efforts to rein in corporate power
John Roberts (Credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) The most important revelation in Jeffrey Toobin’s 10,000-word New Yorker piece on Chief Justice John Roberts’ takedown of campaign finance laws in the Citizens United case is the extent to which modern conservatism is trying to restore the Gilded Age. That was a time when corporations had more rights than individuals, when a conservative Supreme Court did its best to protect those corporate rights, and wealth and corruption ran unchecked. Of course, we live in a neo-Gilded Age, when income inequality is more pronounced than at any time since the Great Depression, and the Roberts court’s decisions in the Citizens United case helps bring us all the way back to those bad old days.
Continue Reading CloseJoan Walsh is Salon's editor at large. More Joan Walsh.
Obama destroys Constitution with mild Supreme Court criticism
Conservatives and moderates declare SCOTUS-bashing to be "intimidation"
(Credit: AP) Ruth Marcus is unsettled. Maybe even queasy. There is probably some light nausea. What has her worried for the future of the nation, today? President Obama’s shameful, horrific, vicious attacks on those nice people in the Supreme Court.
Obama said that the court overturning Congress’ healthcare reform law would be a textbook example of “judicial activism” as “conservative commentators” define it: “that an unelected group of people would somehow overturn a duly constituted and passed law.” And hey, that seems like an eminently defensible and not particularly unsettling point! Conservatives made “judicial activism” into a talking point and rallying cry and defined it vaguely enough to encompass judges striking down basically any law or statute.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
Justices run amok: Fixing the Supreme Court
Judges on the right and left legislate from the bench. So why don't we just elect them?
Antonin Scalia, John Roberts and Clarence Thomas On Monday, we had another example of the Supreme Court’s ideological division: a 5-4 ruling, along partisan lines, giving police the right to conduct strip searches for any offense. This came on the heels of last week’s oral arguments before the Supreme Court about the constitutionality of the individual mandate provision of the Affordable Care Act, which led many observers to predict that the nation’s highest judicial body will strike down part or all of the controversial healthcare reform package. But the hearings were instructive in other ways. They showed once again that political partisanship is closely correlated to a justice’s view of the law. And they proved that the Supreme Court once again is functioning, not as a court, but as a third house of the federal legislature.
Continue Reading CloseMichael Lind’s new book, "Land of Promise: An Economic History of the United States", will be published in April and can be pre-ordered at Amazon.com. More Michael Lind.
Why I need Obamacare
I'm sick, and I will be for the rest of my life. Knowing I won't be denied the insurance I need matters
Supporters of health care reform stand in front of the Supreme Court in Washington, Wednesday, March 28, 2012, on the final day of arguments regarding the health care law signed by President Barack Obama. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)(Credit: AP) Dear healthy people,
It’s great that you’re deriving intellectual pleasure from debating Obamacare. I love that this theoretical dance you’re engaged in has no repercussions to you, a healthy individual. I would love to join you some evening for a spirited discussion on the pros and cons of healthcare reform. Maybe over a glass of wine? Heck — over two or three glasses of wine. I’d love to lean forward, my arched brows furrowed, my full lips purple with the stain of a good Zinfandel, and throw out statistics and well-crafted one-liners about the plight of the uninsured, the underinsured, the sick. Those poor, poor sick.
Continue Reading CloseCedar Burnett is a freelance writer and toddler wrangler living in Seattle. She is currently working on a book about living with ulcerative colitis. More Cedar Burnett.
The conservative grip on power
A ruthless GOP power grab, centered around the Supreme Court, has cemented conservative control in Washington
Clarence Thomas, George W. Bush and Antonin Scalia (Credit: AP) Writing in Salon, Natasha Lennard proposes that with the warm weather we can again expect the Occupy movement to shoot up. Arab Spring, American Spring. She’s right about one thing: Like in the decades before the Arab Spring, it has been a long, cold, American winter. In the 30 years since coming to power here, Republicans have used their initial ascent to power to seal themselves into office as tightly as the pharaohs. Smart commentators have noted how lawless the conservatives are in making substantive decisions, but that’s not the worst of it. The worst of it is how they use their tenure to make it increasingly impossible to oust them.
Continue Reading CloseLinda Hirshman is the author of “Victory: The Triumphant Gay Revolution,” forthcoming in June 2012. Follow her on Twitter @LindaHirshman1 More Linda Hirshman.
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