2010 Elections
Why are all of the popular Democrats suddenly in trouble?
The voters like them a lot more than their Republican foes, but they still might lose. Welcome to 2010
For perfectly rational reasons, it’s customary in political journalism to slap the adjective “popular” in front of the name of any officeholder who won his or her most recent election by a wide margin or who scores a high job approval rating (or both). The sentence in question typically reads something like this: “If popular Attorney General John Doe agrees to run, Democrats should be well-positioned to win the governorship.”
But this year is offering a powerful lesson in just how meaningless the “popular” descriptor can be — at least in the face of a ferocious partisan tide.
Take the case of Joe Manchin, whom the press has routinely referred to as “popular West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin.” And why shouldn’t they? Manchin was elected governor with 64 percent of the vote in 2004 and won a second term with 70 percent in 2008. And even as the recession has dragged down the approval rating of every governor, Manchin’s was measured recently at 59 percent — making him the second most popular governor in the country, according to PPP, which conducted the poll.
This apparent popularity is why Manchin was pronounced the near-certain winner when he jumped into the special election campaign to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd. In fact, Manchin was so confident in his own standing that he maneuvered to speed up the election, personally pleading with the state Legislature this summer to authorize a November election for the seat.
And his presence was enough to intimidate the state’s top Republican prospect, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (who is also often described as “popular” because of her double-digit reelection victories in a GOP-friendly district), out of running. When Capito declined to run, the GOP was stuck with John Raese, a businessman who has previously run and lost three statewide campaigns. The Manchin/Raese match-up seemed like an unqualified mismatch: Mr. Popularity vs. a three-time loser.
But here we are at the end of September, and two different polls put Raese in the lead. The newest, from Rasmussen, has him up by 2, 48 to 46 percent. The other, from PPP, has it at 46 to 43 percent for Raese. (This was the same PPP poll that also found Manchin to be the second most popular governor in the country.)
Nor is West Virginia the only state where this phenomenon is evident.
In Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal has been elected attorney general five times, consistently racking up job approval ratings that have long made him (seemingly) the most popular Democratic politician in the state. That status led to years of speculation about when he’d seek to cash in his popularity for a promotion to higher office — governor or the U.S. Senate. Over and over, he passed, but when Chris Dodd’s poll numbers became toxic last year, Democrats in and out of Connecticut looked to Blumenthal as their savior; replace Dodd with him for the 2010 election, and Dodd’s Senate seat would stay in their hands. Dodd relented last January and dropped out, clearing the field for Blumenthal.
But that’s not where the story ended. After slowly climbing for months, polls now show that Linda McMahon, the self-funding wrestling executive and Republican nominee, has now pulled into a statistical dead heat with Blumenthal. Mind you, the voters still think Blumenthal is doing a fine job as A.G.; his approval rating stands at an enviable 68 percent. And it’s not like the revelations about his possible embellishment of his Vietnam-era service are killing Blumenthal; he still fares better than McMahon on personal popularity. But his lead has still vanished.
New York might be another example of this. Andrew Cuomo’s approval rating as attorney general stands at 67 percent, but one poll last week showed his lead in the gubernatorial race over his Republican foe — Carl Paladino, a Buffalo developer with some significant baggage — dwindling to 6 points. (Although it should be noted that the Cuomo-Paladino polling has been all over the map; another poll released last week put Cuomo up 33 points, and a third showed him ahead by 19.)
It’s not that hard to see what’s going on here: The political climate is so poisoned against Democrats that swing voters are willing to side against them pretty much no matter what. All that matters to these voters is that the economy is bad, that it doesn’t seem to be improving, and that Democrats have complete control of Washington (and, in Cuomo’s case, that they run Albany, too). To these voters, the Republican Party’s sole function in this climate is as a protest vehicle. They don’t want to give Democrats any more power, so they’ll vote for Republicans.
Tellingly, the same poll that puts Blumenthal and McMahon in a near-tie also finds that McMahon’s supporters are roughly split on the question of whether they are motivated to vote for her or against Blumenthal. But by a 3-to-1 margin, Blumenthal’s backers say they are voting for him. There’s a lot of negative energy out there right now, and swing voters are overwhelmingly directing it at Democrats.
This is nothing new, obviously. The climate was just as poisoned against the GOP in 2008 and 2006. In those years, even popular-seeming Republicans found themselves struggling to survive — and many of them didn’t. Remember Jim Leach, the 15-term moderate Iowa Republican, who was blindsided on Election Day ’06?
What’s worth keeping in mind, though, is how shallow political popularity generally is. The tools that we use to define it — past election results and job approval ratings — aren’t nearly as meaningful as we think. Just look at Raese: He barely cracked 30 percent when he ran for the Senate in ’06, but now he might win. Raese hasn’t really changed since ’06, but the political climate sure has. We like to think that individual personalities and campaign strategy are major factors in determining election outcomes. But every so often, a year like 2010 comes along and reminds us that just about every politician — no matter how popular — is at the mercy of structural factors.
Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.
Is Nikki Haley’s book full of lies?
Supposed Romney running mate front-runner under fire for memoir distortions
Nikki Haley (Credit: Reuters/Eric Thayer) Hm. As Mitt Romney begins to seriously consider running mates, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley again finds herself under fire. This time, the State newspaper has taken her to task for twisting the truth in her memoir, “Can’t Is Not an Option.” (That is for real the title of her memoir.)
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
Voting, not OWS, will change America
A low progressive turnout in 2010 got us into this mess. We can't let that happen again
An Occupy Wall Street protester at a demonstration at Times Square on Oct. 15. (Credit: Reuters/Allison Joyce) Take a close and objective look at the angry demonstrators now gathered on Wall Street, and at similar protest encampments burgeoning from San Francisco to Madrid. What you see is not simply a vast expression of rage at the crisis enveloping the world of democracy.
The demonstrations also frame a fundamental contradiction – a profound source of strength that has been transformed into a disabling weakness.
They deserve enormous credit for drawing a global spotlight to the perpetrators of that crisis: a sinister cabal of financial scamsters and right-wing politicians, backed by the dubiously “grass-roots” electorate of the Tea Party. What almost no one, on the right or left alike, wants to talk about is that the cabal was empowered by the very people who are now denouncing it.
Continue Reading CloseKarl Rove begins general election campaign without pesky candidate
The GOP's most famous strategist doesn't need to wait for an actual nominee to begin the anonymously funded attack
(Credit: iStockphoto/Andrewyuu/AP/Salon) From the publisher who hates dealing with flaky authors to the football coach who dreams of his brilliant plays being run without unreliable players, high-powered professionals everywhere wish they could stop the fallible human element from interfering with their genius. Karl Rove, campaign strategist extraordinaire, is no different. How much easier it is to manage a campaign without a stupid candidate ruining everything by having an long-buried arrest record or saying something obscene into an open microphone! Thanks to Citizens United, Rove’s dream has come true: The candidate-less presidential campaign has begun.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
Blanche Lincoln joins conservative lobby in fight against EPA
After the party and the White House failed to save her Senate seat, the ostensible Democrat aids polluters
In this photo taken May 25, 2010, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., is interviewed at her campaign headquarters in Little Rock, Ark. In the home state of former President Bill Clinton, and elsewhere, party leaders and structures are being bypassed _ undermined, in some cases _ by free-agent candidates who declare their independence from the political establishment while aligning themselves with special interests. "This is an election like no other," says Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, a union-backed candidate who has forced Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln into a June 8 runoff. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)(Credit: AP) Last year, then-Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-Walmart) was facing a tough primary fight from a more liberal Democrat. With labor and progressive groups aligned against her, the White House and the Democratic Party jumped in to defend Lincoln. Bill Clinton himself campaigned for Lincoln, and the effort paid off: She lost to a Republican in the general election. And then she joined a right-wing interest group. And now she’s fighting the EPA’s plan to regulate greenhouse gases.
The National Federation of Independent Business is generally treated in the press as the official practically apolitical voice of American small business (and the press treats the word of “small business” with almost as much reverence as that of military generals) but it is, in fact, a conservative lobbying organization that has spent decades fighting for anti-labor, anti-environmental and anti-consumer policies, all in the name of protecting our cherished “independent businesses.”
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
Christine O’Donnell just walked off CNN because she was running late
Plus, the book-promoting election loser calls the president "a strapping young man"
Piers Morgan and Christine O'Donnell It seems pretty obvious that Christine O’Donnell “walking off” that CNN show hosted by the oleaginous talent show judge and former phone-hacker was a put-on, right? Not like it was “scripted,” per se, but it certainly wasn’t a spontaneous decision inspired by a particularly outrageous line of questioning. Anyone can come up with something anodyne and vague to say about gay marriage — the president does it all the time! — if one doesn’t feel like offering a decisive opinion. So Christine O’Donnell obviously left for other reasons. Publicity for her book? In part, probably. But was she also just … late for another appointment?
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
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