Are some nations too big to fail?
A look at why the world's major economies -- and not the emerging ones -- are drowning in debt
By David CaseTopics: GlobalPost, Great Recession, News
BOSTON — Debt. It’s nearly as old as civilization.
It’s a menace that has kept serfs poor and made kings rich, a trap that has ruined countless lives, yoking many into slavery, prostitution or debtors prison.
As recently as the 1970s in the eastern Himalayas of South Asia, a poor man’s debt for his daughter’s wedding would cast the young bride herself into harlotry, according to David Graeber’s fascinating new book, “Debt, The First 5,000 Years.” After the wedding night, she would spend a few months as the lender’s concubine. “Once he grew bored, [she'd] be sent off to some nearby timber camp, where she would have to spend the next year or two as a prostitute working off her father’s debt,” before returning to her husband.
Increasingly, however, an entirely different debtor profile has come to prominence: the governments of major economies.
The United States is by no means alone in confronting this problem. Despite the partisan outrage in Washington, America’s debt burden is actually comparatively manageable.
- The government of Japan, the world’s third largest economy, grapples with a debt load three times larger than America’s, relative to the country’s annual output. Tokyo’s debt stands at 225 percent of gross domestic product; Washington’s is less than 70 percent, although it’s rising at a relatively fast pace.
- Italy — the tenth largest economy in the world — has a public debt burden nearly twice the size of America’s.
- Greece, a tiny country of under 11 million people, owes nearly half a trillion dollars, in excess of 140 percent of its gross domestic product, according to Eurostat.
In the 1980s, it was emerging countries like Argentina, Mexico and the Philippines that struggled with unsustainable debt loads. In the 1990s, the over-leveraged included Russia and the go-go economies of East Asia.
Those days are gone, however. Investors are increasingly turning to emerging countries as less risky alternatives.
Consider a list of the 20 countries with the most onerous debt loads — exceeding 75 percent of gross domestic product. Many rank among the richest, in terms of the relative income and living standards of their residents. Ten of these top 20 are members of either the European Union or the G20 — the latter, ostensibly, a group of the most powerful economies.
Of course, the top 20 most indebted include stalwart basket cases such as Zimbabwe (fourth most indebted, at 149 percent of GDP) Jamaica (seventh) and Sudan (12th). But they share that dubious honor with Italy (eighth), Singapore (ninth) and Belgium (tenth). Even the “rich” governments expected to pick up the tab for the euro zone’s debt crises make the ignominious list: France (14th) and Germany (19th). And Japan — viewed a quarter century ago as an unstoppable heavyweight — tops the list by a long shot.
Even China is beginning to suffer from debt worries. While the government’s official public debt is a modest 17.5 percent, a closer look paints a grimmer picture.
As a Communist country, government-owned businesses account for the bulk of the economy. Those companies’ debts are ultimately the responsibility of the central government. “If you count all of these liabilities, then you get to an extremely high number, something like 150 percent of the Chinese gross domestic product, or more,” says Victor Shih, a political economist at Northwestern University. Shih also notes that by keeping growth strong, the country can avert a crisis.
These seemingly alarming debt levels raise the question, why now? Why is it that Europe, the United States, Japan and even China all face substantial debt challenges at this time in history?
Economists explain that there’s no single answer to that question. Each of these poor-rich countries has accumulated debt in its own way and for its own reasons.
America’s $14.3 trillion obligation itself stems from a variety of factors, according to the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative. The biggest of these include tax cuts and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; the Obama administration’s stimulus spending, at $830 billion, has boosted the tab only modestly.
As for Japan, the country “has been in the economics doldrums since the early 1990s and has tried round after round of government spending to counter the twin real estate collapse and financial debacle that sparked the ‘Japanese lost decade,’” said Diego Mendez-Carbajo, chairperson of the economics department at Illinois Wesleyan University.
Unfortunately, much of that money was frittered away on bridges to nowhere, concrete-lined rivers and bullet train stops in sleepy towns — projects that never delivered the real benefits needed to put Japan back on track.
Even within Europe, the most heavily indebted countries have dug their fiscal holes through various methods. Greece suffers from profligate government spending, but even more importantly widespread tax cheating — estimated to be as large as the government’s deficit — fuels the crisis. Meanwhile, Ireland and Spain’s woes stem from a massive collapse in real estate that has thrust both countries into deep recession; in Spain, unemployment remains over 20 percent.
But there are factors that these debt stories all have in common. For instance, economists agree that the Great Recession has largely exacerbated the problem, turning what was formerly viewed as sustainable deficit spending — which can help fuel economic growth in the longterm — into something more worrisome.
“Countries typically get in trouble with debt because of economic growth slowdowns that are not accounted for while creating spending and funding policies,” said Walter Schubert, finance professor at La Salle University. When the economy slows, tax revenues plummet, because personal and corporate incomes decline, decreasing the tax base. At the same time, government spending automatically increases, because people who lose their jobs collect more social safety net benefits such as unemployment insurance and Medicaid. These government programs actually have a positive impact on the economy. They help to prevent further job losses and fuel economic recovery by adding money to the economy.
They also boost debt levels, and that poses a quandary for policymakers tasked with the job of putting their countries back on track. Faced with an outcry over government deficits, policymakers essentially have two options: raise taxes or cut spending. Some economists argue that raising taxes is actually the best option economically, particularly when it’s focused on wealthy people who might not otherwise spend their earnings. Taxing the rich, in other words, can help save middle class jobs and boost the economy for everyone (including the rich).
But since taxes are politically unpopular, the knee-jerk response is to slash budgets. Indeed, governments across the United States and Europe are enacting austerity measures to tame debt burdens.
Here’s the problem with that: reduced spending means that government workers lose jobs, as do the contractors and suppliers who work for them. A trimmed defense budget, for instance, could mean employment losses at Lockheed Martin or Boeing, which could in turn put shops and restaurants out of business in towns that depend on these corporations, and so on.
“In the end the best way to get out of debt is to grow out of it,” argues Schubert. “Strong economic growth raises revenues…. and in some cases reduces expenditure needs. That is by far the least painful way to end the debt crisis.”
Where all that growth will come from is unclear. We are, in a sense, navigating uncharted waters.
If it’s any consolation, Graeber, the author of “Debt: The First 5,000 Years,” is optimistic. He says “moral panics” about debt and the dangers of default pervade history.
“Before the French revolution, almost all the Enlightenment thinkers were arguing about what would happen if a great nation actually did have to default on its debts, since none ever had. It was widely assumed this would lead to some unprecedented catastrophe, such as a collapse of civilization. Of course none of that ever happened,” at least not to major powers, he writes in an email to GlobalPost. Instead, when the biggest players run into debt problems, “something can always be worked out,” he said.
The debts of the rich, in other words, are different from those of a poor bride. Too big to fail apparently works for countries too.
More GlobalPost
-
Middle East out of the ashes?
Arab countries embroiled in turmoil turn to Saudi Arabia for economic aidJon Jensen August 2, 2011 -
Can the Japanese economy recover after three disasters?
The March 11 triple catastrophe could not have come at a worse time for the island nationJustin McCurry August 2, 2011
David Case is a senior writer and editor at GlobalPost. Follow him @DavidCaseReport. More David Case.
Related Stories
More Related Stories
-
Developers evict historic women's shelter to build luxury hotel
-
Kaitlyn Hunt refuses plea offer, will go to court over high school relationship
-
DHS admits "impossible" to control 3D-printed guns
-
Journalists file suit against Manning trial secrecy
-
Russia: Syrian regime ready to talk peace
-
Report: Nearly a quarter of all Americans struggle to afford food
-
Ted Cruz against the world
-
Louie Gohmert: Women should be forced to carry nonviable pregnancies to term
-
2 men arrested for endangering commercial aircraft
-
Oversized load blamed for bridge collapse
-
This is what Guy Fieri looks like as a balloon
-
Iran hackers aiming at U.S. energy firms
-
Lawyers release data in attempt to discredit Trayvon Martin
-
Anonymous rallies behind Kaitlyn Hunt
-
Bridge collapse: Part of "aging infrastructure"
-
Mistrial in penalty phase of Arias case
-
Amanda Bynes arrested after hurling bong from window
-
Interstate 5 bridge collapses north of Seattle
-
Mississippi could begin prosecuting women for miscarriages
-
Teenage girl claims she was beaten up for looking like Taylor Swift
-
UK Military: London attack victim was a "model soldier"
Featured Slide Shows
The week in 10 pics
close X- Share on Twitter
- Share on Facebook
- Thumbnails
- Fullscreen
- 1 of 11
- Previous
- Next
-
Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
Credit: AP/LM Otero -
Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
Credit: AP/Matt Rourke -
A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher -
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
Credit: AP/Molly Riley -
Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite -
Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster -
O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid -
Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield -
When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin -
A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin -
Recent Slide Shows
- Share on Twitter
- Share on Facebook
- Thumbnails
- Fullscreen
- 1 of 11
- Previous
- Next
Related Videos
Salon is proud to feature content from GlobalPost, an awarding-winning international news site that focuses on original reporting from journalists stationed around the world. GlobalPost combines traditional journalistic values with the power of new media to offer a fresh perspective on global developments.
Most Read
-
Judge tells lesbian couple to separate -- or lose kids
Irin Carmon
-
9-year-old slams Rahm over Chicago schools
Natasha Lennard
-
Greek yogurt, toxic waste hazard?
Kristen Gwynne, AlterNet
-
Tornado survivor to Wolf Blitzer: Sorry, I'm an atheist. I don't have to thank the Lord
Mary Elizabeth Williams
-
Experts: Fox News spying scandal a game-changer
Natasha Lennard
-
Glenn Beck: CNN interview with atheist tornado survivor was a setup!
Katie Mcdonough
-
Joe Francis apologizes for calling jury "retarded"
Prachi Gupta
-
Graphic video reportedly shows possible London machete attack suspect
Jillian Rayfield
-
Couple files groundbreaking lawsuit over child's sexual-reassignment surgery
Katie Mcdonough
-
Bush cancels Europe trip amid calls for his arrest
Justin Elliott
Popular on Reddit
links from salon.com

110 points111 points112 points | 9 comments



Comments
24 Comments