SALON

Monday, Nov 14, 2011 8:04 PM UTC

And now Newt actually is in first place

He's not supposed to have a prayer. But he's also now climbed to heights that Mitt Romney himself can't reach

By

Topics: War Room, 2012 Elections,

And now Newt actually is in first placeNewt Gingrich (Credit: AP/Paul Sancya)

It’s the middle of November, the Iowa caucuses are less than two months away, and first place in a new Republican presidential poll belongs to … Newt Gingrich.

The former House speaker, who has given every indication that he mainly views running for president as an opportunity to goose Newt-branded merchandise sales, is the choice of 28 percent of likely GOP primary voters, according to a PPP survey released today. He’s followed by Herman Cain at 25 percent and Mitt Romney at 18. A second new poll, this one from CNN, shows Gingrich in second place with 22 percent, just 2 points behind Romney.

It is, of course, easy to be skeptical of whether Gingrich can maintain, or even improve on, his new position. For months now, Republican voters have been slowly warming up to him thanks to his assertive, wonkish-seeming performances in televised debates that have attracted massive audiences. Because media members and his fellow candidates have all assumed he has no chance of actually winning, he’s essentially avoided facing pointed follow-ups in debates, attacks from his rivals, and general scrutiny from the press.

Going forward, though, Newt figures to be treated less like a pundit and more like an actual candidate. And as we’ve seen over and over in his career, he just doesn’t hold up well in the spotlight. That point was driven home earlier this year, when he launched his campaign with an appearance on “Meet the Press” in which he couldn’t keep himself from characterizing Rep. Paul Ryan’s Medicare overhaul plan as “right-wing social engineering.” That prompted loud, immediate and universal condemnation from conservative opinion-shapers, and also led to a particularly humiliating encounter between Gingrich and an Iowa Republican voter who called him “a disgrace” and told him to withdraw from the race. And it was hardly the first self-inflicted meltdown for Newt, who’s entire four-year run as speaker was one continuous public relations disaster.

So yes, even though he’s now at or near the top, it’s still hard to treat Newt as a serious threat to win the GOP nomination. But his surge is still significant, if only because it makes it harder for any other candidate to claim the default non-Romney role that they’ve all been scrambling for. This is probably a development the Romney campaign welcomes; they probably figure that Newt, with his self-destructive tendencies and lack of a real campaign organization and meaningful establishment support, would be easy to marginalize if he’s their main rival once the primaries and caucuses actually start.

That said, it’s worth noting again the real resistance to Romney that polling continues to show. Newt may not last long at 28 percent, but Romney — for all his supposed inevitability — still hasn’t been able to climb that high himself. As I wrote this morning, this isn’t necessarily a problem for Romney; his national support will take care of itself if, like John McCain four years ago, he can scratch out victories in most of the key early contests next year. The problem is that, with the exception of New Hampshire, he’s struggling just as badly in the key early states as he is in national polls. It seems likely, given the competition, that enough opinion-shaping conservatives will ultimately rally to Romney and propel him to the wins he needs early next year.

But when Newt Gingrich starts attaining polling heights that Romney himself can’t seem to reach, you do wonder if Ed Kilgore is right that in today’s Republican universe you don’t have to be a “serious” candidate to win the party’s presidential nomination.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
    Credit: AP/LM Otero

  • Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
    Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

  • A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
    Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher

  • Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
    Credit: AP/Molly Riley

  • Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
    Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite

  • Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
    Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster

  • O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
    Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid

  • Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
    Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield

  • When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
    Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin

  • A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
    Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 58 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

War Room is our political news and commentary blog, with coverage and commentary throughout the day.

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: So long, Sookie Stackhouse

Recommendations