SALON

Tuesday, Jun 5, 2012 3:05 PM UTC

A Wisconsin consolation prize

Democrats may not oust Scott Walker. But they'll be able to thwart him if they can capture the state Senate Tuesday

By

Topics: Wisconsin Recall,

A Wisconsin consolation prize

While polls suggest the main event in Wisconsin does not look great for Democrats, there’s a whole other recall that’s largely slipped under a radar today that could offer a ray of hope for liberals, if a small one.

New York Times handicapper Nate Silver gives incumbent Gov. Scott Walker a 95 percent chance of victory today over Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. If the prediction proves true, it’d be a bitter defeat for Dems and labor activists in a race that has captured national attention as a proxy battle in the country’s ideological war.

But the prospect for progressives looks much better in Wisconsin’s other recall battle today, for control of the state Senate. “We feel confident that we will take back the state Senate today,” Wisconsin Democratic Party spokesman Graeme Zielinski told Salon.

While it’s gone almost completely unnoticed, there are four Republican-held state Senate seats up for grabs today, and Democrats need to win just one to wrest control of the chamber and win a potential check against Walker’s agenda, should he win again.

Democrats seem to have the best chance in the 21st District, where an internal Republican poll leaked to the Weekly Standard last night showed incumbent Van Wanggaard in trouble. A PPP poll from April showed the incumbent up slightly, but the new GOP poll shows him under 50 percent and behind Democrat  John Lehman by “single digits.”

The 23rd District is also in play, where both sides have invested heavily. Democrat Kristen Dexter has already beat Republican incumbent Terry Moulton once, in a state Assembly race four years ago.

The 29th District, where Republican Jerry Petrowski is facing off against Democrat Donna Seidel, is unusual in that there is no incumbent. Organizers got enough signatures to recall Republican Sen. Pam Galloway in the Northern Wisconsin district, but two months later, she resigned, citing family health problems. Republicans are expected to hold the seat, though Democrats think they have a chance here too.

Depending on turnout for the gubernatorial title fight, Zielinski said Democrats feel they have “a very good chance of sweeping all three Senate districts.”

The final seat up for grabs today belongs to Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, a close Walker ally. While he’s leveraged his political clout into strong poll numbers, the race has attracted an interesting Democratic challenger, whom Mother Jones’ Andy Kroll profiled yesterday. Lori Compas, a wedding photographer who had never been involved in politics and announced her political ambitions on Facebook, perhaps best represents the grass-roots spirit of the anti-Walker movement in the state.

With only one seat needed for the consolation prize, a Democratic win seems very likely. Still,  it’s unclear what that will mean. “Right now we’re focused on the 8 p.m. hour [when polls close] and we’ll see what happens after that,” Zielinski said.

Control of the Senate could help Democrats block new pieces of the Walker agenda, though many of its most pernicious reforms have already gone into effect, and control of one chamber will not be enough to undo them.

Republicans are also counting on the fact that, even if they lose the Senate in today’s special elections, they have a good shot of retaking control in November’s regular election. The GOP will have two good pickup opportunities then, but if Democrats win two or three seats today, the calculus could shift.

Regardless of what happens in coming months, a win in the state Senate tonight will no doubt be held up as a victory for Democrats and progressive activists who have fought so hard against Walker. It’ll be either a salve for the pain of a Walker win or the icing on the cake of a Barrett upset.

Alex Seitz-Wald

Alex Seitz-Wald is Salon's political reporter. Email him at aseitz-wald@salon.com, and follow him on Twitter @aseitzwald. More Alex Seitz-Wald.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
    Credit: AP/LM Otero

  • Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
    Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

  • A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
    Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher

  • Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
    Credit: AP/Molly Riley

  • Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
    Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite

  • Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
    Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster

  • O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
    Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid

  • Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
    Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield

  • When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
    Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin

  • A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
    Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 6 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: So long, Sookie Stackhouse

Recommendations