SALON

Tuesday, Jun 12, 2012 11:53 AM UTC

Bush still boosts Obama

An alarming Fed report may actually help explain why some struggling Americans haven’t turned on the president

By

Topics: Opening Shot,

Bush still boosts ObamaPresident Obama(Credit: AP)

No statistic better captures the traumatizing effect of the economic meltdown on America’s middle class than the one released by the Federal Reserve yesterday: Between 2007 and 2010, the median net worth of American families dropped by nearly $50,000, from $126,400 to $77,300 – a decline of 39 percent that brought the median figure all the way back to where it was in 1992.

The finding is based on data from more than a year ago (the Fed releases these reports every three years), but it shows the extent to which the failure of housing prices to recover after the burst of the bubble has punished the middle class, a key reason why the broader economic recovery has been so sluggish.

Jared Bernstein, the former White House economics adviser, told the New York Times that the details are “quite ugly,” which is certainly a fair description. The main benefit of the report is probably its potential to remind the media and policy-makers just how much of a hit Americans have taken these past few years. But it also could be useful in understanding where the presidential race currently stands.

Generally, polls show President Obama with an approval rating that approaches (but rarely crosses) 50 percent and with a small lead over Mitt Romney, his presumptive GOP foe. What’s interesting about this is that Obama’s political health seems to be stronger than it should be. For an upcoming book, political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck used data stretching back 60 years to create a model that predicts presidential approval based on economic conditions. As of the end of 2011, Obama was racking up scores significantly better than the model suggested he should be.

Sides and Vavreck suggest that, among other things, Obama may be benefiting from the public’s lingering memory of George W. Bush’s presidency and, more specifically, the imploding economy he passed off to Obama in January 2009. The new Fed figures may support this idea, in that they illustrate how steep, and pervasive and enduring the decline in family income has been since the final year of Bush’s tenure. As frustrated as they surely are by the slow pace of recovery under Obama, there’s probably an appreciation among many Americans of just how deep the problem is – and the fact that it preceded Obama’s swearing-in.

Interestingly, a focus group commissioned by Wal-Mart and administered by a bipartisan team of pollsters in Nevada last week found this phenomenon at work. The focus group consisted of working- and middle-class “Wal-Mart moms” who said they were undecided on the Obama-Romney race. As Roll Call’s Shira Toeplitz reported:

The females in the focus groups were surprisingly risk averse — to the point it evoked thoughts of FDR’s 1944 re-election slogan “Don’t swap horses midstream.” More than one Richmond participant cited “maybe three years isn’t enough” to turn things around. Another participant warned of a “learning period” if former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is elected. And a Las Vegas mom argued of Obama, “He’s already in place.” On the other hand, hardly a hand was raised when the Las Vegas women were questioned if they were better off economically than they were three years ago. These voters were generally disappointed in Obama, but they weren’t ready to make the switch yet.

From Obama’s standpoint, this isn’t a lot to go on, but it’s something. The Romney strategy relies on voters this fall making a simple present-tense judgment and casting their ballots against the president if they don’t think the economy is moving in the right direction. Obama won’t be able to run a “Morning in America” campaign, but he’s counting on context winning out, with a crucial chunk of voters remembering what he inherited (and, perhaps, understanding the obstruction he’s faced from Republicans in Congress) and giving him the benefit of the doubt, even if they’re not enthusiastic about it.

For now, his poll numbers suggest Obama might actually pull this off. But the election is still five months away, and it’s an open question whether his support can withstand more discouraging unemployment reports and all of the Republican attacks to come.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
    Credit: AP/LM Otero

  • Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
    Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

  • A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
    Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher

  • Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
    Credit: AP/Molly Riley

  • Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
    Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite

  • Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
    Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster

  • O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
    Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid

  • Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
    Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield

  • When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
    Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin

  • A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
    Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 71 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

Alex Pareene surveys the burgeoning and bloated world of political news and opinion and explains the day's most essential story in Opening Shot, posted by 8:30 a.m. each weekday. Bookmark this page; follow @pareene on Twitter.

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: Chekhov's story mirrors Russia's own

Recommendations