SALON

Thursday, Jun 21, 2012 2:02 PM UTC

Swing voters ponder the last four years

Two very different interpretations of the last four years show how the race will be decided

By

Topics: War Room,

Swing voters ponder the last four yearsPresident Barack Obama speaks during a news conference at the G20 Summit, Tuesday, June 19, 2012, in Los Cabos, Mexico. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)(Credit: AP)

What the Romney-Obama race really boils down to is a battle between blame and context.

The Romney campaign, as I’ve been writing, is banking on the tendency of economically anxious swing voters to turn on the guy in charge and latch on to the opposition candidate as a vehicle for their frustrations. This is why Romney is not exactly straining himself to spell out detailed policy positions and proposals. The idea is to avoid being identified with controversial and potentially divisive views and to focus on stoking the outrage of swing voters over how rotten “Obama’s economy” is. If they want to blame Obama, the thinking goes, these voters will find a way to rationalize it and support Romney; no coherent policy blueprint needed.

There’s a lot to be said for this formula. Their sense of how the economy is doing tends to shape how genuine swing voters shape their perceptions of a campaign – much more than ads, speeches, debates, gaffes and daily message wars do. More than anything else, this is why the race is so close and is expected to remain so through the fall, barring an unforeseen economic jolt.

A new AP poll, for instance, puts Obama 3 points up on Romney, 47 to 44 percent. This is consistent with just about every other poll taken, and suggests that a poll released Wednesday showing Obama ahead by 13 really was an outlier. A quote from one of the voters surveyed by AP, which Greg Sargent flagged this morning, captures perfectly the thinking that the Romney campaign is encouraging:

“I’m not going to vote for Obama,” said Raymond Back, a 60-year-old manufacturing plant manager from North Olmsted, Ohio… “I don’t know what Romney is going to do, but this isn’t the right way.”

It isn’t clear if Back is a swing voter or a Republican, so it’s possible he’s mainly expressing a partisan bias here. But his words are the exact words that Romney wants on swing voters’ minds when they head to the voting booth in November.

On the flip side is Obama’s strategy, which depends on these same swing voters balancing their anxiety and frustration with an appreciation of context – the fact that Obama inherited an economy that was in the midst of a Great Depression-like crash, that the mess came on his Republican predecessor’s watch, that congressional Republicans have ignored his pleas to pass his jobs bill, that Romney’s own business background involved more than just “job creation,” that a Romney victory empowers the same forces that held sway during the Bush years, and so on.

There’s also something to be said for this formula. As John Sides and Lynn Vavreck have demonstrated, Obama seems to be stronger politically than a president presiding over such lousy economic conditions should be. The most likely explanation: They remember the meltdown of 2008 and understand how deep the hole was when Obama came to office. This is reflected in a swing voter quote that Bloomberg collected from one of the respondents to its poll this week:

“Obama is the lesser of two evils,” says Rosean Smith, 38, an independent voter from Columbus, Ohio, who says Obama faced unrealistic expectations on the economy. “He was basically handed a sick drug baby and expected to make a genius out of it overnight.”

The election will be determined by whose interpretation of the last four years is most prevalent among swing voters: Raymond Back’s or Rosean Smith’s.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.

Next Article

You Might Also Like

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

Gripping photos: The people of the Turkey protests (slideshow)

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • The protests take on a festive element as police forces move out of the park and square. Wearing a gas mask, this young man dances to traditional Turkish music in front of Taksim Square’s Ataturk Monument.

  • In Gezi Park since March 31st, this protester, originally caught off-guard by the Government’s teargas and water cannons, went out and bought a Russian army mask from WWII, preparing for what was to come.

  • This rambunctious boy seems to be enjoying the chaos. After taking this picture he threw a stone at the already destroyed building in the background.

  • Forming a line, the police face off directly with protesters in Taksim Square. After a while, they retreated and there was a general cheer – a back-and-forth dance that has been common since the beginning of this protest.

  • An elderly woman in Gezi Park reads the news. The tent community occupying the park was violently destroyed on June 16th.

  • Many different groups had set up booths to promote their cause in Taksim Square and Gezi Park. Standing in front of one, this man waves his flag while posing with conviction.

  • Many home-remedies are used to minimize the effects of tear gas. This woman has put a milky solution on her face, removing her mask after the tear gas dissipated. Before sunrise, the police came again for another round of teargasing.

  • People capitalize on the uprising -- selling flags, beer, gas masks, sky lanterns and spray paint to name just a few of the popular items.

  • On Monday morning, June 11, the police execute a strong offensive. Many plain-clothed police officers, like the ones seen here, clash with protesters in the side streets away from the main stand-off in Taksim.

  • The authorities seem to be most aggressive in the night, pushing protesters away from the square and park. After being teargassed this young woman catches her breath with other protesters on Siraselviler Street.

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

More Related Stories

Comments

 9 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username ( settings | log out )

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

War Room is our political news and commentary blog, with coverage and commentary throughout the day.

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: "We Are All Completely Beside Ourselves": Growing up primate

Recommendations