SALON

Friday, Jul 6, 2012 3:33 PM UTC

Latino poll spells trouble for Romney

He is betting that Latino voters care more about jobs than immigration, but a new poll suggests otherwise

By

Topics: Mitt Romney, Immigration, Hispanics, 2012 Elections,

Latino poll spells trouble for RomneyA demonstrator, who wished not to give his name, rallies in front of the Georgia Capitol Tuesday, May 1, 2012, in Atlanta. A May Day rally at the Capitol Tuesday that organizers called a “historic coming together” of immigrants and working people was significantly smaller than in recent years, drawing only about 100 people. (AP Photo/David Goldman) (Credit: AP)

While immigration has been sidelined lately by debates over healthcare and jobs, new survey data today gets at the key question on the potential political impact of either party’s border policy: How much do Latino voters actually care about immigration? Mitt Romney has bet they don’t care very much. The presumed Republican nominee has stuck by the hard-line immigration position he adopted during the primary and has instead tried to sell a jobs message to Hispanics, arguing that they care about the economy far more than anything else.

This may have been a miscalculation, as Romney has still failed to poll anywhere near the 44 percent of the Latino vote George W. Bush captured in 2004. Today, the polling firm Latino Decisions offers some of the most comprehensive data yet to explain why, looking at the the key swing state of Florida. The poll asked Latino registered voters, “What are the most important issues facing the [Hispanic/Latino] community that you think Congress and the President should address?” Thirty percent said immigration reform or the Dream Act tops their list, while 30 percent chose fixing the economy, and 17 percent picked unemployment. So economic issues in general are more important, but immigration remains hugely important.

But the next question is even more interesting. The poll asked the Latino voters if they would be more likely to vote for a hypothetical candidate who espoused a tough or supportive stance on immigration. Fully 80 percent of Florida Latinos said they would be more likely to back a candidate with a supportive immigration stance, while 46 percent said they would be less likely to support a candidate with a tough stance. Just 4 percent said they would be less likely to back a candidate with a liberal immigration policy stance.

Overall, these findings confirm what plenty of other polling data has shown — that immigration is probably more important than Republicans admit, but not necessarily the most important thing to Latino voters. However, the Florida poll is particularly interesting because of the unique nature of Florida’s Latino population. About two-thirds of Florida’s 1.5 million registered Latino voters are from either Cuba or Puerto Rico, according to the Center for Voting and Democracy, which both enjoy unique immigration policies. Puerto Ricans, of course, are American citizens at birth, while Cubans can take advantage of political asylum rules that don’t apply to immigrants from other Latin American countries. This would suggest that most Florida Latinos would be unconcerned with whether a presidential candidate has a tough or supportive stance on immigration — it doesn’t apply to them. Indeed, Cubans have, for years, voted Republican, unlike most other Hispanics and despite the party’s harsh immigration stance.

But the Latino Decisions question on the hypothetical candidate’s policies suggests that Cuban and Puerto Rican Floridians are beginning to care more about immigration than many analysts believe. This, in turn, suggests that immigration has become an increasingly salient issue among all voters of Hispanic decent, not just those who will be directly affected by deportations or a Dream Act. Given its demographic makeup, Florida should give Republicans their best chance of winning the Latino vote, but this poll spells trouble. (It also found Obama beating Romney 59 to 32 percent among decided Latino voters.)

Indeed, one need only look at Arizona to see how much worse the picture is for Republicans in other states with big Latino populations. According to Latino Decisions, immigration ranks higher (43 percent) than the combination of the two economic issues (39 percent) asked about in the survey in the Southwest border state, which has been consumed by immigration debates in recent years.

Alex Seitz-Wald

Alex Seitz-Wald is Salon's political reporter. Email him at aseitz-wald@salon.com, and follow him on Twitter @aseitzwald. More Alex Seitz-Wald.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
    Credit: AP/LM Otero

  • Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
    Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

  • A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
    Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher

  • Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
    Credit: AP/Molly Riley

  • Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
    Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite

  • Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
    Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster

  • O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
    Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid

  • Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
    Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield

  • When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
    Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin

  • A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
    Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 22 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: Chekhov's story mirrors Russia's own

Recommendations