SALON

Sunday, Jul 15, 2012 12:45 PM UTC

Obama’s pros, cons as summer of campaigning starts

By

Topics: From the Wires,

Obama's pros, cons as summer of campaigning startsPresident Barack Obama campaigns despite the pouring rain at the historic Walkerton Tavern & Gardens in Glen Allen, Va., near Richmond, Saturday, July 14, 2012. It is in the Congressional district represented by Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., a key county in a crucial swing state of the presidential election. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)(Credit: AP)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Four months from Election Day, President Barack Obama has an edge in support among women, African-Americans, Hispanics and young people, groups that could him swing the race in November.

He retains the power of incumbency and people generally like him.

But there are indications that Obama’s supporters aren’t as enthusiastic about him as they once were, and the Democrat no longer is in a fundraising league of his own, with Republican Mitt Romney and GOP-leaning groups raking in the campaign cash.

Plus, the shaky economy, which crashed in fall of 2008 and helped Obama capture the presidency, is a huge vulnerability. Come November, it could trump all his other advantages.

A look at Obama’s assets and liabilities:

ADVANTAGES:

Power of Incumbency: He’s the president, and that means he can set the national agenda. It’s a power Obama has put to good use during his re-election campaign. He used the anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death to remind voters of his national security credentials. He made a direct appeal to Hispanics by announcing a more lenient immigration policy for people who came to the U.S. illegally as children. The president also already is known to the public so his campaign can focus its efforts on defining Romney instead of spending time and money introducing Obama.

Demographics: Obama leads Romney among women, African-Americans, Hispanics and young people, edges with key voting blocs that could help him capture battleground states. The Obama campaign is banking on support from Hispanics to win out west in places like Nevada and Colorado, and in Virginia, where the Hispanic population has surged. High turnout among African-Americans would help Obama in North Carolina. And if Obama wins the women vote, it would be a significant boost to his efforts to reach the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

Likability: No matter how bad the economy gets or how low Obama’s job approval ratings dip, polls show many Americans still like the president. And that personal appeal could make a big difference with undecided voters who may find it hard to vote against someone they like. About 50 percent of those surveyed in a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll felt positively about Obama, compared to 33 percent who felt positively about Romney.

Strong Surrogates: The Obama campaign has two popular and persuasive surrogates at its disposal: Michelle Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. Both keep up a robust campaign schedule. They head to battleground states when official business keeps the president in Washington. And they’re dispatched to places where they may be more popular than he is. The first lady’s approval ratings — 64 percent view her favorably according to a recent Pew poll — far exceed her husband’s. And Biden has an easier rapport than Obama with white, working class voters in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

LIABILITIES:

Economy: There is no greater threat to Obama’s re-election prospects than the economy. Even the most loyal Obama supporters say that if the already shaky economy softens any further before Election Day, the president’s chances of winning will be significantly diminished. The nation’s unemployment rate is stuck above 8 percent, though it has come down from its high of 10.1 percent in 2009. No one in the White House or Obama campaign expect significant economic improvement before the election. But advisers do fear that the economy could get worse, it could cement the notion with voters that the president is the wrong economic steward.

Outside money: Romney and outside groups supporting him are expected to spend more than $1 billion during the campaign, with much money being used to flood the airwaves with TV ads attacking the president. Democrats have struggled to compete with the torrent of GOP money. A Democratic super political action committee hasn’t come close to matching the fundraising totals of its Republican counterparts. And Obama’s campaign was vastly outraised by Romney’s campaign last month. The president and his advisers say Obama could be the first incumbent running for re-election to get outspent — though the also may be trying to motivate reluctant Democratic donors.

Waning Enthusiasm: Obama himself acknowledges that his candidacy isn’t as exciting as it was in 2008 when he was a political newcomer. Voters who lack enthusiasm may not donate money or volunteer for his campaign. They also may not show up to vote in November. That’s a particular concern for Obama among young people, who not only voted for him in large numbers in 2008, but were a core part of his volunteer base. A Pew Research Center poll conducted last month showed that 60 percent of younger voters say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election, down from 71 percent in 2008.

Lack of second term specifics: Obama’s re-election rationale is based more on broad themes, like economic fairness, than specific policy objectives for a second term. A recent economic speech in Ohio was largely a rehash of ideas the president has previously proposed. It left the president open to criticism from Republicans and some Democrats who say he hasn’t provided voters a clear enough sense of what he wants to do in a second term. Obama campaign officials counter this criticism by saying the presidents still wants to pass previously proposed ideas that were blocked by Congress in his first term — and by noting that Romney hasn’t offered many specifics of his own.

___

Follow Julie Pace at http://twitter.com/jpaceDC

More Julie Pace.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
    Credit: AP/LM Otero

  • Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
    Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

  • A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
    Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher

  • Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
    Credit: AP/Molly Riley

  • Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
    Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite

  • Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
    Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster

  • O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
    Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid

  • Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
    Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield

  • When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
    Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin

  • A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
    Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 0 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

vote
New Yorker launches tool by Aaron Swartz to protect leaks: Strongbox, co-created by the late technologist, is an open-source drop box for leaked documents
240 points241 points | 9 comments
vote
New Yorker launches tool by Aaron Swartz to protect leaks: Strongbox, co-created by the persecuted late technologist, is an open-source drop box for leaked documents
173 points174 points | 1 comment
vote
Loaded terminology like "entitlements" and "welfare" skews the debate and alters America. How right-wingers use semantic tricks to kill government.
172 points173 points | 44 comments
vote
Obstruction will ruin the GOP: Playing politics and abusing the system can excite the extremes, but it's a recipe for long-term political disaster
51 points52 points | 8 comments
vote
How right-wingers use semantic tricks to kill government -- "...much of the U.S. economic security support system consists of subsidies for the affluent in the form of tax breaks, like those for private retirement savings plans such as 401(k)s and private employer-provided health insurance."
36 points37 points | 3 comments

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: So long, Sookie Stackhouse

Recommendations