Expect the president and House Republicans to keep everything as is until March 15 -- when we can do this all over
(Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster)
Want to know what’s going to happen to January’s fiscal cliff? Just remember: Political deals move the same way water goes down hill — following the path of least resistance.
Here, the path of least resistance is for congressional Republicans and the President to agree to kick the can down the road – keeping everything as it is (current spending, the Bush tax cut) until a date in the not-too-distant future — say, March 15.
As a sweetener, Republicans will have to agree to lift the debt ceiling again when a vote is needed to do so, probably in late January.
This mini-deal will give the new Congress and the White House time to craft a “grand bargain” on deficit reduction without going over the fiscal cliff.
It also enables the White House and Democrats to retain their trump card: The Bush tax cuts will automatically expire at the end of the negotiation period (in my example, March 15) unless an agreement is reached. So the top marginal tax rate automatically rises to 39 percent.
The downside of the mini-deal: Financial markets will remain uncertain about the ultimate deal. That means another several months of Wall Street gyrations. And certain industries – military contractors, drug companies, and other sectors dependent on government spending – may delay expansion or hiring until a grand bargain is struck.
But it’s far better than going over the cliff.
Robert Reich, one of the nation’s leading experts on work and the economy, is Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations, most recently as secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton. Time Magazine has named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the last century. He has written 13 books, including his latest best-seller, “Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future;” “The Work of Nations,” which has been translated into 22 languages; and his newest, an e-book, “Beyond Outrage.” His syndicated columns, television appearances, and public radio commentaries reach millions of people each week. He is also a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine, and Chairman of the citizen’s group Common Cause. His widely-read blog can be found at www.robertreich.org.