China’s economy is likely to overtake the United States’ by 2030, according to a US intelligence report published Monday.
“Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” issued by the National Intelligence Council, said Asia would overtake North America and Europe combined — in terms of global economic power — by the year 2030, according to Reuters.
“Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines,” the report said.
The report attributed the shifts in global power to economic and political changes triggered by emerging technologies, dwindling resources and population booms over the next few decades, according to Bloomberg.
Analysts isolated four “megatrends” that they said are transforming the world: the end of US global dominance, the rising power of individuals against states, a rising middle class, and water, food and energy shortages, Bloomberg reported.
“The growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift,” said the report, according to The New York Times. “For the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world.”
The assessment did say America would remain an indispensable world leader, according to The Times, supported in part by energy independence. Analysts predicted that Russia’s power would wane, as would the economic strength of countries reliant on oil exports for revenue.
The report predicted that there would no longer be any one hegemonic power; instead, they wagered, “Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.”
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