SALON

Tuesday, Jan 29, 2013 12:44 PM UTC

Can Dems hold Kerry’s seat?

A heated Democratic primary might be the party's best shot at defeating the presumptive favorite, Scott Brown

By

Topics: Opening Shot, John Kerry, Scott Brown, Ed Markey, Steve Lynch,

Can Dems hold Kerry's seat? (Credit: AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Typically, the view of party leaders is that primaries are best avoided. Better to coalesce around a consensus candidate early, help that candidate amass a mighty bankroll, and focus the attention of volunteers, activists and other stakeholders on the general election. But that is not the prevailing attitude among Massachusetts Democrats as they face the state’s third Senate election in three years.

John Kerry’s confirmation as secretary of state will come either Tuesday or Wednesday, but it’s such a formality that the Massachusetts secretary of state has already gone ahead and scheduled the special election to replace him, with primaries in April and the final vote on June 25. Right now, there’s only one declared candidate from either party: Ed Markey, a Democratic congressman from outside Boston. But Democrats are convinced that Scott Brown, the Republican who won a January 2010 special election only to lose to Elizabeth Warren last fall, is going to jump in the race – and because of that, they are hoping that a second Democrat will also enter the fray to battle Markey in a primary.

This is not, by and large, because they don’t like and support Markey. The 66-year-old congressman has already racked up endorsements from Kerry, Vicki Kennedy and several other statewide elected officials. He’s also the preferred choice of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and with his lengthy and reliably progressive record, he figures to be an acceptable candidate to many of the party’s key coalition groups.

What Democrats wonder about, though, is his work ethic as a candidate. Markey was elected to the House in 1976, but the state’s partisan bent and a series of favorable redistricting rounds have insulated him from a serious electoral challenge for decades. The last time he faced a suspenseful contest, in fact, was when Kerry’s Senate seat was last open – back in 1984, when the late Paul Tsongas declined to seek a second term. Markey was one of several Democrats to enter the race to succeed him, but early polling showed him lagging behind Kerry and then-Rep. James Shannon, prompting Markey to back out of the race and return to his safe House seat.

Call around to Massachusetts Democrats and you’ll hear common concerns: Is Markey going to treat this race like just another House race – or is he really going to fight for it? And does he even know to fight for it?

These fears reflect Brown’s strengths as a candidate. When he was elected three years ago, Democrats approached the race with the assumption that their primary would pick the next senator. Thus was the Democratic contest a low-key affair. Martha Coakley, who had racked up solid name recognition and a decent reputation as attorney general, jumped out to a big lead in polling, and most Democrats were content to leave it there. The state hadn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972 (and that Republican, Ed Brooke, had been a very liberal Republican), so there was no reason to worry about Coakley’s electability. She coasted to the nomination, promptly treated herself to a now-infamous vacation and, well, the rest is history.

No one thinks Markey will be that incompetent as a candidate, but Democrats widely agree that Brown – if he runs – will begin the race with a lead and will never fall that far below 50 percent. Even though he lost to Warren by 8 points last fall, he retains enviable personal popularity, and turnout in the special election will be much lower with no presidential race on the ballot. Beating him will require the Democratic nominee to be at the top of his game – to seek out and exploit Brown’s vulnerabilities every day, to avoid whatever traps he sets, and to minimize self-inflicted wounds.

This is where the desire for a primary comes in. The endorsements Markey has won to date suggest a coronation within the party – a coronation that could breed complacency. But if he’s forced to work, to fight for the nomination, the thinking goes, that will leave him in far better shape to step into the ring with Brown. The good news for primary-seeking Democrats is that there is a candidate on the horizon: Stephen Lynch, a congressman from South Boston. A former ironworker, Lynch has strong ties to organized labor, but also skews to the right on cultural issues. He also cast a vote against the Affordable Care Act in ‘10.

A Lynch-Markey primary would call to mind the liberal/conservative divide that defined the memorable Michael Dukakis/Ed King intraparty clashes of 1978 and 1982. But the state has changed in the three decades since then, and Markey is probably more ideologically suited to today’s Massachusetts Democratic Party. He’d be the favorite in a race against Lynch.

But Lynch is a crafty campaigner; his career was made in part by running against what was then the most powerful force in South Boston politics – the Bulger family – to win a state Senate seat in 1996. Five years later, he beat out several more liberal candidates to win the Democratic nomination to replace the late Rep. Joe Moakley. Lynch sent mixed signals about his intentions last week, but he is widely expected to jump in the race. And especially if he can convince some of the state’s more influential union leaders to side with him, he could give Markey a serious run. Serious enough to win the nomination? Most Democrats doubt that. But serious enough to make Markey a stronger candidate against Brown, whose natural constituency overlaps with Lynch’s? That’s what Democrats are betting on.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
    Credit: AP/LM Otero

  • Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
    Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

  • A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
    Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher

  • Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
    Credit: AP/Molly Riley

  • Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
    Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite

  • Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
    Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster

  • O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
    Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid

  • Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
    Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield

  • When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
    Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin

  • A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
    Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 17 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

Alex Pareene surveys the burgeoning and bloated world of political news and opinion and explains the day's most essential story in Opening Shot, posted by 8:30 a.m. each weekday. Bookmark this page; follow @pareene on Twitter.

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

vote
Paul Krugman’s right: Austerity kills. "In an economy where we’re all in the same boat, one person’s spending is another person’s income. So when the government cuts spending, it reduces people’s income, leading to less business, more unemployment, and a vicious spiral of slowing down the economy."
382 points383 points | 401 comments
vote
Paul Krugman’s right: Austerity kills -- radical cuts destroy economies and lives, and the honest numbers and economics keep proving it
174 points175 points | 27 comments
vote
Virginia state Sen. Mark Obenshain wants to send women to jail who don't report their miscarriages to the police
103 points104 points | 21 comments
vote
Corporate greed is poisoning America — literally
83 points84 points | 11 comments
vote
Facebook “like” on trial in Virginia
27 points28 points | 6 comments

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: So long, Sookie Stackhouse

Recommendations