SALON

Monday, Jun 3, 2013 3:27 PM UTC

So what now in New Jersey?

Frank Lautenberg's death creates an immediate dilemma for Chris Christie -- and for Democrats

By

Topics: Frank Lautenberg, Cory Booker, New Jersey, Chris Christie, 2014 election

So what now in New Jersey?Frank Lautenberg (Credit: AP)

(updated below)

The New Jersey political world – and that most certainly includes Chris Christie and his inner circle – was well aware of Frank Lautenberg’s failing health long before he succumbed to viral pneumonia Monday morning at age 89. The senator’s rapid decline had fueled months of quiet and uncomfortably morbid conversations between and among members of both parties, who sought to balance basic good taste with the very practical questions that Lautenberg’s passing would raise.

Lautenberg announced in February that he wouldn’t seek another term in 2014. He had hoped to do this on his own terms, but Cory Booker’s poorly timed decision to throw his own name into the ’14 mix back in December created the impression that Lautenberg was surrendering in the face of a fight. After that February announcement, Lautenberg’s condition seemed to worsen and his prolonged absence from the Senate led members of both parties to conclude that he might resign or die before the end of next year.

Timing became an issue. There is already a statewide election taking place this year in New Jersey, for governor. State law holds that if a Senate vacancy occurs more than 70 days before a regularly scheduled election, the governor gets to make an interim appointment and then has a choice: either to hold the special election for the vacated seat on the same day as the regularly scheduled election, or to hold it on a free-standing date sometime before the regularly scheduled election. If the vacancy occurs within 70 days of the election, the governor can delay the special election until the next year.

Because this year’s regularly scheduled election is still five months away, there will have to be a special Senate election sometime this year. In terms of raw politics, this is not the ideal situation for Gov. Chris Christie – and it may not be the preferred scenario for Democrats either. Here’s how it looks from each perspective:

Christie: The governor is coasting to an easy reelection victory over Democrat Barbara Buono. Before Lautenberg’s passing, the big news on Monday was that a number of top-tier Democratic donors are lining up to support Christie, who leads by about 30 points in polling. Of all of the nation’s Republican governors, Christie leads the most Democratic-friendly state; New Jersey voted for President Obama by 18 points last year.

Christie, obviously, is hoping to rack up the kind of lopsided margin that might enhance his stature for a 2016 presidential race. To date, he has skillfully divided New Jersey’s Democratic Party, peeling off critical legislative and electoral support from across the aisle. His main concern when it comes to this November is to avoid saying or doing anything that might give wayward Democrats reason to return to the fold.

This is why those around Christie aren’t pleased with the prospect of a special Senate election on the same day as the gubernatorial election. All of the advantages that Christie enjoys over Buono will not be enjoyed by the Republican candidate in the Senate race – even if that candidate gets a few months of quasi-incumbency through an appointment by Christie. In the best case scenario for Republicans, the Senate race will be close. In the worst case, it’s another double-digit blowout loss – a concern that will be heightened if the Democratic candidate is Cory Booker. Under this scenario, the Democratic candidate for Senate could potentially boost the performance of Buono, making the gubernatorial race closer than it should be. And this is why it won’t be surprising if Christie looks for a way to justify holding a separate special Senate election this year. But this would be tricky. Elections are expensive and Christie would risk being accused of wasting taxpayer money on an effort to make himself look better on Election Day. It will be a lot easier for him to do this if Democrats were to also call for a separate special election …

Democrats: … and it’s possible they will. Or that some of them will. Buono clearly has an incentive for the Senate and gubernatorial elections to be concurrent. It might not end up helping her that much, but it couldn’t hurt. But for the Democratic Senate candidate – whomever it ends up being – it’s a different story. The risk of concurrent elections for that candidate would be that Christie’s popularity rubs off on the Republican Senate candidate, boosting his/her performance by a few critical points.

Then there’s the question of candidates. On the Democratic side, we know that Cory Booker, the mayor of Newark, wants to run. Frank Pallone, who has represented the Shore-area in the House since 1988, has also made his interest clear. Pallone has some serious money in the bank and has passed on several previous opportunities to try for the Senate. But because this will be a special election, he won’t have anything to risk this time. Even if he loses to Booker in the primary (or loses the general election to a Republican), he could return to his safe House seat.

On the Republican side, there’s … not much. The state GOP’s bench is very weak at this point. Tom Kean Jr.’s name will be mentioned. He ran against Bob Menendez in 2006, impressed few with his debate and communication skills, and lost by 9 points. There’s also Joe Kyrillos, who lost to Menendez last year by 19 points. Kyrillos, a longtime state senator, was once a rising star in state GOP politics and is friends with Christie. But Christie also didn’t want Kyrillos to run for the Senate last year, and his poor showing against Menendez may have hurt his stock. Christie’s lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno, could also be in the mix, along with others.

There’s also nothing to prevent Christie from tapping a caretaker – an elder statesman (like, say, former Gov. Tom Kean Sr.) to occupy the seat for the rest of this year while the special election plays out. Of course, Republicans in New Jersey have some experience with caretaker senators. When Democratic Sen. Harrison Williams was convicted of bribery over Abscam in 1982, then-Gov. Kean chose an interim senator, Nicholas Brady, to fill the seat. This denied the Republican candidate, Millicent Fenwick, any of the benefits of incumbency and probably helped her Democratic opponent narrowly defeat her that fall. That Democratic candidate’s name was Frank Lautenberg.

Update: It now appears there are conflicting statutes in play here. One indicates that the election must be held this year, as described above; the other suggests that Christie could select an appointee who wouldn’t have to run until 2014. According to the Star-Ledger, the state Office of Legislative Services issued an opinion today that took the latter view. This might be the preferred course for Christie, but the state’s Democratic chairman told the Ledger that he thinks the statute calling for an immediate special election this year should be honored because it is more recent. The possibility that this will end up in court looms — something that the New Jersey political world is accustomed to.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.

You Might Also Like

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

7 motorist-friendly camping sites

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 9

Sponsored Post

  • White River National Forest via Lower Crystal Lake, Colorado
    For those OK with the mainstream, White River Forest welcomes more than 10 million visitors a year, making it the most-visited recreation forest in the nation. But don’t hate it for being beautiful; it’s got substance, too. The forest boasts 8 wilderness areas, 2,500 miles of trail, 1,900 miles of winding service system roads, and 12 ski resorts (should your snow shredders fit the trunk space). If ice isn’t your thing: take the tire-friendly Flat Tops Trail Scenic Byway — 82 miles connecting the towns of Meeker and Yampa, half of which is unpaved for you road rebels.
    fs.usda.gov/whiteriveryou


    Image credit: Getty

  • Chattahoochee-Oconee National Forest via Noontootla Creek, Georgia
    Boasting 10 wildernesses, 430 miles of trail and 1,367 miles of trout-filled stream, this Georgia forest is hailed as a camper’s paradise. Try driving the Ridge and Valley Scenic Byway, which saw Civil War battles fought. If the tall peaks make your engine tremble, opt for the relatively flat Oconee National Forest, which offers smaller hills and an easy trail to the ghost town of Scull Shoals. Scaredy-cats can opt for John’s Mountain Overlook, which leads to twin waterfalls for the sensitive sightseer in you.
    fs.usda.gov/conf


    Image credit: flickr/chattoconeenf

  • Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area via Green Road, Michigan
    The only national forest in Lower Michigan, the Huron-Mainstee spans nearly 1 million acres of public land. Outside the requisite lush habitat for fish and wildlife on display, the Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area is among the biggest hooks for visitors: offering beach camping with shores pounded by big, cerulean surf. Splash in some rum and you just might think you were in the Caribbean.
    fs.usda.gov/hmnf


    Image credit: umich.edu

  • Canaan Mountain via Backcountry Canaan Loop Road, West Virginia
    A favorite hailed by outdoorsman and author Johnny Molloy as some of the best high-country car camping sites anywhere in the country, you don’t have to go far to get away. Travel 20 miles west of Dolly Sods (among the busiest in the East) to find the Canaan Backcountry (for more quiet and peace). Those willing to leave the car for a bit and foot it would be remiss to neglect day-hiking the White Rim Rocks, Table Rock Overlook, or the rim at Blackwater River Gorge.
    fs.usda.gov/mnf


    Image credit: Getty

  • Mt. Rogers NRA via Hurricane Creek Road, North Carolina
    Most know it as the highest country they’ll see from North Carolina to New Hampshire. What they may not know? Car campers can get the same grand experience for less hassle. Drop the 50-pound backpacks and take the highway to the high country by stopping anywhere on the twisting (hence the name) Hurricane Road for access to a 15-mile loop that boasts the best of the grassy balds. It’s the road less travelled, and the high one, at that.
    fs.usda.gov/gwj


    Image credit: wikipedia.org

  • Long Key State Park via the Overseas Highway, Florida
    Hiking can get old; sometimes you’d rather paddle. For a weekend getaway of the coastal variety and quieter version of the Florida Keys that’s no less luxe, stick your head in the sand (and ocean, if snorkeling’s your thing) at any of Long Key’s 60 sites. Canoes and kayaks are aplenty, as are the hot showers and electric power source amenities. Think of it as the getaway from the typical getaway.
    floridastateparks.org/longkey/default.cfm


    Image credit: floridastateparks.org

  • Grand Canyon National Park via Crazy Jug Point, Arizona
    You didn’t think we’d neglect one of the world’s most famous national parks, did you? Nor would we dare lead you astray with one of the busiest parts of the park. With the Colorado River still within view of this cliff-edge site, Crazy Jug is a carside camper’s refuge from the troops of tourists. Find easy access to the Bill Hall Trail less than a mile from camp, and descend to get a peek at the volcanic Mt. Trumbull. (Fear not: It’s about as active as your typical lazy Sunday in front of the tube, if not more peaceful.)
    fs.usda.gov/kaibab


    Image credit: flickr/Irish Typepad

  • As the go-to (weekend) getaway car for fiscally conscious field trips with friends, the 2013 MINI Convertible is your campground racer of choice, allowing you and up to three of your co-pilots to take in all the beauty of nature high and low. And with a fuel efficiency that won’t leave you in the latter, you won’t have to worry about being left stranded (or awkwardly asking to go halfsies on gas expenses).


    Image credit: miniusa.com

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 9

Related Videos

Comments

 15 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username ( settings | log out )

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: "The Joker": Laughing at life's deepest sorrows