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Indian roulette
THE WORLD'S LARGEST DEMOCRACY GOES NUCLEAR, AND GAMBLES THAT IT CAN SURVIVE THE SANCTIONS COMING DOWN ON ITS HEAD.
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BY JONATHAN BRODER
"This is really what we wanted, to become a nuclear power. Now nobody will dare touch India, so there will be peace." The defiant, confident statement by a member of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seemed to sum up the overwhelming support in India for the nuclear weapons tests that have shocked and angered much of the rest of the world.
President Clinton on Wednesday announced a raft of tough economic sanctions on India's Hindu nationalist government and implored other countries to do the same. Clinton suggested India had conducted the underground tests -- five in the past two days -- because it feels "underappreciated in the world as a great power," but called the explosions "unjustified" and warned they had created "a dangerous new instability" in a region already destabilized by Indian-Pakistani rivalries.
One of the great fears is that Pakistan, which has fought three wars with India over the past five decades, will now conduct its own nuclear tests. In a telephone call, Clinton appealed to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to resist the temptation.
The U.S. sanctions halt all American assistance to India, with the exception of humanitarian aid. From now on, the U.S. export of certain defense and technology items to India is prohibited, along with any military financing. The sanctions also end U.S. Export-Import bank credits and loan guarantees to India and bar U.S. banks from extending credit to the Indian government, except for the purchase of food and medicine. Most important, the sanctions, which are required under U.S. law, require the U.S. to vote against any loans to India by international lending institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Clinton also acknowledged that the Indian nuclear tests had caught him by surprise. He said that he had ordered CIA Director George Tenet to conduct a thorough review of the U.S. intelligence community's performance in this episode. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, called the U.S. spy agencies' inability to detect India's preparations for the tests a "colossal failure," especially "in an area that we've been watching for a long time."
Salon spoke with a reporter who has also been watching the region for a long time -- former British Broadcasting Corporation correspondent Mark Tully, in New Delhi, to assess the situation on the ground.
Why is it so important, as the BJP party member said, for India to be a nuclear power?
There's a lot of politics behind this. This is the first time that the BJP has formed a government. It's very important for them to demonstrate that they are different from other parties. Going nuclear has always been part of their agenda. So, in one way, they are just simply addressing that agenda.
Secondly, the government is a very fragile coalition. It has only been in power two months. It's done nothing. Prime Minister Vajpayee desperately needed to show that he is capable of taking decisions. The National Volunteer Corps, which is the hard-line core of the BJP, have been rather bitter in their complaint that the BJP government has not been implementing their nationalist agenda. In the immediate term, the tests have definitely solidified the government politically.
Equally, I think there is a far greater feeling of frustrated nationalism in India, a feeling that India does not command the respect that it should by virtue of its size, by its successes and by the fact that it has remained a democracy. There is frustration that so much attention is paid to China and not enough to India. So there is a populist dimension to these nuclear tests as well.
Everybody is now looking at Pakistan. Are they about to go nuclear in response?
There is tremendous pressure in Pakistan to go nuclear publicly now. But there is one problem with that: Pakistan cannot demonstrate the same nuclear power that India has done. Nobody that I have met believes that Pakistan has a thermonuclear device. Therefore, if Pakistan decides to go nuclear, it could be something of a damp squid. On the other hand, if Pakistan does go nuclear and India signs the Nuclear Test Ban treaty -- which seems to be what it is offering to do -- then this in a way could put a cap on nuclear development in the region. So the developments of the past two days may not be all so depressing. In the long run, of course, if these two countries do convert their nuclear capability into actual armaments, then you do have a very dangerous situation. They're almost at war with each other in Kashmir now.
In explaining their decision to conduct nuclear testing, Indian military leaders have talked about China, not Pakistan, as their biggest military threat. How much of a threat does China actually pose?
Clearly, China is a superior military power to India. But my impression had been that China was not anxious to pick quarrels with India; that it wanted, in fact, to improve relations with India, and to achieve a phased reduction of troops on the disputed borders. These Indian explosions will make it much more difficult for China to maintain that sort of approach.
N E X T+P A G E+| From testing to arming

O N+O T H E R S I T E S Is Pakistan next? Check out the special report at ABCNEWS.com T A B L E+T A L K Cultural illiteracy and the American undergraduate: Are U.S. colleges graduating imbeciles? Sound off in the Education area of Table Talk D A I L Y+Q U O T E Giuliani faces off with NYC cabbies R E C E N T L Y A Starr cannot be extinguished By David Everett Salon uncovers a letter written by the independent counsel detailing the progress of his investigation into 93-year-old Hillary Clinton (05/13/98) Gloves off By Jonathan Broder The fight over the Middle East peace process could get ugly (05/12/98) Changing partners By Carol Lloyd Arianna Huffington spurns Newt and the Republicans, finds liberal friends and cares for the poor (05/11/98) Judicial Watch subpoenas Salon reporters By Jonathan Broder Conservative legal group seeks notes and documents related to Clinton officials and the press (05/08/98) One-man rumor mill bites the dust By David Corn It took the Hubbell tapes disaster to make Dan "Scumbag" Burton part with Clinton-hating ideologue David Bossie (05/07/98) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Browse the Newsreal Archives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
		Indian roulette THE WORLD'S LARGEST DEMOCRACY GOES NUCLEAR, AND GAMBLES THAT IT CAN SURVIVE THE SANCTIONS COMING DOWN ON ITS HEAD. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - BY JONATHAN BRODER "This is really what we wanted, to become a nuclear power. Now nobody will dare touch India, so there will be peace." The defiant, confident statement by a member of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seemed to sum up the overwhelming support in India for the nuclear weapons tests that have shocked and angered much of the rest of the world. President Clinton on Wednesday announced a raft of tough economic sanctions on India's Hindu nationalist government and implored other countries to do the same. Clinton suggested India had conducted the underground tests -- five in the past two days -- because it feels "underappreciated in the world as a great power," but called the explosions "unjustified" and warned they had created "a dangerous new instability" in a region already destabilized by Indian-Pakistani rivalries. One of the great fears is that Pakistan, which has fought three wars with India over the past five decades, will now conduct its own nuclear tests. In a telephone call, Clinton appealed to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to resist the temptation. The U.S. sanctions halt all American assistance to India, with the exception of humanitarian aid. From now on, the U.S. export of certain defense and technology items to India is prohibited, along with any military financing. The sanctions also end U.S. Export-Import bank credits and loan guarantees to India and bar U.S. banks from extending credit to the Indian government, except for the purchase of food and medicine. Most important, the sanctions, which are required under U.S. law, require the U.S. to vote against any loans to India by international lending institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Clinton also acknowledged that the Indian nuclear tests had caught him by surprise. He said that he had ordered CIA Director George Tenet to conduct a thorough review of the U.S. intelligence community's performance in this episode. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, called the U.S. spy agencies' inability to detect India's preparations for the tests a "colossal failure," especially "in an area that we've been watching for a long time." Salon spoke with a reporter who has also been watching the region for a long time -- former British Broadcasting Corporation correspondent Mark Tully, in New Delhi, to assess the situation on the ground. Why is it so important, as the BJP party member said, for India to be a nuclear power? There's a lot of politics behind this. This is the first time that the BJP has formed a government. It's very important for them to demonstrate that they are different from other parties. Going nuclear has always been part of their agenda. So, in one way, they are just simply addressing that agenda. Secondly, the government is a very fragile coalition. It has only been in power two months. It's done nothing. Prime Minister Vajpayee desperately needed to show that he is capable of taking decisions. The National Volunteer Corps, which is the hard-line core of the BJP, have been rather bitter in their complaint that the BJP government has not been implementing their nationalist agenda. In the immediate term, the tests have definitely solidified the government politically. Equally, I think there is a far greater feeling of frustrated nationalism in India, a feeling that India does not command the respect that it should by virtue of its size, by its successes and by the fact that it has remained a democracy. There is frustration that so much attention is paid to China and not enough to India. So there is a populist dimension to these nuclear tests as well. Everybody is now looking at Pakistan. Are they about to go nuclear in response? There is tremendous pressure in Pakistan to go nuclear publicly now. But there is one problem with that: Pakistan cannot demonstrate the same nuclear power that India has done. Nobody that I have met believes that Pakistan has a thermonuclear device. Therefore, if Pakistan decides to go nuclear, it could be something of a damp squid. On the other hand, if Pakistan does go nuclear and India signs the Nuclear Test Ban treaty -- which seems to be what it is offering to do -- then this in a way could put a cap on nuclear development in the region. So the developments of the past two days may not be all so depressing. In the long run, of course, if these two countries do convert their nuclear capability into actual armaments, then you do have a very dangerous situation. They're almost at war with each other in Kashmir now. In explaining their decision to conduct nuclear testing, Indian military leaders have talked about China, not Pakistan, as their biggest military threat. How much of a threat does China actually pose? Clearly, China is a superior military power to India. But my impression had been that China was not anxious to pick quarrels with India; that it wanted, in fact, to improve relations with India, and to achieve a phased reduction of troops on the disputed borders. These Indian explosions will make it much more difficult for China to maintain that sort of approach. N E X T+P A G E+\| From testing to arming