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INDIAN ROULETTE | PAGE 2 OF 2
You mentioned that Indian leaders indicated they are now considering signing the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. What are the chances of that happening?
I would think the chances are very good. But in doing this, India will want to make some sort of statement -- that it does not regard it as a satisfactory treaty, that India believes that its policy, which calls for universal nuclear disarmament, is the answer to the problem. And even though it is now a member of the nuclear club, India will continue to say that the treaty remains discriminatory. After all, although it will be a member of the club, it will be a rather minor member, compared with the United States.
These same Indian leaders are also indicating that the BJP government will begin placing nuclear warheads on missiles. These seem to be conflicting signals.
I don't think they are conflicting signals. On one hand, they're talking about the Test Ban Treaty. But nuclear non-proliferation is another thing entirely, and their attitude to that is far less clear. At present, it looks to me as though India is in such a mood that despite the opposition to its doing so, it will militarize these explosions. That is to say, it will start placing nuclear warheads on its missiles.
How seriously will India be affected by the sanctions announced by President Clinton on Wednesday?
India is not as dependent on aid as it once was. These days, it is much more dependent on foreign investment. The great question will be: How will these sanctions affect the foreign investment atmosphere? The United States not granting Ex-Im bank credit clearance to exporters to India could be a bit of a problem, but it won't affect people who want to invest in the country. So the hope among Indians is that, being such a large and potentially lucrative market, businessmen will say, "Well, we don't care what the government says. We're still going to go to India and do business." But if that is to happen, these explosions will have to be followed by steps to make the investment climate a lot more attractive.
But under the U.S. sanctions, India also stands to lose World Bank loans, which have totaled some $44 billion so far. How seriously will that affect the Indian economy?
We'll have to see about that one. Yes, America said that it will vote against loans to India, but the World Bank is not just America. India is quite experienced in international diplomacy and will certainly argue against the American vote. Obviously, if World Bank aid is hit, it will hurt. But as I said earlier, aid, be it World Bank aid or country-to-country aid, is no longer the factor in the Indian economy that it was before. Moreover, some countries, including France and Russia, already have indicated that they will not go along with the U.S. sanctions.
Could there be a ripple effect of this possible nuclear arms race that goes beyond the subcontinent -- with Indian or Pakistani nuclear and missile technology now being exported to other troubled third world countries?
Yes, this is a distinct possibility. Although, I think that, under the present circumstances, India would be very reluctant because it would gain no political mileage from doing so. Also, India is not a member of any alliance that might make it think about exporting or cooperating with other countries on nuclear development.
Pakistan, however, is an Islamic country, and indeed, in the early days, the Pakistani bomb was called "the Islamic bomb." I suppose there would be a greater temptation for Pakistan to help some Islamic country which wanted to develop nuclear technology. Moreover, more money could begin flowing from Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries to help Pakistan develop a bigger and better Islamic bomb.
SALON | May 14, 1998
Jonathan Broder is Salon's Washington bureau chief.
Is this the end for nuclear arms control? Join the discussion in the International Issues section of Table Talk.

O N+O T H E R S I T E S Is Pakistan next? Check out the special report at ABCNEWS.com T A B L E+T A L K Cultural illiteracy and the American undergraduate: Are U.S. colleges graduating imbeciles? Sound off in the Education area of Table Talk D A I L Y+Q U O T E Giuliani faces off with NYC cabbies R E C E N T L Y A Starr cannot be extinguished By David Everett Salon uncovers a letter written by the independent counsel detailing the progress of his investigation into 93-year-old Hillary Clinton (05/13/98) Gloves off By Jonathan Broder The fight over the Middle East peace process could get ugly. (05/12/98) Changing partners By Carol Lloyd Arianna Huffington spurns Newt and the Republicans, finds liberal friends and cares for the poor (05/11/98) Judicial Watch subpoenas Salon reporters By Jonathan Broder Conservative legal group seeks notes and documents related to Clinton officials and the press (05/08/98) One-man rumor mill bites the dust By David Corn It took the Hubbell tapes disaster to make Dan "Scumbag" Burton part with Clinton-hating ideologue David Bossie (05/07/98) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Browse the Newsreal Archives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
		INDIAN ROULETTE \| PAGE 2 OF 2 You mentioned that Indian leaders indicated they are now considering signing the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. What are the chances of that happening? I would think the chances are very good. But in doing this, India will want to make some sort of statement -- that it does not regard it as a satisfactory treaty, that India believes that its policy, which calls for universal nuclear disarmament, is the answer to the problem. And even though it is now a member of the nuclear club, India will continue to say that the treaty remains discriminatory. After all, although it will be a member of the club, it will be a rather minor member, compared with the United States. These same Indian leaders are also indicating that the BJP government will begin placing nuclear warheads on missiles. These seem to be conflicting signals. I don't think they are conflicting signals. On one hand, they're talking about the Test Ban Treaty. But nuclear non-proliferation is another thing entirely, and their attitude to that is far less clear. At present, it looks to me as though India is in such a mood that despite the opposition to its doing so, it will militarize these explosions. That is to say, it will start placing nuclear warheads on its missiles. How seriously will India be affected by the sanctions announced by President Clinton on Wednesday? India is not as dependent on aid as it once was. These days, it is much more dependent on foreign investment. The great question will be: How will these sanctions affect the foreign investment atmosphere? The United States not granting Ex-Im bank credit clearance to exporters to India could be a bit of a problem, but it won't affect people who want to invest in the country. So the hope among Indians is that, being such a large and potentially lucrative market, businessmen will say, "Well, we don't care what the government says. We're still going to go to India and do business." But if that is to happen, these explosions will have to be followed by steps to make the investment climate a lot more attractive. But under the U.S. sanctions, India also stands to lose World Bank loans, which have totaled some $44 billion so far. How seriously will that affect the Indian economy? We'll have to see about that one. Yes, America said that it will vote against loans to India, but the World Bank is not just America. India is quite experienced in international diplomacy and will certainly argue against the American vote. Obviously, if World Bank aid is hit, it will hurt. But as I said earlier, aid, be it World Bank aid or country-to-country aid, is no longer the factor in the Indian economy that it was before. Moreover, some countries, including France and Russia, already have indicated that they will not go along with the U.S. sanctions. Could there be a ripple effect of this possible nuclear arms race that goes beyond the subcontinent -- with Indian or Pakistani nuclear and missile technology now being exported to other troubled third world countries? Yes, this is a distinct possibility. Although, I think that, under the present circumstances, India would be very reluctant because it would gain no political mileage from doing so. Also, India is not a member of any alliance that might make it think about exporting or cooperating with other countries on nuclear development. Pakistan, however, is an Islamic country, and indeed, in the early days, the Pakistani bomb was called "the Islamic bomb." I suppose there would be a greater temptation for Pakistan to help some Islamic country which wanted to develop nuclear technology. Moreover, more money could begin flowing from Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries to help Pakistan develop a bigger and better Islamic bomb. SALON \| May 14, 1998 Jonathan Broder is Salon's Washington bureau chief. Is this the end for nuclear arms control? Join the discussion in the International Issues section of Table Talk.