Salon Newsreal | A country amok

O N+O T H E R
S I T E S
Is Pakistan next? Check out the special report at
ABCNEWS.com

A L S O+T O D A Y

"A weapon so powerful, it will destroy the world"
By Sarita Sarvate
The nation of Buddha, the Veddas and Mahatma Gandhi wants to be a nuclear giant

T A B L E+T A L K
Cultural illiteracy and the American undergraduate: Are U.S. colleges graduating imbeciles? Sound off in the Education area of Table Talk

D A I L Y+Q U O T E
No "Seinfeld" for Lenny Kravitz

R E C E N T L Y
Indian roulette
By Jonathan Broder
The world's largest democracy goes nuclear, and gambles that it can survive the sanctions coming down on its head
(05/14/98)
A Starr cannot be extinguished
By David Everett
Salon uncovers a letter written by the independent counsel detailing the progress of his investigation into 93-year-old Hillary Clinton
(05/13/98)
Gloves off
By Jonathan Broder
The fight over the Middle East peace process could get ugly
(05/12/98)
Changing partners
By Carol Lloyd
Arianna Huffington spurns Newt and the Republicans, finds liberal friends and cares for the poor
(05/11/98)
Judicial Watch subpoenas Salon reporters
By Jonathan Broder
Conservative legal group seeks notes and documents related to Clinton officials and the press
(05/08/98)
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A COUNTRY AMOK | PAGE 2 OF 2
What bellwethers should we be looking for as the situation unfolds?
Continued demonstration by students but with an increasing number of other participants. You want to look to see if the burning and looting that are now going on are spontaneous or set off by somebody like Gen. Prabowo. Because the more uproar there is, the more likely that Gen. Prabowo will be called upon to try to put it down, using his troops. That would allow him, in effect, to sideline rivals like Gen. Wiranto and many others.
Another thing you should be looking for is reappointments of officers. I'm talking about provincial commanders, or Gen. Wiranto himself. The rumor now is that Wiranto will be quickly replaced. If that happens, that means that Suharto is getting rid of any officers who represent a reform position or in any way might be a danger to him. If Gen. Wiranto goes, he very well might be replaced by Gen. Prabowo. Under that scenario, Suharto's son-in-law would become the commander of the armed forces. Now, there are some commanders outside of Jakarta who will support Wiranto, although it's not clear that they are about to bring troops in to show support. Basically, it's the politics of the officer corps now.
Given the scope of the unrest, what are the chances that Indonesia's already devastated economy can be stabilized?
Indonesia is getting two kinds of bailout money. One is basically humanitarian aid -- around $750 million in U.S. aid -- to support purchase of rice and so on. The other funds -- totaling $43 billion -- are coming from the IMF and are being distributed slowly, $1 billion per month, according to the last agreement. Additional payments depend on how quickly Indonesia fulfills the conditions set by the IMF. That is, getting rid of monopolies, strengthening the banking system and so on. I think the humanitarian aid makes good sense, simply because it's right to help people. But the IMF support for Indonesia is a mistake. They want to achieve stabilization of the currency, of the economy generally, and I think that's impossible. The cost of trying to stabilize it in the current situation -- the mayhem and the number of deaths -- is just too great.
Is there any indication that Suharto is breaking up the monopolies?
No, he's not breaking up the monopolies belonging to his own children, nor is he breaking up the monopolies of his closest friends. One of the major monopoly holders is a man named Bob Hassan, who runs the plywood monopoly. They were supposed to break that up, but now it's been announced that it will continue. Moreover, Bob Hassan, who is not very well liked, is now a member of the cabinet.
And the tranches of IMF money continue to flow into Indonesia despite this?
Well, $1 billion has already been given this month to bolster the rupia, the Indonesia currency. That went into the Bank of Indonesia, which is headed by someone very close to Suharto. Suharto himself has a great deal of influence on the bank's decisions. The IMF will have to make a decision about the next tranche at the end of the month.
You said before that Suharto is finished. What kind of regime do you think will succeed him?
No matter how it ends, the military is going to play a big role in any regime that comes afterwards. They have long been engaged in politics, and they don't want to give that up. There is probably no choice but to use the army because the political parties that exist are hopelessly weak or fake, including the regime party. The institutions that would be required to make for a stable change simply don't exist. In effect, the whole institutional infrastructure of Indonesia has been destroyed. The courts are corrupt and usable only by the government, and the bureaucracy itself represents one big political party.
This is a regime that has been very greedy, very oppressive; it has allowed very little opportunity for anybody to organize or speak out, and the price that's being paid is the kind of problems we see now. There's really no way to bring about peaceful change.
SALON | May 15, 1998
Jonathan Broder is Salon's Washington bureau chief.

O N+O T H E R S I T E S Is Pakistan next? Check out the special report at ABCNEWS.com A L S O+T O D A Y "A weapon so powerful, it will destroy the world" By Sarita Sarvate The nation of Buddha, the Veddas and Mahatma Gandhi wants to be a nuclear giant T A B L E+T A L K Cultural illiteracy and the American undergraduate: Are U.S. colleges graduating imbeciles? Sound off in the Education area of Table Talk D A I L Y+Q U O T E No "Seinfeld" for Lenny Kravitz R E C E N T L Y Indian roulette By Jonathan Broder The world's largest democracy goes nuclear, and gambles that it can survive the sanctions coming down on its head (05/14/98) A Starr cannot be extinguished By David Everett Salon uncovers a letter written by the independent counsel detailing the progress of his investigation into 93-year-old Hillary Clinton (05/13/98) Gloves off By Jonathan Broder The fight over the Middle East peace process could get ugly (05/12/98) Changing partners By Carol Lloyd Arianna Huffington spurns Newt and the Republicans, finds liberal friends and cares for the poor (05/11/98) Judicial Watch subpoenas Salon reporters By Jonathan Broder Conservative legal group seeks notes and documents related to Clinton officials and the press (05/08/98) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Browse the Newsreal Archives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
		A COUNTRY AMOK \| PAGE 2 OF 2 What bellwethers should we be looking for as the situation unfolds? Continued demonstration by students but with an increasing number of other participants. You want to look to see if the burning and looting that are now going on are spontaneous or set off by somebody like Gen. Prabowo. Because the more uproar there is, the more likely that Gen. Prabowo will be called upon to try to put it down, using his troops. That would allow him, in effect, to sideline rivals like Gen. Wiranto and many others. Another thing you should be looking for is reappointments of officers. I'm talking about provincial commanders, or Gen. Wiranto himself. The rumor now is that Wiranto will be quickly replaced. If that happens, that means that Suharto is getting rid of any officers who represent a reform position or in any way might be a danger to him. If Gen. Wiranto goes, he very well might be replaced by Gen. Prabowo. Under that scenario, Suharto's son-in-law would become the commander of the armed forces. Now, there are some commanders outside of Jakarta who will support Wiranto, although it's not clear that they are about to bring troops in to show support. Basically, it's the politics of the officer corps now. Given the scope of the unrest, what are the chances that Indonesia's already devastated economy can be stabilized? Indonesia is getting two kinds of bailout money. One is basically humanitarian aid -- around $750 million in U.S. aid -- to support purchase of rice and so on. The other funds -- totaling $43 billion -- are coming from the IMF and are being distributed slowly, $1 billion per month, according to the last agreement. Additional payments depend on how quickly Indonesia fulfills the conditions set by the IMF. That is, getting rid of monopolies, strengthening the banking system and so on. I think the humanitarian aid makes good sense, simply because it's right to help people. But the IMF support for Indonesia is a mistake. They want to achieve stabilization of the currency, of the economy generally, and I think that's impossible. The cost of trying to stabilize it in the current situation -- the mayhem and the number of deaths -- is just too great. Is there any indication that Suharto is breaking up the monopolies? No, he's not breaking up the monopolies belonging to his own children, nor is he breaking up the monopolies of his closest friends. One of the major monopoly holders is a man named Bob Hassan, who runs the plywood monopoly. They were supposed to break that up, but now it's been announced that it will continue. Moreover, Bob Hassan, who is not very well liked, is now a member of the cabinet. And the tranches of IMF money continue to flow into Indonesia despite this? Well, $1 billion has already been given this month to bolster the rupia, the Indonesia currency. That went into the Bank of Indonesia, which is headed by someone very close to Suharto. Suharto himself has a great deal of influence on the bank's decisions. The IMF will have to make a decision about the next tranche at the end of the month. You said before that Suharto is finished. What kind of regime do you think will succeed him? No matter how it ends, the military is going to play a big role in any regime that comes afterwards. They have long been engaged in politics, and they don't want to give that up. There is probably no choice but to use the army because the political parties that exist are hopelessly weak or fake, including the regime party. The institutions that would be required to make for a stable change simply don't exist. In effect, the whole institutional infrastructure of Indonesia has been destroyed. The courts are corrupt and usable only by the government, and the bureaucracy itself represents one big political party. This is a regime that has been very greedy, very oppressive; it has allowed very little opportunity for anybody to organize or speak out, and the price that's being paid is the kind of problems we see now. There's really no way to bring about peaceful change. SALON \| May 15, 1998 Jonathan Broder is Salon's Washington bureau chief.