Salon Newsreal | Backlash '98?

T A B L E+T A L K
The World Series 1998: Padres devotees spar with Yankees fans in Table Talk's Sports area

R E C E N T L Y
No place to hide
By Bruce Shapiro
The arrest of the brutal ex-dictator Pinochet marks the first time since Nuremberg that a head of state faces legal responsibility for his mass killings
(10/21/98)
An open letter to Gore Vidal
By Christopher Hitchens
Why are you defending the Clintons, corporate America's love slaves?
(10/20/98)
Left Hook
By Joe Conason
The fate of New York Sen. Alfonse D'Amato might hinge on how strong the toxic blowback is from Capitol Hill's impeachment stink
(10/20/98)
My heterosexual dilemma
By Richard Rodriguez
Can someone please explain how flirting can lead to murder?
(10/19/98)
Web of hate
By Ros Davidson
Are Internet hate sites "the main culprit" behind the epidemic of hate crimes?
(10/16/98)
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BACKLASH '98? | PAGE 1, 2
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The two big questions about the election come down to who will vote, and what will independent voters do. There's good news for Democrats on both counts.
For two months the common wisdom has been that if the Lewinsky mess inspires the Republican base to surge to the polls, Democrats are doomed. But if Democrats get energized by what Clinton defenders call a Republican coup d'état against a popular president, Republicans are in trouble. Most observers have expected the first scenario.
Two weeks ago, Wall Street Journal columnist Gerald Seib predicted that public opposition to impeachment wouldn't help Democrats in upcoming elections, because Clinton supporters tended not to vote. Likely voters, Seib observed, were "older, richer, more conservative, more Southern and more Republican than the overall population" -- and more likely to support pushing on with the impeachment proceedings. "The opinions of the millions of Americans who have checked out of the electoral process by failing to vote don't really count for very much," sniffed Seib.
But the Pew Research Center poll released Wednesday shows that this year, the base of likely voters is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. While in October 1994 -- just before the Republican congressional landslide -- polls gave Republicans a 40 percent to 30 percent advantage, the Pew poll found Democrats and Republicans each make up 35 percent of the likely electorate this fall.
Other Democratic pollsters are seeing trends similar to those described by Carville and Greenberg. "I think it's safe to say that Democrats are getting more interested in this election," says Fred Yang, a pollster with Hart Research in Washington, D.C. "Intensity has risen and the percentage of likely voters who are Democrats has too."

Maybe most disturbing for Republicans, independent voters -- who made up more than a quarter of the midterm electorate in 1994 -- "are starting to go the Democrats' way," Yang says. The Pew poll confirms this: It found that independent voters are closer to Democrats than Republicans in their opposition to impeachment and in their disapproval of the way Congress has handled the inquiry debate.
But while voters' impeachment fatigue could help Democrats, some analysts doubt that going aggressively negative against Republicans on the issue is a winning strategy for Democrats. "I really don't think so," says Stephanie Cohen, communications director for Emily's List, which supports women candidates. Cohen says her group's polling -- which, ironically, was conducted by Greenberg and Quinlan -- actually shows that women voters, at least, are turned off by outright partisan attacks on Republicans.
"That kind of tone -- continuing to raise the saber of impeachment with very partisan attacks -- is not what they want," Cohen says. "Our polling shows women want to know who has solutions: Who will fix the schools? What are their plans to improve health care?"
Pollster Al Quinlan acknowledges there's reason for Cohen's concern. "Stephanie is right: Women voters in particular want to hear about issues, not politics," he says. Quinlan, Carville and Greenberg say the best strategy is combining a critique of the impeachment mess with vocal Democratic stands on key issues like education, health care and Social Security.
"And we wouldn't advise a candidate to raise impeachment in certain races -- pretty much anywhere in the South, for instance, and some places in the Southwest. It's best seen as a strategy for Democratic challengers. If it's done well -- and it looks like Jay Inslee did it well -- you'll see a jump."
Impeachment or not, something is stirring the Democratic base. Turnout by women declined by 2 million between the 1992 presidential election and the 1994 midterm race, and more Republican women voted than Democrats, thus erasing the gender gap that had favored Democrats in 1992. But Pew polls show the gender gap is back: Democrats enjoy a 48 to 41 percent edge among women voters.
"Despite what the pundits have been saying -- and they're really a bunch of bed-wetters -- this is a very good climate for the Democrats," insists California Democratic Party consultant Bob Mulholland. "P.T. Barnum said it best: 'If you want to build a crowd, start a fight.'" California Democrats are devoting $6 million to energizing their base, Mulholland says, targeting districts with lots of minority voters and white liberals with absentee ballot campaigns, a get-out-the-vote drive and "mailers with photos of Ken Starr and Newt Gingrich."
Nationally, the AFL-CIO is sinking millions into grass-roots voter turnout strategies. The Women's Vote Project is pledging to bring back the 2 million women who left the rolls in 1994 with an aggressive publicity and voter turnout drive. The national Democratic Party is promising that ads and appearances by Jesse Jackson and Hillary Clinton are planned to boost turnout among women, minorities and liberal loyalists.
Some observers are skeptical that the Democrats really know how to energize their base. "The problem is, they learned some of the wrong lessons from their defeats: They learned to avoid dealing with their base," says elections analyst Curtis Gans. "After going too far toward identity politics in the '80s, they developed this studious, poll-driven, middle-class appeal, and in certain ways narrowed their constituency. So I think the Carville strategy is as good a strategy as the Democrats have right now."
So far, though, the success of Inslee's aggressive campaign strategy hasn't yet produced a storm of copycat advertising. No one interviewed knew of another Democratic candidate readying similar ads. Only Ralph Neas, a Democrat who faces a tough battle to unseat moderate Republican Connie Morella of suburban Maryland, has hit the airwaves with an ad attacking his opponent's impeachment stand, and he ran it before the Inslee results were in.
"Impeachment is not a big issue in this race, ironically," says Beth Davidson, spokeswoman for Cincinnati Mayor Roxanne Qualls, who is trying to oust Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot in a closely watched race. "Chabot voted against the budget yesterday, which gives us plenty to work with on an issue that's important to our constituents."
But Inslee says his strategy was the right one for his district. Having served in Congress for one term -- he was defeated in the Republican 1994 landslide, thanks largely to his vote for an assault-weapons ban -- he knows the feel of a winning issue. "This didn't come out of polling. I didn't approach this with a lot of campaign sophistication. I'm the one out there listening to people and they're very angry. So my campaign advisors just asked me to think about it -- did I really want to take this on?
"And I told them I did. So we moved ahead together. I knew voters felt strongly about it." In the Seattle area, at least, the polls are proving him right.
SALON | Oct. 22, 1998
Research assistance for this article by Daryl Lindsey and Fiona Morgan.
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E L E C T I O N S _.' 9 8
The mother of all elections Can the favorite daughter of the Christian right knock off the feminist senator in tennis shoes?
By Lori Leibovich
Oct. 28, 1998
Power play A California ballot drive tries to short-circuit a utility industry bailout.
By Harvey Wasserman
Oct. 27, 1998
Favorite Son Can Asian-American voters boost Republican Matt Fong's sagging Senate campaign?
By William Wong
Oct. 27, 1998
The canary The fate of New York Sen. Alfonse D'Amato might hinge on how strong the toxic blowback is from Capitol Hill's impeachment stink.
By Joe Conason
Oct. 20, 1998

T A B L E+T A L K The World Series 1998: Padres devotees spar with Yankees fans in Table Talk's Sports area R E C E N T L Y No place to hide By Bruce Shapiro The arrest of the brutal ex-dictator Pinochet marks the first time since Nuremberg that a head of state faces legal responsibility for his mass killings (10/21/98) An open letter to Gore Vidal By Christopher Hitchens Why are you defending the Clintons, corporate America's love slaves? (10/20/98) Left Hook By Joe Conason The fate of New York Sen. Alfonse D'Amato might hinge on how strong the toxic blowback is from Capitol Hill's impeachment stink (10/20/98) My heterosexual dilemma By Richard Rodriguez Can someone please explain how flirting can lead to murder? (10/19/98) Web of hate By Ros Davidson Are Internet hate sites "the main culprit" behind the epidemic of hate crimes? (10/16/98) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Browse the Newsreal Archives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - S A L O N E M P O R I U M FREE! 12-ounce bag of Salon Blend with a purchase of $30 or more. While supplies last.
		BACKLASH '98? \| PAGE 1, 2 - - - - - - - - - - The two big questions about the election come down to who will vote, and what will independent voters do. There's good news for Democrats on both counts. For two months the common wisdom has been that if the Lewinsky mess inspires the Republican base to surge to the polls, Democrats are doomed. But if Democrats get energized by what Clinton defenders call a Republican coup d'état against a popular president, Republicans are in trouble. Most observers have expected the first scenario. Two weeks ago, Wall Street Journal columnist Gerald Seib predicted that public opposition to impeachment wouldn't help Democrats in upcoming elections, because Clinton supporters tended not to vote. Likely voters, Seib observed, were "older, richer, more conservative, more Southern and more Republican than the overall population" -- and more likely to support pushing on with the impeachment proceedings. "The opinions of the millions of Americans who have checked out of the electoral process by failing to vote don't really count for very much," sniffed Seib. But the Pew Research Center poll released Wednesday shows that this year, the base of likely voters is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. While in October 1994 -- just before the Republican congressional landslide -- polls gave Republicans a 40 percent to 30 percent advantage, the Pew poll found Democrats and Republicans each make up 35 percent of the likely electorate this fall. Other Democratic pollsters are seeing trends similar to those described by Carville and Greenberg. "I think it's safe to say that Democrats are getting more interested in this election," says Fred Yang, a pollster with Hart Research in Washington, D.C. "Intensity has risen and the percentage of likely voters who are Democrats has too." Maybe most disturbing for Republicans, independent voters -- who made up more than a quarter of the midterm electorate in 1994 -- "are starting to go the Democrats' way," Yang says. The Pew poll confirms this: It found that independent voters are closer to Democrats than Republicans in their opposition to impeachment and in their disapproval of the way Congress has handled the inquiry debate. But while voters' impeachment fatigue could help Democrats, some analysts doubt that going aggressively negative against Republicans on the issue is a winning strategy for Democrats. "I really don't think so," says Stephanie Cohen, communications director for Emily's List, which supports women candidates. Cohen says her group's polling -- which, ironically, was conducted by Greenberg and Quinlan -- actually shows that women voters, at least, are turned off by outright partisan attacks on Republicans. "That kind of tone -- continuing to raise the saber of impeachment with very partisan attacks -- is not what they want," Cohen says. "Our polling shows women want to know who has solutions: Who will fix the schools? What are their plans to improve health care?" Pollster Al Quinlan acknowledges there's reason for Cohen's concern. "Stephanie is right: Women voters in particular want to hear about issues, not politics," he says. Quinlan, Carville and Greenberg say the best strategy is combining a critique of the impeachment mess with vocal Democratic stands on key issues like education, health care and Social Security. "And we wouldn't advise a candidate to raise impeachment in certain races -- pretty much anywhere in the South, for instance, and some places in the Southwest. It's best seen as a strategy for Democratic challengers. If it's done well -- and it looks like Jay Inslee did it well -- you'll see a jump." Impeachment or not, something is stirring the Democratic base. Turnout by women declined by 2 million between the 1992 presidential election and the 1994 midterm race, and more Republican women voted than Democrats, thus erasing the gender gap that had favored Democrats in 1992. But Pew polls show the gender gap is back: Democrats enjoy a 48 to 41 percent edge among women voters. "Despite what the pundits have been saying -- and they're really a bunch of bed-wetters -- this is a very good climate for the Democrats," insists California Democratic Party consultant Bob Mulholland. "P.T. Barnum said it best: 'If you want to build a crowd, start a fight.'" California Democrats are devoting $6 million to energizing their base, Mulholland says, targeting districts with lots of minority voters and white liberals with absentee ballot campaigns, a get-out-the-vote drive and "mailers with photos of Ken Starr and Newt Gingrich." Nationally, the AFL-CIO is sinking millions into grass-roots voter turnout strategies. The Women's Vote Project is pledging to bring back the 2 million women who left the rolls in 1994 with an aggressive publicity and voter turnout drive. The national Democratic Party is promising that ads and appearances by Jesse Jackson and Hillary Clinton are planned to boost turnout among women, minorities and liberal loyalists. Some observers are skeptical that the Democrats really know how to energize their base. "The problem is, they learned some of the wrong lessons from their defeats: They learned to avoid dealing with their base," says elections analyst Curtis Gans. "After going too far toward identity politics in the '80s, they developed this studious, poll-driven, middle-class appeal, and in certain ways narrowed their constituency. So I think the Carville strategy is as good a strategy as the Democrats have right now." So far, though, the success of Inslee's aggressive campaign strategy hasn't yet produced a storm of copycat advertising. No one interviewed knew of another Democratic candidate readying similar ads. Only Ralph Neas, a Democrat who faces a tough battle to unseat moderate Republican Connie Morella of suburban Maryland, has hit the airwaves with an ad attacking his opponent's impeachment stand, and he ran it before the Inslee results were in. "Impeachment is not a big issue in this race, ironically," says Beth Davidson, spokeswoman for Cincinnati Mayor Roxanne Qualls, who is trying to oust Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot in a closely watched race. "Chabot voted against the budget yesterday, which gives us plenty to work with on an issue that's important to our constituents." But Inslee says his strategy was the right one for his district. Having served in Congress for one term -- he was defeated in the Republican 1994 landslide, thanks largely to his vote for an assault-weapons ban -- he knows the feel of a winning issue. "This didn't come out of polling. I didn't approach this with a lot of campaign sophistication. I'm the one out there listening to people and they're very angry. So my campaign advisors just asked me to think about it -- did I really want to take this on? "And I told them I did. So we moved ahead together. I knew voters felt strongly about it." In the Seattle area, at least, the polls are proving him right. SALON \| Oct. 22, 1998 Research assistance for this article by Daryl Lindsey and Fiona Morgan. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E L E C T I O N S _.' 9 8 The mother of all elections Can the favorite daughter of the Christian right knock off the feminist senator in tennis shoes? By Lori Leibovich Oct. 28, 1998 Power play A California ballot drive tries to short-circuit a utility industry bailout. By Harvey Wasserman Oct. 27, 1998 Favorite Son Can Asian-American voters boost Republican Matt Fong's sagging Senate campaign? By William Wong Oct. 27, 1998 The canary The fate of New York Sen. Alfonse D'Amato might hinge on how strong the toxic blowback is from Capitol Hill's impeachment stink. By Joe Conason Oct. 20, 1998