Salon Newsreal | Reaping the whirlwind

A L S O+T O D A Y

The few, the proud, the relieved
By Jeff Stein
President Clinton risked a revolt within the military if he pulled back from the brink with Iraq once again
(12/17/98)

Baghdad bombing: The right move, the wrong time
By Lori Leibovich
A foreign policy expert says Clinton should have struck Baghdad sooner -- and argues that U.S. sanctions should be lifted
(12/17/98)

President Clinton's statement
Text of the president's briefing on Iraqi airstrikes
(12/17/98)
Tony Blair's Address
Text of the British prime minister's remarks on Baghdad bombings
(12/17/98)

T A B L E+T A L K
Are you outraged over the impeachment drive? Vent your frustration in the Politics area of Table Talk

R E C E N T L Y
The whole world is watching -- again
By Todd Gitlin
Left-wing literati turn out to block impeachment
(12/16/98)
Peace, the movie
By Daryl Lindsey
Clinton's three-day visit to the Middle East was full of symbols and photo ops, but precious little in the way of content
(12/16/98)
Here comes the judge
By Jeff Stein
Chief Justice William Rehnquist's writings on impeachment contain good news for President Clinton
(12/16/98)
City of self-hate
By Greg Critser
Why Los Angeles elites love being bashed by Mike Davis
(12/15/98)
A kinder, gentler lynch mob
By Gary Kamiya
The GOP confirms the most brain-dead radical stereotypes from the '60s
(12/15/98)
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REAPING THE WHIRLWIND | PAGE 1, 2
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Much has been made of the pressure being applied by Tom DeLay, the House Majority Whip, who is now, for all practical purposes, the acting speaker. But for many of the moderates, DeLay's fierce discipline appears to be less important than the overwhelming pressure being applied by conservative activists around the country. As GOP campaign consultant Jay Severin told me early Wednesday, Republican activists are making it clear that they will "never forgive and never forget" a vote against impeachment.
All week, wavering moderates have been told how they would face well-financed primary opponents in 2000 and become persona non grata in party ranks. And if they had any hopes of seeking higher office later on, forget it. As Severin put it, the moderates are being told to choose between getting "a broken arm, for sure, today or maybe getting a broken arm two years from now" at the polls. Given that choice, most are making an uneasy walk to the microphone and signing on to the impeachment express, hoping voters forget about breaking their arms in 2000. As soon as the impeachment vote is concluded, Severin told me, he plans to conduct a nationwide search for candidates who are willing to run against Republicans who say that they believe Clinton lied under oath and yet still vote against impeachment. He even plans to offer his services pro bono.
Of course, few of those who have opted for impeachment would speak openly about the pressure or the threats they're receiving. But look at the discipline being meted out to those who've decided not to play ball: Amo Houghton and Peter King, both of New York. Of the roughly two dozen GOP moderates who only recently seemed inclined to vote against impeachment, only those two have remained unwavering opponents of impeachment.
Soon after Houghton announced in a New York Times editorial Dec. 9 that he would oppose impeachment, a die-hard conservative announced he'd be challenging Houghton for his seat in 2000. King, who has been the most prominent Republican fighting against impeachment, has come under even more withering fire, in part perhaps because he is actually rather conservative, on policy grounds. It was one thing when a couple dozen other House Republicans stood with King in opposition to impeachment. But now that he stands almost alone, all of the animus is being directed at him, and the depth of the anger is palpable.
King went on television Tuesday evening, hanging tough but clearly wearied by the mounting attacks from within his own party. He told CNBC that anonymous Republicans in one Capitol Hill newsletter, Congress Daily, had threatened to make the next two years the "longest two years of my life." And plans are already being made to challenge King when he next runs for reelection in 2000. Jay Severin, who has offered his services to any King challenger, says, "Peter King should be impeached!"
Given the stiff rebuke the Republicans received at the polls last month, it may seem difficult to comprehend why they would willingly line up for impeachment once again only little more than a month later. But consultants and party regulars have been telling wavering moderates that despite the fact that two-thirds of the public opposes impeachment, the remaining one-third votes in disproportionately greater numbers. The zeal of the pro-impeachment forces, in other words, will make up for their relative lack of numbers. Of course, the only problem with this advice is that it is more or less the same reasoning that kept Republicans hammering away at Clinton in last month's election, which led to their drubbing. Some GOP moderates are starting to realize that whatever they do, Clinton will probably end up keeping his job, thanks to the Senate -- and maybe Saddam Hussein -- but they may not.
It may well be true that voters in swing districts will not be focusing on this impeachment vote when November 2000 rolls around. But the danger is really not so much that individual members will be punished. The threat for the Republicans is rather that by moving ahead with impeachment, a majority of voters in California, the Midwest and the Northeast may finally conclude that the Republican Party simply cannot be trusted to govern responsibly or remain sensitive to the wishes of the majority of the people.
The strike against Iraq has raised the stakes for both sides. Clinton could be vulnerable to perceptions that he used the crisis with Iraq to get him off the hook in the House, although prominent leaders in both parties -- including House Judiciary Committee Chairman Henry Hyde and outgoing Speaker Newt Gingrich -- have disputed such claims. But if Republicans continue to move against a still-popular president during a military crisis, they risk a political backlash that voters will remember in November 2000.
SALON | Dec. 17, 1998
Joshua Micah Marshall is associate editor of the American Prospect.

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A L S O+T O D A Y The few, the proud, the relieved By Jeff Stein President Clinton risked a revolt within the military if he pulled back from the brink with Iraq once again (12/17/98) Baghdad bombing: The right move, the wrong time By Lori Leibovich A foreign policy expert says Clinton should have struck Baghdad sooner -- and argues that U.S. sanctions should be lifted (12/17/98) President Clinton's statement Text of the president's briefing on Iraqi airstrikes (12/17/98) Tony Blair's Address Text of the British prime minister's remarks on Baghdad bombings (12/17/98) T A B L E+T A L K Are you outraged over the impeachment drive? Vent your frustration in the Politics area of Table Talk R E C E N T L Y The whole world is watching -- again By Todd Gitlin Left-wing literati turn out to block impeachment (12/16/98) Peace, the movie By Daryl Lindsey Clinton's three-day visit to the Middle East was full of symbols and photo ops, but precious little in the way of content (12/16/98) Here comes the judge By Jeff Stein Chief Justice William Rehnquist's writings on impeachment contain good news for President Clinton (12/16/98) City of self-hate By Greg Critser Why Los Angeles elites love being bashed by Mike Davis (12/15/98) A kinder, gentler lynch mob By Gary Kamiya The GOP confirms the most brain-dead radical stereotypes from the '60s (12/15/98) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Browse the Newsreal Archives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
		REAPING THE WHIRLWIND \| PAGE 1, 2 - - - - - - - - - - Much has been made of the pressure being applied by Tom DeLay, the House Majority Whip, who is now, for all practical purposes, the acting speaker. But for many of the moderates, DeLay's fierce discipline appears to be less important than the overwhelming pressure being applied by conservative activists around the country. As GOP campaign consultant Jay Severin told me early Wednesday, Republican activists are making it clear that they will "never forgive and never forget" a vote against impeachment. All week, wavering moderates have been told how they would face well-financed primary opponents in 2000 and become persona non grata in party ranks. And if they had any hopes of seeking higher office later on, forget it. As Severin put it, the moderates are being told to choose between getting "a broken arm, for sure, today or maybe getting a broken arm two years from now" at the polls. Given that choice, most are making an uneasy walk to the microphone and signing on to the impeachment express, hoping voters forget about breaking their arms in 2000. As soon as the impeachment vote is concluded, Severin told me, he plans to conduct a nationwide search for candidates who are willing to run against Republicans who say that they believe Clinton lied under oath and yet still vote against impeachment. He even plans to offer his services pro bono. Of course, few of those who have opted for impeachment would speak openly about the pressure or the threats they're receiving. But look at the discipline being meted out to those who've decided not to play ball: Amo Houghton and Peter King, both of New York. Of the roughly two dozen GOP moderates who only recently seemed inclined to vote against impeachment, only those two have remained unwavering opponents of impeachment. Soon after Houghton announced in a New York Times editorial Dec. 9 that he would oppose impeachment, a die-hard conservative announced he'd be challenging Houghton for his seat in 2000. King, who has been the most prominent Republican fighting against impeachment, has come under even more withering fire, in part perhaps because he is actually rather conservative, on policy grounds. It was one thing when a couple dozen other House Republicans stood with King in opposition to impeachment. But now that he stands almost alone, all of the animus is being directed at him, and the depth of the anger is palpable. King went on television Tuesday evening, hanging tough but clearly wearied by the mounting attacks from within his own party. He told CNBC that anonymous Republicans in one Capitol Hill newsletter, Congress Daily, had threatened to make the next two years the "longest two years of my life." And plans are already being made to challenge King when he next runs for reelection in 2000. Jay Severin, who has offered his services to any King challenger, says, "Peter King should be impeached!" Given the stiff rebuke the Republicans received at the polls last month, it may seem difficult to comprehend why they would willingly line up for impeachment once again only little more than a month later. But consultants and party regulars have been telling wavering moderates that despite the fact that two-thirds of the public opposes impeachment, the remaining one-third votes in disproportionately greater numbers. The zeal of the pro-impeachment forces, in other words, will make up for their relative lack of numbers. Of course, the only problem with this advice is that it is more or less the same reasoning that kept Republicans hammering away at Clinton in last month's election, which led to their drubbing. Some GOP moderates are starting to realize that whatever they do, Clinton will probably end up keeping his job, thanks to the Senate -- and maybe Saddam Hussein -- but they may not. It may well be true that voters in swing districts will not be focusing on this impeachment vote when November 2000 rolls around. But the danger is really not so much that individual members will be punished. The threat for the Republicans is rather that by moving ahead with impeachment, a majority of voters in California, the Midwest and the Northeast may finally conclude that the Republican Party simply cannot be trusted to govern responsibly or remain sensitive to the wishes of the majority of the people. The strike against Iraq has raised the stakes for both sides. Clinton could be vulnerable to perceptions that he used the crisis with Iraq to get him off the hook in the House, although prominent leaders in both parties -- including House Judiciary Committee Chairman Henry Hyde and outgoing Speaker Newt Gingrich -- have disputed such claims. But if Republicans continue to move against a still-popular president during a military crisis, they risk a political backlash that voters will remember in November 2000. SALON \| Dec. 17, 1998 Joshua Micah Marshall is associate editor of the American Prospect. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Become a Salon member. Click here.