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CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS: "CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD" | PAGE 1, 2,
Though conservatives remain in control of the state party, California's dynamic political landscape may still alter the message and soften the ideological stand of Republicans in California. One of the most significant changes in recent years is the state's growing Latino population. The party's continuing efforts at damage control among the state's fastest-growing ethnic group could pull the GOP to the center. Latinos now make up 14 percent of the general electorate in California, up from only 7 percent at the beginning of the decade. Many attribute that bump in participation to Gov. Pete Wilson's 1994 racially charged reelection bid, in which he made illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign. In the wake of Wilson's support for ballot measures to abolish affirmative action and curtail social services to undocumented residents, the party has lost significant support from the burgeoning Latino middle class. Many moderate Latinos left the party during the 1994 campaign, and have been slow in coming back. "The simplest thing in the world to do is count the numbers," said GOP strategist Quinn. "Latinos now make up 14 percent of the electorate, and we can't continue to spot Democrats 10 points out of the gate in every general election. That means a Republican simply cannot win in California without one-third of the state's Latino vote." Getting that one-third could be an uphill battle. In spite of significant efforts at Latino outreach, Lungren received just 20 percent of the Latino vote in 1998. "Wilson was not able to differentiate between the legals and illegals in the minds of Latinos," Quinn said. "That's something this party needs to recover from." Among new California voters, more than half of whom are Latino, only one Republican is registered for every three Democrats. Statewide, Republican registration has fallen to a mere 34 percent overall, down from 39 percent in 1992. The party made one important stride toward changing its anti-Latino image after the election with the elevation of moderate Republican Rod Pacheco to leader of the traditionally very conservative Assembly Republican caucus. Pacheco, now one of four Latino Assembly Republicans and the highest ranking Republican Latino in California, has surfaced as the primary spokesman for legislative Republicans. The necessity for Latino outreach among Republicans, and the climb of Latinos like Pacheco through the party ranks, may do more to moderate the party and its message than any other single trend in California politics. Pacheco said even Latinos who register Republican "are, I think, more willing to accept that government can be part of the solution rather than simply a problem." This fact has not been lost on many prospective presidential nominees, including a guy in Texas named Bush who received more than 40 percent of the Latino vote in his state, and who has repeatedly summoned Pacheco to Austin to plot California strategy. Will Latino leaders help the party moderate its more extreme stands? "I don't think it's necessarily a matter of moderation as much as it is tolerance," said Pacheco spokesman Mike Madrid, a former political director for the state party and now a state party delegate. "We have to end the mentality of 'you're either for us or against us.'"
Anthony York is associate editor of California Journal. |
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