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Bomb kills 80 in Pakistan; Hillary 3 hours away

Market bomb possibly timed with Secretary of State visit

A car bomb tore through a market popular with women in northwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, killing 86 people hours after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton arrived in the country to show American support for its campaign against Islamist militants.

More than 200 people were wounded in the blast in the main northwestern city of Peshawar, the deadliest in a surge of attacks this month. The government blamed militants seeking to avenge an army offensive launched this month against al-Qaida and Taliban in their stronghold close to the Afghan border.

The blast hit a market selling bangles, dresses and toys in an old part of town crisscrossed with narrow alleys. It set scores of shops on fire, collapsed buildings, including a mosque, and sent a cloud of gray smoke over the city. TV footage showed wounded people sitting amid the debris as people grabbed at the wreckage, trying to pull out survivors before carrying them to a hospital.

One two-story building collapsed as firefighters doused it with water.

Clinton, on her first visit to Pakistan as secretary of state, was three hours' drive away in the capital, Islamabad, when the blast took place. Speaking to reporters, she praised the army's anti-Taliban offensive in South Waziristan and offered U.S. support.

"I want you to know that this fight is not Pakistan's alone," she said in remarks carried live on Pakistani news channels. "This is our struggle as well."

Sahib Gul, a doctor at a nearby hospital, said 86 people were killed and more than 200 injured. Many of the victims were women and children.

No group claimed responsibility for the bombing, but that is not unusual, especially when the victims are Pakistani civilians.

Three bombs have exploded in Peshawar this month, including another one that killed more than 50 people, part of a barrage of at least 10 major attacks across the country that have killed some 250 people. Most have targeted security forces, but some bombs have gone off in public places, apparently to sow fear and expose the weakness of the government.

The Taliban have warned Pakistan that they would stage more attacks if the army does not end a new ground offensive in the South Waziristan tribal region, where the military has dispatched some 30,000 troops to flush out insurgents. South Waziristan is a major base for the Pakistani Taliban and other foreign militants.

North West Frontier Province Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain blamed the militants for Wednesday's attack.

"We are hitting them at their center of terrorism, and they are hitting back targeting Peshawar," he said. "This is a tough time for us. We are picking up the bodies of our women and children, but we will follow these terrorists and eliminate them."

Obama's foreign policy report card

You'd never know it from the MSM, but he deserves high grades for his work so far in Iran, Iraq and Pakistan
For more from Juan Cole, visit his blog Informed Comment.
Salon composite/Reuters image
President Barack Obama

Why can't the administration of President Barack Obama get the word out about its policy successes? President Obama campaigned on an ambitious platform of withdrawing from Iraq, engaging Iran on its nuclear program and persuading the Pakistani government to take on the Taliban and al-Qaida. Despite the charge by critics from both the right and the left in the wake of his winning the Nobel Peace Prize that he has accomplished little so far, in fact he has already set in motion significant change on several of these fronts -- despite the enormous domestic tasks that have inevitably preoccupied his administration. Yet you'd never hear about these successes from the mainstream media.

When Obama came into office in January, 142,000 U.S. troops were in Iraq, conducting regular patrols of the major cities. His Republican rivals were dead set against U.S. withdrawal on a strict timetable. He faced something close to an insurrection from some of his commanders in the field, such as Gen. Ray Odierno, who opposed a quick departure from Iraq. Moreover, Obama assumed the presidency at a time when Iran and the U.S. were virtually on a war footing and there had been no direct talks between the two countries on most of the major issues dividing them. In February, the government of Pakistan virtually ceded the Swat Valley and the Malakand Division to the Pakistani Taliban of Maulvi Fazlullah, allowing the imposition of the latter's fundamentalist version of Islamic law on residents, and Islamabad had no stomach for taking on the increasingly bold extremists.

Eight months later, it is a different world. While it is still early in his presidency, and there is too much work unfinished to give him an overall grade, it's already apparent he's outperforming his predecessor.

Iraq: B Obama has decisively won the argument over Iraq policy. Despite the massive bombings in Baghdad on Sunday -- the most deadly since 2007 -- the U.S. troop withdrawal is ahead of schedule and seems unlikely to be halted. One reason is that the security situation in Iraq, while shaky, did not deteriorate when U.S. troops ceased their urban patrols on June 30 (a date Iraqis celebrated as "Sovereignty Day"). Occasional big explosions obscure the reality of reduced guerrilla attacks. According to the Pentagon, civilian casualties have been steadily declining since late summer. Even John McCain said that Sunday's carnage should not delay the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq -- a 180-degree turn in policy for the former presidential candidate.

The process of U.S. disentanglement from Iraq has been gradual, generating no big headlines, no "Obama brings 22,000 troops out of Iraq, cuts war spending by $30 billion." But, in fact, troop levels are down to about 120,000 from 142,000 early this year, and spending on the war has fallen, from $180 billion in 2008 to $150 billion this year. Many things could still go wrong in Iraq, affecting the ability of the U.S. to meet the current timetable, but so far the Iraqi security forces are generally keeping order (there were horrific bombings when the U.S. was in control, too). He can be faulted for not working closely enough with the Nouri al-Maliki government to ease the transition, hence a grade of B instead of an A.

Iran: A There has also been movement on Iran. On Oct. 1 the administration fulfilled its campaign pledge by joining other members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany in Geneva to jawbone with Iran on the nuclear issue. As a result, Iran accepted that a United Nations inspection team would visit the newly announced enrichment facility near Qom, and on Monday inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived at the Fardo plant. The acceptance of inspectors is an excellent sign. As long as Tehran remains willing to allow U.N. inspections, both at Natanz near Isfahan and at Fardo (which is not operational but could eventually house 3,000 centrifuges), neither facility can be used to produce fissionable material. Obama has changed the West's dynamics with Iran by direct negotiation, something that 63 percent of the American people support.

Pakistan: B Then there is Pakistan. The Obama administration came into office determined to whittle away the "state's rights" prerogatives of the Pashtuns, who form about 12 percent of the Pakistani population, of which the tiny minority of Taliban had taken advantage. From its inception, the Pakistani federal government had inherited from the British Empire a policy of not attempting to rule the tribal Pashtuns too heavy-handedly. In addition, the Pakistani military uses some Taliban and other guerrilla groups to project influence in the Pashtun areas of neighboring Afghanistan, making the generals reluctant to move against them. In spring-summer, the Obama administration convinced the Pakistani government to launch a major military operation against the Taliban in the Swat Valley. Despite temporarily displacing 2 million residents, the operation enjoyed substantial success and gained wide popular support from a Pakistani population -- including most Pashtuns -- increasingly appalled at the brutality of Taliban rule. In October, the military launched a similar operation against the Taliban in South Waziristan, despite a raft of bombings aimed by the militants at deterring the federal government from coming after them.

Obama has, moreover, signed a $7.5 billion civilian aid package that encourages economic, educational and medical development and puts pressure on the civilian government to keep the military under its control. The Bush administration gave most of its aid in the form of military weaponry or support, something of which polling shows the Pakistani public disapproves. Obama intends to build clinics and schools and to develop an infrastructure that might help fight militancy more effectively than any drone strikes can.

Obama's Pakistan approach, of building state capacity and improving the economy and basic services, while dealing with the Pakistani Taliban through large-scale military operations, may or may not succeed. But compared to his predecessor's policy of just handing over billions to corrupt military officers, some of whom have links to factions of militants, Obama's policies have been far more coherent. His use of unmanned predator drones to kill suspected al-Qaida operatives and the aid bill's demand for the supremacy of civilian rule over the military are both unpopular in some quarters, because of fears that the U.S. is turning the country into a sort of colony and infringing against its sovereignty. Obama may need to be less heavy-handed in the future to avoid a popular backlash. If not for this insensitivity to Pakistani popular opinion, he might deserve an A. The Swat and South Waziristan campaigns, at least, appear to have the support of the Pakistani public.

The administration has not succeeded everywhere. The president has yet to make a determination on his Afghanistan policy, and so far little progress has been made on a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A verdict is still outstanding about his performance in those two regions, leading to two grades of "incomplete." But Obama's withdrawal from Iraq is actually ahead of schedule, his direct engagement with Iran is producing some tentative results, and he has strong-armed the Pakistani state into owning the problem of the Pakistani Taliban, while instituting a major civilian aid program. Far from accomplishing nothing in his first eight months, Obama has been a whirlwind of activity and has already gained a place in the Iraqi, Iranian and Pakistani history books. He receives his lowest grade for his failure to force America's chattering classes to take notice. While it is a bit of a relief not to be subjected to the constant propaganda of the Bush administration about its creation of shining cities on a hill abroad, the Obama administration has gone too far in the opposite direction, hiding its light beneath a bushel.

Debate over Afghanistan is deja vu all over again

Joe Lieberman hates to say it, but Afghanistan is just like Nazi Germany

Remember 2002 and 2003? Those were some pretty good times. Rudy Giuliani was knighted. “A Beautiful Mind” won Best Picture. The U.S. invaded Iraq.

In case you’d forgotten the basic tenor of the arguments of those years, Afghanistan is here to help you remember. As the Taliban has regained strength and the White House weighs sending thousands more troops, Afghanistan has lost its status as “the Good War.” Instead, the conflict is beginning to polarize American politics in a way that's all too familiar.

So, in an unsurprising move, MoveOn.org today will send out an email calling for the president to withdraw from Afghanistan, echoing an increasingly prevalent position on the American left. Meanwhile, precisely on cue, Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., yesterday made his case for maintaining an American presence in the country. Said the senator:

It's more like, and I hate to use the analogy, it is like the Second World War. Shortly after it was over, if the Nazis began to form again and tried to take back Germany from a new democratic government, what would we have done? We would not have stood by and let it happen!

I’m sure it’s just killing Lieberman, this duty to say these things. Just like it did on May 15, 2008, when he said that President Bush’s use of the word of “appeasement” to describe Democrats was “exactly right." Or three days later, when Lieberman took to the Wall Street Journal to accuse his fellow Democrats of betraying their party's noble Hitler-fighting lineage.

Beginning in the 1940s, the Democratic Party was forced to confront two of the most dangerous enemies our nation has ever faced: Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. In response, Democrats under Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy forged and conducted a foreign policy that was principled, internationalist, strong and successful.

Bin Laden: U.S. support of Israel led to 9/11

Afghanistan's election mess could mean trouble for the U.S. Video
For more from Juan Cole, visit his blog Informed Comment.

Gen. Stanley McChrystal has admitted that there is no significant al-Qaida presence in Afghanistan. He implies that al-Qaida does maintain some links to the guerrillas fighting the Karzai government. But McChrystal's statement rather undermines the hawkish argument of Lindsey Graham, John McCain and Joe Lieberman that the Afghanistan war is being fought against al-Qaida presence in Afghanistan and only needs more troops and firepower to succeed. In my own view, the Afghanistan training camps were not that important to al-Qaida's 9/11 plot. The key had been recruiting an Egyptian and a Lebanese engineer in Hamburg, Germany, and getting them flight training in the U.S.

Meanwhile, the real al-Qaida is threatening a war of attritition against U.S. troops in the Middle East. The message was far more oriented toward the Israeli-Palestinian issue than toward Afghanistan, which seems to be positioned as the place where U.S. troops are punished for alleged American misdeeds elsewhere. Whenever al-Qaida foregrounds the Israeli-Palestinian issue, it is a sign of the organization's weakness. Everyone knows that they haven't done anything practical for the Palestinians, and that the Palestinian leadership doesn't want them grandstanding on the backs of the Palestinians. Bin Laden is increasingly irrelevant. In the new audiotape (note: not videotape) attributed to him, he accuses Obama of failing to honor his pledge to end the wars. But in fact Obama only pledged to get out of Iraq, and there is every reason to believe that he will do so. Al-Qaida knows that that step will virtually drain its support and recruiting ability (only 4 percent of Arabs say they care deeply about Afghanistan).

In an ominous development for Afghanistan, presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has accused incumbent President Hamid Karzai of using state resources to engineer the stealing of the Aug. 20 presidential election, accusing Karzai of treason. Abdullah said that Karzai bribed tribal elders between $4,000 and $8,000 each to throw the election to Karzai. Abdullah is likely stealing a page from Mir Husain Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the losers in the Iranian presidential elections, who refused to accept the officially announced results and who alleged that the election was fixed in favor of incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Whereas the result of this dispute in Iran was that hundreds of thousands of mostly peaceful demonstrators repeatedly gathered in the streets until brutally repressed, in Afghanistan protests are likely to be rather more violent.

I think it just got substantially less likely that the West will be able to get Karzai and Abdullah to form some sort of national unity government together.

Abdullah wants there to be a runoff election, which likely will not be necessary by current rules, which require it only if no candidate receives at least 50 precent of the vote. But Abdullah believes that the votes that put Karzai up to 54 percent were at least in part fraudulent and the result of vote-buying with state monies. A runoff is also becoming difficult to hold unless it is scheduled very soon, because winter snows will limit the mobility of much of the population until the spring. But the Independent Electoral Commission is warning that a complete count of the first round may still be weeks away. For Afghanistan to be without a president all winter and spring could be disastrous, not only for the country but also for the Obama administration's military strategy.

CBS has video on the ongoing electoral crisis:

Even generally pro-Western Pakistani newspaper editors are accusing Western politicians who are defending the legitimacy of the election process in Afghanistan of living in another universe.

Meanwhile, Deirdre Tynan at Eurasia.net argues that the increasing dependence of the U.S. and NATO on supply routes coming down from Central Asia into northern Afghanistan has helped destabilize the north, especially Kunduz province, which earlier had been relatively calm. The hijacking of fuel trucks and the subsequent German-ordered U.S. airstrike on the trucks in Kunduz all stemmed from the turn of the U.S. to the northern supply routes. I am alarmed by her suggestion that for the U.S. to depend ever more heavily on Central Asian routes for supplies could impel the anti-government militants to begin hitting Tajikistan, Uzbekistan,  etc. That is, the Afghanistan war effort could eventually create a new silk road, in the form of a highway of death that destabilizes the whole region.

Eight years after 9/11, why remain in Afghanistan?

The UN ambassador gives Salon the administration's explanation

On the anniversary of 9-11, a top Obama administration official provided little more than the attacks themselves eight years ago as a reason for continuing the war in Afghanistan. UN Ambassador Susan Rice referenced the anniversary of the attacks as a reminder of why the administration remains committed to U.S. efforts there.

“We have a very crucial stake in Afghanistan,” Rice told reporters at a breakfast Friday. She noted the anniversary of the attacks, “If we need any reminder,” of the rational for the war there. And she insisted the United States must “deny a safe haven” to al-Qaida there and in Pakistan, describing the administration’s strategies for the two countries as intertwined.

The Obama administration is considering increasing U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan beyond the additional 21,000 troops Obama has already ordered to Afghanistan. The New York Times reported Friday on cold feet among some Democrats, including Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, R-Mich.

Salon asked Rice during the breakfast why the deny-the-safe-haven argument still works in 2009, since al-Qaida has essentially left Afghanistan and there are many other countries where al-Qaida could operate. Rice responded, “The crucial difference is that Afghanistan and Pakistan … have been and remain a place” where the terror group has sought refuge. She noted the porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, where al-Qaida has holed up since the initial U.S. invasion in late 2001.

Russia helps the U.S. in Afghanistan

As U.S. allies look for the exit, Russia, perhaps because of problems with Afghan heroin at home, gets in deeper Video

Jonathan Landay of McClatchy reports as an eyewitness on the guerrilla attack in Kunar Province on an Afghan Army expedition to Ganjgal village that killed 4 U.S. marine trainers. AFP says that 10 Iraqi army personnel and one policeman were killed and ten others wounded. Landay's powerful, Hemingwayesque account of the ambush reveals the flinty violence and casual betrayal that beset the U.S./NATO mission in those godforsaken hills. The Ganjgal elders whom the Afghan army personnel asked for consultations on allowing the establishment of a government police station may have tipped the Taliban; or the tip may have come from one of the Afghan officers, serving as a double agent. We saw hundreds of such incidents in Vietnam, and for the same reasons -- nationalism trumps foreign intervention. Landay himself was clearly in severe danger of his life, so this account was bought at dire risk; I've been interviewed by him in the past and want to express my relief that he escaped harm, though of course the deaths incurred by the expedition are deeply regrettable.

There was also a bombing attack outside a NATO office at Kabul Airport that killed 2 civilians and wounded several others. France24 has video:

The USG Open Source Center also translates an article from Afghan Islamic Press for September 8, 2009: "Baghlan Province security forces launched an operation against the Taleban in the Dand Ghori area of Pol-e Khumri District last night. In connection with the incident, the governor of Baghlan Province, Mohammad Akram Barakzai, told Afghan Islamic Press that a policeman had been killed and 16 others, including the director of the anti-terrorism forces, injured in the operation. He also said that casualties had been inflicted on the Taleban, but said that he had no exact details about the numbers of casualties." Reuters says that 12 Taliban died in the fighting, and that the Afghan police casualties were from a roadside bomb that hit them when they were returning.

For the cost of the Afghanistan war and the way various funds are being used, see Tom Englehardt's essay at Tomdispatch.com, "Afghanistan by the Numbers," which is extremely useful for pulling together in one place a series of key statistics.

As the security situation continued to be fragile in the Pashtun areas of the country, an incipient electoral crisis sharpened. There are two electoral commissions operating in Afghanistan, a wholly local and a partially international one. The local one, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) of Afghanistan, announced Tuesday that with 90 percent of ballots counted, incumbent President Hamid Karzai now has 54% of the votes, enough to allow him to avoid a second-round run-off against his chief rival, Abdullah Abdullah. But the other body, the United Nations-supported Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) (which has Afghan members but the head of which is a Canadian), clearly was disturbed at the IEC announcement and it ordered the IEC to conduct a recount and to throw out clearly fraudulent ballots.

In essence, the two electoral commissions have locked horns, and if the local body gets its way, Karzai may well be declared the winner hands-down. The UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission has the authority to order recounts, but it is probably too under-staffed and under-funded to make its objections stick. If the IEC declares for Karzai, he may well keep his job because of inertia (see: next-door Iran). On the other hand, the EEC's objections really could lead to a massive recount of over 5 million ballots, which might delay a firm result for several months.

VOA explains the controversy:

About 5,720,000 votes have been counted, with the IEC identifying only 169,317 as invalid (for various reasons). In contrast, the Electoral Complaints Commission believes that there are many more fraudulent ballots yet to be so declared (perhaps hundreds of thousands)-- so many, in fact, as likely to deprive Karzai of outright victory if they were all thrown out.

Bruce Riedel of Brookings has urged that a run-off election be held whatever the final vote count, just to reassure the public that the election has a legitimate outcome. But I don't know of any candidate who would accept such a reversal once having formally been declared the winner (it would have been the fairest thing for Bush to have done in 2000).

Aljazeera English reports on the infighting in the Obama administration over Afghanistan policy, with some officials wanting to expand the war and others wanting to avoid a quagmire.

Aljazeera English also reports on the "executive plan" whereby Washington would like to see an appointive executive to help the president run the country. Anthropologist and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, an also-ran in the presidential election, is being mentioned for the post. Ghani, who recently authored a book on fixing failed states, would be superb, but you worry that his authority and legitimacy would be damaged if he was seen as imposed by the U.S.

Meanwhile, even as many NATO nations have become lukewarm about their involvement in Afghanistan, Russia is proving more helpful to the U.S. now. Russian P.M. Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev are afraid of Taliban militancy fanning the flames of revolt in provinces such as Chechnya. They also fear that Afghanistan's poppy trade is hooking Russian youth on heroin and exacerbating Russia's demographic decline, threatening a further deterioration in its geo-political power. Russia now has about 141 million people, but it was 146 million or more in 1991. Its population is continuing to decline as deaths outstrip births every year, though the rate of decline has slowed. But Medvedev estimates that the country has as many as 2.5 million addicts, 2/3s of them under the age of 30. Afghan heroin is thus in danger of accelerating the population loss again. (Much of the population loss probably has to do with alcohol abuse by men to begin with, though the economic collapse and capitalist "shock therapy" may be implicated, as well). Since Afghanistan is now the source of 85 percent of the world's heroin, and since the poppy-growers thrive in a failed-state environment, the Russian Federation increasingly has an interest in seeing order imposed on Afghanistan and the poppy production slashed.

Russia Today has more on drug addiction and demographics:

Russia's willingness to transship U.S. materiel to Afghanistan is starting to make more sense.

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