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Dick Morris

Really bad stock tips from Dick Morris

How many things does the Fox News commentator get wrong while touting an investment advice newsletter? Let's count
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Dick Morris

Dick Morris, the Fox News commentator, political consultant and alleged foot-fetishist, has a stock tip for you: If you want to be prepared for the upcoming era of Obama "hyperinflation," sign up for Nicholas Vardy's Global Stock Investor newsletter.

Let me give you a stock tip of my own. Don't invest your money on the advice of people who don't understand the English language. Inflation might be a long-run threat, but hyperinflation is not.

The term "hyperinflation," technically speaking, refers to inflation that is completely out-of-control, rising, for example, by at least by 50 percent a month or worse. As Ryan Avent told us a few months ago, Weimar Germany suffered through "a monthly rate of inflation of about 3,000,000 percent" in 1923. That's hyperinflation. Not even the bad old days of the late '70s during Jimmy Carter's presidency (with which Morris makes more than one Obama comparison) qualifies. Inflation was high, by American standards, but not hyper. Avent has it exactly right:

Some even manage to worry about hyperinflation, that is, extremely rapid and uncontrolled increase in the price level. This strikes me as extremely wrongheaded. It fails to place the current American debt-load in any kind of historical context, and more importantly, it posits a world where the Fed wouldn't respond to several years of double-digit annual inflation by raising interest rates. That's just not the world we live in.... An America with rates even close to [that of Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe] is one in which the nation's political institutions have all completely collapsed.

A side note: In a column in early March, when the stock market was testing its post-Obama election lows, Morris warned us about Obama's "coming inflation" and told us that "the stock market has figured out his priorities and is responding accordingly."

As of today, the U.S. stock market looks set for its sixth straight month of gains. Again, not to make too much of Wall Street's froth, but is this the guy you want to take investing tips from? If you did, you certainly missed that rally.

Then there's this:

Obama's stimulus package has failed to accomplish a single positive goal -- but it has raised unemployment to 9.5 percent, ballooned the deficit, driven up interest rates, and is dead certain to trigger Carter-style hyperinflation.

The misuse of the word "hyperinflation" aside, there are at least three other misstatements in that sentence. Interest rates, last I checked, are still extremely low, whether you're looking to refinance your home, or at the yield on a government bond. No matter what you think of the composition of the stimulus, it is absurd to argue that it has "raised" unemployment. Just the money funneled to state and local governments has prevented public-sector layoffs that undoubtedly would have otherwise occurred. Without the stimulus, unemployment would be higher than it is now.

As for ballooning the deficit? According to Bruce Bartlett, a former Treasury official under Ronald Reagan, if you look at the deficit projections from the Congressional Budget Office before Obama took office and calculate what would have happened if McCain had been elected and no stimulus bill had been enacted, you would end up with a budget deficit for 2009 of $1,361 billion.

That's about 14 percent less than the current deficit projection from the Obama administration.

(Another HTWW stock tip: Morris cites a figure of $1.8 trillion for Obama's deficit, which is now out of date  -- the current projection is $1.6 trillion -- as I noted last week. Please, dear readers, don't follow the investment advice of someone who can't be bothered to stay current with the news.)

Dick Morris pretends to be forthright:

Full disclosure: I receive a percentage of each Global Stock Investor subscription sold, but I wouldn't do this if I did not believe in his abilities.

Which I translate as: "I wouldn't do this if I did not believe that I could use partisan fear-mongering to make a buck for myself, at the expense of the Fox News TV audience."

Quote of the day

Dick Morris is not exactly a master of self-awareness

From an interview that the National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez did with former Clinton advisor Dick Morris: 

KJL: Are we witnessing a Clintons comeback?

DM: No. Bill is probably just delighted to be relevant again.

The irony of that statement coming from Morris is just amazing. He's made a fairly lucrative career for himself out of hating both Bill and Hillary Clinton ever since he resigned as campaign manager of then-President Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign when his involvement with a prostitute became public. Really, the fact that the Clintons continue to be relevant is what makes him at all relevant -- especially after he penned a book predicting a 2008 presidential election battle between Hillary Clinton and Condoleezza Rice.

The expertise of Dick Morris

In the New York Post, the former political consulting powerhouse offers some advice to Barack Obama without acknowledging his earlier predictions.

Writing in the New York Post on Sunday, Dick Morris and his wife, Eileen McGann, offered some advice to Barack Obama. "The Clintons' campaign attacks put Obama in a bind," the pair writes. "If he doesn't answer in kind, he's toast.

"But if he does, they'll have forced him off his winning message of hope and change from the bitter politics of the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush eras.

"If they pull him off his game and onto theirs, they can wrest away the Democratic convention victory that he's earned.

"The solution for Obama is clear: Reply in kind, but do it through surrogates."

That left us wondering why Obama would take Morris' advice seriously at this point. Sure, Morris knows the Clintons well, having worked for Bill Clinton on several campaigns, most notably his 1996 reelection campaign, from which Morris resigned after his alleged affair with a prostitute was revealed. And he has made a career out of Clinton hatred ever since.

But the record of Morris' and McGann's predictions about how this particular election cycle would shake out is not a good one. The two coauthored a book, "Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race." On the first page of the first chapter, they depicted Hillary Clinton's presidential inauguration. A page later, they wrote:

[Clinton's] victory is not inevitable. There is one, and only one, figure in America who can stop Hillary Clinton: Secretary of State Condoleezza "Condi" Rice.

Of course, Rice never actually ran for president. And if you believe what Morris and McGann said on Sunday -- that Obama has earned a victory at the Democratic convention -- then their prediction that only Rice could stand in the way of Clinton's election would seem to have been proven wrong.

Is Rush Limbaugh next?

Conservatives fear that Don Imus is the first casualty in a liberal-led media purge to force right-wing talkers off the air.

WASHINGTON -- First they came for Don Imus. And now they'll come for Rush.

At least, that was the fear at the Free Congress Foundation on April 13, where a panel discussion of an ancient broadcasting regulation quickly turned into a discussion of Don Imus and how his firing might portend a similar fate for some of the right's best-known media personalities. In the absence of any compelling evidence, participants in the latest of the conservative think tank's occasional Next Conservatism Forum series managed to convince themselves that the Fairness Doctrine, a rule that was scrapped by the Federal Communications Commission 20 years ago, was poised for a comeback, and was about to become a weapon in a liberal jihad against the right wing's freedom of speech.

In fact, the prominent conservatives, addressing a crowd of 30 on the ground floor of a Washington row house, described what sounded like a conspiracy. Panelist Ken Blackwell, formerly Ohio's secretary of state and the Republican candidate for governor last fall, said Imus was "not a conservative" and that "the left has sacrificed one of their own to give them a platform to go after true conservative talk show hosts." Cliff Kincaid, of the conservative media watchdog Accuracy in Media, said the Imus firing had been a revelation. "It wasn't exactly clear to me how [liberals] intended to bring back the Fairness Doctrine, but I think now with the Imus affair, we know ... [And it's a] short leap from firing Imus to going after Rush Limbaugh."

Established in 1949, the Fairness Doctrine was an FCC regulation that required broadcasters to give balance to opposing viewpoints in any opinion programming. Its abolition by the FCC during the Reagan administration is widely credited with making the explosion of conservative talk radio possible.

With the return of the Democrats to power in Congress, conservatives have become concerned that the Fairness Doctrine might be on its way back. William S. Lind, director of the Free Congress Foundation's Center for Cultural Conservatism and moderator of the April 13 panel discussion, said the choice of topics had been occasioned by an "emergency" -- the Fairness Doctrine's seemingly imminent return.

But fear of its return isn't restricted to the Free Congress Foundation. Since Imus' firing, conservative pundits have been painting a picture of an entire ideological community under siege.

In an article April 13, Byron York, White House correspondent for the conservative National Review, asked the question, "What's next for the activists who called for Don Imus' head," then answered himself, "Two words: Fairness Doctrine." York's colleague at the National Review, radio host Mark Levin, wrote a post in which he said that "there is now a campaign underway ... to force conservative talk show hosts from radio ... It appears we have a rather sleazy effort afoot to silence the one broadcast venue the Left can't control." Attributing this effort to liberal media watchdog Media Matters, Levin linked to conservative blog Sweetness & Light -- Sweetness & Light, which wrote that Media Matters president and CEO David Brock "jumps on any chance to try to control free speech in this country." It added that "if Media Matters has its way the only people who will be allowed to use the public airwaves will be Messrs. Brock, [George] Soros, [Noam] Chomsky, Ms. Hillary Clinton and other officially approved Democrats." On NewsBusters, the blog of conservative media watchdog Media Research Center, Dan Riehl wondered, "Does Get-Imus movement foretell Fairness Doctrine reinstatement?"

But at the forum, conservatives were already thinking of ways to fight back. From the audience, Wes Vernon, a former broadcast journalist and now a conservative commentator, said he believes "the best way to combat this is public outrage. Al Sharpton knows how to stir it up, Jesse Jackson knows how to stir it up ... There ought to be some kind of effort to raise money to put ads on the air and in the newspapers alerting people about this."

Dick Morris, the political consultant and pundit who managed Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign, said it came down to language.

"Let's try to replace the word 'Fairness Doctrine,'" he told the audience. "Vocabulary is so important in politics." Morris gave as examples the phrases "right to work" and "prevailing wage," and jokingly offered a free trip to Hoboken, N.J. for the person who could come up with a new formulation for the debate. Morris himself seconded Lind's suggestion that the Fairness Doctrine be rebranded the "Unfairness Doctrine," and added that the current absence of any regulation ought to be called the "Freedom Doctrine." In an interview with Salon after the discussion, Morris explained that when searching for language like this, he's looking for a "positive message" to deliver to voters, and that he rejected an audience member's suggestion of the "Hypocrisy Doctrine" because "the concept of hypocrisy is, 'I'm admitting that I'm bad, but you're bad too.'"

At the forum, Morris actively cheered the firing of Imus. "'Thank God' is my reaction," he said. He accused the radio host of making "bigotry and ethnic hatred entertaining and fun" and cited several examples of previous racially charged statements Imus had made. Morris added that he hoped the incident would be "part of a revolution in manners ... [that] signals the death knell for ethnic jokes in public."

Talking to Salon afterward, however, Morris drew a distinction between Imus and people like Limbaugh. "I think there's a vast difference between humor that seeks to demean, or rhetoric that seeks to demean," Morris said, "and issue positions that happen to be against the views of a certain community."

Kincaid drew a similar distinction in an interview with Salon, saying he favored the FCC's monitoring of broadcasts for sexual indecency, but that he would not support similar measures against racist speech.

"Then you're getting into political speech," Kincaid said, "and what one defines as, quote, 'racism.' How do you define the term? I don't want the FCC to define that."

Indeed, much of the panel seemed of two minds -- on the one hand happy that an "indecent" voice was gone from the airwaves, and on the other worried about what Imus' firing portends for conservative free speech and concerned that liberals are trying to use the power of the state to silence them.

"This is very much an issue of censorship, and it's interesting, isn't it, that hate speech is only hate speech when it's directed against the carefully designated victims' groups of cultural Marxism," Lind said. " You can say all the hate speech you want on radio or television directed at Germans or Swedes ... This is our old opponent, cultural Marxism, doing what Marxists do -- trying to use the power of the state to make it illegal to disagree with their ideology."

Blackwell, for his part, said liberals are trying to use the Fairness Doctrine to accomplish what they could not in a free market, and asserted that liberals are "terrible" at making talk radio. "If liberals think it is just too hard to compete with the Sean Hannitys of the world," Blackwell said, "then they should focus on what they do best -- make ice cream."

The panelists tried to assemble proof to support their Fairness Doctrine fears. They mentioned Sharpton's call for the FCC to step in and his vow that this was only the beginning of the fight; they pointed to the Huffington Post's listing old examples of controversial statements by Limbaugh and Fox News host Bill O'Reilly. There were also the ritual invocations of favorite boogeyman George Soros. Kincaid repeatedly referred to Media Matters as Soros funded, and a pamphlet and fundraising appeal that Accuracy in Media distributed at the forum talks about a dark "conspiracy" that puts "in jeopardy ... all of the progress that conservatives have made in the media over the last several decades."

But perhaps conservatives are projecting a little bit. Though there are media organizations on the left -- some funded by Soros -- that have called for its return, the evidence for the Fairness Doctrine's imminent reappearance is not overwhelming. Free Congress Foundation panelists warned that a Democratic president would be able to appoint FCC commissioners who could unilaterally reinstate the rule. They didn't mention, however, that it hadn't happened in the eight years of the Clinton presidency.

Return of the Fairness Doctrine via an act of Congress isn't exactly looming either. An effort to bring it back died in the House in 1993, when Democrats controlled both chambers and the presidency. Fourteen years later, the law has its proponents in both chambers, but they're not the sort of legislators who are known for corralling veto-proof majorities -- Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla., Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., among others.

Meanwhile, those who could realistically be the catalysts for such legislation don't seem to have much interest. Reached April 13, a spokesman for Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., who chairs one of the relevant House subcommittees, didn't know what the Fairness Doctrine was. In the Clinton era, by contrast, Markey had been a key proponent of the doctrine's return.

Jim Manley, a spokesman for Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., the Senate majority leader, dismissed conservatives' concerns.

"I'm not aware that there's any kind of debate about the Fairness Doctrine," Manley told Salon. "To be honest, I barely even know what it is ... [Sen. Reid] is not contemplating anything like that. It truly is not on his radar screen."

Exiling Dick Morris

If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, the political pundit pledges to leave the United States.

Is Dick Morris calling Hillary Clinton out?

In an appearance on Fox News' "Hannity & Colmes," the political strategist turned pundit vowed he'd flee the country if Sen. Clinton wins the Democratic nomination for president in 2008, with Barack Obama as her running mate, according to NewsMax.com. If anything, that pledge, surely, will only make Clinton more determined to run.

Morris managed Bill Clinton's successful 1996 reelection campaign until he was embroiled in a toe-sucking sex scandal with a prostitute. Since then, he has broken ties with the Clintons, and created a cottage industry out of critiquing them in his column in the New York Post and on Fox News. His Hillary hating has even included writing a book-length rebuttal of her memoir "Living History," as well as another book imagining a presidential election matchup between her and Condoleezza Rice.

But as much as Morris professes to be horrified at the idea of Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, he claims not to think that Barack Obama would make a better candidate. On Fox, he dubbed the U.S. senator from Illinois the "best thing that's ever happened to Hillary Clinton. Because he can't win. You think about the guy for five minutes and you're not gonna vote for him." Yet, he added: "Obama's in fact a better first than [Clinton] is. First black is better than first woman, in politics."

Perhaps this threat to go into exile is a Dick Morris version of a double-dog dare. Obviously, he'd like nothing better than to see a Clinton-Obama Democratic ticket, if he's promising Hillary Clinton and the rest of us that he'll leave the country if it comes to pass.

A rift among the Hillary haters

Hey, Dick Morris, jealous much?

"The Truth About Hillary" hits the bookstores today, and the right is already soaking up every last salacious detail contained therein. But there's one usually reliable Hillary hater who doesn't seem so thrilled with the new book: Dick Morris, whose own anti-Hillary book, "Rewriting History," will have to slide down the shelves to make way for Ed Klein's new smear job.

Morris, a former advisor to Bill Clinton, says in his column that Klein's accusations about the Clintons hit "below the belt" and "do not belong in the public dialogue." "I am no defender of Hillary Rodham Clintons, to put it mildly," Morris says. "But the recent charges in Ed Kleins book to the effect that she is a closet homosexual or that Bill raped her and that this act triggered Chelseas conception are as crazy as the list that was circulating around of the 20 or so people the Clintons allegedly had killed."

"Crazy" and "below the belt" -- but maybe true. At least that's the impression Morris seems to want to leave with his readers. "How can anyone say if the charges are true?" Morris asks, then lists Klein's credentials and says that he wouldn't have written what he's written unless he had "some substantiation." The real problem, Morris says, is that the most outrageous charges in the Klein book distract from what he considers the real truth about Hillary -- the "truth" he already set forth in his own book: "There is enough evidence of Hillarys penchant for deception without having to dig through her private life," Morris says.

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