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Clinton's delay in making a final decision is a politically touchy issue. New York Democrats want her to make up her mind fairly quickly, to give other Democrats time to raise money if she decides not to run, in a race that could cost up to $20 million. Rep. Nita Lowey of Westchester County has declared she will run for the Democratic Senate nomination if Clinton does not. To keep her options open, but avoid hurting Lowey, Clinton and her supporters explored the possibility of establishing a campaign fund that could be used for either candidate, but they could not do that legally. So Clinton offered to come to New York to raise funds for Lowey if she does not run herself.

Sources say Clinton has been encouraged by a sharp decline in the political fortunes of her most likely Republican opponent, Giuliani, in the wake of controversy over the New York Police Department's killing of African street vendor Amadou Diallo in February. A March 28 New York Daily News poll found the mayor's popularity has "plunged to an all-time low" in the aftermath of the Diallo shooting, when Giuliani defended the police department and treated Diallo's family and supporters callously. His approval rating is now only 40 percent, down a whopping 20 points from just six months ago. Seventy-three percent of those polled objected to his criticism of the police protests, which he dismissed as "silly" publicity stunts.

Even more worrisome for Giuliani, he may now face political opposition from former supporters and fellow Republicans, regardless of what Clinton decides to so. The mayor's relations with Republican Gov. George Pataki have been strained ever since Giuliani supported incumbent Democrat Mario Cuomo over Pataki in 1994. The mayor has also angered other party faithful with his vocal support of immigration and unfettered abortion rights, and his backing of President Clinton during the recent impeachment crisis.

Now Republicans are striking back. Pataki was among the scores of critics who lashed out at the mayor's handling of the Diallo killing. The New York Times reported recently that Pataki and Alphonse D'Amato are tacitly backing Long Island Republican Rep. Rick Lazio, whose campaign war chest was approaching a hefty $2 million by the end of last year, in a possible primary challenge to Giuliani for the Senate seat. Lazio thinks his popularity among more traditional Republican voters could lead to a primary upset.

Giuliani's appeal as a candidate in a general election matchup is based largely on his strong crossover appeal in the city of New York, which is overwhelmingly Democratic. But bipartisan support is useless in a closed party primary, and Lazio, also a moderate Republican, is considered a stronger candidate in the New York suburbs, which typically turn out more Republican voters.

But Clinton's poll numbers have dropped, too, since she began toying publicly with her candidacy. According to the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, Clinton enjoyed an 11-point lead over Giuliani in a head-to-head match in January, with the support of 52 percent of those polled. By March 26, Clinton's margin had dwindled to a little more than 2 points, with only 48 percent of those polled. Other polls indicated a similar tightening of the race over the same period.

New York pollsters say the slippage is natural. "Certainly everything's looking much more competitive as the [election] draws closer," says Lee Miringoff of the Marist Institute. Early polls showing Clinton doing well in upstate New York, a Republican stronghold, have given way to more typical upstate Republican support for Guiliani, downstate Democratic support for Clinton. But the polls, which survey registered voters, can't measure a potential surge in the polls that a Clinton-Giuliani race would likely inspire. "People have raised the possibility that she will energize the Democratic base -- minorities and urban voters -- which doesn't like Giuliani," Miringoff says.

Some political tea-leaf readers saw signs this week that Clinton had decided not to run, when she said she would not attend a New York State Democratic Party dinner scheduled for April 29. But New York Democrats cautioned against reading too much into that decision. "She had never been confirmed at the dinner, she was only invited," one official said. "And I think she could not attend that dinner as merely the first lady. It would have been like a coronation, a political coming out, and she wasn't ready for that."
salon.com | April 16, 1999

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