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What next for East Timor?
Experts debate what the United States should do to stop the carnage.

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By Fiona Morgan

Sept. 9, 1999 | The tiny island region of East Timor, rocked by anti-independence militia violence last week, has been the site of terror and bloodshed for a quarter-century. Only slightly larger than Connecticut, East Timor was a Portuguese colony until 1975, when it was invaded by Indonesia just as it was gaining independence. It has been torn by rebellion and conflict ever since. But because it has been closed to foreign journalists since the occupation by Indonesia began -- a few reporters have been able to move in and out over the years -- there has been little international interest in the crisis there until now.

Officially, the United States and the United Nations have never recognized Indonesia's rule in the province. This year, in a move to win confidence in his promised democratic reforms, President B.J. Habibie offered East Timorese the chance to vote on whether to be an independent state or "autonomous" under Indonesian rule. Despite threats from the military and a ban on campaigning by independence advocates, on Aug. 30 nearly 99 percent of registered voters dropped ballots, with 78 percent of them voting for independence. Though the election was amazingly free of violence, in the past week anti-independence militias have terrorized the Timorese. Scattered reports tell of killings, looting and massive destruction. Bishop Belo, the Catholic leader of the province and a well-known advocate for independence, has been evacuated.

In response to militia violence, Habibie's government proclaimed a state of "martial law." Yet many observers say the Indonesian military itself is the problem, that its soldiers and military leaders are working with militia groups to gather Timorese and interrogate, transport or kill them, and that Habibie has no control of military forces. An estimated 200,000 Timorese -- one quarter of the population -- have been relocated or killed since the violence began.

Now the international community must decide what, if anything, to do to stop the bloodshed. While the United Nations considers whether to send peacekeeping forces into the region, neighboring Australia says it is ready to deploy 2,000 troops. U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen says the United States has no plans to send peacekeepers. However, President Clinton on Thursday suspended future relations with the Indonesian military. U.S. support for the Indonesian military has been in place since the reign of Suharto. In his statement, delivered to Indonesian Gen. Wiranto, Clinton threatened economic sanctions if the violence did not end, and said Indonesia "must invite the international community" to assist in restoring security.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank must also consider whether to cut the billions of dollars in financial aid they have been sending to the Indonesian government in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. But again, the United States is reluctant to risk harming its relationship with Indonesia and with Habibie's tenuous reform effort by joining the push for sanctions.

A new, reformist assembly is scheduled to convene in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta in November, and one of its agenda items is the ratification of the vote in East Timor. Some experts fear that violence in Dili, the East Timorese capital, is only a precursor of the military's coming effort to prevent the assembly. And reports are surfacing that Habibie, a civilian leader, is likely to face a military coup at any moment.

Salon News asked four East Asian experts what the world community should do about the fate of East Timor and the future of Indonesia.

. Next page | Stop training the Indonesian military



 

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