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What next for East Timor? | page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Ben Anderson, professor of government and Asian studies at Cornell University: The Indonesian military relies for its information on a very expensive network of informers and spies, but they seem to have forgotten that informers and spies have a habit of reporting what they think that their superiors want to hear. I'm told that prior to the election, all of the information coming into military intelligence was reassuring to the government that the autonomy proposal -- that is, no independence -- would be accepted by over 60 percent of the vote. That was why the vote was allowed to proceed without any serious trouble. It was an extraordinarily stupid mistake, but the military can be very stupid about these things.

Now that this has been a huge blunder and they've lost the vote by a huge margin, they're trapped by these commitments that they never thought they would have to live up to. From the Indonesian military's point of view, the war in East Timor has cost them more casualties than any war they've ever been in. Many people in the army feel angry at the idea that all the sacrifices should have been for nothing, rather like the United States in Vietnam.

One thing you need to bear in mind: the military's financial situation. It's been in very bad shape since the fall of Suharto. The collapse of the economy means that the military has lost the kind of resources it needs to retain discipline. And the military is out of the control of the civilian government. I know from people that I've spoke to in Jakarta who have reasonably good access to meetings of the cabinet that some of the generals in the cabinet endorsed the idea that Malaysian and Australian troops might be a good idea, but this was opposed strongly by the present military commander, Gen. Wiranto. This shows that the military is very far from united on what they should have done, should be doing now and should do in the future.

A lot of Indonesian people are of course upset that East Timor voted to leave Indonesia. Middle-class people are extremely embarrassed by the terrible beating that Indonesia's international image has taken. It's a very nationalist country and one that at no time in the past 50 years would have agreed to have international troops upon Indonesian soil. And yet I talked to people in Jakarta last night and they said they thought people would actually be relieved to have United Nations troops come in. Because the television-owning population of Indonesia has been watching for the past two weeks what their own military have been doing. It's all been on the international news media. This is a big shock for a lot of people, the absolutely savage way that people have behaved. The military's image in Indonesia, which has been pretty poor anyway for the past two or three years, has taken another deep nosedive.

The atmosphere is getting much worse in Jakarta. There have been plenty of rumors of a possible coup to get rid of Habibie but I don't think that is going to happen. But the currency is dropping. Sanctions may create riot situations in Java, which would mean the federal government in Indonesia comes close to collapse. What other nations want to do is find a line between disciplining the Indonesian military and undermining the reform of the civilian regime.

One consideration would be to stop the training of the Indonesian military, which would break the connection between the military and Pentagon and would also send a very strong signal that even the U.S. military itself is unhappy with what the Indonesian military is doing.

. Next page | Send troops now!



 

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