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The truth about Texas school reform
Has George W. Bush made his state's education system a model for the nation?
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[10/29/99]

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"The scenario we are showing you is fiction," Koppel intoned gravely. "The expectation that it will happen is real."

The "Nightline" set was transformed into a Strangeloveian war room for the five-part "Biowar" docudrama, complete with a streaming banner that tallied the "dead" in real time. By week's end, the toll stood at 50,000.

Koppel's point, of course, was that "Biowar" -- or something close to it -- is going to happen in America sooner or later. Cynics will say "Biowar" was nothing more than a ratings stunt; but if so, the "Nightline" producers sure know what turns on their audience. Over the last decade, terrorism has slowly been filling the vacuum in the public imagination that was created when the Soviets checked out of the Kremlin, leaving the long-occupied villain role up for grabs.

Terrorism has been on the front pages for much of this decade, especially in the past year -- from the bombing of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania to the FBI's decision in late July to ban tours of its headquarters building after Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden threatened to blow it up.

In a comprehensive public opinion poll conducted last year, respondents cited terrorism as the No. 1 danger the United States faces from abroad, followed closely by the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons. An unscientific search of the Internet Movie Database indicates that even more films have been made about terrorists in the 1990s than there were about Soviet intrigue in the 1980s.

Experts disagree on whether an attack like the one "Nightline" depicted is likely. Optimists and doomsayers alike must draw their conclusions from the same swirling muck of fear, politics, pop culture and speculation that fuels the news media.

"The difficulty we have, with the possibility of terrorists using chemical or biological weapons, is we don't have a validated threat," explained RAND terrorism expert Richard Jenkins. "We don't have any evidence that any particular terrorist organization is planning to carry out an attack."

Former CIA Director John Deutch tried to put the threat in context: "The likelihood is high compared to a nuclear event, and high compared to the likelihood of general nuclear war during the Cold War, which was a catastrophic enough threat ... to shape our security architecture."

Right around the time "Biowar's" imaginary virus was claiming its first victims, I happened to be browsing through counterterrorism equipment at a conference sponsored by the Jane's Information Group. I peered at a startled-looking mannequin lying in an airtight decontamination stretcher. I compared auto-injecting syringes and fountain-pen-shaped cartridges loaded with emergency vaccines, and tested radio attachments for gas masks.

I spent the better part of an hour learning about a French-made hazmat (hazardous materials) suit from an energetic salesman. "Business must be good," I offered, looking at the variety of equipment his firm distributed -- mostly military gear customized for civilian use.

He responded that the United States has millions of potential "first responders," from police and fire personnel to emergency medical technicians: "Two to three years from now, our domestic hazmat response teams are going to be better equipped than the military."

They may have to be, and not just because of a possible biowar. As terrorists continue to experiment with small-scale chemical and biological weapons, police and hazmat teams will have to recognize an attack in progress and know how to respond. Unlike explosives, germs and poisons do the worst of their damage silently.

Particularly in the case of a gas attack, a quick response is critical -- experts speak of a "golden hour" in which intervention can save lives.

When a truck bomb exploded at the Federal Building in Oklahoma City, for example, emergency crews never checked to see if the device had been laced with a chemical agent. That blunder could have had lethal consequences.

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