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Tudjman's HDZ party has been losing popularity in recent years, and was expected to lose parliamentary elections in January. But the Croatian political opposition is fragmented, and analysts say it is not clear if the opposition will be able to decide on a single candidate to run in presidential elections against HDZ's candidate.

Western governments favor Croatia's foreign minister, Mate Granic, a member of the HDZ, who is nonetheless considered a moderate. Granic faces opposition from both hard-liners within the ranks of the HDZ, as well as from two major opposition political blocks. Recent polls show one opposition coalition made up of the Liberal Party and the Croatian Peoples Party drawing 35-38 percent of the votes, HDZ drawing 25-30 percent of the vote, and a four-party opposition coalition drawing some 10-14 percent of the vote. An extreme right party, the Croatian Party of Rights, is expected to draw 5 percent of the vote.

Analysts say HDZ has dropped in the polls because Croats are frustrated with the country's stagnant economy and with the party's corruption.

"The most important issues are economic," said the western diplomat formerly posted to Zagreb. "Unemployment is a big one, pensions are a big one. Corruption hurt the HDZ. The average wage in Croatia is just $400 per month, but the economy is smaller than it was in 1991."

Croatia's capital city Zagreb shows how close and yet far away the country is from achieving its dream of becoming "Europe." Zagreb's surface beauty and prosperity -- freshly painted Austro-Hungarian architecture, balconies with fresh flowers, new Mercedes and Western automobiles and Viennese cafes full of well-dressed elderly, mask the fact that most Croats have very little disposable income.

Once Croatia earned millions of dollars from Western European tourists attracted to its splendid Adriatic coastline and medieval cities of Dubrovnik and Split. But the wars that plagued the Balkans have almost destroyed Croatia's tourism industry, even as they have entirely restored Dubrovnik. This past spring, NATO bombed Montenegro, just down the coast from Dubrovnik, keeping tourists away for another summer.

One of the most hopeful opportunities presented by the end of the hard-line Tudjman era is that it will help bring moderates to power not just in Zagreb but also in neighboring Serbia.

"With both Tudjman and Milosevic around, it has been a hard slog," conceded the Western diplomat involved with trying to bring ethnic groups together in Bosnia. With Tudjman gone, "we want to isolate Milosevic and work for his potential removal."

"Tudjman had two dreams," former U.S. ambassador to Zagreb Peter Galbraith told the BBC Monday. "One for an independent Croatia with all its territory; the second for Croatia to be accepted as part of Europe. In his life, Tudjman achieved the first goal. His death will make possible the second dream."

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